December Observations and Discussions

[Maxim]

Just posting what the models are saying.

he has posted numerous maps similar to that lately, and the EURO hasn't followed suit...

[CentralNebWeather]

We start Christmas Break tomorrow from our school.  Really excited because we get to stay at home in Central Nebraska as relatives come our direction this Christmas.  They will all be arriving from the Kansas City area on the 26th of Dec.  If we do have any weather to track over the break, that might be about the time.  We alternate going there ever other year and most years there is some type of weather that makes us alter when we leave.  I have driven in blizzard conditions, ice storms, driving rainstorms, snow packed roads, you name it.  Hope to be tracking something next week, but always hope for safe driving conditions for relatives.

[Geos]

How exciting.. A dry cold front... Or do we call it an slightly above average front?

 

Probably a slightly above average front.

 

I know it's not exciting but it is what it is.

And then the return flow kicks in the next day.

 

[Andrew NE]

he has posted numerous maps similar to that lately, and the EURO hasn't followed suit...

ohhh no the EURO hasnt followed suit, what are we going to do. Its over a week away....

[Maxim]

lol Andrew NE

[Maxim]

ohhh no the EURO hasnt followed suit, what are we going to do. Its over a week away....

doesn't matter, there's excellent agreement on Christmas week being a torch. You won't find a single model that doesn't show that. Plus, the op GFS is pretty much the only model trying to bring a colder push of air on Christmas eve. I haven't looked yet, but the last time I checked, its ensembles didn't even support it.

[Geos]

GEM/GEM ensembles do not support a warm Christmas either and now the EURO is trending towards a less of a torch for Christmas Day. Now the 26th is a different story.

 

 

 

 

[gosaints]

Looking like a more muted torch for sure.

 

The GGEM surface temp maps are beauties in the long range

[Maxim]

muted, but still much above average. I still think this month is a lock to be in the top 5 warmest Decembers for Chicago.

[Snowshoe]

Look at that GFS just troll me into believing there's a chance of a white Christmas.

 

How about the GFS is trending colder for Christmas Eve and Day.

 

This would be a nice gift of snow for whoever lives in those areas - like Money.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121712/gfs_asnow_ncus_32.png

[Money]

muted, but still much above average. I still think this month is a lock to be in the top 5 warmest Decembers for Chicago.

Go the hell away

[Tom]

It's pathetic to say that today's 32F, blustery day actually feels cold outside.  Sorta puts you in the holiday mood but a fresh blanket of snow would have done wonders.

 

Meantime, the LRC continues to cycle and the trough showing up in the west around Christmas and a few days after are right on schedule.  There are subtle changes the models are beginning to latch onto and that is a change in the NE PAC Day 8.  The Euro weeklies showed the flip to a -EPO around the 30th of the month and its showing up in the extended.  Also, the GEFS are starting to hint at it as well.  The NAO is forecast to dip more towards neutral which will help systems slow down and not be so progressive/fast.  Still not carved out in stone but some signs the pattern may begin to change a bit.

 

The Dakotas/MN/Northwoods are going to cool off substantially from where they have been the first 2 weeks as we close out December.

[Tom]

12z EPS showing the trend in the NE PAC...Day 11, 13, 15 below...something is brewing and its heading where I've been following the shift eastwards in the 30mb warming...notice how in the last couple days the warming hugs the west coast.  Anyway, this all could mean nothing or it can indicate the change some of us have been waiting for. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

However, if this does verify, then it would supply the cold air for a potential large storm system around the New Year.  East Asian Theory/Bearing Sea Rule/LRC all support a large storm system to effect the Central CONUS as we open the New Year.  Thought I'd share some longer range thinking as we continue with a boring pattern.  BTW, the storm that tied the lowest pressure in the Bearing Sea is the one that should cycle through during this period.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121712/gfs_mslpa_wpac_30.png

 

 

[NH4NU]

I recommend everyone in the midwest go watch Jim Flower's most recent post about the EURO and the potential storm system next weekend. Obviously the majority of us on here know the GFS has been awful this year and has taken storm chances down significantly for next week. However, after you watch the video that explains in detail, how and where the Low could form and track there is potential for this storm to become what is referred to as 'Arklatex'. These can be monster snow makers and was actually what produced record snowfall for Omaha. What is interesting is that the 18z GFS is now possibly picking up on what the EURO hinted at this afternoon (much warmer(shocker)) and the timing differs by about 48hrs. Either way this is going to be fun to watch. Commence the 8-10 day rollercoaster ride!  

