October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Interesting.  Guess I was focussing too much IMBY.  2" of snow here that winter.  We average 30".  2" would probably put it in the bottom 10 winters for snowfall here in the past century. 

 

It was a dud outside January, but the mid January 1963 airmass was historic for the entire West. Another nice arctic airmass a couple weeks later. And the winter was bookended by two historic windstorms.

[wx_statman]

Interesting.  Guess I was focussing too much IMBY.  2" of snow here that winter.  We average 30".  2" would probably put it in the bottom 10 winters for snowfall here in the past century. 

 

That's a surprisingly low amount for that winter! 

 

PDX had a 21/11 day in January 1963, and a separate Arctic airmass/snowstorm two weeks later. A total of 5.0" that month. Better than anything we've seen in January in a long time. 

[ShawniganLake]

On the other hand, more than the last few years combined!

Meh, not here.  We had 8" last Winter.  6" in December, 2" in January. 

[stuffradio]

Meh, not here.  We had 8" last Winter.  6" in December, 2" in January. 

Feb/March 2014 was when I had my last accumulating snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Cat 4 Typhoon Songda still looks amazing even as it accelerates northeast into the westerlies

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/westpac/storm/images/BASE-IMG3-2.23W.PNG

 

Current IR Loop

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/westpac/storm/movies/MOV3-2.23W.GIF

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/jma/nwpac/avn-animated.gif

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the Euro looks poised for us to get chilly just after day 10.  The day 10 map is ripe for it.

[ShawniganLake]

No doubt the Euro looks poised for us to get chilly just after day 10.  The day 10 map is ripe for it.

FWIW, I am feeling the likelihood of a late month cold snap. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles
HR 96 500mb
Here is a chart showing 20 different ensemble members solutions based off the 00z GFS run. Note how many show a low pressure area, perhaps deep/violent along the Oregon or Washington Coast. Around 10 out of 20. It's hard to make any real assessment. I'd want to see the hi-res MSLP low members first.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_0z/f96.gif

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Typhoon Songda has had a pretty annular look to it over the past couple days. Might explain the unexpected intensity and wouldn't be uncommon for storms of this strength that far north. It also managed to phase into major moisture taps to the south and west. The longer it stays at stronger than forecast intensities the more moisture will get lifted into the westerlies. With leaves still on most of the trees and heavy rain in advance this could turn out to be a very damaging storm for areas exposed to SE/SW winds. I'm actually getting a little worried about the prospects of property damage here in Victoria, which is very exposed to winds from both directions.

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/wpac/anim/latest72hrs.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

No doubt the Euro looks poised for us to get chilly just after day 10.  The day 10 map is ripe for it.

 

 

FWIW, I am feeling the likelihood of a late month cold snap. 

Frost on the ole pumpkin?

[Gradient Keeper]

Typhoon Songda has had a pretty annular look to it over the past couple days. Might explain the unexpected intensity and wouldn't be uncommon for storms of this strength that far north. It also managed to phase into major moisture taps to the south and west. The longer it stays at stronger than forecast intensities the more moisture will get lifted into the westerlies. With leaves still on most of the trees and heavy rain in advance this could turn out to be a very damaging storm for areas exposed to SE/SW winds. I'm actually getting a little worried about the prospects of property damage here in Victoria, which is very exposed to winds from both directions.

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/wpac/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Baroclinic zone around 40 N and a flat central Pacific ridge. Bad news for OR/WA/BC

[ShawniganLake]

Cat 4 Typhoon Songda still looks amazing even as it accelerates northeast into the westerlies

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/westpac/storm/images/BASE-IMG3-2.23W.PNG

 

Current IR Loop

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/westpac/storm/movies/MOV3-2.23W.GIF

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/jma/nwpac/avn-animated.gif

Looks incredibly symmetrical, considering its likely under a fair amount of shear. 

[Brennan]

This chatter is giving me goosebumps. I hope this excitement persiste throughout the fall/winter!

[BLI snowman]

With the incoming storms, Wednesday is pretty likely to be the peak of our fall color season. Going to be a lot of bare trees after this weekend.

[Phil]

Looks like a major -PNA to finish out the month on the 0z GFS. That SE ridge late in the run is insane. I think we will either see a chilly GOA ridge / Western trough pattern or an Arctic outbreak late in the month.

