September 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

It's that time of year when we start think about Autumn and Pumpkin Spice latte's...well, at least some of you do while other's continue to see "endless summer" conditions???  Who will see summer continue?  Who see's some shots of Autumnal weather?  Will the Tropics continue to avoid the US?   An interesting month lies ahead and I suspect there will be some twists and turns as most of the Sub will start off the month on the warmer side of things but then I see the beginning signs of the La Nina pattern taking shape across W/NW Canada by Week 3-4 of the month.  Let's discuss....

The CFSv2 suggests a seasonal look for the southern half of the US and rather wet...

 

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, Tom said:

It's that time of year when we start think about Autumn and Pumpkin Spice latte's...well, at least some of you do while other's continue to see "endless summer" conditions???  Who will see summer continue?  Who see's some shots of Autumnal weather?  Will the Tropics continue to avoid the US?   An interesting month lies ahead and I suspect there will be some twists and turns as most of the Sub will start off the month on the warmer side of things but then I see the beginning signs of the La Nina pattern taking shape across W/NW Canada by Week 3-4 of the month.  Let's discuss....

The CFSv2 suggests a seasonal look for the southern half of the US and rather wet...

 

Looks nice in the Ohio Valley!

Cool September, maybe a warm October and back and forth? I am curious how December plays out this year. Want to see what an average one is like here. 

[Tom]

31 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Looks nice in the Ohio Valley!

Cool September, maybe a warm October and back and forth? I am curious how December plays out this year. Want to see what an average one is like here. 

My 1st guess is that DEC will be a bonafide start to Winter over the East. I'm seeing a lot of blocking near Greenland this coming cold season.  Throughout this year, the high lat blocking has been consistently cycling over and over.  I don't see this pattern going away anytime soon.  The question will be, how strong or weak does the PV develop this NOV/DEC??

[Timmy Supercell]

42 minutes ago, Tom said:

My 1st guess is that DEC will be a bonafide start to Winter over the East. I'm seeing a lot of blocking near Greenland this coming cold season.  Throughout this year, the high lat blocking has been consistently cycling over and over.  I don't see this pattern going away anytime soon.  The question will be, how strong or weak does the PV develop this NOV/DEC??

December was a massive torch but if you single out January, that was a pretty cool and snowy month.

February was only a +1 or so on departure. I think its interesting my biggest snowstorm happened in March though, and that was a warm month.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

December was a massive torch but if you single out January, that was a pretty cool and snowy month.

February was only a +1 or so on departure. I think its interesting my biggest snowstorm happened in March though, and that was a warm month.

I'll be interested to see how the SER develops this season given the anticipated high lat blocking it could suppres it fairly far south as winter rolls on.  Could get pretty interesting for your area mid/late winter.  That NE PAC ridge will make things interesting.  Let's enjoy Autumn before we get into the real colder months.  I'll be leaving Arizona soon and be back in Chicago next month.  Looking forward to 70's and cool 50's at night.

[james1976]

Nothing of importance but being up here in MN a lot now I've noticed some leaves already turning color. Caught my attention the last few days driving around the northern TC burbs. Bit earlier than down in Iowa. 

[Tom]

Tracking our first Autumnal-like storm??  The 9/9 - 9/12 period has my attn for a hard cutter that'll put an end to the heat over the Plains for a little bit.  There should be a severe wx outbreak for the Upper MW/Plains states during this period.  The clash of airmass's looks like it'll fire up some atmospheric fireworks.  The flip towards a -EPO is also a key ingredient that'll charge up and push an Autumnal airmass down south post 11th/12th period.

 

 

[Tom]

Welcome to the 1st day of Met Autumn everyone!  Fall is the in Air...well, not exactly...but for most of you up north it certainly already has felt like autumn (kinda jelly).   The reality is, most of us have/are dealing with the "summer roast" as the Summer Ridge pattern has fired up and will continue through the next week to 10 days until a big shift in the pattern takes hold as we will likely be tracking a significant storm.

Before then, we have the big holiday weekend coming up and the weather looks splendid from MN/IA and points East.  The overnight 0z Euro has cooled temps to a more comfortable level as it drags the CF down farther south compared to recent days.  While Friday will be a bit toasty, the rest of the holiday weekend looks great (Sat is the question mark how fast the front makes its way through Chicago) into mid next week.

 

 

The EPS is not backing down advertising a "hook" block over North America in the Week 2 period...

