Popular Post Doinko Posted October 16, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 8 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Nakia Creek fire blowing up. 1 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Just now, Deweydog said: Nakia Creek fire blowing up. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Worst smoke yet, here in Victoria. First day of the event the air quality has actually been considered poor (we mostly lucked out with the low-level N/NW winds keeping surface air quality good). The winds were gusting all last night, ended up with a 62F low this morning. Having a low several degrees warmer than the average high on a clear October day feels pretty bizarre. In general, our climate has a lot of difficulty in producing lows greater than the average high or highs lower than the average low between April and October. They're much easier to come by November to March, it's much also easier to get highs lower than the average low in those months. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Can't believe we're talking about model runs showing low snow levels and feet of snow in the Cascades while also tracking smoke from fires and 80 degree temps around the region. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: It hasn't happened. SH is -0.2 on the latest daily obs. Has been for weeks. Daily Updates | Climate Concerns (wordpress.com) I really have no clue if the Hunga Tonga Ha'apai eruption has caused any warming at the surface... I haven't looked into it at all. But I should note that you can't dismiss the idea of any warming based off a single data point, using a single parameter, pulled from a single source. Really unscientific. Not saying that there is or isn't. What I am saying is that what you keep referencing here isn't really...evidence... 3 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cloud said: SEA hit 80 at noon. Wow… this feels downright oppressive for this time of year. Unreal. what the hell???? I look away from the obs for one moment and this. do we dare push 90F today?!? 1 2 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: what the hell???? I look away from the obs for one moment and this. do we dare push 90F today?!? probably the infinite number 88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 This run is more wet than the 00z and we've lost the -PNA! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Mid 80s in the east wind belt north of Covington-Maple Valley. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selkirks Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Such a weird smoke map right now. NE Seattle is fine while NW Seattle chokes, and all is well around Lake Sammamish, even though last night that was the worst place to be. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Just about into north bend right now and there’s no smoke here. Looks like it’s all north of Seattle for now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Unfortunately both the Nakia Creek and Siouxon fires are really blowing up with huge plumes now evident. This is producing thick smoke in portions of Clark County with even ash falling in localized areas. This explosive fire behavior is due to the strong offshore flow and low humidity. Nakia Creek fire was 20% contained as of early this morning. I would assume, but cannot confirm that those containment lines are holding now. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Unfortunately both the Nakia Creek and Siouxon fires are really blowing up with huge plumes now evident. This is producing thick smoke in portions of Clark County with even ash falling in localized areas. This explosive fire behavior is due to the strong offshore flow and low humidity. Nakia Creek fire was 20% contained as of early this morning. I would assume, but cannot confirm that those containment lines are holding now. Air quality hasn't been too bad here so far, Airnow says 41 so I hope it stays that way 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Meatyorologist Posted October 16, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, selkirks said: Such a weird smoke map right now. NE Seattle is fine while NW Seattle chokes, and all is well around Lake Sammamish, even though last night that was the worst place to be. Okay! So this is actually some really cool meteorology! The clearer air in NE Seattle is actually today's easterlies breaking through to the surface. Yesterday, when easterlies re-emerged, they carried with them smoke that built up in the Cascade Valleys for over a week. That's why it was so bad yesterday; it was a week's worth of smoke hitting us all at once! The easterlies breaking through to the surface here today isn't actually the same air. It's air aloft from Nevada and NorCal being forced to the surface by very strong ridging. Cleaner air, for sure. I can see and smell the difference here in the heart of it. But it's also much, much hotter air, heated adiabatically from 1000s of feet up! Very strong SW-NE temperature gradient over North Seattle. Low 70s in Ballard, mid-upper 80s in Lake City. 85F here at my place...88F just half a mile away!! 10 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Car thermometer says 86 in North bend right now. WTF. Also bizzare to see that the trees have not changed colors just look slightly brown. Colors were extremely good in Idaho/Montana. