January 2014 in the PNW

[BLI snowman]

I noticed that on the ECMWF this morning.    Its pretty wet on Monday morning over the Seattle area.

 

I have a strong feeling that the GFS and NAM are missing the boat as usual with precip early Monday.   

 

That is the best shot by far going into the cold air.

 

Unfortunately... the highs on Monday will still be near 40 degrees in the Seattle area.    Don't like saying it but its true... most of what does fall on Monday morning will likely melt.   MOS guidance has 42 at SEA that day even with -8C or -9C.

 

NAM shows quite a bit of moisture on Sunday afternoon into Monday. 00z continues to advertise a 1-2" event for much of SW WA, spotty amounts elsewhere.

[BLI snowman]

And the new MM5-NAM advertises a nice blob of showers right over Seattle on Sunday evening. Would be snow.

 

 

 

[Snowman Josh]

And the new MM5-NAM advertises a nice blob of showers right over Seattle on Sunday evening. Would be snow.

 

 

 

january 31,2014 mm5.gif

Nice to see convergence showing up on the precip models this far out. They verify more often than not.

[TT-SEA]

And the new MM5-NAM advertises a nice blob of showers right over Seattle on Sunday evening. Would be snow.

 

 

 

january 31,2014 mm5.gif

 

 

 

Disregard the MM5 NAM.

 

It is so wrong with these set-ups its comical. 

 

WRF is a little better... ECMWF is so far ahead its the only thing that really matters.

[TT-SEA]

I just looked at the details on the 12Z ECMWF.

 

Way too warm and there is sparse moisture on Sunday afternoon and evening.   Its too warm for even my location.

 

Monday morning is the main show.

[bainbridgekid]

It may not be the best model but the MM5-NAM has one hell of a CZ over Seattle Sunday night.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/ww_pcp24.72.0000.gif

 

Borderline temps though.

[GHweatherChris]

I think the NAM does a better job than the GFS with precip in the short term when we are talking snow potential.

 

It was closer to the Euro and Canadian with the precip amounts for the December event than it was compared to the GFS.

 

Of course it did not benefit Western Washington overall but still.

[Snowman Josh]

It may not be the best model but the MM5-NAM has one hell of a CZ over Seattle Sunday night.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/ww_pcp24.72.0000.gif

 

Borderline temps though.

That looks like late Monday night into Tuesday....72 hours? Check that, that is Tuesday morning.

[Snow]

00z GFS is running, crossing my fingers and hoping for the best!

[GHweatherChris]

00z GFS could be the real DUD run of the last few days, hopefully it isn't and ends up epic.

 

Euro holds it guns though, its on.

[TT-SEA]

That looks like late Monday night into Tuesday....72 hours? Check that, that is Tuesday morning.

 

 

24 hours ending Monday at 4 p.m.

 

And it matches up somewhat close to the ECMWF for that timeframe.    

 

Monday morning could be interesting.

[bainbridgekid]

That looks like late Monday night into Tuesday....72 hours? Check that, that is Tuesday morning.

72 hours is 00z Tuesday which is 4 PM Monday.

[GHweatherChris]

00z GFS could be the real DUD run of the last few days, hopefully it isn't and ends up epic.

 

Euro holds it guns though, its on.

Edit:  I really don't wanna see a DUD but history has proven that a run at some point will show a very shitty solution and switch back, so I am just waiting for it to rear its ugly face and get it over with.

[TT-SEA]

Here is the thing that is pissing me off for this weekend.    

 

This is what Friday evening looked like 48 hours ago:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013000/images_d2/slp.48.0000.gif

 

 

And here is what it actually looked like this evening:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.00.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

And then tomorrow afternoon... originally looked cold enough for snow.

 

48 hours ago it looked like this:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013000/images_d2/slp.60.0000.gif

 

 

Now it looks like this... and reality will be even warmer based how the WRF is handling it:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.24.0000.gif

[bainbridgekid]

00z is colder than the 18z through hour 93. Looks more like the 12z so far.

[Snowman Josh]

Just looks a little slower. Definitely some serious cold air getting wrapped into and pulled south by the passing low. Patience.

[TT-SEA]

Just looks a little slower. Definitely some serious cold air getting wrapped into and pulled south by the passing low. Patience.

 

 

I know... I was just telling you that.      Just frustrating.

[Snowman Josh]

I know... I was just telling you that.      Just frustrating.

Better to be slow than not coming at all.

[TT-SEA]

00Z looks colder than even the 12Z run!

[TT-SEA]

Sunday does look more sunny with some slight offshore flow.    

[Snowman Josh]

Sunday does look more sunny with some slight offshore flow.    

 

Hmm...I won't say anything, lol.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00Z looks colder than even the 12Z run!

 

I don't think thats possible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00Z looks colder than even the 12Z run!

 

I'm just looking at the thickness, but that is definitely not as low as the 12z run.

[TT-SEA]

Hmm...I won't say anything, lol.

 

Well... the WRF changed a little.    

 

Actually... having that low come even farther north is helping with the cloud situation this weekend.    Its pushing that moisture band to the north and breaking it up.

[Snowman Josh]

Well... the WRF changed a little.    

 

Actually... having that low come even farther north is helping with the cloud situation this weekend.    Its pushing that moisture band to the north and breaking it up.

Ha ha....reverse deformation.

[Weather101]

4:47 PM Update

The system for Monday can already be see up in Yukon. You can see on IR Loop it's progressing southward slowly. Where exactly this tracks will play a role in how much precip we see, or if it's largely dry. If it slides a bit offshore it could pick up a bit of moisture. If it tracks further inland things should be fairly dry.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12

 

Also, I personally am not ruling out the remote chance for a surprise dusting to snow to quic

k 1" with this, but everything has to come together just right. This system as it heads south is also what will dig out the arctic trough over western Washington and Oregon bringing very cold air into the area Tuesday - Saturday(possibly beyond?). So all of the pieces are in place and the pattern progression can be seen in real-time on IR Loop instead of merely relying on the models to see the what and when. I really like that you can track things now with the eye and not rely solely on stupid computers.

 

http://i60.tinypic.com/n5sgop.png

Nice keep us updated!!!!!

[Snowman Josh]

I will say that thing is destined for northern California as prognosticated, but nice try .

[Snowman Josh]

Nice keep us updated!!!!!

That is sliding to the east. Our low is in Alaska right now.

[Snowman Josh]

What a weak looking Pacific, even by '13-14' standards.

[TT-SEA]

Snow event one week from today on the 00Z GFS.

[Snow]

Day 7 on 00z GFS:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_168_1000_500_thick.gif

[Snowman Josh]

Would love to see that low about 150-200 miles south.

[stuffradio]

I love that low right where it is. Keep it there. A part of it in the ocean can break off and move south though. The rest stay where it is.

[Snowman Josh]

I love that low right where it is. Keep it there. A part of it in the ocean can break off and move south though. The rest stay where it is.

I'm more excited about where that big sucker is headed for Sat/Sun.

[Snow]

Wow looks like Vancouver BC and Seattle will be the winners.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thats some insane cold in NW Canada 

[Parksvillewx]

Agreed with stuffradio, keep that low where it is!

[Weather101]

I'm more excited about where that big sucker is headed for Sat/Sun.

I'm with u on that !

[Weather101]

Wow looks like Vancouver BC and Seattle will be the winners.

You're talking about the potential storm next weekend?