October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Bryant]

I point out cold. There has been 4 days below normal this month. Its been mostly warm.

 

I did not draw that map. Phil linked me to it last spring and told me to use. He said its the best one. So I use it.

Well, here you go, updates 4 times a day

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

[snow_wizard]

I didn't say you were making anything up. The SSTs can/will fluctuate wildly on short timescales, though, sometimes simply due to fluid inertial processes unrelated to anything ongoing atmospherically. Remember that big spike in ENSO SSTAs back in September? Same thing, just on a much larger scale. Didn't really mean anything, in hindsight, but was still unusual enough to catch my attention.

 

Right now, the lower frequency atmospheric convective/circulatory biases associated with La Niña are very weak and weakening. This is what matters IMO. The evidence of this is obvious in the various reflective indices we know and love, whether it be the prolonged -SOI bias, the +AAM integral since late September, or the uninterrupted +PNA regime that's been dominating for several weeks now.

 

Given the weak nature of the background state, it's something that should be monitored IMO. It's not guaranteed to survive continued destructive interference like this.

 

I think the chances are high the atmosphere will go balls to the wall Ninaish sometime before the end of the year.  We are obviously in a very complex situation this year.

[snow_wizard]

Wettest October ever and we've had exactly one day of indoor recess.

 

My nieces probably would have had 20 in LA.

 

That is surprising.  We've had some real soakers here many times during the day.

[Phil]

I think the chances are high the atmosphere will goes ball to the wall Ninaish sometime before the end of the year. We are obviously in a very complex situation this year.

I'm sure there'll be niña-esque periods. Just might be less prolonged initially.

[snow_wizard]

Yet another month where the 850mb temps have been below normal while the observed temps are above.  Obviously the cloudy nights are the only reason the month hasn't been chilly.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

I wonder if the globally warm SSTAs are playing a role in the extreme nature of the rain this month along the West Coast...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/global.png

[BLI snowman]

1983 and 2001 keep showing up as the top analogs to this upcoming pattern.   

 

Both had wet Novembers.

 

It's going to rain next month. An awful lot.

[TT-SEA]

Both had wet Novembers.

 

It's going to rain next month. An awful lot.

 

 

Its November.    Of course it will.     

 

Probably less than October though.  

[BLI snowman]

Yet another month where the 850mb temps have been below normal while the observed temps are above.  Obviously the cloudy nights are the only reason the month hasn't been chilly.

 

We have indeed had reasonably cool highs. The monthly maximum IMBY is 68, which puts this month in pretty rarefied air for low October maximums.

 

Getting a regional negative departure on minimum temps takes a miracle these days.

[Phil]

FWIW (which isn't much) the new ECMWF weeklies aren't pretty looking. Looks like a big +PNA pattern right through the end, into week six. Would be mid-December at that point.

[Front Ranger]

I think the PDO # will come in about the same as September as there seems to be some kind of lag in the readings. No doubt it's on the rise at the moment though, just like Flatiron said it would.

 

That guy is full of , just like the PDO and Joe Bastardi.

[BLI snowman]

Its November.    Of course it will.     

 

Probably less than October though.  

 

Portland's wettest ever October was in 1882, with 11.63".

 

It was followed by a November with 7.11" of rain, a December with 20.14" of rain, and a January with 13.71" of rain.

 

History will repeat and your town's moss problem is going to be absolutely historic.

[ShawniganLake]

Gfs has a November's worth of rain falling in the first 10 days of the month. That will be refreshing. Hopefully we see some cold when we get the payoff from this.

[TT-SEA]

Portland's wettest ever October was in 1882, with 11.63".

 

It was followed by a November with 7.11" of rain, a December with 20.14" of rain, and a January with 13.71" of rain.

 

History will repeat and your town's moss problem is going to be absolutely historic.

OK Justin.

[Front Ranger]

We have indeed had reasonably cool highs. The monthly maximum IMBY is 68, which puts this month in pretty rarefied air for low October maximums.

 

Getting a regional negative departure on minimum temps takes a miracle these days.

 

Last month to solidly pull it off was Nov 2015.

[Timmy Supercell]

KLMT got a decent 0.36" of rain out of today.

 

Currently matching 5th wettest October, 2004 at 2.07". Behind 2014 a little, which is 2.21" at 4th wettest.

[Phil]

Weeks 3-6 and a little beyond. Looks Niño-ish.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A9627CA7-C4E4-496D-AD55-A36B494AEF5C_zpsacvbo78g.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5D19DF59-FBDF-4E5A-A7E6-2C7FBE858699_zpstdnjsysw.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6DA31D6D-9BDF-4D86-B5E2-C6F02711B56B_zps5jjgj3o9.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A59807C7-85A9-4CBB-ABE2-BA5BBE471C30_zpsbirwhxf3.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/0BAD37C6-8991-4BBD-BB39-3564ECC6A7A6_zpsfrvshz8h.png

[snow_wizard]

Gfs has a November's worth of rain falling in the first 10 days of the month. That will be refreshing. Hopefully we see some cold when we get the payoff from this.