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selkirks Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Okay! So this is actually some really cool meteorology! The clearer air in NE Seattle is actually today's easterlies breaking through to the surface. Yesterday, when easterlies re-emerged, they carried with them smoke that built up in the Cascade Valleys for over a week. That's why it was so bad yesterday; it was a week's worth of smoke hitting us all at once! The easterlies breaking through to the surface here today isn't actually the same air. It's air aloft from Nevada and NorCal being forced to the surface by very strong ridging. Cleaner air, for sure. I can see and smell the difference here in the heart of it. But it's also much, much hotter air, heated adiabatically from 1000s of feet up! Very strong SW-NE temperature gradient over North Seattle. Low 70s in Ballard, mid-upper 80s in Lake City. 85F here at my place...88F just half a mile away!! Fantastic explanation and fascinating indeed! Thanks! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 All local weather stations in NE Seattle have a sharp DP drop and temp increase in the last few hours, with winds generally switching SE'ly where properly exposed. Textbook. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Textbook October Katabatic heatwave for SoCal, I should say... 2 4 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 30 minutes ago, Doiinko said: Can't believe we're talking about model runs showing low snow levels and feet of snow in the Cascades while also tracking smoke from fires and 80 degree temps around the region. This is going to be one of the all time great turnarounds. Seems like some on here have talked about this for a while now. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Lots of evacuations in progress. 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 83 here with a dp of freezing. Can't wait to see the plunge when the sun goes down. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Car thermometer says 86 in North bend right now. WTF. Also bizzare to see that the trees have not changed colors just look slightly brown. Colors were extremely good in Idaho/Montana. It will be interesting to see how the trees react to the coming crash. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 These don't mean much, but they're interesting. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 36 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: what the hell???? I look away from the obs for one moment and this. do we dare push 90F today?!? It already overperformed as many local meteorologists said we *could* push 80. It’s spiking everywhere. and with that, today will be the latest 80 ever on record. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Few stations along the foothills are recording mid to upper 80s. Whomp whomp. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 44 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I really have no clue if the Hunga Tonga Ha'apai eruption has caused any warming at the surface... I haven't looked into it at all. But I should note that you can't dismiss the idea of any warming based off a single data point, using a single parameter, pulled from a single source. Really unscientific. Not saying that there is or isn't. What I am saying is that what you keep referencing here isn't really...evidence... Single data point? That's an average of many locations. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 I just broke 70 here. DP at 53 with noticeable smoke but not as bad as yesterday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 43 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: This run is more wet than the 00z and we've lost the -PNA! -6? Wow! 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 82 at PDX 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Great analogs today. 1971 and 1956 are the top two for the pattern at day 8. Both multi year Ninas with +QBO. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Not good 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Just now, Doiinko said: Not good We post this at the same exact time. No. This is a fire storm now. We need the east winds to back off. We need the PDX-DLS gradient down to -3mb or less, then we will really see marked improvement. The 12z WRF 1.33km Hi-Res model forecasts the gradient to drop off more quickly after 2 PM and much weaker down to -2mb by 5 PM. I sure hope the model is correct. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: We post this at the same exact time. No. This is a fire storm now. We need the east winds to back off. We need the PDX-DLS gradient down to -3mb or less, then we will really see marked improvement. The 12z WRF 1.33km Hi-Res model forecasts the gradient to drop off more quickly after 2 PM and much weaker down to -2mb by 5 PM. I sure hope the model is correct. The SE’erly component is always a big sign that the gradient is rapidly shallowing. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The SE’erly component is always a big sign that the gradient is rapidly shallowing. Ya I noticed the smoke plume shifted just before the flare up...which has since died down. Lots of ash falling here. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 88F at my house! Unbelievable!! Where did this come from???!! Rocketing wayyyy past any and all expectations and it's barely 1pm 6 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 It was 70 when I got home around 5am. Doesn't TylerMode live near the Nakia fire? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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