luvssnow_spokane Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well, according to the NWS -- snow for Puget Sound (as of today) looks incredibly unlikely to limited. Typical scenario for here -- Plenty of cold to be tapped but no moisture. Yet! ... ANOTHER COLDER CANADIAN TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE N ON SUNDAY.THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND STILL MOIST IN THELOWER LEVELS. THE NEW 12Z NAM-12 SHOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE LATE INAFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH SO THATSHOWERS COULD FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO NEAR SEA-LEVEL. THISDOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AT THIS POINT BUT STAYTUNED. MERCER.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES INTHE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN THEECMWF AND THE GFS. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE THE TROUGH SOUTH OFTHE AREA AND DRY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER ALTHOUGHPRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE ECMWF ARE STILL FAIRLY LIGHT. SNOWLEVELS WILL BE LOW BELOW 1000 FEET WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUESWELL BELOW 1300 METERS...SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWSTHE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECASTINTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW 1000 FEET BUT IFANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT WILL BE LIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENTMONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE ANDAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTONWITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ATTHE SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETROGRADING THURSDAY WITH THEUPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE AREA. EVENWITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DONOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL STAY WITH THE DRY AND COOLFORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREESBELOW NORMAL...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FELTON Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Seems like there is going to be quite a bit of low level cold associated with this. Outflow areas could put up some pretty impressive numbers.Agreed. WRF is going to be ridiculously cold Wed - Sat. Oh BTW, GEM has 850mb -17c PDX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Agreed. WRF is going to be ridiculously cold Wed - Sat. Oh BTW, GEM has 850mb -17c PDX. Wow that is crazy. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The UKMET is on the train. http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow that is crazy. totes cray Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The UKMET is on the train. http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gifThank God! Without the Brit's support this all falls apart very quickly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thank God! Without the Brit's support this all falls apart very quickly.We found this out in 1812. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The UKMET is on the train. http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gifNow I'm convinced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 We found this out in 1812. LOL @ THAT !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z WRF 7:00 PM Wednesdayhttp://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013112/images_d2/slp.135.0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Seems like there is going to be quite a bit of low level cold associated with this. Outflow areas could put up some pretty impressive numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Amazing 12z runs so far. Hope the Euro keeps the beat going. It has been awhile since PDX has seen anything in the Feb 5-15 timeframe. Records could definitely fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Colder than December's blast? 1:00 AM Thursday 925mb temps -15c over PDX!http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013112/images_d2/slp.141.0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 WOW 7:00 AM Thursday -16c!http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013112/images_d2/slp.147.0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 WOW 7:00 AM Thursday -16c! what did we bottom out at in december? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 WOW 7:00 AM Thursday -16c!http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013112/images_d2/slp.147.0000.gif THAT'S INSANE, LOOK AT THE POWER OF THE GORGE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GEM 850mb temp loophttp://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=TT850&map=na&lang=enWow is all I can say! Not often you see the -15c to -20c shading over PDX and all of Washington! and -20c to -25c Gorge and Columbia Basin. 850mb temps of -10c or colder PDX through HR 180-192. HR 120 !!http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_120_0850.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 what did we bottom out at in december?925mb around -13c. This is far colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian guy Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 WOW http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Gotta love what's happening. Hope the cold stays on this side of the coast for a while. Maybe the west coast will see some snow as far south as the east coast has if things keep up. For some reason I am excited to have to warm up my car in the morning... Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50shadesofvan Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 For reference, I believe this is as cold as the WRF got us in December. If this verifies records will be falling like dominos. Coldest February Arctic outbreak since at least 1990 for the Vancouver, BC area. Quote 50 Shades of Van: A weather blog dedicated to providing the public with easily accessible and downright interesting weather information for Vancouver, BC and the Pacific Northwest Latest Post: http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/10/23/chaos-in-the-pacific-storm-parade-route-unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GFS Ensembles. Mean around -13c, but notice we stay at -6c or colder now THROUGH February 12th. Also, note how many more cold members there are beyond day 10. This MIGHT become a much longer event(perhaps snowy!)Portland http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 WOW http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.pngAs Steve Pierce would say, "That's Nucking Futs!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Seattle!http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 WOW http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png That's RIDICULOUS! The OP is the warmest member, wow. Better in long range too as more members stay colder! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 That's RIDICULOUS! The OP is the warmest member, wow. Better in long range too as more members stay colder!The 12z Euro run is gonna be huge in this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12z Euro run is gonna be huge in this. Yes it will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I want some pizza.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st0rmchaser Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow, that's pretty impressive!! If for no other reason than the anticipation/buzz factor, we needed this! The rest of the country has experienced seemingly unprecedented cold while we've been thrown crumbs from the master's table. Our December blast was nice, but it left most of us wanting and expecting more. Quote Favorite weather: The kind most people run away from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks cold through hour 120. 510 thicknesses just to our East and 850mb temps between -12 and -14. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF0.5_12z/f120.gif Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 If this verify Jim will be the happiest person on this forum, he had some ups and downs.I couldn't be happier for him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I want some pizza....I need a cigarette ... Wait, I don't smoke... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 If this verify Jim will be the happiest person on this forum, he had some ups and downs.I couldn't be happier for him.Honestly though, This is super exciting cold wise but will not be complete for many without snow. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Honestly though, This is super exciting cold wise but will not be complete for many without snow. Yeah, If it pans out like the 12z has it. that will make an incredible winter. Record dry with two arctic events, very strange. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Sub 510 thicknesses and 850mb temps of -16 to PDX at hour 144 on the Euro. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Honestly though, This is super exciting cold wise but will not be complete for many without snow. I realize that, however will be better than what we went through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I need a cigarette ... Wait, I don't smoke... I need Rum and Coke. Who cares what time it is! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z ECMWF at hour 144, OH MY GOD! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Word on the street is 12z ECMWF Op is ridiculously cold. -16c at coldest point at hour 144 (run is currently processing). Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Word on the street is 12z ECMWF Op is ridiculously cold. -16c at coldest point at hour 144 (run is currently processing).The street folk are right, and very wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.