July 2022 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

Boy, I love what the CFSv2 is showing for the majority of the central/southern plains from mid july into mid-Aug...is the worst of the summer heat the next 10 days or so for TX/OK...E TX may be the exception (unfortunately)...

 

 

[Andie]

It was sheer luck if you got rain yesterday.    We had some nice clouds and shade however.   Today will begin a run of 100’s.  
 

[Tom]

Things might be firing up around dinner time for the northern burbs and put a damper on Fireworks displays...#trainingstorms #atmosphericfireworks 

[Iceresistance]

8 minutes ago, Tom said:

Boy, I love what the CFSv2 is showing for the majority of the central/southern plains from mid july into mid-Aug...is the worst of the summer heat the next 10 days or so for TX/OK...E TX may be the exception (unfortunately)...

 

 

The last map gave me some hope that we may get some storms to keep the drought from coming here.

[bud2380]

Looks like the storms I drove through in eastern Colorado and western Nebraska last night are moving into Cedar Rapids and Iowa City areas now. We had a brief extremely heavy downpour in North Platte last night, which is where we stayed the night. We were in Colorado, got to go to the Summit of Pikes Peak. What a beautiful part of the country. 

[CentralNebWeather]

9 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Looks like the storms I drove through in eastern Colorado and western Nebraska last night are moving into Cedar Rapids and Iowa City areas now. We had a brief extremely heavy downpour in North Platte last night, which is where we stayed the night. We were in Colorado, got to go to the Summit of Pikes Peak. What a beautiful part of the country. 

Give me a wave as you drive by the Holdrege/Elm Creek exit on I80 just west of Kearney. We had close to an inch in the area last night with incredible lighting and thunder. 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Looks like you got a good one!  How much did you end up with?

Looks like just under 1”. Will help during the next two days of 100’s. Hopefully more chances Wednesday through Friday. Going out now to mow the yard. With a 72 dew, the water should be running off of me. 

[Clinton]

@TomReed Timmer thinks there could be a sneaky tornado setup tonight.

LIVE SLEEPER TORNADO setup from Madison, WI through Chicago area this July 4!

Live emergency update this July 4 holiday with a tornado threat possible this afternoon/evening across central/southern WI into northern Illinois. A complex of showers is pushing out of Iowa this morning and the atmosphere is forecast to destabilize behind this feature. Supercells could ride ESE along the outflow boundary/warm front left in its wake.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Looks like the storms I drove through in eastern Colorado and western Nebraska last night are moving into Cedar Rapids and Iowa City areas now. We had a brief extremely heavy downpour in North Platte last night, which is where we stayed the night. We were in Colorado, got to go to the Summit of Pikes Peak. What a beautiful part of the country. 

Pikes Peak is so beautiful and the road up the mountain can be breath taking.  I was a kid at the time when I went and got sick on the way up but I remember vividly the sharp drop offs on the sides of the road.  Good memories.

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.44" from a batch of rain that moved through eastern Iowa late this morning.  Once again (like the big event a couple weekends ago), the heaviest rain tracked just south of Cedar Rapids.  1-2" totals are widespread from the CR airport to Iowa City.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS doesn’t look like a typically dry July we are used to. This would be amazing. 

[Bellona]

1.7 in the gauges this morning. Looking like there could be a lot more before the week is through. Crops should like it though as long as we don't get crazy amounts.

[Phil]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Boy, I love what the CFSv2 is showing for the majority of the central/southern plains from mid july into mid-Aug...is the worst of the summer heat the next 10 days or so for TX/OK...E TX may be the exception (unfortunately)...

 

 

Unfortunately I don’t think that will verify. Would expect almost the opposite pattern in August this year.

[hawkstwelve]

Happy 4th of July everyone! I sincerely hope as our country seemingly turns further and further apart that we can find some how, some way to unite and come together before it's too late.

It's currently 95 with a DP of 76 and a HI of 106 under partly cloudy skies. Way too hot and muggy to do much out there. Fireworks will have to wait for later tonight.

God bless the USA

[OmahaSnowFan]

Had .86" of rain overnight last night. Now 95 with a heat index of 105.

Unfortunately, I won't be able to partake in many activities this evening as I tested positive for COVID this morning. Pretty mild symptoms so far that started last night.

[Bellona]

Just now, OmahaSnowFan said:

Had .86" of rain overnight last night. Now 95 with a heat index of 105.