 

As I stated last night years with an extremely wet Oct / Nov combo are nearly certain to deliver Arctic air during the winter.  There was only one real exception to that in the 20th century and it was a strong Nina year of all things....1975-76.

[Front Ranger]

Then report the upward periods as sky rocketing if you want to call the down periods as dropping like a rock.   Because all you report is that its dropping like a rock so it should be the strongest Nina ever recorded by this point.   

 

Again... this is the big picture change over the last 7 days.   Not seeing this massive cooling.    

 

 

 

Unnecessary post. Again: why do you care so much about how Jim describes things? It's childish, just like Donald Trump.

 

[snow_wizard]

Weeks 3-6 and a little beyond. Looks Niño-ish.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nice to get it out of the way now.

[BLI snowman]

OK Justin.

 

Best to get an early start on that annual memo to the city council about proper winter roof maintenance.

[snow_wizard]

Unnecessary post. Again: why do you care so much about how Jim describes things? It's childish, just like Donald Trump.

 

 

Besides that the graph I posted clearly shows Nino 3.4 is plunging right now.

[snow_wizard]

BTW...I'll have to see it to believe in regard to the huge positive height anoms over AK going away in Nov.

[TT-SEA]

Unnecessary post. Again: why do you care so much about how Jim describes things? It's childish, just like Donald Trump.

 

Trump would have included a ruthless tirade of personal attacks.

 

And ENSO always seems to be crashing in dramatic fashion. But still barely a Nina. Go figure.

[Front Ranger]

Trump would have included a ruthless tirade of personal attacks.

 

And ENSO always seems to be crashing in dramatic fashion. But still barely a Nina. Go figure.

 

Hyperbole happens. Been happening around here a long time. Big deal.

[Gradient Keeper]

Latest ECMWF weeklies.... No, you don't want to see them. Trust me.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is very wet on Halloween day and night. Cancel those frost warnings!

[Deweydog]

That guy is full of s**t, just like the PDO and Joe Bastardi.

I thought it was John Denver who was full of ?

[Gradient Keeper]

Besides that the graph I posted clearly shows Nino 3.4 is plunging right now.

Yeah, Daily Sea Surface Temperatures shows the Equatorial Pacific is definitely looking a bit chilly and more Niña -ish to me. It also looks like the Arctic Regions are starting to cool finally. Also note how most of Alaska, all of Yukon, northern British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories are all Snow covered. They should be this time of year. Siberia and Greenland are of course locked in a frozen Snowy ice box. 'Tis the Season!

 

[Jesse]

The persistent mildness is starting to remind me a bit of 2014-15. I still remember Phil working to convince us we were in for a blockbuster January that winter.

[Gradient Keeper]

I thought it was John Denver who was full of s**t?

[BLI snowman]

I thought it was John Denver who was full of s**t?

 

Big gulps, huh? Alright.

[Front Ranger]

I thought it was John Denver who was full of s**t?

 

I expected the Nina to be a little more Nina-er than this. 

[Phil]

The persistent mildness is starting to remind me a bit of 2014-15. I still remember Phil working to convince us we were in for a blockbuster January that winter.

That was 2013/14, and it almost happened!!

 

Get your facts straight.

[Gradient Keeper]

Big gulps, huh? Alright.

Killer boots man!

[Front Ranger]

The persistent mildness is starting to remind me a bit of 2014-15. I still remember Phil working to convince us we were in for a blockbuster January that winter.

 

Phil is actually John Denver.

[BLI snowman]

The persistent mildness is starting to remind me a bit of 2014-15. I still remember Phil working to convince us we were in for a blockbuster January that winter.

 

That winter would have been awesome for us if the blocking had just set up about 3000 miles west. 

[Deweydog]

That was 2013/14, and it almost happened!!

 

Get your facts straight.

Nah, you were all about a "December 2008 only snowier" early January 2015.

 

I don't think anyone in the lowlands had more than 18 inches that month.

 

Fail.

[Phil]

Nah, you were all about a "December 2008 only snowier" early January 2015.

 

I don't think anyone in the lowlands had more than 18 inches that month.

 

Fail.

Oh, yeah I remember that one. Thing is, I'd make the same forecast all over again if the same circumstances were to arise again.

 

Was a total fluke that it didn't work out. Multiple processes conspired to shove that anticyclonic breaker a good 750+ miles east of where it should have ended up. There are no analogs for January 2015.

[Phil]

At least if January fails this year, Jim, Tim, and Justin are on the hook for it this time, instead of me.