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November 2022 Observations and Discussion


Clinton

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Dry and unseasonably warm weather should continue through Monday. Then we slip back toward normal by Election Day.
The record high for today is 80 degrees from 1974. Our record low was 21 degrees from 1952. The daily rainfall record is 1.81" set in 1947.
image.png.7014996ff700333f2a878678ed319141.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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The MJO is on the move through the cold phases of 7 and 8, then it will head into the null phase.  What happens after that will be huge as we go into Thanksgiving weekend.

The JMA is indicating a possible move into phase 5 while the GFS and Euro show a move into the Winter killer phase 6.

JMAN.png

GEFS.png

ECMF.png

Good news with the Euro Ext is it quickly moves back into phase 7 before the end of the month.

EMON.png

GFS Ext is even better.  It's good to see the MJO playing in the cold phases

GMON.png

combined_image.png

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11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Uhh.... Ok, who do I have to pay to have this come true? Holy crap!

1668427200-9opLDbT678A.png

I thought about firing up a thread on this one but the models and ensembles are all over the place.  Someone between Canada and Mexico will get hit lol. Euro Control agrees with the operational though. Looks like this one could head your way.

image.thumb.png.379a0ff262a3f9c0dcaab24227ebe1ec.png

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Another mild day today, but big changes coming next weekend. Colder air will be moving in. Nothing too extreme, but definitely BN tempwise.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Latest NBM, which is normally on the conservative side of projections, is looking fairly decent for the Veteran's Day storm.

nbm-conus-central-total_snow_10to1-8297600.png

If this verifies, I'm pretty sure I kicked a 70 yard field goal with my comment about 2-4 day modeling earlier this week.

Getting pretty real now, yeah. 

I LOVE it. 

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ORD set a new Record Low min temp yesterday of 61F.  High Wind warnings issued for NE IL and parts of C IL with gusts that may approach 65mph!  This is quite the system as the lower lakes region is under the "belly of the beast"...well, a "mini" beast that'll deepen into the upper 980's mb.

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First off today looks to have a chance of some very high wind gusts so be careful of that. The high for today has already been reached and it was 67 thus making today the 5 warmest November 5th at Grand Rapids. The official H/L at Grand Rapids for yesterday was 68/57. The low of 57 set a new record for the warmest minimum for the date and the high of 68 is the 8th warmest for the date. There was 0.11” of rain fall before midnight no sunshine was recorded. Here in MBY 0.17” of rain was recorded. At the current time it is 61 here in MBY. For today the average H/L is 52/36 the record high of 75 was recorded in 1978 and the low was 6 in 1951. The record snow fall amount was 2.6” in 1982. Last year the H/L was 52/33.

 

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It appears the Strat technique will come into fruition and the Nation will see the coldest temps of the season bleed into most of the Lower 48 a bit quicker than my original call.  Needless to say, it's going to get cold and the winter storm I have had on my calendar mid-month starting to show up for our members across the Plains.

image.gif

 

0z EPS...this animation will showcase one of the biggest signals that the "Alaskan Ridge" will be a common Theme for this year's LRC.  The beauty of the PAC Jet cutting underneath the expansive W NAMER ridge will also be a well known player.  As far as the LRC setting up, we may be entering a period of a "Split Flow" pattern post Veteran's Day and activating the STJ once again.  Furthermore, I'm not quite sure if this is a harmonic part of the LRC or if is repeating itself, but these maps are very similar to how OCT opened up.  It's a bit to early for me to know for sure but I'm seeing some interesting repetitive characteristics to these maps.  All the global models are showing signs the PNA is flipping + by mid month and tanking the EPO.  Cross Polar Flow???  Yup.  The return of the "Hudson Bay Vortex".

image.gif

 

 

I'll end this post with this 10mb STRAT animation...no doubt, we will see a continuation of the NW NAMER Ridge through Thanksgiving week.  Buckle Up!  Bundle Up!

temp10anim.gif

 

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29 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not the best of trends on the 06z GFS and 00z Euro. Both phased the lows together too quickly, leaving hardly any snow south of North Dakota. Also looks like the 00z EPS and 06z GEFS are starting to agree on the phased approach, with fewer members maintaining the southern low.

Still plenty of time for things to change again but at the moment it's not looking super promising.

