Anti Marine Layer Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 Where's the blue over the PNW? 1 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 SEA with 0.02 and BFI 0.01 this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I am sure we end up with an above average July. It's been relatively cool the first week of the month, but because of the very mild lows, most of us are just barely below average. Won't be as bad as 2021 or 2018 though. A few weeks ago I would have been more open to the possibility of a warmer outcome, not so much now. Though anything is possible. The tropical forcing/GWO is more favorable for western warmth during the first half of the month, and it doesn’t look like it’ll amount to much outside a quick heat spike mid-month (which is at the tail end of the warm subseasonal state, that will be ending ~ 7/20, +/- a few days). Later in July, large scale subsidence envelops the dateline/WPAC and AAM tendency goes negative again. That is a textbook Niña/+NPO look, and is very unlikely to produce a warm outcome in the PNW, absent some fluky wavebreak. And furthermore, each time I’ve anticipated a warm pattern in the PNW this spring/summer, it has underperformed and/or been cut short. Possibly some recency bias on my part, as in recent years, almost every time the MJO crossed the West-Pacific Warm Pool, it had culminated in massive western torching. Where-as this year the WPAC has been relatively submissive. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 More showers incoming. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, Phil said: A few weeks ago I would have been more open to the possibility of a warmer outcome, not so much now. Though anything is possible. The tropical forcing/GWO is more favorable for western warmth during the first half of the month, and it doesn’t look like it’ll amount to much outside a quick heat spike mid-month (which is at the tail end of the warm subseasonal state, that will be ending ~ 7/20, +/- a few days). Later in July, large scale subsidence envelops the dateline/WPAC and AAM tendency goes negative again. That is a textbook Niña/+NPO look, and is very unlikely to produce a warm outcome in the PNW, absent some fluky wavebreak. And furthermore, each time I’ve anticipated a warm pattern in the PNW this spring/summer, it has underperformed and/or been cut short. Possibly some recency bias on my part, as in recent years, almost every time the MJO crossed the West-Pacific Warm Pool, it had culminated in massive western torching. Where-as this year the WPAC has been relatively submissive. Yeah it won't be a hot July, but I am almost certain we will end up above the 30 year average. Except probably not Sea-Tac which has their own issues. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 Been cloudy all day and still hit 90°F by 955AM. F**king stupid. 1 1 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah it won't be a hot July, but I am almost certain we will end up above the 30 year average. Except probably not Sea-Tac which has their own issues. Have no idea how Salem/etc operates in these patterns. For PDX I’ll wager 75-25 cool-warm odds. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 63 here at noon…on and off showers still up to 0.11” today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 Man nice euro run. Looking like a couple days in the low to mid 80s then back to some precip chances in the long range. First half of the summer looks to turn out very good for my preferences lol. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Amazing how toned down the upcoming heat has gotten over the past 24 hours. Probably going to get a couple 90s at PDX (Sorry Dewey), but does not look like an extended run of heat. I’m sure we will get a decent run of heat at some point this summer but we will see. This doesn’t look like it’ll be it though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 Looking HAWT 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 26 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Man nice euro run. Looking like a couple days in the low to mid 80s then back to some precip chances in the long range. First half of the summer looks to turn out very good for my preferences lol. Same. Off to a great start so far. Definitely don't mind the occasional heat when it stays occasional and there's a variety of patterns being offered. Feeling a bit 2019 like. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looking HAWT That is a pretty big range from Central Sound to the WV. I think the heat will close the gaps in the coming days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, Cloud said: That is a pretty big range from Central Sound to the WV. I think the heat will close the gaps in the coming days. For whatever reason the Euro temp map seems to really overestimate the cooling effect of Puget Sound. It regularly spits out afternoon temps 5+ degrees too cool for Seattle. 4 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 43 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Same. Off to a great start so far. Definitely don't mind the occasional heat when it stays occasional and there's a variety of patterns being offered. Feeling a bit 2019 like. Lots of warm, moist southerly flow too. Last few days have been cooler but it's been an abberation. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 had two thunderstorms in the early morning hours and about .2 of rain, unexpected. currently partly sunny and 77 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 Moderate rain now... we are actually getting something measureable finally on the back side of that slow moving band. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Lots of warm, moist southerly flow too. Last few days have been cooler but it's been an abberation. Suspect that the incoming trough that's now showing up around Day 10 on all of the models will offer something similar. 70-75 degree days with rain chances like this week are great summer weather. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 Looks like 0.25" fell here today. Almost halfway to the monthly average. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looking HAWT Mid 70’s! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 This morning was amazing. Not so amazing now. Still dry at the moment and 69. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: Same. Off to a great start so far. Definitely don't mind the occasional heat when it stays occasional and there's a variety of patterns being offered. Feeling a bit 2019 like. Let's hope this winter isn't a SNOOZEFEST. Though when you look at it in the context of the cold fall and very chilly February/March, it wasn't bad. Just seemed like weaksauce compared to February 2019. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 1 minute ago, MossMan said: This morning was amazing. Not so amazing now. Still dry at the moment and 69. What is not amazing about this? 69 and cloudy is perfect summer weather IMO. 2 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Let's hope this winter isn't a SNOOZEFEST. Though when you look at it in the context of the cold fall and very chilly February/March, it wasn't bad. Just seemed like weaksauce compared to February 2019. If this winter ends up a dud, I’d be disappointed but not in the least bit surprised. IMO the two most likely outcomes are 08-09 or 16-17 tier monster, and dud. Either way the Cascades are right nearby. Let’s hope it is not a torchfest or endlessly dry. Some winters that are pretty mediocre in the lowlands can still be pretty epic at ski resort level. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: If this winter ends up a dud, I’d be disappointed but not in the least bit surprised. IMO the two most likely outcomes are 08-09 or 16-17 tier monster, and dud. Either way the Cascades are right nearby. Let’s hope it is not a torchfest or endlessly dry. I think we can do better than either of those winters... It's unlikely, but possible. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I think we can do better than either of those winters... It's unlikely, but possible. IMO if any modern winter can pull off a 30 day long West-wide Arctic icebox like Jan 1937 or 1949, or something truly incredible of that nature, it’s this one. But even just a regionwide Arctic blast would be a massive win at this point. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 69 with a DP of 62 with some sunbreaks feels muggy. Rain is mostly to the east for now but it’ll probably be back at some point today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said: IMO if any modern winter can pull off a 30 day long West-wide Arctic icebox like Jan 1937 or 1949, or something truly incredible of that nature, it’s this one. But even just a regionwide Arctic blast would be a massive win at this point. Agreed. The persistence of this -ENSO troughy regime has been remarkable. April would have been a 1969 repeat in Jan. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: Same. Off to a great start so far. Definitely don't mind the occasional heat when it stays occasional and there's a variety of patterns being offered. Feeling a bit 2019 like. Yeah it’s really been great so far and the next 10 days don’t look bad either. Could really enjoy a smoke free summer if we keep at this pace. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 41 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Looks like 0.25" fell here today. Almost halfway to the monthly average. Looks like you jinxed the rainfall into existence when you posted it may be years before you see july rainfall again the other day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Agreed. The persistence of this -ENSO troughy regime has been remarkable. April would have been a 1969 repeat in Jan. I have my doubts about this statement. Although tomorrow you’ll probably hear me talking about how October 2019 was an off-season January 1949. We can’t really say for sure. Although for PDX area you have to go back to the 1930s to find anything comparable in April. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Let's hope this winter isn't a SNOOZEFEST. Though when you look at it in the context of the cold fall and very chilly February/March, it wasn't bad. Just seemed like weaksauce compared to February 2019. Any of the late September through late October 2019 troughs or the mid March 2020 trough would have been a delicious event had they landed in midwinter. That plus the border-hugger in January 2020 (plus Covid) made it a fairly unlucky winter in the grand scheme of things, rather than a full fledged turd. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 19 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: IMO if any modern winter can pull off a 30 day long West-wide Arctic icebox like Jan 1937 or 1949, or something truly incredible of that nature, it’s this one. But even just a regionwide Arctic blast would be a massive win at this point. February 2019 made me rethink what is possible. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Agreed. The persistence of this -ENSO troughy regime has been remarkable. April would have been a 1969 repeat in Jan. The rate of descending westerly shear/+QBO is also unprecedented. Stars do seem to be aligning at the moment. I’m looking for anything that could screw it up but everything is essentially perfect. Almost too perfect. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 Didn’t 2010/11 have multiple arctic blasts in the PNW? One in November and other in February? That was also the most heartbreaking winter I’ve ever experienced. Boxing Day rug pull hurts to this day. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Any of the late September through late October 2019 troughs or the mid March 2020 trough would have been a delicious event had they landed in midwinter. That plus the border-hugger in January 2020 (plus Covid) made it a fairly unlucky winter in the grand scheme of things, rather than a full fledged turd. Reroll that winter setup/background state 100 times, and probably 95 times you end up with a better outcome. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 Just now, Phil said: Didn’t 2010/11 have multiple arctic blasts in the PNW? One in November and other in February? That was also the most heartbreaking winter I’ve ever experienced. Boxing Day rug pull hurts to this day. Yes, and then an extremely cool spring... I would say that was a very solid winter for the Puget Sound. Decent down here, but not great below 1000'. In a lot of ways this past winter was pretty similar to 2010-11. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, Phil said: The rate of descending westerly shear/+QBO is also unprecedented. Stars do seem to be aligning at the moment. I’m looking for anything that could screw it up but everything is essentially perfect. Almost too perfect. Polar vortex getting stuck in Siberia/Mongolia again? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 6, 2022 Report Share Posted July 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said: Reroll that winter setup/background state 100 times, and probably 95 times you end up with a better outcome. 2019/20 was some very raw luck out there. TPV got trapped in exactly the wrong location at the wrong time, preventing what would have been a major -NPO wavebreak and subsequent SSW/arctic blast into the west-central CONUS. I remember that fail clearly. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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