 

The storm being depicted on the models this weekend is incredible. Not sure I've ever seen a low that strong so close to the WA coast before. Interesting that the all important fine details indicate relatively minor winds over land while the winds offshore are near hurricane force.

 

The overall behavior we are seeing this month and the continually reappearing GOA ridge have me close to saying this will be the winter of the century so far. The boxes are all being checked for something great!

The NPAC/EPO progression during the d11-16 period looks terrible on the 00z GFS, IMO (not that it matters).

 

Have to be careful with that Aleutian ridge. If it goes flat, in the absence of wave driving, it sets up a +EPO hose job and can self maintain for weeks. We saw firsthand in 2007 what that can do to a winter.

[Deweydog]

With the incoming storms, Wednesday is pretty likely to be the peak of our fall color season. Going to be a lot of bare trees after this weekend.

I was thinking that this evening. Things really accelerated the last couple days, although things still seem a little sluggish compared to the pre-2014 normal.

[BLI snowman]

I was thinking that this evening. Things really accelerated the last couple days, although things still seem a little sluggish compared to the pre-2014 normal.

 

IDK, it seems like a lot of years in the past haven't really gotten going until mid to late October. If anything the color seems a bit above normal this year, at least locally. The drive down I-205 has been pretty nice the last couple weeks.

 

A drier, calmer descent into the season would of course be more optimal for maximizing color though.

[Phil]

00z ECMWF is a bomb with the second storm. Almost looks like a sting jet blasting right into OR.

[Deweydog]

00z ECMWF is a bomb with the second storm, no occlusion to speak of. Almost looks like a sting jet.

It's definitely a hybrid.

[Deweydog]

IDK, it seems like a lot of years in the past haven't really gotten going until mid to late October. If anything the color seems a bit above normal this year, at least locally. The drive down I-205 has been pretty nice the last couple weeks.

 

A drier, calmer descent into the season would of course be more optimal for maximizing color though.

Definitely better than the last couple years.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM

The NAM continues to be very aggressive with handling the first initial low on Thursday and important to note it's the only model as of now that is doing so. The hi-res 4km shows a tight 964mb low scraping north along the Washington Coast off Forks. CRAZY! Also, the 00z EC ENS was alarming. The MSLP ensemble showed that about half of the 51 members signaled the potential for a major wind storm compared to previous runs which only had 4 or 5.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016101200/nam4km_mslp_wind_nwus_42.png

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS
....Begins in 18 minutes....
Will the GFS continue to only show a coastal wind storm with post-tropical Songda? or will it trend towards the dangerous ECMWF? Any chance it trends towards the delusional NAM with a strong wind event/storm on Thursday too? The building tension is so thick you could literally cut it with a spoon.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS no changes. Not real surprising. Maybe 12z will trends towards the ECMWF. Maybe it won't

 

 

12z GFS begins in 5 hours 21 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

 3:53 AM Medford NWS Forecast Discussion

I am not trying to alarm or concern anyone, and I'm not inferring that they are either, but read this. In my opinion to me it seems like their forecasters might possibly be leaning towards the ECMWF.

 

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
333 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2016

The second wave is then expected to arrive Saturday, and although this second system may not have as significant of moisture content or precipitation as the first, it has all the potential of being a much stronger wind storm. Models have now consistently shown the development of a very deep surface low just offshore of the Pacific Northwest, which then goes through explosive cyclogenesis as it moves onshore. For example, the latest ECMWF shows a 13 mb drop in the pressure of the surface low during the 6 hours leading up to landfall along the Oregon and Washington Coasts. There are differences in the modeled track of this low, and those differences will have a big impact on where the main focus of the winds will be. However, as long as the center of the low tracks to our north, as nearly all model runs have suggested for the past few days, then Southern Oregon and Northern California will remain under the threat of very strong and potentially damaging winds.

 

In some eerie ways, this coming event appears very similar to the Columbus Day Storm of 1962. Aside from the similar dates, both have rapidly deepening surface lows following a similar track, and both arrive as part of a one-two progression of systems. Both also originate from the remnants of Western Pacific typhoons, in this case Typhoon Songda, which has already been swept into the Westerlies and is making its rapid progression east towards us. It should be understood that this does not mean we will definitely experience another historic storm such as the 1962 event, **but the potential is there, and preparations should be made for the possibility. Again, much can change over the next few days, and it is also possible that the weekend storm arrives as just another wet season system, but the potential for a very strong and destructive storm remains well within the realm of possibility.**

[Brennan]

Frost and then a line of rain/windstorms.. is it January?