It's early in the season. Models will jump on ideal conclusions that rarely play out. You've been at this a while. You should know that models have improved in the shorter term. Keeps NWS offices from complete whiff busts like in years past (tho there was that event in 2018 or 2019 when GRR issued a WSWarning for nada). A decade back the models would give hints of a storm coming together in the 240h range and slowly come into focus during the ensuing 5 days (see GHD-2 for example). Now, they want to paint the entire picture from that 240h range. It's very deceiving and almost "click bait" behavior for those of us hoping to snag a nice storm. The flashing of big storms by the models has become loathsome in recent years taking a lot of the fun out of model following. Probably why I do so much less of it then I used to. Ofc, it also doesn't help that most storms over the last two winters have found a way to shaft mby.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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56 minutes ago, Tom said:

It appears the Strat technique will come into fruition and the Nation will see the coldest temps of the season bleed into most of the Lower 48 a bit quicker than my original call.  Needless to say, it's going to get cold and the winter storm I have had on my calendar mid-month starting to show up for our members across the Plains.

image.gif

 

0z EPS...this animation will showcase one of the biggest signals that the "Alaskan Ridge" will be a common Theme for this year's LRC.  The beauty of the PAC Jet cutting underneath the expansive W NAMER ridge will also be a well known player.  As far as the LRC setting up, we may be entering a period of a "Split Flow" pattern post Veteran's Day and activating the STJ once again.  Furthermore, I'm not quite sure if this is a harmonic part of the LRC or if is repeating itself, but these maps are very similar to how OCT opened up.  It's a bit to early for me to know for sure but I'm seeing some interesting repetitive characteristics to these maps.  All the global models are showing signs the PNA is flipping + by mid month and tanking the EPO.  Cross Polar Flow???  Yup.  The return of the "Hudson Bay Vortex".

image.gif

 

 

I'll end this post with this 10mb STRAT animation...no doubt, we will see a continuation of the NW NAMER Ridge through Thanksgiving week.  Buckle Up!  Bundle Up!

temp10anim.gif

 

I'll be looking for that big Minnesota low showing up to mark the beginning of cycle 2.  Gary always says that the last week of Oct and the first week of Nov are the most important part of the LRC setup.  I'm not sure why that is, could be harmonics maybe one of the KC guys can help.  

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Dry and very mild weekend on tap across Chester County and the Philadelphia area - highs should reach the 70's both days. Cold front crosses the region later Monday with temps dropping back to normal levels with high temps in the mid-50's.
The record high for today is 78 degrees set in 1975. The record low is 21 degrees from 1949. The daily rain record is 1.56" set way back in 1896.
image.png.dfd2052d441974bf53cb23dd0af64d6a.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Today's high here in the Philly burbs of Chester County was 75.1. This was the warmest day since September 21st. We only saw one day over 70 degrees during the entire month of October. The record high minimum record for overnight tonight is 62.5 set back in 2015. We may be close to that warm record tonight! Go Phillies!!

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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8 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Oh yeah. Models giveth just as easily as models taketh away. 

Not sure how often you visit the PNW side of the forum but the model analysis I'm doing here pales in comparison to the model riding I used to do in that thread. We live and die by what the model runs show every 4 hours. It's entirely unhealthy and has lead to multiple member mental breakdowns when the rug inevitably gets pulled and the winter storm we've been tracking since hour 360 turns into cold rain event 48 hours out. 

I've actually found that since moving to this side of the forum and the complete lack of that style of model riding over here that I've developed a much healthier relationship with the forecasting models. I think a part of it stems from not being completely depressed if a winter storm doesn't work out because I know chances are high there will be another. The same can't be said for the PNW. One lost winter storm might mean you don't see any snow that season. Makes tracking things much more enjoyable.

Glad to hear you're at least trying to preserve your sanity wrt the LR model mayhem. I am also. Where it gets really nasty is on occasion (two come to mind) the Euro has had 3-4 consecutive runs blasting my region with 2-3 ft of snow, only to pull the rug in the end. And I'm talking within the 120h rule where the models should have a fairly good clue. It happened most recently in Dec '20. 

Your new locale can be feast or famine (its The Plains, right?). But I've seen that area score some good storms and winters in the last 2 decades. Unlike here, cold source is never a concern in season, mostly lack of getting moisture to reach you. It's the absolute opposite for my new area. Having stout cold with staying power is the #1 challenge here in Wayne Cnty metro. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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17 minutes ago, westMJim said:

While it did get windy here it was not anything really significant. Total rain fall since 7 AM here in my yard was 0.16" The high here was 67 and at the current time it is now down to 53.

I get genuinely interesting wx here at my new place so seldom, I just consider it a big deal now when I see anything of interest. Nice to see lots of leaves blowing around. Got windows cracked and a strong gust just made that howling sound - pretty cool. The house I grew up in was made of unique bricks that were broke, not molded so they had a lot of jagged edges. You'd hear a lot of screaming howls and whistles in a good windstorm and I remember many many back in the golden era of GL's wx. With my windows open, the brief squall line was very loud too about an hour ago.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This is about what was forecasted here:

Screenshot 2022-11-05.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Big changes next weekend as a potent CF ushers in possibly the coldest weather of the season thus far. Highs might not get outta the 30s, along w/ snowshwers in the air as well.

