October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Not the smiley!

 

 

Yes!  

[MossMan]

I mentioned a pretty big shift on the 12Z GFS. It was significant for this weekend. Worth mentioning and not directed at anyone. Its an interesting and complicated pattern. I would have also mentioned the 12Z GFS if it shifted strongly toward very stormy weather this weekend.

 

Someone who has me on ignore responded immediately (without anyone quoting me) saying that the ECMWF was still strong with the weekend system and the GFS would shift that way... and included the smiley icon.

 

Interesting.

 

And actually incorrect based on the 00Z ECMWF.

Yeah he supposedly also has me on ignore...and has also replied to some of my posts. Whatever. I feel like the "ignore" function is kind of dumb anyway.

Anyway, dry morning so far!

[Farmboy]

I mentioned a pretty big shift on the 12Z GFS.   It was significant for this weekend.    Worth mentioning and not directed at anyone.   Its an interesting and complicated pattern.  I would have also mentioned the 12Z GFS if it shifted strongly toward very stormy weather this weekend.  

 

Someone who has me on ignore responded immediately (without anyone quoting me) saying that the ECMWF was still strong with the weekend system and the GFS would shift that way... and included the smiley icon.

 

Interesting. 

 

And actually incorrect based on the 00Z ECMWF.

I think you knew what you were up to.  Just as the other person knew what he was up to....   

[TT-SEA]

I think you knew what you were up to.  Just as the other person knew what he was up to....   

 

 

Actually not.   I saw a big change in the GFS.   I would report it either way... good or bad.   

[BLI snowman]

Radar is never coming back.

[Jesse]

I think you knew what you were up to. Just as the other person knew what he was up to....

Just reporting the models. When the Euro and EPS are more adamant on a rainy pattern it's probably not a good idea to jump on a few stray GFS runs.

 

GFS ensembles look wetter for the weekend as well.

[Jesse]

Radar is never coming back.

They are saying Thursday morning. Pretty bad timing though, with some fairly rainy systems moving through the next few days, and quite possibly this weekend too.

[Farmboy]

Just reporting the models. When the Euro and EPS are more adamant on a rainy pattern it's probably not a good idea to jump on a few stray GFS runs.

 

GFS ensembles look wetter for the weekend as well.

[Weather101]

[Timmy Supercell]

They are saying Thursday morning. Pretty bad timing though, with some fairly rainy systems moving through the next few days, and quite possibly this weekend too.

 

Did they say when they plan on upgrading KMAX? I wonder if we might get something pretty active down here and they somehow ruin it conveniently like they did with the Aug 2012 severe storm here.

[BLI snowman]

They are saying Thursday morning. Pretty bad timing though, with some fairly rainy systems moving through the next few days, and quite possibly this weekend too.

 

Don't count on it.

[Jesse]

Don't count on it.

I have plans that require heavy rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The long range operational GFS is very wet. Thank goodness!

[Front Ranger]

Radar is never coming back.

 

Apparently took the Euro with it.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows moisture plume lifting north early on Saturday... with dry, warm conditions for most places on Sunday. 

 

That basically agrees with its 00Z run.

 

Portland is pretty much dry from Friday morning through the entire weekend.     Heavier rain is focused on SW BC.  Looks like a humid pattern for western WA and OR (by October standards).

 

Monday and most of Tuesday also shown to be dry.

[TT-SEA]

If they don't fix the PDX radar in the next 48 hours... they will have about 5 extra days after that when it won't be needed.   

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF still showing an active pattern in the 8-10 day period.      But it has backed off what was shown to be an active pattern earlier.

 

Here is next Monday from the ECMWF when it was 10 days out...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls18/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls18-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-lXlgbn.png

 

 

And now Monday on the latest run...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls02/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls02-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-GcHmhV.png

 

 

It will be interesting if it continues to back off again or if it has a good handle on the pattern now.

[Deweydog]

You know what they say, even a broken radar is right twice a day...

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF shows Matthew getting right up to SE GA on Saturday morning before turning back around and weakening over the weekend east of Florida.  

 

Strange path.   

 

Looks like it's already weakened by the time it gets to GA, having hit the east coast of Florida.

[BLI snowman]

12Z ECMWF shows Matthew getting right up to SE GA on Saturday morning before turning back around and weakening over the weekend east of Florida.  

 

Strange path.   

 

Garbage model info most likely.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have only about 1.25" of rain on the month so we need more. If it didn't rain the rest of the month it would be a dry month!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z ECMWF shows moisture plume lifting north early on Saturday... with dry, warm conditions for most places on Sunday. 

 

That basically agrees with its 00Z run.

 

Portland is pretty much dry from Friday morning through the entire weekend.     Heavier rain is focused on SW BC.  Looks like a humid pattern for western WA and OR (by October standards).

 

Monday and most of Tuesday also shown to be dry.

 

Sounds like a very typical October pattern. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like it's already weakened by the time it gets to GA, having hit the east coast of Florida.

 

 

On the 12Z ECMWF it literally skirts the entire east coast of Florida and then follows the SE GA and SC coastline without weakening too much... then turns away and heads to the SE and out to sea.

 

An absolute worst case scenario track as far as damage area and number of people directly affected.

[TT-SEA]

Sounds like a very typical October pattern. 

 

 

Indeed.

[Timmy Supercell]

No kidding.  It hits the same spot in Florida twice.

 

 

90% chance someone turns that into a conspiracy theory...

[Front Ranger]

No kidding.  It hits the same spot in Florida twice.

 

 

Unusual, but such crazy tracks have happened before.

 

Regardless, looks like anywhere from FL to NC could be under the gun. Really surprised to hear this was the first major hurricane to strike Haiti in 50 years.

[Front Ranger]

This article has a bunch of examples of meandering, looping hurricanes: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/bizarre-hurricane-paths-20130807

[Trainwreck]

Rob, isn't it about time for you to start posting? We're in October now.

[Phil]

Getting worried about the Georgia Isles. That area is dear to my heart like nowhere else.

[Phil]

Notable similarities to 2010 on the latest modeling. Keeps trending stronger with the polar blocking as well.

[MossMan]

I have plans that require heavy rain.

Looks like you are out of luck this weekend unfortunately.

[luminen]

It was pouring like a tropical monsoon today in downtown Vancouver. Nice big drops of tasty rain. 

[snow_wizard]

I got my first sub 60 high today.  Cool damp day.

 

The 18z GFS shows the northern branch digging into the northern half of WA this weekend.  I hope that continues to trend cooler.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I got my first sub 60 high today.  Cool damp day.

 

The 18z GFS shows the northern branch digging into the northern half of WA this weekend.  I hope that continues to trend cooler.

 

56

51

56

55

 

To start the month here. 

[Trainwreck]

Jesse, you're really hittin the funny bone with Mark. He just did a new thread and indirectly referenced you, eerily familiar.

[Trainwreck]

Get a room already.........

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jessie, you're really hittin the funny bone with Mark. He just did a new thread and indirectly referenced you, eerily familiar.

 

Weenie meltdowns galore is my prediction for this winter!

[MossMan]

Lots of moderate rain at my house tonight.

[Deweydog]

Weenie meltdowns galore is my prediction for this winter!

And January will have 31 days.

 

But yeah, it's the first winter in a while with any irrational expectations. Some emotional calisthenics may be in order.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And January will have 31 days.

 

But yeah, it's the first winter in a while with any irrational expectations. Some emotional calisthenics may be in order.

 

We knew last year was going to suck. I see a 2011-12 or 2010-11 as kind of a best case scenario for this winter.