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September 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 69/54 that was only the 3rd time it has not reached 70 or better since June 1st The other sub 70 days being 65 on June 8th and a cool 62 on a wet August 13th officially there was 0.03” of rain fall and a reported 1% of possible sunshine (not sure when that happened) The overnight low and current reading at GRR of 58. Here in MBY the low and current reading was a little warmer 60. For today the average H/L is 78/57 the record high of 92 was set in 1922 and again in 1954 the record low of 39 was set in 1950 and 1974. Last year  the H/L was 81/56.

 

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Happy Labor Day!  Hope ya'll are enjoying a relaxing long weekend.  The weather back home hasn't been ideal with cloudy and at times rainy periods.  Looks more of the same today.  Meanwhile, out here we are definitely baking in the Heat!   Topped out at 109F yesterday and doing the same today.  The Excessive Heat Warning has been extended through Wed.  

Changes brewing??  The long awaited storm system during the 9th-11th period is locking in on the models and a Taste of Autumn is set to hit the Sub.  

Nice cool temps next weekend...Sun am lows off the 0z Euro...40's & 50's showing up more often...daytime highs next weekend may not get out of the 60's/low 70's for the GL's region.

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As this system tracks through the N Rockies, the 1st snows of the season are heading for the Rockies...signs of Winter in the Lower 48!  This will not be the last as the 0z EPS is suggesting more of the same and storms begin to hit the PAC NW. #LaNina #AutumnIsHere

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Models have been trying to figure out the Baha hurricane for quite a while.  They've had the moisture dumping anywhere from Texas to California.  Well, the models have now settled on nobody getting the moisture.  Instead, the cyclone turns west into the cold water and dies.  The latest GFS and Euro have really dried out Texas over the next week or two.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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On 9/3/2022 at 6:50 AM, Tom said:

Thinking of Fall??  I came across this fall foliage prediction map where you can adjust the dates for an idea of when the leaves will be changing.

https://smokymountains.com/fall-foliage-map/

Looking forward to it! 🍂 🍻🍻 🍂

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 52
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 6/23, 6/25, 6/29, 7/3, 7/4, 7/5, 7/14, 7/16, 7/30
8/1, 8/2, 8/8, 8/16, 8/17, 8/29, 8/30, 8/31, 9/6, 9/21
9/24, 9/27, 

Severe storms: 4
Max High: 98 (feels like 106 on Aug 30)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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23 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Perfect weather all weekend long up here in the TC. Mid 70s and low 50s. Actually got down to 47 Sunday AM! We enjoyed a couple campfires in the backyard and some grilling. 

Still getting lows in the 60's here. Will be a while before it starts feeling like a change in the seasons. 

The upper 40's will be welcomed whenever that happens.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 52
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 6/23, 6/25, 6/29, 7/3, 7/4, 7/5, 7/14, 7/16, 7/30
8/1, 8/2, 8/8, 8/16, 8/17, 8/29, 8/30, 8/31, 9/6, 9/21
9/24, 9/27, 

Severe storms: 4
Max High: 98 (feels like 106 on Aug 30)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Clouds have been stuck all weekend here in S MI, but no rainfall to go w/it. Temps remained fairly coolish. Highs in spots yesterday remained in the upper 60s. Definitely feels like Autumn. Nice little warm-up coming though w 80s returning w a ton of sunshine for the remaining of the work week. It does get cooler by next weekend w some rain chances as well.

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Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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On 9/1/2022 at 5:41 PM, Iceresistance said:

I had an absolute gullywasher earlier, picked up .5 inches in under 1 hour! I'm now up to .75 for today.

Late post but I got 1.4 inches from an unexpected Extreme gully washer

I got .4 yesterday from an unexpected batch storms

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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3 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Hopefully this forecast doesn't get any more serious. We don't want to receive more than 0.10" at once and put us at risk for a flash flood! p168i.gif.8502990b76fed48d9e1d4fb466e44823.gif

Very depressing. We have had less than 0.50” in the last 6 weeks. Now 3 more days this week of mid to upper 90’s as the death ridge moves over top of us. Yards very stressed, even those with sprinkler systems. 

