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Ground Hog Day Blizzard/Snowstorm Part II


Geos

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It's really weird and I think the low might just head straight N/NNE and skip all that back and forth business. Towards Kansas City more or less.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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If the low comes further south and east the Blizzard warnings would have to pulled that way as well. Good news for SE NE.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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To early to say if the NW shift is real or not for WI.  Here was the 06z NAM/GFS...06z GEFS looking better up there.

 

CentralNeb/E NE are absolutely crushed on the Euro...

 

Eagle River looks good for a solid foot, probably a bit more after winds turn NW and lake effect kicks in.  Much needed after the snowmobile trails took a beating over the weekend. 

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That is awesome. Most of Nebraska will be buried. Local tv meteorological predicts in rural areas we will see 20-30 foot snowdrifts. Don't know if that will happen but now the latest is wind gusts 60-65 mph. With heavy snow at the same time who knows

OMG...that is sweet!  The experience you will have will rival what we saw during GHD 2011.  I can see drifts up to the roofs of houses if that does pan out.  It sure will look gorgeous outside tomorrow.

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Tom it is just so exciting to experience. I think we are closing in on 6 inches so far as bands keep moving north. Wind now east at 23 mph

I can only imagine...your posts bring me flash backs of our recent blizzards...fun times amigo!  That banding just keeps reforming to your south and heads due north.  Your in the perfect spot...can't wait to see what that radar will look like late tonight when that comma head starts forming while the GOM moisture gets wrapped in...it's in the beginning stages now.

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Cause and effect: Jim Cantore comes to Omaha -> model amounts go down. Jim Cantore leaves Omaha for Sioux City -> models go up. Hmm...

LMFAO!! Has to be the quote of the night......he comes to Lincoln for a super outbreak of tornadoes during the spring game, not a tornado in sight. Keep that guy out of this state, he is a jinx!! 

 

Snow began around 5:45 here, didn't last long but it coated the ground. I can't wait until this thing goes full potato tonight.....I will be up with my camera. I'm hoping I get lucky and can catch thunder snow.......

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That looks so much better for Omaha! I noticed there's some convection already to the south of us near the Kansas border heading right at Omaha. Hope it falls as snow and not rain. My grid has also gone up to 4-8 for tomorrow from 3-6" too.

My grid is 1-3, and 3-7" :( hopefully they update it to match yours.

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I have 3-5 tonight and 4-8 for tomorrow now. Was 2-4 tonight and 3-6 for tomorrow. I feel like this is going to be south a bit. Hopefully the nam is onto something!

That's odd, I thought we'd be in the same boat. Hmm. Maybe they just update later, I hope that's the case! Hastings would have us in the 14-18" band, so I don't know why we wouldn't have similar totals in the grid forecast. 

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Here's a Facebook response from NWS LaCrose to an angry post. I think it's great.

 

 

Hi Jamie: at no time did any National Weather Service office predict 30" of snow. Unfortunately in the world of social media now, it has become very easy for anyone to share out computer model forecasts up to 10 days out before a possible snow storm. Such was the case in this setup, with many sharing information that was false. We have a responsibility as an agency to produce the highest quality forecasts we can, and we pride ourselves on that. As such, you will never see us producing snow forecasts of specific values more than a few days before a storm, simply because it is impossible to nail down specific values. We hope that helps straighten out a few questions. Enjoy the snow storm.

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Noticed the HRRR didn't pick up on that eastern KS moisture better.

 

 

Low is still way south, at least the strongest part of it.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I'm living on the edge in Lincoln. Boy it'll be close. Please NAM be right, ahh. The stress is real.

all the Hi-res are in your favor as well. I'm living on the edge. Hi-res are generous to me though. 

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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