 

September is an interesting month where we see the Tropics interact with signs of Autumn.  There is a high likelihood of a strong E PAC Tropical storm to develop just west of Mexico and track near Cabo San Lucas during the 7th/8th timeframe and then up due N into AZ/NM.  This is going to provide another round of heavy Monsoonal moisture for the 4 corners region.  What happens next is a question mark..???  How does this energy interact with the PAC NW system tracking through the N Rockies??  How does the Blocking pattern influence these pieces of energy???  So many variables at play will keep us busy watching the models.  Fun times ahead!

 

[westMJim]

Welcome to meteorological autumn. In looking back at meteorological summer 2022 at Grand Rapids it would be hard to find another summer more typical (average) than the summer of 2022. The mean temperature each month was less that 0.5° above average (less then 0.5 above or below average is considered “average”) At Grand Rapids June was +0.3, July was average and August was +0.3. for the summer season there were 7 days at or above 90 the highest was 95 on June 21^st the lowest was 45 on June 4^th There was 11.35” of rain fall.  Grand Rapids had 71% of possible sun in June and 57% in July (will get the August total later) there were only 4 thunderstorms in June and 8 in July August is not yet available. Remember a “thunderstorm can be just one flash of lightning or one rumble of thunder)

For yesterday the official H/L was 80/61 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 95% of the time. For today the average H/L is down to 79/58 the record high of 97 was in 1953 and the record low of 40 was way back in 1896.

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies are suggesting the La Nina pattern to fire up over W NAMER come Week 2 through 4.  How much will the warm waters that have blossomed in the NE PAC influence these systems?  Check out the image of the SST's below of the surging warm waters in the NE PAC and NW PAC.

 

What I find interesting is how much the GOM & Caribbean regions influence the U.S. pattern in Week 2.  There will be rising motion over this region and troughs hugging the southern Tier of the US.  A very wet pattern is poised to set up across the CONUS and a pocket of cooler temps over TX/Gulf States.  Farther north a warmer pattern takes shape up until the 11th/12th period when I believe signs of Autumn influence the pattern.

 

 

 

Week 3-4...Greenland Block continues and will allow for a pathway of systems to traverse W NAMER down into the PAC NW cooling the west coast.  Not a real big signal for warmth for our Sub for the later half of SEP.  It appears the Tropics may really quiet down during the 2nd half of the month.  Wouldn't that be a smack in the face for the Climate Change worriers if there were ZERO hits for the US??  #NatureRules...(not humans)

 

Temps...

 

Precip...

 

 

[westMJim]

32 minutes ago, Tom said:

The JMA weeklies are suggesting the La Nina pattern

In going back to 1950 I can only find two times when there were La Nina conditions in 3 years in a row. 1974,75,76 and 1999, 2000 and 2001. There have been a couple more with back to back La Nina's 

[CentralNebWeather]

More and more nights dropping into the 50's.  Irrigation season ended for the most part yesterday.  Our dews now really begin to drop as the corn starts to dry out and is not putting off water.  Looks like by Sunday morning, lows could be down close to 50.  Heat comes back next week, but hopefully with lower dews.  As @Tomhas said, it is the Sept. 9th and later time frame that we may start to see more signs of a cooler and wetter pattern in the Central Plains.

[hawkstwelve]

Last night while we were sitting outside a huge flock of birds was flying from north to south. The line of birds lasted at least 30 minutes. A surefire sign that seasons will be starting to change very soon! Interestingly, there is a group that has been using data from weather radars to study bird migrations. Kinda cool!
 

A quick look back at summer. For the period between 6/1-8/31, it looks like this summer will be the 18th hottest on record with an average max high of 85.6. We had 29 days that ended up > 90 degrees over that period. I'm not sure how that stacks up with our normal amount of 90+ days (anyone know where to find that type of info?) but coming from the PNW, it seems like a lot! Also, some slight good news - even with each month in the JJA period being below normal in precip, we still don't rank among the top 20 in driest summer periods. So that's nice!

 

It looks like more of the same as we move into September, with the CPC predicting above normal temps and below normal precip for the month as a whole. Although as alluded to by Tom above and the ensemble graphs I shared yesterday, I wouldn't be so quick to assume the second half of September will follow that same script.
 

It appears there is growing consensus among the EPS members to drop 850s well below normal around mid-September while precip chances also seem to greatly increase during that time. And contrary to the GEFS charts from yesterday, we are starting to see signs of at least some members picking up on that same signal. Here's the 00z run from the EPS last night (top) and the 06z GEFS run from this morning (bottom)...

 

Overall I am getting the feeling that September will be a tale of two halves, with the first half being warmer/drier than normal and the second half being cooler/wetter than normal. I for one certainly welcome an early start to fall!