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Went camping outside of Iowa City this past weekend, taking I80 east across the state. I know this isn't the worst drought ever, but that had to be some of the worst looking corn and soybean crops I've ever seen, especially across far western Iowa. I really wanted to stop and take some pics but had the family and a camper with me so kept on driving. I might still try and get out into western Iowa one of these days soon though for some pics

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A positive change has popped up on some models today, regarding the weekend.  They all had been showing nothing more than a front sweeping through the region with some light rain.  However, this morning's Euro dug the upper low more and held up the front, leading to a soaking rain for my area.  Now, tonight's GFS and Canadian are suddenly showing something similar.  I hope this isn't a one day/run wonder because this area really needs a good soaking.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

A positive change has popped up on some models today, regarding the weekend.  They all had been showing nothing more than a front sweeping through the region with some light rain.  However, this morning's Euro dug the upper low more and held up the front, leading to a soaking rain for my area.  Now, tonight's GFS and Canadian are suddenly showing something similar.  I hope this isn't a one day/run wonder because this area really needs a good soaking.

Looks to be in response to the dip in the NAO.  Hope it's a good soaker for ya!

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How's does the saying go?  "A cut-off low is a weather mans woe"?  As @Clinton mentioned, that strong -NAO is certainly working its magic along with the -EPO.  

 image.png

 

I expect to see changes in the modeling and do not loose out hope for those in out in the Plains to get some much needed moisture.  The 0z UKIE among other models starting to paint some good moisture...

image.png

 

0z CMC...

gem_apcpn_ncus_31.png

 

 

0z Euro...

image.png

 

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10 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Very depressing. We have had less than 0.50” in the last 6 weeks. Now 3 more days this week of mid to upper 90’s as the death ridge moves over top of us. Yards very stressed, even those with sprinkler systems. 

I understand your stress after going through a historic drought in Texas.  
Let’s hope the pattern breaks up and gives us all a wet Fall.  
69*. Topping out at 93* today. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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In other news, I've been hearing the wx hasn't been ideal over the holiday weekend back home.  Cloudy, cool temps held day time highs yesterday in the upper 60's close to the lake.  ORD only topped out at 70F which is rather chilly and I'm sure it brought that autumn feel in the air.  

On the flip side of things, PHX topped out at a Balmy 109F yesterday and might be a bit warmer today (110F).  Sadly, a group of hikers went on a trail not far from where I am located and ran out of water and one person died.  They said the group got lost and ran out of battery life on their phones and had to wait for other hikers to call 911.  I just don't understand why hikers don't heed the warnings of hiking in this Heat.  

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We were fortunate this holiday and blessed with both good temps and some rain.  
After this summer there were few complaints.  
I understand others disappointment but it sure was needed. 
We’ll be in the low 90’s this week. Sunny.   Typical this time of year. No complaints.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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6 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

A positive change has popped up on some models today, regarding the weekend.  They all had been showing nothing more than a front sweeping through the region with some light rain.  However, this morning's Euro dug the upper low more and held up the front, leading to a soaking rain for my area.  Now, tonight's GFS and Canadian are suddenly showing something similar.  I hope this isn't a one day/run wonder because this area really needs a good soaking.

Same w/ my forecast. Now showing a soaking rain, especially, late Saturday nite into all day Sunday and possibly lasting into early Monday. An actual storm system would feel great for a change.

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Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 71/58 there was a reported trace of rain fall and a reported 5% of possible sunshine. The overnight official overnight low at Grand Rapids since midnight has been 61 here in MBY the low was 62 at the current time it is 63 here and cloudy. The average H/L at Grand Rapids is now down to 77/57 the record high of 97 was set in 1954 and the record low of 36 was set in 1962. Today looks to be another mostly cloudy day we shall see if the high indeed makes it into the mid 70’s

 

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I like a cloudy, cool day once in a while, but this pattern needs to vamoose.  This is day four waking up to a thick shield of low clouds.  The garden needs sun.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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From Salt Lake City NWS:

The high of 105F so far at SLC airport breaks the
all time record high for September that was set just yesterday.
Many other locations are breaking records for the month of
September, and highs are starting to get precariously close to
annual all time records, something that should be practically
unheard of at the beginning of meteorological fall.
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Models are still trying to work out the details of the weekend upper low.  The latest GFS and Euro have widened the gap, with the GFS shifting well northeast and faster and the Euro west and slower.  The GFS would drop very little rain around here while the Euro dumps a major soaker across Iowa with several inches possible in a few spots.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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PHX topped out at 110F yesterday and that looks to be the last of the 110's of the year.   This marks the 22nd day of 110F+ temps (21 days is normal) and today is the last day of the Excessive Heat warning.  It's been a hot stretch but it really wasn't that bad, except when your having drinks outside by the pool, then you really feel it!  Had a wonderful time with friends over the weekend.  Looking forward to the cool down into the 90's and possible tropical moisture this weekend from Hurricane Kay.

 

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We have fog and a smoky smell in the air from the fires out west.  Today and tomorrow look to be the end of the heat wave with big changes Friday through the weekend.  I coach 7th and 8th grade football, and we had our first games yesterday at Kearney Catholic.  The games were at 5 and 7 pm.  Temperature at 5 PM yesterday was 96 degrees with 0 wind and a dew of about 60.  Tough conditions for sure.  We won both games.  Never feels quite as hot or cold after a victory.

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0z EPS...looks like an I-80 special in the works...anyone north of it from NE to the GL's look like a soaker is on the way...

 

image.png

 

What happens next is something that'll keep our Sub very active.  I'm starting to see the models keep trending towards a more volatile pattern as we approach the Autumnal Equinox.  The warm waters in the NE PAC could be playing a role.  The EPO forecast is a clue that there will be storms traversing the central CONUS with many up and down temps.  The second season for Severe Wx???  I believe this month will break the seal for those who have been dry all summer long.  @OttumwaSnomowyou may finally reap those rewards from nature in the coming weeks as well as those in NE.

 

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Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 76/61 there was no reported rain fall and the sun was out 24% of the time. The overnight low here in MBY and officially at GRR was 56. At the current time it is clear and 59 here in MBY. For today the average H/L is now down to 77/56 the record high of 96 was in 1960 and the record low of 38 was in 1986. The rest of this week looks to continue to have great early fall weather.

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Now for a little change of pace...did you know that some people suffer weather related and climate related anxieties and phobias? Yes, it's true! Pretty interesting stuff.

For example, here are a number of recognized weather phobias:

  • Ancraophobia, Fear of Wind
  • Astraphobia, Fear of Thunderstorms
  • Chionophobia, Fear of Snow
  • Lilapsophobia, Fear of Severe Weather
  • Nephophobia, Fear of Clouds
  • Ombrophobia, Fear of Rain
  • Thermophobia, Fear of Heat

Related to climate we have eco-anxiety. Per Wikipedia:

"Eco-anxiety (short for ecological anxiety and also known as eco-distress or climate-anxiety) has been defined as "a chronic fear of environmental doom".[1] Extensive studies had been done on ecological anxiety since 2007, and various definitions remain in use.[2] Another widely cited definition is: "the generalized sense that the ecological foundations of existence are in the process of collapse."[3]"

Myself, I have a fear of endless snowless winters...lol! 🥴 Fortunately, coping strategies are available for this and other related weather induced anxieties!

 

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Finally, KDWU is online! I don't know if they had to replace the station or just repaired it. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 52
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 6/23, 6/25, 6/29, 7/3, 7/4, 7/5, 7/14, 7/16, 7/30
8/1, 8/2, 8/8, 8/16, 8/17, 8/29, 8/30, 8/31, 9/6, 9/21
9/24, 9/27, 

Severe storms: 4
Max High: 98 (feels like 106 on Aug 30)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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This morning's GFS and, especially, the Canadian, are greatly improved this weekend into early next week.

12z Canadian

image.thumb.png.abc9f048175d945c993edd31f5067a04.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just as we had all models on board a major soaker for my area, the Euro turns into a disaster.  This run is so strong and cuts the upper low off so far west, and stalls it there, it leads to the southeast third of Iowa getting dry-slotted with little to no rain at all.  Meanwhile, the deformation zone dumps widespread major rain just nw.  I will be super po'd if it pans out this way.

This totally looks like a winter snow map.

image.thumb.png.9d4fda59f6a7546ff93920a099c3248e.png

 

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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