El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.

[Bryant]

great animation of 200 mb forcing. really fascinating how it all fits together...eventually effecting the sensible weather here or there.

Thanks Said it before, but I feel like tropical forcing as a whole is very underrated and overlooked. It all links together, and is a very good method to get an idea of the overall pattern in advance

[snow_wizard]

Can we get the title of this thread changed? "Nina Watch 2016-2017" maybe? The Nino is dead now, and the Nina is on the horizon

 

Amen brother!

[snow_wizard]

great animation of 200 mb forcing.  really fascinating how it all fits together...eventually effecting the sensible weather here or there.

 

 

 

Solar:  sunspots dropped to zero on 6/4 for the first time in the eventual cycle 24/25 minimum.

 

 

 

Interesting article regarding the current cycle:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/06/04/solar-cycle-update-spotless/

 

This is shaping up to be a really nice spotless run for so early in the cycle.  Already up to 5 days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point I think we are looking at about a 60% chance of a weak Nina and 40% of a moderate Nina. I'm going to go with about a 50% chance of a multi-year event. 

[MossMan]

Can we get the title of this thread changed? "Nina Watch 2016-2017" maybe? The Nino is dead now, and the Nina is on the horizon

And Cliff Mass made it official today!

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

[Bryant]

Third time's the charm.

 

thank you sir

[epiceast]

Such a weird SST map. Anyway I'm stoked for a La Nina.

[TT-SEA]

Updated SSTA map.

 

I am beginning to think there is hope this will just be a moderate Nina... which I think is better for blocking.   Although I have been told otherwise.  We are running quite a bit behind some of our analog years.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.6.9.2016.gif

[Phil]

For the first time this year, we have a -AAM. Looks like the next trade wind burst starts in ~ 5 days.

 

Will be a new round of cooling, along with a drop in the PDO.

[Phil]

Here she comes, this one should be more permanent as lowfreq IO/EHEM forcing is gradually taking over vs the dying MJO/propagatory forcing.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[Bryant]

Here she comes, this one should be more permanent as lowfreq IO/EHEM forcing is gradually taking over vs the dying MJO/propagatory forcing.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Beat me to it!

[TT-SEA]

Update:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.6.13.2016.gif

[Phil]

Yeah, some short-lived warming/downwelling associated with the recent westerly surge (Pacific/WHEM forcing). This reverses in a big way over the next 10 days, though, possibly dropping SSTs into La Niña territory:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

 

So, we'll probably observe a significant cooling begin later this week, into next week, along with a drop in the PDO given developing low frequency anticyclonic wind/current anomalies over the relevant portion of the basin.

[Bryant]

Easterly winds have returned

[TT-SEA]

Update...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.6.16.2016.gif

[Phil]

The PDO is going to drop like a rock over the next 4 weeks, given anomalous low frequency anticyclonic flow over the NPAC.

 

Might see La Niña conditions emerge in areas, too.

[Bryant]

PDO flipping and eastern ENSO regions really cooling off over the past 7 days.

[Jesse]

PDO flipping and eastern ENSO regions really cooling off over the past 7 days.

I'm pretty surprised we've seen warming of our offshore SSTs given the pattern we've been in.

[Phil]

PDO flipping and eastern ENSO regions really cooling off over the past 7 days.

Updated map shows rapid cooling. At this rate we'll reach new lows within the week.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[Bryant]

Updated map shows rapid cooling. At this rate we'll reach new lows within the week.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Had no idea that updated that often. There's a lot of change in that short duration

[Black Hole]

There has/is a very obvious reconfiguration of the global pattern we have been in for several years finally. I expect a very different year ahead to what we have been seeing. Should be fun to watch and see what happens, but at the least I would expect less persistent warm anomalies. Doesn't mean we won't have some, but less than its been. 

[Phil]

Well, that didn't take long. Already down to new lows in Niño3, with Niño3.4 to follow:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

[TT-SEA]

Update:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.6.20.2016.gif

[westiztehbest]

[Bryant]

Was going to share this as well. Appears that low frequency forcing is beginning to take hold as the Easterlies over the ENSO regions are forecasted to continue, despite MJO pushing over the Pacific. This is definitely a welcomed change, as I was concerned another reversal in low level winds was on the horizon.

[Black Hole]

Was going to share this as well. Appears that low frequency forcing is beginning to take hold as the Easterlies over the ENSO regions are forecasted to continue, despite MJO pushing over the Pacific. This is definitely a welcomed change, as I was concerned another reversal in low level winds was on the horizon.

 

Definitely seeing the changes set in on longer time scales now with a real regime change in progress. 

[Phil]

Who's ready for round three?

 

[Bryant]

Who's ready for round three?

 

image.jpeg

Propagatory forcing should line up nicely for a healthy cooling of the ENSO regions

[Geos]

Updated Scripps forecast.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Scripps is the one that tends to overdo things, right?

[Geos]

Scripps is the one that tends to overdo things, right?

 

Maybe a little. It's been fairly steady with a high end moderate Nina or strong one.

[Bryant]

Another round of ENSO region upwelling and cooling on the way during the last half of July as MJO propagates back into the Eastern Hemisphere. The last round of EHem forcing is apparent when looking at the 850mb winds. The MJO is currently running at a roughly 30 day cycle, which is on the low end of it's 30-60 day potential duration

[Phil]

That's a much better longitudinally-oriented trade wind burst too. Dateline easterlies assist in steepening the thermocline tilt around 120W, promoting upwelling there.

[Phil]

Here she comes:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.11.2016.gif

[Bryant]

Here she comes:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.11.2016.gif

Love seeing the warm pool develop as the PDO slowly begins its demise

[Geos]

Cold pool looking better!

[Anti Marine Layer]

Most of the West coast has slightly below normal sea surface temperatures, but they remain above average off the Southern California coast. This July is similar to 2010 with dominant troughing over the Pac NW, but down here it's been very hard to get a thick marine layer with the warm sea surface temperatures. July 2010 had very cold sea surface temperatures in Southern California, dropping into the 50s at times and beach areas got almost no sun all summer long.

[Geos]

At least off the CA coast the waters are below normal.

 

 

Quite a bit of cooling going on off the coast.

 

[Phil]

Hey there, La Niña. Missed ya.

 

[TT-SEA]

Hey there, La Niña. Missed ya.

 

image.jpeg

You have not missed La Nina. Hot summers and warm winters!