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September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Geos

By Geos
in West of the Rockies

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VancouverIslandSouth
VancouverIslandSouth

This has got to be the only place on the internet where a discussion about politics would be more civil and less heated than a discussion about ENSO or 2m temperature anomalies.

Bryant
Bryant

Although all the action is just south of us, that line of heavy precip is holding together nicely. Lightning will light up the room here and there. Started raining hard enough on the way home that I p

MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

The pic is from 1.5 years ago. We went up to crystal mountain. She loved the outdoors

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Nice sunset in Seattle.   You can also see downtown Bellevue shining in the setting sun (on the other side of Lake Washington) to the left of the radio towers.

 

http://s10.postimg.org/6lgzn0qqh/Untitled.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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I was going to mention that the Canadian has been showing the ridgy pattern for the weekend and early next week for several runs... and now the other models have followed.   Just giving credit where its due.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
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Very unusual / intriguing progression on the GFS in the 10 to 15 day period.  No wonder the models are struggling so mightily with the prospects for a strong surface high placed so far north over the GOA.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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VancouverIslandSouth Experienced

VancouverIslandSouth

Posted
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Looks like a few final showers are popping up this evening. Ended up being a pretty warm day here, not what I'd expected given the upper levels. I do wonder if the front on Friday will end up coming through stronger than currently shown. Recent runs have been trending toward a stronger front, though it's still shown to largely disintegrate as it hits the coast. Could easily end up being another 'surprise' that shows up in the 48-72 hour resolution.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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Looks like a few final showers are popping up this evening. Ended up being a pretty warm day here, not what I'd expected given the upper levels. I do wonder if the front on Friday will end up coming through stronger than currently shown. Recent runs have been trending toward a stronger front, though it's still shown to largely disintegrate as it hits the coast. Could easily end up being another 'surprise' that shows up in the 48-72 hour resolution.

 

 

WRF shows way more rain on Friday than the GFS:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_extended/images_d2/ww_pcp24.108.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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The GFS ensemble is in good agreement on a sharp, but brief warmup followed by a crash on the 30th or so.  Pretty dynamic stuff.

 

Meanwhile the temperature is finally really dropping here tonight.  Already down to 51 at 11PM.  I'm still hopeful for a low in the 30s this week.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Rather interesting the WRF has Friday being the chilliest day of the week before a massive warmup this weekend.  Kind of makes sense given the fact Thursday night is progged to be clear and then clouds and light rain dominate with a warm front on Friday.  If the model is correct some places could see high temps over 10 degrees below normal on Friday after a chilly morning. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

(FWIW/OT) Given the nerd I am, I couldn't resist adding a few improvements to my weather station today. I replaced the SHT15 sensor (and communicative board) with the new/improved SHT31 sensor and calibrated the new board to the updated requirements. I also finally managed to get the station properly located on the wundermap, but needed to request a new stationID to complete the process. So, there's a new link/ID for it now: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMDBETHE57#history

 

I plan to add a live streaming webcam(s) sometime within the next few months, as well as a few mobile/external temperature/humidity probes, snow-level sensors, and maybe even a visibility/cloud height sensor once I can afford it.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

New ECMWF weeklies are out. They're all over the place across the NPAC. That -EPO persists into week3 on the updated run, however.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

The ECMWF is pretty interesting.  A ridge quickly builds along the West Coast this weekend and then quickly retrogrades thereafter.  Probably two warm days.  It usually takes a day for warmth to be realized at the surface with a quick change like that.  The really interesting thing is how the massive surface high over the GOA / NE Pacific explodes around day 8.  I have never seen a year where that feature is so extreme and resiliant.  Very big deal if it continues this winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Abbotsford_wx Newbie

Abbotsford_wx

Posted
Posted

I think it was the first 40s of the year SEA last night.

 

51 here, though it rained most of the night. It's bright and sunny this morning, however.

 

With the warm period upcoming we'll likley finish around +1F for September.

 

I'm at 2.26" of rain for the month. Normal for September is 2.97". Still a chance of reaching that.

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

51 here, though it rained most of the night. It's bright and sunny this morning, however.

 

With the warm period upcoming we'll likley finish around +1F for September.

 

I'm at 2.26" of rain for the month. Normal for September is 2.97". Still a chance of reaching that.

95% of the region is currently below to well below normal for September, and will likely finish the month that way with several more cool days in the short term, and what is looking to be a short lived ridge followed by more cool weather the last few days of the month.

image.png

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Abbotsford_wx Newbie

Abbotsford_wx

Posted
Posted

95% of the region is currently below to well below normal for September, and will likely finish the month that way with several more cool days in the short term, and what is looking to be a short lived ridge followed by more cool weather the last few days of the month.

attachicon.gifimage.png

 

The map does show a warm sector here, but when you average it out it's been near to slightly below normal west of the Cascades.

 

It's certainly been cool east of the Cascades.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Posted

Friday is a mess on the 12Z ECMWF... dying front under building ridge and highs only in the 50s around Seattle with thick clouds and drizzle.  

 

Saturday is still pretty cloudy as well and only in the mid-60s.

 

Sunday and Monday look spectacular though.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Looks like onshore flow would be ramping up quickly by Monday afternoon, though.

 

Really tough to get north of the very low 80s now with nothing in the way of adiabatic support.

 

That is actually happening on Tuesday.    Highs are cut off in the middle of the day.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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