Unfortunately, I won't be able to partake in many activities this evening as I tested positive for COVID this morning. Pretty mild symptoms so far that started last night.

Oh no! Stay cool and feel better  

[Grizzcoat]

New World Record Heat index at LeMars,IA 

 

[Clinton]

The roast is underway, it's going to be hot for fireworks tonight.

Whiteman Air Force Base (KSZL)

Lat: 38.73°NLon: 93.55°WElev: 869ft.

Fair

96°F

36°C

Humidity	52%
Wind Speed	SW 16 G 22 mph
Barometer	29.90 in (1011.8 mb)
Dewpoint	75°F (24°C)
Visibility	10.00 mi
Heat Index	109°F (43°C)
Last update	4 Jul 3:56 pm CDT

[Timmy Supercell]

80, 77DP, and the show has started. 

Even though I now live in a warmer climate, this surprisingly isn't my hottest Fourth of July ever. 

[Andie]

They’ve adjusted our temps - up. 
103-104 the next 7 days. 
Man, this is rough.  

[james1976]

7 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Had .86" of rain overnight last night. Now 95 with a heat index of 105.

Unfortunately, I won't be able to partake in many activities this evening as I tested positive for COVID this morning. Pretty mild symptoms so far that started last night.

Get well!

[Andie]

90* at 11:30 pm.  
 

Foreshadows a very hot week.

[Phil]

 

[Meatyorologist]

16 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Looks like the storms I drove through in eastern Colorado and western Nebraska last night are moving into Cedar Rapids and Iowa City areas now. We had a brief extremely heavy downpour in North Platte last night, which is where we stayed the night. We were in Colorado, got to go to the Summit of Pikes Peak. What a beautiful part of the country. 

Been up there, also on Mt. Evans. Absolutely insane how far up it goes... Got headaches from the altitude sickness!

Given I've lived at sea level all my life, it's a miracle I didn't feel worse! 

[Tom]

Nature certainly delivered fireworks around here and thankfully it came after most of the fireworks displays.  All in all, great timing and plenty of rain fell.  My area was under the ribbon of training storms last night.  I crashed out early and only woke up briefly to the sound of thunder/lightning.  Pretty much slept through the whole event.  

[Tom]

I stepped outside this morning and its warm and muggy...73F/72F, today will feature the type of day "the air you wear"...Heat Advisory issued and storms should Fire up along the Lake Breeze boundary right around dinner time.  I always enjoy these set ups bc you can literally see the storms bubble up overhead and the majestic beauty of the cumulonimbus clouds that erect high into the atmosphere. 

Glad that the real severe stuff never ended up transpiring but today that could be a different story.  I think hail and winds will be the biggest threat along with Flooding from the training nature.

Out of all the higher rez models, the WRF-ARW2 came the closest to what transpired...most of the models were showing the storms to track north of here.  Earlier in the day yesterday, the model runs had my area in the bullseye and that is what ended up happening.

 

 

0z GEFS...Next 5 days look like this area could be the magnet...

 

0z Euro...

 

 

Looking for relief???  It's coming later this week/weekend for the MW/GL's and east coast...then the rest of our Sub will see a strong Summer time CF penetrate deep into the south Week 2...even into the TX Dome??? @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance

 

[westMJim]

Most of the area finally received a good rain fall. Here in MBY I recorded a total of 0.82” of rain fall in last nights showers and thundershowers. Looks like the official amount at GRR was 0.83” The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 90/62 there was a total of 0.71” of rain fall before midnight the day had 54% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 101 was set in 2012 (note here in MBY I recorded a unofficial high of 108) the record low of 44 was set in 1972. The next few days look to have very typical summer weather with highs in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s

 

[Tom]

Good news into the very LR as the Euro Weeklies are showing the MJO heading into the Null Phase...I haven't paid much attn to the previous forecast runs but yesterday's run is good news with respect to dampening down the potential for large scale heat across the central CONUS.  The CFS/CFSv2 ain't buying a pronounced Heat signal.  I'll take it.

[Clinton]

The humidity is about to get real thick today for KC and points south.  This is the first excessive heat warning of the year for me.  I'll be ready for the pattern change come Sunday. 

[james1976]

I've been up in the TC since Friday. Great weather the entire long weekend. We went out for a great fireworks display last night. It was clear, calm and mid 70s. This morning it is very humid. 70° with a 70 dew and 99% humidity. You can see it in the air.

