Tom Posted November 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 12z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 NAM + EURO = EE rule in effect? soooo close for lincoln Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 I hate being on the edge like that. Still a few days away though. And I cant complain since I got bombed a week ago with 12"! Still can't believe that happened haha. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Wow the nam and euro look very similar! GFS way different in comparison Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 I'm scared for Lincoln man. Seems like one of those 'classic' setups, where Omaha gets pounded, and we get 34 and rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 I'm scared for Lincoln man. Seems like one of those 'classic' setups, where Omaha gets pounded, and we get 34 and rain.thats what ive been thinking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 thats what ive been thinkingIf the NAM is right you can clock us in at getting 8". It's going to be closeee. I unfortunately am going to downplay it and say we'll be rain. Tom, give me something to boost my hopes up man, is there anything that says this thing will shift SE? I know that was the case with your storm last week right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 If the NAM is right you can clock us in at getting 8". It's going to be closeee. I unfortunately am going to downplay it and say we'll be rain. Tom, give me something to boost my hopes up man, is there anything that says this thing will shift SE? I know that was the case with your storm last week right?I don't forsee a significant shift SE with this one. Last storm had a big HP that blocked it from heading to far north. In this situation, the system is cut-off from the main jet and models have a tough time figuring out what to do with the track, let along intensity. Your going to see a wide variety of solutions, but your area still seems like it is in a good spot to see some snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 I don't forsee a significant shift SE with this one. Last storm had a big HP that blocked it from heading to far north. In this situation, the system is cut-off from the main jet and models have a tough time figuring out what to do with the track, let along intensity. Your going to see a wide variety of solutions, but your area still seems like it is in a good spot to see some snow.Tom, you're awesome dude. Thanks for all the updates. I think it'll be a day of event where we'll just have to watch the temp profiles. I sure hope this thing gives us something over 6", been way too long! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 NAM says Lincoln gets pounded... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 That 18z GFS look interesting for my area and to the west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 18z GFS took a decent shift SE now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Need just a small shift SE on the models for here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 I really like this development. Wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Yeah these cutoff Lows are hard for models to forecast. Who knows where this thing will go. I do think Nebraska is sitting good though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 You know, I recall the last system that ejected out of the Rockies into the Plains in this similar fashion ended up shifting farther SE each day. It's still on the table since that has been the pattern thus far. 18z GFS has a CO Low for in SW KS/TX Pan Handle and heads due East, instead of NE...then eventually heads NE towards N MO/S WI. I feel this storm has eyes for NE/MN/NW IA...12z EPS has maintained a good hit for these locals.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 It will be interesting to see what models show tomorrow. I'm probably too far South, but maybe I can squeeze out an 1" or 2". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 00z NAM is trying to dig this system farther SE it looks like...has SLP just over KC at HR 66... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 00z NAM showing some lolipop totals in NW IA/MN...hasn't this region been the hot spot for storm systems...now that we are closing in on December, there is more cold air around to produce snow even without a direct arctic connection. All you need is somewhat of a HP to funnel in cold air or have "left over" cold from an arctic outbreak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Wow, talk about a major shift. That had the heaviest of the totals well north. Shoot... now the NAM isn't on our side, gives us maybe 2-4". Praying the GFS gives us something... would hate to see this system go to waste around here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Wow, talk about a major shift. That had the heaviest of the totals well north. Shoot... now the NAM isn't on our side, gives us maybe 2-4". Praying the GFS gives us something... would hate to see this system go to waste around here Pin-pointing the heaviest swath of snow this far out isn't much of a worry really...If I were you, I'd be hoping the NW trend doesn't come back...that'll bring a rain/snow mix close by and that is always the dagger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 00z GFS lookin' juicy all the way back from E CO/NW KS/S NE thru HR66... Edit: Looks farther SE from 18z run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Good run so far for the Nebraskans on this site on the 00z gfs. Solid 6-12 inches. Let's see if winter storm watches are hoisted tomorrow afternoon if this trend continues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 00z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 @NebraskaWx...that's the run you were lookin for! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 @ James, if you get another 6-10" from this system...you will be close to 18"+ for the season...close to 50% of your seasonal snowfall! Haha...slow start or fast start to the Winter??? Meteorological Winter will have just started by then! Pretty awesome pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 A few more shifts south and east Chicago will get into the action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 00z GFS... If that snow band starts moving into NW IL, that's going to start grabbing my attention more. Seems like the snow area is becoming more west to east. GFS starts showing just that...Congrats eastern Nebraska! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 If that snow band starts moving into NW IL, that's going to start grabbing my attention more. Seems like the snow area is becoming more west to east. GFS starts showing just that...Congrats eastern Nebraska! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112800/gfs_asnow_ncus_18.pngClassic CO Low with a bit of a Bowling Ball look... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 In 2 runs, the GFS has shifted over 125 miles SE...on the 12z GFS run it had a SLP on 12/1 15z near LaCrosse, now it's right over RFD.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 In 24 hours, the GFS has shifted about 175 miles... 00z GFS yesterday... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112700/gfs_asnow_us_21.png 00z GFS today... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112800/gfs_asnow_us_17.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Now we await the Canadian and euro. Nice run from gfs for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Hopefully the trend continue shifting S.E though eastern Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 This is getting interesting!! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Canadian is further nw than gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 This won't imply my area, but this looks like a fun one to track anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 thus far gfs is on its own but wouldnt take much for other models to give us more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
th_snow Posted November 28, 2015 Report Share Posted November 28, 2015 euro is gonna be nw of the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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