November 2022 Observations and Discussion

[hawkstwelve]

Euro weeklies control run the other night. Phew laddy.

Can't be this time of year without some pepto maps being shared!

[hawkstwelve]

Speaking of the weeklies, the latest one showed a pattern change around the start of December. Go from a -PNA/+EPO/+NAO to +PNA/-EPO/-NAO pattern.

Those hoping to save the good stuff for December might be in luck.

[NWbyNW]

Looks gusty out St. Louis way.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Had a nice little cell move through with frequent lightning/thunder, heavy rain, and some graupel. Down to 36 after a midday high of 64.

[OKwx2k4]

Wind is here and appears the cold is creeping into the panhandle of OK.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro has a C.PLains crusher in the day 8ish range....

[Clinton]

5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Euro has a C.PLains crusher in the day 8ish range....

The control matches the operational but the ensembles are mostly further north and don't develop a southern low.  It will be fun to watch this weekend because the last few storms have developed like this run of the Euro is showing and the Canadian is similar to the Euro.  I-35 corridor and points east have been a hotspot for precip lately.

 

[Tom]

It's official, I had to turn on the Furnace out here for the 1st time this season.  Winter has arrived in the state of Arizona as the mountain tops were blanketed with about 3-6" of Snow.  Temps held mostly in the 50's all day yesterday and my Dad took a video of what looked like graupel or hail hitting the window.  This happened right after the CF swept through and a band of post-frontal showers developed.  It's been an eventful past couple days around here.

Not gonna lie, its a bit chilly for my blood as temps have dropped to 41F and there are some upper 30's showing up nearby.  Looking forward to the sunshine today and warmer temps this weekend!

 

[westMJim]

Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 71/48 that 71 the high was also 71 at Lansing. Both locations had the 9^th warmest November 9^th on record. The high of 71 at Holland was the 7^th warmest on record. Now for Muskegon their high of 70 tied the record with 2015 and 1903. There was no rain fall at Grand Rapids yesterday and 94% of possible sunshine. The official overnight low and the low for the day so far at Grand Rapids is 57 if it stays above 55  until midnight that will be a new record warmest minimum for any November 4^th . The average H/L for today is 52/36 the record high of 75 was set in 2015 and the record low of 16 was set in 1951. The record snow fall is 5.8” in 1951. Last year the H/L was 47/33.

 

[Tom]

A new month, A new pattern....Love seeing the bountiful precip across our Nation!  Giddy up....Good Times coming!  California Dreaming...boy, that PAC Jet is going to pound the West.

 

[chescowxman]

Dry and unseasonably warm weather should continue through Monday. Then we slip back toward normal by Election Day.

The record high for today is 80 degrees from 1974. Our record low was 21 degrees from 1952. The daily rainfall record is 1.81" set in 1947.

[Clinton]

The MJO is on the move through the cold phases of 7 and 8, then it will head into the null phase.  What happens after that will be huge as we go into Thanksgiving weekend.

The JMA is indicating a possible move into phase 5 while the GFS and Euro show a move into the Winter killer phase 6.

Good news with the Euro Ext is it quickly moves back into phase 7 before the end of the month.

GFS Ext is even better.  It's good to see the MJO playing in the cold phases

[james1976]

12z GFS has the Vets Day (my bday) snow event for IA and MN.

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, james1976 said:

12z GFS has the Vets Day (my bday) snow event for IA and MN.

Canadian is south and would be crazy nice for everyone, even in SMI with LES events.  

[Clinton]

12z Euro big on Vetrans Day Storm

[hawkstwelve]

Uhh.... Ok, who do I have to pay to have this come true? Holy crap!

[Clinton]

11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Uhh.... Ok, who do I have to pay to have this come true? Holy crap!

I thought about firing up a thread on this one but the models and ensembles are all over the place.  Someone between Canada and Mexico will get hit lol. Euro Control agrees with the operational though. Looks like this one could head your way.

[hawkstwelve]

Just now, Clinton said:

I thought about firing up a thread on this one but the models and ensembles are all over the place.  Someone between Canada and Mexico will get hit lol. 

Yeah definitely would be nice to see some consistency start to form for this storm across the models, but expect we won't see that until later this weekend or early next week at the earliest.

Here's the latest EPS low locations for each different member. You can see in the second image that there are kind of two different camps: one group that takes it much more northerly and one that takes it right up through the heartland. Not to mention there could be a variety of winter weather (snow, freezing rain, etc.) associated with this.

Obviously a lot to still iron out but pretty exciting to have a potentially serious winter storm to track!

[Niko]

Another mild day today, but big changes coming next weekend. Colder air will be moving in. Nothing too extreme, but definitely BN tempwise.

[hawkstwelve]

Latest GFS ensemble is showing a high of 23 on Veteran's Day. Pretty dang solid for a mean. 

[hawkstwelve]

Latest NBM, which is normally on the conservative side of projections, is looking fairly decent for the Veteran's Day storm.

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Latest NBM, which is normally on the conservative side of projections, is looking fairly decent for the Veteran's Day storm.

If this verifies, I'm pretty sure I kicked a 70 yard field goal with my comment about 2-4 day modeling earlier this week.

Getting pretty real now, yeah. 

I LOVE it. 

[hawkstwelve]

After taking a closer look at this storm it's become clear where the differences are with the models. There is a system that moves into the Rockies around Tuesday. There then becomes two pieces of energy that move off the mountains on the eastern side. On the more snowy solutions, like the 12z Euro below, those two do not phase which allows the southern low to maintain enough strength and become a proper storm. On the less snowy runs, like the 18z GFS, those two pieces phase and the southern low gets absorbed by the larger, stronger northern parent. Not nearly enough precip to work with at that point.