[tStacsh]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

The JMA weeklies are suggesting the La Nina pattern to fire up over W NAMER come Week 2 through 4.  How much will the warm waters that have blossomed in the NE PAC influence these systems?  Check out the image of the SST's below of the surging warm waters in the NE PAC and NW PAC.

 

What I find interesting is how much the GOM & Caribbean regions influence the U.S. pattern in Week 2.  There will be rising motion over this region and troughs hugging the southern Tier of the US.  A very wet pattern is poised to set up across the CONUS and a pocket of cooler temps over TX/Gulf States.  Farther north a warmer pattern takes shape up until the 11th/12th period when I believe signs of Autumn influence the pattern.

 

 

 

Week 3-4...Greenland Block continues and will allow for a pathway of systems to traverse W NAMER down into the PAC NW cooling the west coast.  Not a real big signal for warmth for our Sub for the later half of SEP.  It appears the Tropics may really quiet down during the 2nd half of the month.  Wouldn't that be a smack in the face for the Climate Change worriers if there were ZERO hits for the US??  #NatureRules...(not humans)

 

Temps...

 

Precip...

 

 

Climate isn't weather.  You'd think you would know that.  And I do not wish catastrophic hurricanes on anyone.   

[Tom]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Climate isn't weather.  You'd think you would know that.  And I do not wish catastrophic hurricanes on anyone.   

Climate is the culmination of weather over a long period...I also do NOT wish destructive hurricanes upon anyone and did not emphasize a specific CAT 1, or 2, or 5...it appears you didn't comprehend my post.

[Timmy Supercell]

I think Ashland must be ordering a new weather station. I was told on facebook there was some equipment failure with KDWU on Charleston NWS page. 

Their last full observation was during or after a t'storm on August 26. Did lightning hit their equipment? LOL

So I have no idea what our highs and lows have been.

[Phil]

Still waiting for autumn here.

8 of the last 9 days have been at/above 90°F, now 37 such days this summer. Looks like we’ll continue to add to that total over the next 2 weeks. 🫤

[Grizzcoat]

Hawkstwelve said -- "A quick look back at summer. For the period between 6/1-8/31, it looks like this summer will be the 18th hottest on record with an average max high of 85.6. We had 29 days that ended up > 90 degrees over that period. I'm not sure how that stacks up with our normal amount of 90+ days (anyone know where to find that type of info?) but coming from the PNW, it seems like a lot!"

 

The mean #of days at KFSD area that max temp rises to 90F or greater is 23F since records started in 1893. The max # of days  is 66 in 1894 and the min is 1 in 1915. Screenshot of the last 30 years from Jan-Dec.

 

[Grizzcoat]

to the above for KFSD area-- also, so far 2022 is tied for 35th all time for # of 90F+ days.

[hawkstwelve]

14 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Hawkstwelve said -- "A quick look back at summer. For the period between 6/1-8/31, it looks like this summer will be the 18th hottest on record with an average max high of 85.6. We had 29 days that ended up > 90 degrees over that period. I'm not sure how that stacks up with our normal amount of 90+ days (anyone know where to find that type of info?) but coming from the PNW, it seems like a lot!"

 

The mean #of days at KFSD area that max temp rises to 90F or greater is 23F since records started in 1893. The max # of days  is 66 in 1894 and the min is 1 in 1915. Screenshot of the last 30 years from Jan-Dec.

 

 

4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

to the above for KFSD area

Super big thanks for looking into this. Looks like you used the same ACIS tool that I used before to check the max temps for JJA. Didn't know it could be used for that too. I'll have to dig into it a bit more and play around with different numbers. Thanks again!

[Grizzcoat]

Des Moines 2022--= 21st warmest summer on record. 1878 must be thrown out due to insuff data. But man-- the 1930's = OUCH

[Grizzcoat]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

Super big thanks for looking into this. Looks like you used the same ACIS tool that I used before to check the max temps for JJA. Didn't know it could be used for that too. I'll have to dig into it a bit more and play around with different numbers. Thanks again!

Hawkstwelve-

Just goto  'Monthly summarized data' - than goto MAX TEMP ( MIN TEMP or whatever)  and then NUMBER OF DAYS and adjust accordingly.  This site has a plethora of data when you figure out how to use it how it was designed.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Still waiting for autumn here.

8 of the last 9 days have been at/above 90°F, now 37 such days this summer. Looks like we’ll continue to add to that total over the next 2 weeks. 🫤

You'll be doubling my number of those. Though I'd guess my number of days over 88-89 a little higher.

[Iceresistance]

I had an absolute gullywasher earlier, picked up .5 inches in under 1 hour! I'm now up to .75 for today.

[Tom]

Might see some action, but not the kind you'd want to experience...