[Jbolin]

Frost and then a line of rain/windstorms.. is it January?

[westcoastexpat]

06Z GFS run is really nothing to write home about. Pretty run of the mill. Seems like GFS in on its own at the moment.

[FroYoBro]

06Z GFS run is really nothing to write home about. Pretty run of the mill. Seems like GFS in on its own at the moment.

 

Yeah, the Euro is showing a severe windstorm while the GFS is just a breezy day down here. If I had to bet I would probably go with the GFS, but who knows? 

[TT-SEA]

Frost and then a line of rain/windstorms.. is it January?

 

 

Frost and rain/windstorms are pretty normal October phenomenon.

 

And we should not need be excited about frost in January.     Is this Jacksonville?   

[Brennan]

Frost and rain/windstorms are pretty normal October phenomenon.

 

And we should not need be excited about frost in January. Is this Jacksonville?

Frost and then rain and windstorms are pretty normal in October... but WAYYYYYY more common in January. . . It was a joke to begin with. I had a picture to go with it that I took this morning on my phone but the file size was apparently too big to upload.

[TT-SEA]

Frieda doesn't even show up as an analog for the typhoon.

 

That Tropical Tidbits site is pretty cool.  

[TT-SEA]

Frost and then rain and windstorms are pretty normal on October... but WAYYYYYY more common in January. It was a joke to begin with. I had a picture to go with it that I took this morning on my phone but the file size was apparently too big to upload.

 

 

I know it was a joke... just playing along.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the ECMWF ensemble mean on Saturday afternoon looks like the GFS.

[westcoastexpat]

Yeah, the Euro is showing a severe windstorm while the GFS is just a breezy day down here. If I had to bet I would probably go with the GFS, but who knows? 

 

Yeah I'm really not sure which camp I'm buying into. I'd say there's some truth between the GFS and the Euro... it's a complex scenario:

 

-If that jet isn't as strong as progged, the low is going to veer north well before it hits the coast.

-If the models aren't handling the capture of the Typhoon properly, there may be more of a kink in the jet, which could radically change the location it spits out to

-Even if the capture and jet are well modelled, I'm not impressed with the instability/lapse rates... really need those to be unstable enough to bring the strong upper-level gusts to the surface, although sustained winds would still be impressive

 

We're still in the medium range with this one, a lot can change. Like, a lot. I'm a little surprised to see some of the NWS discussion this far out... the wording being used seems a little aggressive for a medium range solution, in my opinion. If we're still seeing the Euro holding strong at 00Z Friday (no offense, but the NAM is complete garbage when it comes to this type of scenario--it always overdoes the cyclogenesis), then I would really be taking notice.

[westcoastexpat]

FWIW... the ECMWF ensemble mean on Saturday afternoon looks like the GFS.

 

Now that's interesting.

[westcoastexpat]

6z NAM

The NAM continues to be very aggressive with handling the first initial low on Thursday and important to note it's the only model as of now that is doing so. The hi-res 4km shows a tight 964mb low scraping north along the Washington Coast off Forks. CRAZY! Also, the 00z EC ENS was alarming. The MSLP ensemble showed that about half of the 51 members signaled the potential for a major wind storm compared to previous runs which only had 4 or 5.

 

 

12Z NAM run quite a bit weaker for the Thursday night system

 

[ShawniganLake]

FWIW... the ECMWF ensemble mean on Saturday afternoon looks like the GFS.

Not surprising. History would say the Oregon landfall is highly unlikely. I would bet on the northern half of Vancouver Island.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Got down to 39 this morning. Now ready for the rain. 

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Ensembles trended a bit more towards the ECMWF

[westcoastexpat]

Not surprising. History would say the Oregon landfall is highly unlikely. I would bet on the northern half of Vancouver Island.

 

I agree. I don't see this being an Oregon landfall at all. The real question (to me) is whether this crashes into Vancouver Island or bombs out offshore.