August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

It got pretty hot in early June, and Vancouver Island has been hot all summer!

I see your point. I would feel cheated if we get a big heat wave because the cool pattern we've been in hasn't produced the kind of negative anoms it should....until now.

[Deweydog]

I sense a lot of hand-wringing to come as winter gets off to a relatively slow start, especially given how cool it was today/yesterday in Olympia.

[ShawniganLake]

It got pretty hot in early June, and Vancouver Island has been hot all summer!

Of course its all relative. People who live in Victoria think 80F is pretty D**n hot.  And its been pretty cool, even up here the last couple of days.   

[BLI snowman]

I sense a lot of hand-wringing to come as winter gets off to a relatively slow start, especially given how cool it was today/yesterday in Olympia.

It'll likely be a back-loaded winter anyways.

[Deweydog]

It'll likely be a back-loaded winter anyways.

Truly true.

[Jesse]

I sense a lot of hand-wringing to come as winter gets off to a relatively slow start, especially given how cool it was today/yesterday in Olympia.

 

I sense that you are hoping for such a thing. That kind of stuff is like Cialis for you.

[snow_wizard]

I sense a lot of hand-wringing to come as winter gets off to a relatively slow start, especially given how cool it was today/yesterday in Olympia.

It will be interesting to see how that plays out. 1983-84 and 1998-99 beg to differ. I would really like to see it hit more from midwinter on for a change though.

[snow_wizard]

It is interesting to look at winters following major El Nino.

 

1942-43 - Huge January blast with snow

1957-58 - Major January blast albeit short lived

1973-74 - Decent January cold snap

1983-84 - Massive December blast

1988-89 - Massive early Feb blast

1998-99 - Major December blast

 

Honorable mention (winters following not quite so strong Nino)

 

1992-93 - Consistent cold late Dec - Feb

2003-04 - Nice January blast with snow

2010-11 - Major November blast with snow / major late Feb event

 

Anyway... the chances of seeing Arctic air this winter are good.

[Jesse]

Yeah last night's 00z GFS looked warm. I like tonight's 00z GFS even better. 

 

I'm glad this isn't late Fall or Winter yet though. Let's get all of the West Coast Ridging out of the way right now into October.

 

 

 

Definitely worked out well for us the last few winters!

[snow_wizard]

No question the coming warm spell looks like a sharp quick hitter. I kind of like those. At this point the WRF shows impressive heat developing by Friday and then a major crash Saturday night with chilly onshore flow. It clearly shows quite cool air pooling up along the coast Friday night and Saturday waiting for the chance to spill inland Saturday night. Looks like a dynamic week with huge temperature swings.

[snow_wizard]

Definitely worked out well for us the last few winters!

You got that right.

[FroYoBro]

This is ABSOLUTELY going to be a great winter for snow and cold in the PNW.

[Jesse]

This is ABSOLUTELY going to be a great winter for snow and cold in the PNW.

Not if this annoying August troughing keeps ruining my boating plans! Every lost hour of sunshine is once less inch of snow you will see.

[Jesse]

We were in an El Nino the last few winters, the difference this winter is that we are headed into a weak La Nina at the very least.

The last couple winters that delivered down here (2013-14, 2010-11, 2008-09) all had periods of cool and wet weather/sharp troughing August-October.

 

Sure those years also had ridgy periods in that time frame, but they weren't wall to wall torches either. All had cool to average September/Octobers.

[ShawniganLake]

0z GFS and Euro are holding that troughing next week much farther north.  (This post is for Tim, as he is likely asleep already and missing tonight's Euro run.)

 

From Tonight

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016080800/ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

 

From Last night.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016080700/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

[Jesse]

0z GFS and Euro are holding that troughing next week much farther north. (This post is for Tim, as he is likely asleep already and missing tonight's Euro run.)

00z GFS was actually pretty deep with the trough early next week.

[ShawniganLake]

00z GFS was actually pretty deep with the trough early next week.

Quick hitter.  500mb heights are in the mid 580's by Tuesday afternoon. 

[Jesse]

Quick hitter. 500mb heights are in the mid 580's by Tuesday afternoon.

Thank God.