NOAA:

Ensemble and deterministic guidance has remained consistent in
bringing a long wave trough across the central and eastern US on
Friday and into the weekend. This system would send a cold front
through the region around Friday and bring a much colder weather for
next weekend with high temperatures possibly topping out around 40
degrees.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This current CF brought some windy conditions today, but nothing too extreme. A few showers as well. Anyways, a brief cooldown early next week followed by a big warm - up (70s once again) by mid week b4 things really turn colder by weeks end and and especially by the weekend. From the 70s, we will end up going into the teens and 20s w/ snowshowers. What a sharp contrast.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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15 minutes ago, Niko said:

This current CF brought some windy conditions today, but nothing too extreme. A few showers as well. Anyways, a brief cooldown early next week followed by a big warm - up (70s once again) by mid week b4 things really turn colder by weeks end and and especially by the weekend. From the 70s, we will end up going into the teens and 20s w/ snowshowers. What a sharp contrast.

Gonna feel brutal. Wish it would've just kept trending BN, lol

Today was a fun little hint at what's to come.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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17 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Gonna feel brutal. Wish it would've just kept trending BN, lol

Today was a fun little hint at what's to come.

I'm liking the fact that it has been warm lately. I'd say lets have this warm air around till mid November and then, it will be an ideal time to start bringing in some cold air in just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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8 minutes ago, Niko said:

I'm liking the fact that it has been warm lately. I'd say lets have this warm air around till mid November and then, it will be an ideal time to start bringing in some cold air in just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday.

 

I'm getting old, lol and feeling the chill more than I used to. It's a real phenomenon. I never liked being cold, just tolerated it better. As a kid I'd ride my bike around all winter. I remember being half frozen in the brutal winter of '76-77. Numb and blue extremities was normal back then. I couldn't imagine doing that now. 1/6/14 was the last time I was that frozen. Clearing my driveway in -16F/-41F WC that evening after work. We had that sub-zero day in 2019 but I didn't have to be outside except in/out of the car, etc. My car throttle actually froze-up that day, so my wife and daughter came and got me after work and I got into a nice toasty car. Maybe I'll get some electric socks or something? Up North we had some brutal winters too. I remember Jan of '94 the thermometer outside the south facing window in my kitchen would be -25F every evening. And we were only 3 miles from the big water. It was much much colder inland where I went to work everyday after clearing the nightly round of LES. But I was in my 20's and into snowmobiling and all that so I dealt with it.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

I'm getting old, lol and feeling the chill more than I used to. It's a real phenomenon. I never liked being cold, just tolerated it better. As a kid I'd ride my bike around all winter. I remember being half frozen in the brutal winter of '76-77. Numb and blue extremities was normal back then. I couldn't imagine doing that now. 1/6/14 was the last time I was that frozen. Clearing my driveway in -16F/-41F WC that evening after work. We had that sub-zero day in 2019 but I didn't have to be outside except in/out of the car, etc. My car throttle actually froze-up that day, so my wife and daughter came and got me after work and I got into a nice toasty car. Maybe I'll get some electric socks or something? Up North we had some brutal winters too. I remember Jan of '94 the thermometer outside the south facing window in my kitchen would be -25F every evening. And we were only 3 miles from the big water. It was much much colder inland where I went to work everyday after clearing the nightly round of LES. But I was in my 20's and into snowmobiling and all that so I dealt with it.  

Age is only a number bud. 😉

I'm glad you brought up January 94 because I remember that winter like yesterday. A very cold winter that year in NYC w daytime highs in the single digits and lows below zero. For NYC standards, that is brutal. I had gone to a party one evening and I remember walking to my car (literally 2 blocks away) and had to get inside a building to warm up. My left eye had a blackish mark and yup, you guessed it ( frostbite). WCF in the -20s. I was layered up, but not fully. It was such a harsh winter w snow after snow. I remember we had snows in April and the the funny thing is that previous snows that had fallen back in November were still on the ground. So, as you can see, no melting occurred at all during that winter.  Ahh, the good ol' winters.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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As Daylight Savings ended this morning, we welcome "Model Watching" an hour earlier!  Over here in AZ, the time stays the same and does not change, however, I do get to see the models come in an hour earlier.  

 

Edit: In other news, go out an play the Powerball as the Monday drawing is now $1.9 billion!  $929M cash value.