Blowing Dust Advisory

BLOWING DUST ADVISORY
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1016 AM MST FRI SEP 2 2022

AZZ537-540-542>544-546-548-550-551-030500-
/O.NEW.KPSR.DU.Y.0020.220902T2300Z-220903T0500Z/
400 PM MST FRI SEP 2 2022
Northwest Valley-Buckeye/Avondale-Deer Valley-Central Phoenix-North
Phoenix/Glendale-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley-East Valley-South
Mountain/Ahwatukee-Southeast Valley/Queen Creek-

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
MST THIS EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 8
PM MST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Visibility between one quarter mile and one mile in
blowing dust expected.

* WHERE...The Northwest Valley of the Phoenix Metro Area,
Buckeye/Avondale, Deer Valley, Central Phoenix, North
Phoenix/Glendale, Scottsdale/Paradise Valley, The East Valley
of the Phoenix Metro Area, South Mountain/Ahwatukee and
Southeast Valley/Queen Creek.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced
visibility. Freeways most likely to be affected include the 202
San Tan, 202 South Mountain, 101 Pima, 303, and I-10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility. If you encounter
blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it
approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your
vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep your
foot off the brake pedal.

[Tom]

The storm has weakened but still producing a bunch of dust and winds…

 

[Andie]

The projected cool and wetter pattern in Texas is certainly welcome.  
We received several nice thunder showers today.

Temps stayed moderately warm but Fall-like for us at 83. 
Tomorrow will rise to 92.  Lows in low 70’s. 

[Tom]

Thinking of Fall??  I came across this fall foliage prediction map where you can adjust the dates for an idea of when the leaves will be changing.

https://smokymountains.com/fall-foliage-map/

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 84/65, there was no rain fall and there was 62% of possible sunshine. The overnight low both here and at GRR was 64. For today the average H/L is 78/58 the record high of 95 was set in 1898 and again in 1953 the record low was a frosty 32 set in 1946. We have had many great days this warm season. One has to wonder if we will “pay” for this later in the year.

[Tom]

Let it Snow, Let it Snow...while we bake out west over the Labor Day weekend, I got Snow on my mind (I'm sure some of you do also).  What a splendid holiday weekend of weather expected across the MW/GL's region.  You can't ask for a better scenario as HP dominates the weather pattern.  Aside from the CF thats making its way South through WI/IA right now, it'll pave the way for wonderful weather for the rest of the long weekend.  

On the cool side of nature, the weather pattern about to hold across the northern parts of North America are quite intriguing.  The people that live up there typically have a short window to prep for Winter as Summer comes to a close.  This year, some places never really had a Summer (esp near Baffin Bay and Eastern Canada) and parts of Alaska that have already seen snow in August.  Snow will be a common theme for the northern lats this month as Winter makes its return for the upcoming Winter season. 

All the climate models are suggesting Canada to fill up with snow and it looks to begin later next week.  It's about that time to Build the North American Glacier.  Interestingly, its likely not a coincidence, but the region that has been seeing troughiness throughout Summer will see a significant snowfall up near the Baffin Bay/W Greenland region.

 

0z Euro...

 

06z GFS..

 

0z LR GEFS singing the same tune....

The CFSv2 through Sept 15th...

 

 

By Oct 1st....

 

How will this expansion of the Snow cover extent across Canada/Alaska effect our weather down south??  As my mind ponders of the idea of cooler days ahead, we will have to endure the warmer days in the near term before getting into an Autumnal pattern.  What are your thoughts on this years Foliage?  Will leaves drop early or late...or on time??  I gotta feeling that the Upper MW/GL's region will see nice colors and generally an average Foliage season.

 

 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Dew points have dropped overnight. Temp at 56 with dew of 50 as of 7:45 am. Temp tonight into the mid 40’s, yeah, with light winds and low dews. 

[Andie]

73. Partly Cloudy in No Texas. 
High of 91.  
Scattered showers possible.  
Pretty good for us in September.  

[james1976]

Up here in the TC for the long weekend. Sun and mid 70s for highs and 50ish for overnight lows expected. Nice! Definitely having a fire tonight.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Welcome  to Sept.. more of same in Southeast  Iowa. 

91 on Wednesday 

89 on  Thursday 

93 on Friday

Saturday??  Dry cold front wind shift. Dewpoint  still 69.   Next 8 day I suspect  temperatures  under forecast. 

 Probably   a string of 10 days near 90. Which compared to avg is worst heat of the year!

 

Did get .09 from a unusual  unpredicted  pop up yesterday  about a quarter mile wide. Heres a pic of it. A rare sight indeed. Bubbling cumulus once every 3 months? Pathetic. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Dews in the 40’s. Absolutely loving this Saturday weather. 