 

Link to Video: https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersKmtvMeteorologist/videos/472672896253365/?theater

 

18z GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php  

[OKwx2k4]

I recommend everyone in the midwest go watch Jim Flower's most recent post about the EURO and the potential storm system next weekend. Obviously the majority of us on here know the GFS has been awful this year and has taken storm chances down significantly for next week. However, after you watch the video that explains in detail, how and where the Low could form and track there is potential for this storm to become what is referred to as 'Arklatex'. These can be monster snow makers and was actually what produced record snowfall for Omaha. What is interesting is that the 18z GFS is now possibly picking up on what the EURO hinted at this afternoon (much warmer(shocker)) and the timing differs by about 48hrs. Either way this is going to be fun to watch. Commence the 8-10 day rollercoaster ride!

 

Link to Video: https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersKmtvMeteorologist/videos/472672896253365/?theater

 

18z GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

You had me at Arklatex. Lol. Will check it out.

[Tom]

More signals showing up on the Euro Weeklies that the pattern in NW NAMER is completely flipping end of the month and through mid January( end of run).  Nasty -EPO signal and a classic STJ slamming into So Cal/4 corners region and finally may shift the storm track south as anticipated.  I've never seen so much ridging in western Canada/AK in a Euro Weeklies run thus far this entire season.  Certainly more evidence the pattern is about to kick into Winter gear.

 

 

@ Geo's, a January '85 may not necessarily be in the cards for those out East, but it is looking like it may be centering in the west/central states.  Euro weeklies still suggest ridging along the East Coast but not nearly as strong as we have had...which is a good thing actually.

[Tom]

I was gonna say, I bet JB is fired up about this Euro Weekly run and low and behold, he just posted an article on Wx Bell about it...ha!

[Tom]

@ OkWx2k4, the pattern being advertised on the Euro Weekly run is prime to set you up for some snow once we get into the first days of January.  The amount of below normal temps down your way are incredible.  Finally...right???

[GDR]

I'm not getting excited until I see more evidence not just a run.

[gosaints]

So are talking below normal 1st half of january?

[OKwx2k4]

@ OkWx2k4, the pattern being advertised on the Euro Weekly run is prime to set you up for some snow once we get into the first days of January. The amount of below normal temps down your way are incredible. Finally...right???

Oh yeah. Good pattern evolution happening. I can't wait to see if it verifies and produces.

[bud2380]

Gfs looks drastically different thru 132 hours vs. the 18z run. Looks like a cold front will drag through Iowa on the 23rd with some moderate snow for the north half of Minnesota

[bud2380]

Gfs shows a trace to 2" in Iowa for Christmas Eve. At least it's something. Might be enough to make it feel like Christmas anyway.

[jlp]

Awesome! Let's cross our fingers and hope winter finally shows its face.

[Tom]

Gfs shows a trace to 2" in Iowa for Christmas Eve. At least it's something. Might be enough to make it feel like Christmas anyway.

00z GGEM lays down a narrow swath of snow from N KS/N MO/E IA/N IL during this period also...

[Geos]

A weak disturbance is supposed to come through tomorrow. Someone lucky could get a dusting.

 

NAM suite shows it as well as WRF models.

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

per the system on the 28th that both the Euro and GFS have shown (the GFS now on several runs) affecting the Upper Midwest in one way (rain) or another (snow). Bering Sea systems have produced some monster snow events that I remember well- Dec 8th , 2009 and Dec 19th-20th 2012 are a few that come mind.

 

from Paul Pastelok at Accuweather-

.watch the storm heading for the Bering Sea. This storm is trackable, and the energy will produce significant snowfall in Alaska this weekend into Monday and work south along the west Coast of Canada then the U.S. This could bring rain near the holiday to southern California. Then I think, we need to watch how this comes out into the Plains around Dec. 27. Already, some modeling are catching up on this idea. I can see a snow storm for parts of the Plains, but this is a long way out but we will watch carefully.

[crf450ish]

Posting this here because it says great lakes & great plains.....                                               (lurking from the PNW....)

 

So doing some reading on lake effect snow (kind of randomly surfing when came across a cool article) and I learned that the epic lake effect snow that plagued Buffalo, NY last year was partially due to the fact that the temps of waters near Buffalo were several degrees above average thus allowing for a greater "convection" effect, if you will. 