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18 minutes ago, Tom said:

Mid-Month Winter Storm over the Plains starting to look interesting for our central members...

1.gif

 

"Barney Alert"...5-day Euro Control Temp Anomaly...Yikes!  @Grizzcoat, you cut down cords of wood yet?  

 

2.gif

 

 

I think we have 2 snow storms to track as the tanking EPO and phase 7 MJO combine to give us some stormy weather.  The first storm looks to bring precipitation to @CentralNebWeatherand @hawkstwelve.  The GFS has been trending slower, stronger and further SE.  The 6z GFS has a blizzard very close to a few of our guys.

gfs-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1667714400-1668027600-1668243600-40.gif

1668243600-27RJKo1m6oo.png

1668340800-cS4R6QKduWg.png

The second has been showing up on the GFS and Euro Control for days 9 and 10 for a few runs in a row.  As Tom mentioned it looks very interesting for us in the Central Plains.  First accumulating snow for KC?

6z GFS 

1668621600-31ol6RwmaV4.png

0z Euro Control

1668621600-bkZesFND0mw.png

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Welcome to winter time, whoops I mean standard time. We will be on this time for only the next 4 months. Not sure how much longer we will be changing the time but as we are on this time only for 4 months it should not be called standard time.

Yesterday had some periods of strong winds and a few showers. The official H/L for Grand Rapids was 66/48 here in MBY my high was 65. There was officially 0.06” of rain fall (I had 0.16”) and there was no sunshine. There was a new record high set in Muskegon of 71 yesterday and that high of 66 was the 6th warmest at GR.  The overnight low here in MBY was 41 when there was some clearing. At the current time it is cloudy and 44 here. For today the average H/L is 51/36 the record high of 77 was reported in 1975 and the record low of 9 was reported in 1951. The record snow fall amount of 4.0” was recorded in 1988.

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21 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I think we have 2 snow storms to track as the tanking EPO and phase 7 MJO combine to give us some stormy weather.  The first storm looks to bring precipitation to @CentralNebWeatherand @hawkstwelve.  The GFS has been trending slower, stronger and further SE.  The 6z GFS has a blizzard very close to a few of our guys.

gfs-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1667714400-1668027600-1668243600-40.gif

1668243600-27RJKo1m6oo.png

1668340800-cS4R6QKduWg.png

The second has been showing up on the GFS and Euro Control for days 9 and 10 for a few runs in a row.  As Tom mentioned it looks very interesting for us in the Central Plains.  First accumulating snow for KC?

6z GFS 

1668621600-31ol6RwmaV4.png

0z Euro Control

1668621600-bkZesFND0mw.png

I think its time to get into that Winter Storm tracking mode...I've been sorta feeling the seasons out here in AZ as we have seen some real deal Autumn weather for the SW desert standards.  Autumn came here fast a little over a week ago and it appears we will continue this trend for at least the next 10 days.  I gotta be honest, I don't know how I'm going to acclimate to those temps when I get back home.  It feels cold for me with temps in the mid 40's around sunrise!  

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But in all seriousness there is some growing support for at least a snow tease during that 9-13 day period. It'll be something to watch. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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We set a new record maximum low temperature this AM as we only dropped to 63.2 here in Chester County PA. This breaks the old mark of 62.5 set back in 2015. We will break another record overnight tonight as we should again stay above 60 degrees. The current record for November 7th is the 57 degrees set way back in 1912.
We should see temps fall back to near normal during the middle of the upcoming week before a slight rebound to above temps before much colder and below normal weather arrives by next Sunday. I suspect the 2nd half of November will average well below normal temps to balance off much of the early month warmth.
image.png.633c7af310a2c13d169c58f098a68da7.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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WOW!! 

61*   33% humidity, Sunny

I don’t think it can get any prettier in Texas.  If it can, I want to be there!! 🤠

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

I think its time to get into that Winter Storm tracking mode...I've been sorta feeling the seasons out here in AZ as we have seen some real deal Autumn weather for the SW desert standards.  Autumn came here fast a little over a week ago and it appears we will continue this trend for at least the next 10 days.  I gotta be honest, I don't know how I'm going to acclimate to those temps when I get back home.  It feels cold for me with temps in the mid 40's around sunrise!  

That’s the problem with the SW!!   
We get accustomed to beautiful pleasant springs and falls and Boom! Winter slams into you and you’re left dazed, confused and freezing your tookus off!!

I have family in Tucson and they laugh at how dumb we are to live in hot humid Texas. But we have pluses they don’t.  I like visiting Az though. Nice people. Loads of beauty.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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