August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

We'll see.  I was pretty amazed when I looked at the 12z WRF a few minutes ago.  The numbers are certainly better tonight.  But yeah....I get your drift.

 

 

12Z WRF was sunny for both Monday and Tuesday... just cooler with highs in the mid 70s.   

 

00Z WRF will show something similar but none of it might happen if the GFS is wrong about the trough zipping through BC.  

 

Either way it will cool down somewhat with the end of offshore flow.   That is a given.   Not really amazing.   

[Deweydog]

Models are struggling with the back side of this thing. Nothing new there.

[snow_wizard]

12Z WRF was sunny for both Monday and Tuesday... just cooler with highs in the mid 70s.   

 

00Z WRF will show something similar but none of it might happen if the GFS is wrong about the trough zipping through BC.  

 

Either way it will cool down somewhat with the end of offshore flow.   That is a given.   Not really amazing.   

 

The thing that was impressive was how fast the push plowed to the crest of the Cascades Sunday evening.  It actually showed more like around 70 for Monday.

[Front Ranger]

How weird you mentioned 1949 at the same time I did.

 

It's a popular year in such discussions. 

[snow_wizard]

It's a popular year in such discussions. 

 

The anecdotal evidence says the color was probably amazing that year.  Early frost and lots of sunshine in Sept and Oct.  A lot of places dropped to freezing on Sept 12, and then of course the mid October Arctic outbreak.

[Deweydog]

It's a popular year in such discussions.

December 1949 was definitely one for the ages.

[BLI snowman]

I dunno...all the photos I've seen from fall 1949 were in black and white.

Aw D**n. It probably won't snow this winter then

[snow_wizard]

December 1949 was definitely one for the ages.

 

Even that month was solid that winter.  A lot of quite windy days (for those who like that), big temperature fluctuations, a mini blast with snow around mid month, and then cold / snow on New Year's Eve.  A fabulous lead up to the big events in January.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Show them Brookings when they get hot! Personally I've never been there but plan to one day. 

 

I went to Brookings a few weeks ago and its gorgeous!

[snow_wizard]

Good write-up from Meteorologist Mark Nelsen on this upcoming Heat Wave. Here is what he's expecting.

 

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2016/08/16/heat-wave-update-hottest-of-summer-90s-at-coast/ 

 

The wind is going to be the big X factor in this.  Going to make forecasts tricky for some places.  Just how sharp the cooling will be early next week is tricky also.  The WRF is pretty impressive with that.  It even shows some temps dropping into the 30s in the north WA Cascades by Monday morning.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is actually the same or slightly cooler than the GFS early next week.  All of the streaks like 80+ for Seattle, 85+ for PDX, and 90+ for Eugene should come to an end on Monday if the models are correct.  The ECMWF is particularly interesting as it has surface pressure signatures that would surely equate to Arctic air in the winter in the 5 to 9 day period.  It will be interesting to see if we can score low enough dps at some point next week to get decent low temps in spots.

[Geos]

Looking toasty Friday...

 

 

That would be impressive to see Astoria challenge the record.

[Geos]

 

This is probably wrong and the exact opposite will happen. 

 

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice "Updated NMME: The NCAR CCSM4 is the only model that is predicting a cold 2016-2017 Winter Season for NA. Odds?"

 

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/765576656257945600

 

 

You know except the CFS, none of those are la Niña patterns.

[snow_wizard]

You know except the CFS, none of those are la Niña patterns.

 

Indeed.  Those models are almost certain to bust.  The CPC forecast looks reasonable to me.  They have northern tier west of the Great Lakes below normal this winter.

[Geos]

Indeed.  Those models are almost certain to bust.  The CPC forecast looks reasonable to me.  They have northern tier west of the Great Lakes below normal this winter.

 

Yeah I wouldn't bet on those warm models - not for this winter. I would expect at least normal temperatures in this region.

Would be nice to get the NE Pacific to cool off some more between now at late autumn.

[snow_wizard]

Another comment on the clipperesque trough early next week...

 

The ECMWF depicts that thing having some pretty chilly air wrapped up in it as it digs down through SE AK.  It could easily trend toward digging into southern BC / WA even more strongly in upcoming runs.  No question it could back off also.  The ECMWF in general is a really nice run as it has a ridge at 150W early next week.  No question a progression that would be really cold here in the winter.

 

Kind of an unseasonable progression of surface pressure anomalies being shown for the next week to 10 days also.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah I wouldn't bet on those warm models - not for this winter. I would expect at least normal temperatures in this region.

Would be nice to get the NE Pacific to cool off some more between now at late autumn.

 

Given the anomalies we've seen over the GOA this summer I would say at least one good blast is pretty likely here this winter.  There is also a strong precedent for major blasts the winter following a major El Nino.  A big winter could be in play, but it's way too early to go there yet.

[ShawniganLake]

Another comment on the clipperesque trough early next week...

 

The ECMWF depicts that thing having some pretty chilly air wrapped up in it as it digs down through SE AK. It could easily trend toward digging into southern BC / WA even more strongly in upcoming runs. No question it could back off also. The ECMWF in general is a really nice run as it has a ridge at 150W early next week. No question a progression that would be really cold here in the winter.

 

Kind of an unseasonable progression of surface pressure anomalies being shown for the next week to 10 days also.

Your last sentence kind of makes me wonder if the model is handling things very well at this point. We will soon find out. Seems like you're feeling a little better about things tonight.

[Phil]

Looks like we'll finally lose the WPAC forcing as we close out August and enter September. Both the 06z GFS and the 00z EPS both have subsidence returning there, so probably safe to predict a return to the default summer pattern at that time.