I also finally got my weather station set up! It's a Davis Vantage Vue. I'm still learning all of its features. I also may try to mount it somewhere else. My fiancee's property has a lot of trees so there's no real ideal place for it. Pretty cool though!

[hawkstwelve]

Today brings the best chance for severe weather that we've had for a while now.

Currently 79 with a DP of 74.

[Bellona]

Dang, this storm in SD means business!

[hawkstwelve]

Some intense looking storms moving into N Central SD.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

The humidity is about to get real thick today for KC and points south.  This is the first excessive heat warning of the year for me.  I'll be ready for the pattern change come Sunday. 

My son is in KC this week with our High School church youth group at the National Evangelical Youth Challenge Conference. He said it is disgustingly humid, using my terms. His cousins live in Shawnee so he knows what the city feels like in the summer. Went to plenty of Royals games and Worlds/Oceans of fun. Supposedly around 4000 there this week in downtown KC. Our youth group is staying at the Downtown Marriot if you know the area. I think the conference is next door to that hotel. 

[tStacsh]

Decent rain last night. .60" recorded at my house.  Not enough.  Hoping we get some more up here, but looking south and then quite dry for awhile again.  

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

My son is in KC this week with our High School church youth group at the National Evangelical Youth Challenge Conference. He said it is disgustingly humid, using my terms. His cousins live in Shawnee so he knows what the city feels like in the summer. Went to plenty of Royals games and Worlds/Oceans of fun. Supposedly around 4000 there this week in downtown KC. Our youth group is staying at the Downtown Marriot if you know the area. I think the conference is next door to that hotel. 

It's nasty the only thing that helps in a nice breeze.  I may hit 100 tomorrow with due points in the 70s.

[Timmy Supercell]

Had an early t'storm round come through. This one was isolated, but when it was in Ohio it looked like a disorganized line coming towards us. 

There's more coming from behind these storms. I could see this activity cooling the potential maximum high a few degrees.

[Bellona]

What is the general consensus on some of these reporting stations? I mean, if this was actually true..Holy crap. 

[Timmy Supercell]

This all blew up kind of fast. I was expecting there to be a distinctive break between storms and a clearing. Well that ain't happening today. 

[hawkstwelve]

Sounds like things will be taking an interesting turn here soon...

[Phil]

Looks like a bust here today. Lots of crapvection and cloud cover. If anything interesting happens it’ll have to be a nocturnal MCS or some late development along the subsequent shortwave.

Muggy and cloudy, low 80s with dews in the mid-70s.

Edit: Upper 70s dewpoints now. Instant sweat drippage.

[Phil]

27 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Sounds like things will be taking an interesting turn here soon...

Are you on the north or south side of Sioux Falls? Could make a pretty big difference as you’ll be right under the bow head, which often has the most intense conditions but also the sharpest cutoff.

We ended up under the bow head in the 2012 derecho and it delivered 20 minutes of 80-90mph gusts. A bit further north and that was reduced to 60mph.

[hawkstwelve]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Are you on the north or south side of Sioux Falls? Could make a pretty big difference as you’ll be right under the bow head, which often has the most intense conditions but also the sharpest cutoff.

We ended up under the bow head in the 2012 derecho and it delivered 20 minutes of 80-90mph gusts. A bit further north and that was reduced to 60mph.

I'm on the extreme SW edge of the city, right before you head out to the Tea suburb. Crossing my fingers for some solid action. 

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'm on the extreme SW edge of the city, right before you head out to the Tea suburb. Crossing my fingers for some solid action. 

In that case you might be in a good spot. Probably on the northern end of the bow.

[bud2380]

Looks like that derecho in SD means business.  Wind gusts are upwards of 90mph with the highest reports.  

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Looks like that derecho in SD means business.  Wind gusts are upwards of 90mph with the highest reports.  

96mph at Huron Airport.  

[Phil]

This is in the bow head, moving right in @hawkstwelve’s direction.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KHON&hours=72

[Mr Marine Layer]

Just now, Phil said:

This is in the bow head, moving right in @hawkstwelve’s direction.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KHON&hours=72

-0.25 mile visibility?

[Phil]

Huron Airport back up to 90mph. That’s quite impressive.

[Phil]

These little meso-lows are packing the strongest winds. I’ll bet there are gusts over 100mph in there somewhere.