[OKwx2k4]

I'm the cool kid over here in eastern OK at 83 degrees. What a beautiful day. 

Watching OU play with a field temp around 105 looks tough. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Dew point of 43 at 5 pm. Wow. 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

5 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Dew point of 43 at 5 pm. Wow. 

At around that same time, the DP was about 66 here with an air temp of 102.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 85/64 there was a trace of rain reported at GRR and there was 77% of possible sunshine. Here in MBY I recorded 0.05” of rain fall. The overnight low at GRR looks to be the current temperature of 64 here at my house the overnight low and current temperature is 65. For today the average H/L is now down to 78/57 the record high of 94 was set in 1898 and 1925. The record low of 38 was set in 1924. The next several days look to be near or just above average for early September. It looks to be on the dry side.

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like we may have dropped to a low of 46 this morning as of around 6 am. 

[Niko]

Its a cloudy day today w/temps hovering in the low 70s. A taste of Autumn in the air. A nice batch of steady rainfall just south of Detroit is having a hard time moving north. This would be some nice needed rainfall. Hopefully, it makes it up here.

Btw: Most residents now have their power restored here in S MI. Some were w/o power for nearly 5 days.

[Andie]

Wonderful day of overcast skies and rain.  Temps in the 70’s.   
 

Sat outside at dusk and a flock of about 80 doves flushed out of a close by tree and flew in patterns overhead. It was so thrilling to see life come back after this drought.  
I can’t wait to see the herons, and occasional pelicans, fly overhead!

[Grizzcoat]

I'am stuck at work here in IA but I was supposed to be on my annual canoe challenge from International Falls to Lake Superior,,, not so mad at that but at this --- hot of the press-- seen them many times but this event looks like it would've been the best ever.

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 69/54 that was only the 3^rd time it has not reached 70 or better since June 1^st The other sub 70 days being 65 on June 8^th and a cool 62 on a wet August 13^th officially there was 0.03” of rain fall and a reported 1% of possible sunshine (not sure when that happened) The overnight low and current reading at GRR of 58. Here in MBY the low and current reading was a little warmer 60. For today the average H/L is 78/57 the record high of 92 was set in 1922 and again in 1954 the record low of 39 was set in 1950 and 1974. Last year  the H/L was 81/56.

 

[Tom]

Happy Labor Day!  Hope ya'll are enjoying a relaxing long weekend.  The weather back home hasn't been ideal with cloudy and at times rainy periods.  Looks more of the same today.  Meanwhile, out here we are definitely baking in the Heat!   Topped out at 109F yesterday and doing the same today.  The Excessive Heat Warning has been extended through Wed.  

Changes brewing??  The long awaited storm system during the 9th-11th period is locking in on the models and a Taste of Autumn is set to hit the Sub.  

Nice cool temps next weekend...Sun am lows off the 0z Euro...40's & 50's showing up more often...daytime highs next weekend may not get out of the 60's/low 70's for the GL's region.

 

As this system tracks through the N Rockies, the 1st snows of the season are heading for the Rockies...signs of Winter in the Lower 48!  This will not be the last as the 0z EPS is suggesting more of the same and storms begin to hit the PAC NW. #LaNina #AutumnIsHere

 

[Hawkeye]

Models have been trying to figure out the Baha hurricane for quite a while.  They've had the moisture dumping anywhere from Texas to California.  Well, the models have now settled on nobody getting the moisture.  Instead, the cyclone turns west into the cold water and dies.  The latest GFS and Euro have really dried out Texas over the next week or two.

[hawkstwelve]

Latest GFS run is showing 110 for Sioux Falls on Thursday which would tie our all-time record high. Fairly crazy for September.  Although it's most likely the result of this model's tendency to overmix the atmosphere, it still should be a toasty one either way. 

Luckily we drop down to normal/below normal temperatures very quickly afterwards. In fact it shows a high of 56 a week later. That would feel downright chilly.

[Mr Marine Layer]

Dewpoint of 71 F here in Fullerton. That's East Coast humidity. Washington DC shows 70 F.

[james1976]

Perfect weather all weekend long up here in the TC. Mid 70s and low 50s. Actually got down to 47 Sunday AM! We enjoyed a couple campfires in the backyard and some grilling. 

[Timmy Supercell]

On 9/3/2022 at 6:50 AM, Tom said:

Thinking of Fall??  I came across this fall foliage prediction map where you can adjust the dates for an idea of when the leaves will be changing.

https://smokymountains.com/fall-foliage-map/

Looking forward to it!