[GobBluth]

06 GFS looks much better for the crash early next week

[Geos]

Got some pretty good upwelling going on along the OR Coast.

 

 

 

 

Heat Watch issued.

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
506 AM PDT WED AUG 17 2016

WAZ504-507-509-511-512-555-556-558-559-181215-
/O.CON.KSEW.EH.A.0001.160818T2100Z-160821T0500Z/
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-
LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-
BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
506 AM PDT WED AUG 17 2016

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

* MAX TEMPERATURES...UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

* MIN TEMPERATURES...IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
SEATTLE METRO AREA.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE GROUPS LIKE THE ELDERLY AND THOSE WORKING OR
EXERCISING OUTDOORS MAY EXPERIENCE ADVERSE HEALTH EFFECTS SUCH
AS DEHYDRATION OR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE A
DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF
THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

[Jesse]

06 GFS looks much better for the crash early next week

00z Euro showed this as well.

[Phil]

Is this a joke? *Excessive heat warnings* for highs in the upper 80s/low 90s and lows in the upper 50s/low 60s?

[Deweydog]

Is this a joke? *Excessive heat warnings* for U80s-M90s highs & M50s-L60s lows?

You really don't know our climate.

[Phil]

You really don't know our climate.

There's no reason to issue an excessive heat warning for this.

 

A heat advisory, sure. Not everyone has AC up there. However, even those not acclimated to heat will handle dry, low 90s temperatures just fine so long as they're mindful.

[Deweydog]

There's no reason to issue an excessive heat warning for this.

We get it. It's been a hot summer where you live. You have the ultimate right of passage. If they gave out the purple heart for heat tolerance, you'd be the first recipient.

 

But 90's in an area where the vast majority of residents don't have air conditioning is pretty extreme.

[Phil]

We get it. It's been a hot summer where you live. You have the ultimate right of passage. If they gave out the purple heart for heat tolerance, you'd be the first recipient.

 

But 90's in an area where the vast majority of residents don't have air conditioning is pretty extreme.

It might be extreme climatologically, but still warrants a heat advisory at best. No one is going to keel over in low 90s temperatures w/ low humidity unless they're on an intentional dehydration strike or something.

 

Also, I never invoked myself. Irrelevant. I constantly rant about the Philly NWS issuing heat warnings whenever heat indices reach 100 degrees. Same problem..silly criteria.

[Deweydog]

It might be extreme climatologically, but still warrants a heat advisory at best. No one is going to keel over in low 90s temperatures w/ low humidity unless they're on an intentional dehydration strike or something.

 

Also, I never invoked myself. Irrelevant. I constantly rant about the Philly NWS issuing heat warnings whenever heat indices reach 100 degrees. Same problem..silly criteria.

It's a sick world.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I must admit, this is a time I wish I had AC... Gonna be just a tad warm. My location does quite well in these types of setups so these temps should be very close to verifying. 

 

 

[Phil]

It's a sick world.

The 12z GFS agrees. Sticks a fork in summer just as the nice index was about to go through the roof.

 

Or is about to, with that subsidence field returning.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's a sick world.

I think Phil has "Excessive Heat Warning" envy...

[Phil]

I think Phil has "Excessive Heat Warning" envy...

More like dewpoint delirium.

[Deweydog]

The 12z GFS agrees. Sticks a fork in summer just as the nice index was about to go through the roof.

 

Or is about to, with that subsidence field returning.

Is this a marine layer days thing?

[GobBluth]

The 12z GFS agrees. Sticks a fork in summer just as the nice index was about to go through the roof.

 

Or is about to, with that subsidence field returning.

What's the GFS picking up on that the other models are missing?

 

eta - disregard, you answered already.

[Phil]

Quite a shift in guidance regarding the tropical forcings moving into September. The WPAC gradient reverses towards the end of August, which will turn wave activity fluxes equatorward over the Northwest Subtropical Pacific.

 

Should lead to a reversal in the pattern over the western hemispheric midlatitudes, with a NEPAC/NW US trough and a downstream central US ridge.

[Jesse]

What's the GFS picking up on that the other models are missing?

 

eta - disregard, you answered already.

00z Euro ensembles weren't very bullish on a warm pattern returning in the 6-10 range either.

 

Now that the details of the heat event are getting sorted out, perhaps the models are getting a better idea of the post-game pattern.

[Jesse]

Quite a shift in guidance regarding the tropical forcings moving into September. The WPAC gradient reverses towards the end of August, which will turn wave activity fluxes equatorward over the Northwest Subtropical Pacific.

 

Should lead to a reversal in the pattern over the western hemispheric midlatitudes, with a NEPAC/NW US trough and a downstream central US ridge.

So a 1967 redux looking unlikely?

[Front Ranger]

Your last sentence kind of makes me wonder if the model is handling things very well at this point. We will soon find out. Seems like you're feeling a little better about things tonight.

He just needed a good vent and a model shift.

[Front Ranger]

We get it. It's been a hot summer where you live. You have the ultimate right of passage. If they gave out the purple heart for heat tolerance, you'd be the first recipient.

 

But 90's in an area where the vast majority of residents don't have air conditioning is pretty extreme.

Not really. A surprising number of homes here don't have AC (I think like 30-40%), and we get 90s all the time. Unless you have high humidity too, an excessive heat warning is just the NWS being drama queens.

[Deweydog]

Not really. A surprising number of homes here don't have AC (I think like 30-40%), and we get 90s all the time. Unless you have high humidity too, an excessive heat warning is just the NWS being drama queens.

Like I said, it's a sick world.