[ShawniganLake]

Thank God.

I have to root for a warm August.  My summer anomaly forecast depends on it. 

[ShawniganLake]

I will actually be out of town later this week.  So I am going to miss out on any heat we may see down here.  Heading up to our place in the South Cariboo.  Quickly approaching frost season up there.  I think the first freeze last year was around August 25th. 

[Jesse]

I will actually be out of town later this week. So I am going to miss out on any heat we may see down here. Heading up to our place in the South Cariboo. Quickly approaching frost season up there. I think the first freeze last year was around August 25th.

Is that near Prince George? Or not quite as far north?

[ShawniganLake]

Is that near Prince George? Or not quite as far north?

200 miles south of Prince George. Google "Watch Lake". If you're interested. Near the southern edge of the interior plateau. Elevation is near 3600ft.

[ShawniganLake]

Here is a picture I took when we were up there in July. It has been a very showery and unsettled summer up there. I took the picture off of our Sundeck on the front of the cabin. It's close enough to the lake that we can actually fish off of the deck, which is pretty cool. I have caught the odd fish while we are eating dinner.

[Phil]

It is interesting to look at winters following major El Nino.

 

1942-43 - Huge January blast with snow

1957-58 - Major January blast albeit short lived

1973-74 - Decent January cold snap

1983-84 - Massive December blast

1988-89 - Massive early Feb blast

1998-99 - Major December blast

 

Honorable mention (winters following not quite so strong Nino)

 

1992-93 - Consistent cold late Dec - Feb

2003-04 - Nice January blast with snow

2010-11 - Major November blast with snow / major late Feb event

 

Anyway... the chances of seeing Arctic air this winter are good.

I think you meant 1958-59?

 

It was 1957-58 that was the super-niño year (and it was terrible/warm in the PNW, up there with 2014-15 if not worse).

[Phil]

I don't think the models are handling the mid/late month pattern progression properly, just glancing at them. Almost like a reincarnation of late-June/early July there.

[TT-SEA]

Loving this weather... 80 degrees at 11 a.m. with a dewpoint of 64 and a good south wind that keeps it at a perfect comfort level. Wish we could get this at home sometimes.

 

[Jesse]

Don't we have a Midwest sub-forum?

[Anti Marine Layer]

The ULL is causing a rather June-like marine layer here in Southern California. This morning it was quite dark at 6:30 am, even though the sun rose 22 minutes before. Inland areas should eventually clear, but beaches look to stay socked in. Persistent troughing and ridging is becoming more common with climate change which means more droughts and more floods, depending on where the troughs and ridges decide to park themselves for a leisurely break.

[Deweydog]

What happened to next weekend's crash? Looks more like a fender bender all of the sudden.

[Front Ranger]

What happened to next weekend's crash? Looks more like a fender bender all of the sudden.

It recurved to the north.

[Front Ranger]

Don't we have a Midwest sub-forum?

Tim even has his own thread in this forum. I guess he needs another one specifically for his vacation.

 

Title suggestion: It's Always Sunny in Minneapolis.

[Deweydog]

It recurved to the north.

Outer bands can still be VERY nasty.

[TT-SEA]

Tim even has his own thread in this forum. I guess he needs another one specifically for his vacation.

 

Title suggestion: It's Always Sunny in Minneapolis.

Not Thursday!

[TT-SEA]

Major improvements on the 12Z Canadian and 12Z GFS.

[Geos]

Picked up 0.14" of rain overnight. Clouds and cool still this morning. Sitting at 58° - feels like September indeed!

[Jesse]

12z runs have been awful so far. Might have to keep waiting for our elusive cool August.

[Front Ranger]

12z runs have been awful so far. Might have to keep waiting for our elusive cool August.

 

Too soon...

[Jesse]

Too soon...

"Might" being the key word.

[Geos]

Another warm spell for this week. Down right hot on Friday.

 

 

 

[Jesse]

Another warm spell for this week. Down right hot on Friday.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016080812/gfs_T2m_nwus_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016080812/gfs_T2m_nwus_15.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016080812/gfs_T2m_nwus_19.png

The summer without a summer marches on. I can already feel the warm September taking shape to make up for all this.