 

Now with the epic torch the greater midwest & east is experiencing right now, I would venture to guess that the temps of the great lake s are above average right now. When the inevitable happens, and it will happen too, it will be very interesting to pay attention to lake effect snow storms. I know last year you guys had the PV that dipped way far south and brought unusually cold temps. I bet this winter, because of the unusual torching, when the cold weather does strike you will see more massive lake effect snow. The other thing that I learned that really drove last years epic snows is the winds associated with that PV that dipped down. 

 

What do you guys think?                        (Source: http://mashable.com/2014/11/20/lake-effect-snow-mysteries/#iFGSl5KOBsqc)

[Grizzcoat]

Greater Delta T's (differecne between the 850mb temp and lake water temp in C) usually produce greater lake effect-- however I have read that if you go over 25C Delta T  it screws up the dendrite growth because the 850 temp is unfavorable (too cold) for good snow making....

[Tom]

Posting this here because it says great lakes & great plains.....                                               (lurking from the PNW....)

 

So doing some reading on lake effect snow (kind of randomly surfing when came across a cool article) and I learned that the epic lake effect snow that plagued Buffalo, NY last year was partially due to the fact that the temps of waters near Buffalo were several degrees above average thus allowing for a greater "convection" effect, if you will. 

 

Now with the epic torch the greater midwest & east is experiencing right now, I would venture to guess that the temps of the great lake s are above average right now. When the inevitable happens, and it will happen too, it will be very interesting to pay attention to lake effect snow storms. I know last year you guys had the PV that dipped way far south and brought unusually cold temps. I bet this winter, because of the unusual torching, when the cold weather does strike you will see more massive lake effect snow. The other thing that I learned that really drove last years epic snows is the winds associated with that PV that dipped down. 

 

What do you guys think?                        (Source: http://mashable.com/2014/11/20/lake-effect-snow-mysteries/#iFGSl5KOBsqc)

I was thinking the same thing and the reality is, the Great Lakes are average 5-8F above normal and when the shoe does drop, this should allow for increased LES downwind of the Lakes.  Lake Erie/Lake Ontario should put on a show this weekend.  It'll be interesting to see how much falls during this event.

 

Meanwhile, some lighter snows will fall around here later this afternoon...latest RPM...

 

[Madtown]

^clipper on steroids

[Tom]

00z Euro showing big potential just after Christmas as the Grizz mentioned.  Showing huge snow totals out in the Plains.  This is part of the 30-day cycle storm system that hit around Thanksgiving that had loads of moisture coming up from the GOM.  Current trends are for more cold air to be in place but still days away to get excited about any snow potential.  Good thing is, the Euro has been consistently showing a strong arctic HP nearby in the northern Plains.

[CentralNebWeather]

Tom, can you post the Euro snowfall maps?  The 06Z GFS shows a ton of snow way down over New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma.

[Tom]

Tom, can you post the Euro snowfall maps?  The 06Z GFS shows a ton of snow way down over New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma.

Here you go...this is just the beginning of the storm...keep in mind temps are in the low 20's and these are 10:1 snowfall maps...you can get the gist of the potential with this system...it could bury someone...hope it works out and it can share the wealth out this way a bit.  Long ways out.

[Snowshoe]

Yes it's hour 264, I know. Still nice to dream.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121806/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png

[gosaints]

Yes it's hour 264, I know. Still nice to dream.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121806/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png

At some point snowshoe we are gonna cash in...

[CentralNebWeather]

Tom, thanks again.  Hope you have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.  I am now on Christmas vacation.  Love being a teacher with a wife that is also a teacher so we have the same schedule.  Also 2 kids that are 15 and 10 that we can share this time with.

 

I will be doing a lot of storm watching along with the forum in the next couple of weeks.  May those that want snow get it.

[james1976]

Definitely a storm to watch. Hope it buries all of us like that storm did in late Nov.

[CentralNebWeather]

I am with you james1976.

[NEJeremy]

Here you go...this is just the beginning of the storm...keep in mind temps are in the low 20's and these are 10:1 snowfall maps...you can get the gist of the potential with this system...it could bury someone...hope it works out and it can share the wealth out this way a bit.  Long ways out.

and waiting for Maxim or GDR to say it won't happen in 3....2....1...