Pretty dynamic, fluid situation setting up. Curious to see how it all works out. FWIW, the 00z GFS does seem to have held on to the southern lobe slightly better than previous runs.

[westMJim]

 

 

 

The current temperature here in MBY and officially at GRR is 67. That already will make today the 6^th warmest ever for any November 5^th

[Tom]

ORD set a new Record Low min temp yesterday of 61F.  High Wind warnings issued for NE IL and parts of C IL with gusts that may approach 65mph!  This is quite the system as the lower lakes region is under the "belly of the beast"...well, a "mini" beast that'll deepen into the upper 980's mb.

[westMJim]

First off today looks to have a chance of some very high wind gusts so be careful of that. The high for today has already been reached and it was 67 thus making today the 5 warmest November 5^th at Grand Rapids. The official H/L at Grand Rapids for yesterday was 68/57. The low of 57 set a new record for the warmest minimum for the date and the high of 68 is the 8^th warmest for the date. There was 0.11” of rain fall before midnight no sunshine was recorded. Here in MBY 0.17” of rain was recorded. At the current time it is 61 here in MBY. For today the average H/L is 52/36 the record high of 75 was recorded in 1978 and the low was 6 in 1951. The record snow fall amount was 2.6” in 1982. Last year the H/L was 52/33.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Not the best of trends on the 06z GFS and 00z Euro. Both phased the lows together too quickly, leaving hardly any snow south of North Dakota. Also looks like the 00z EPS and 06z GEFS are starting to agree on the phased approach, with fewer members maintaining the southern low.

Still plenty of time for things to change again but at the moment it's not looking super promising.

[Tom]

It appears the Strat technique will come into fruition and the Nation will see the coldest temps of the season bleed into most of the Lower 48 a bit quicker than my original call.  Needless to say, it's going to get cold and the winter storm I have had on my calendar mid-month starting to show up for our members across the Plains.

 

0z EPS...this animation will showcase one of the biggest signals that the "Alaskan Ridge" will be a common Theme for this year's LRC.  The beauty of the PAC Jet cutting underneath the expansive W NAMER ridge will also be a well known player.  As far as the LRC setting up, we may be entering a period of a "Split Flow" pattern post Veteran's Day and activating the STJ once again.  Furthermore, I'm not quite sure if this is a harmonic part of the LRC or if is repeating itself, but these maps are very similar to how OCT opened up.  It's a bit to early for me to know for sure but I'm seeing some interesting repetitive characteristics to these maps.  All the global models are showing signs the PNA is flipping + by mid month and tanking the EPO.  Cross Polar Flow???  Yup.  The return of the "Hudson Bay Vortex".

 

 

I'll end this post with this 10mb STRAT animation...no doubt, we will see a continuation of the NW NAMER Ridge through Thanksgiving week.  Buckle Up!  Bundle Up!

 

[jaster220]

29 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not the best of trends on the 06z GFS and 00z Euro. Both phased the lows together too quickly, leaving hardly any snow south of North Dakota. Also looks like the 00z EPS and 06z GEFS are starting to agree on the phased approach, with fewer members maintaining the southern low.

Still plenty of time for things to change again but at the moment it's not looking super promising.

It's early in the season. Models will jump on ideal conclusions that rarely play out. You've been at this a while. You should know that models have improved in the shorter term. Keeps NWS offices from complete whiff busts like in years past (tho there was that event in 2018 or 2019 when GRR issued a WSWarning for nada). A decade back the models would give hints of a storm coming together in the 240h range and slowly come into focus during the ensuing 5 days (see GHD-2 for example). Now, they want to paint the entire picture from that 240h range. It's very deceiving and almost "click bait" behavior for those of us hoping to snag a nice storm. The flashing of big storms by the models has become loathsome in recent years taking a lot of the fun out of model following. Probably why I do so much less of it then I used to. Ofc, it also doesn't help that most storms over the last two winters have found a way to shaft mby.

[hawkstwelve]

42 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

It's early in the season. Models will jump on ideal conclusions that rarely play out. You've been at this a while. You should know that models have improved in the shorter term. Keeps NWS offices from complete whiff busts like in years past (tho there was that event in 2018 or 2019 when GRR issued a WSWarning for nada). A decade back the models would give hints of a storm coming together in the 240h range and slowly come into focus during the ensuing 5 days (see GHD-2 for example). Now, they want to paint the entire picture from that 240h range. It's very deceiving and almost "click bait" behavior for those of us hoping to snag a nice storm. The flashing of big storms by the models has become loathsome in recent years taking a lot of the fun out of model following. Probably why I do so much less of it then I used to. Ofc, it also doesn't help that most storms over the last two winters have found a way to shaft mby.

Oh yeah. Models giveth just as easily as models taketh away. 

Not sure how often you visit the PNW side of the forum but the model analysis I'm doing here pales in comparison to the model riding I used to do in that thread. We live and die by what the model runs show every 4 hours. It's entirely unhealthy and has lead to multiple member mental breakdowns when the rug inevitably gets pulled and the winter storm we've been tracking since hour 360 turns into cold rain event 48 hours out. 

I've actually found that since moving to this side of the forum and the complete lack of that style of model riding over here that I've developed a much healthier relationship with the forecasting models. I think a part of it stems from not being completely depressed if a winter storm doesn't work out because I know chances are high there will be another. The same can't be said for the PNW. One lost winter storm might mean you don't see any snow that season. Makes tracking things much more enjoyable.

[Clinton]

56 minutes ago, Tom said:

It appears the Strat technique will come into fruition and the Nation will see the coldest temps of the season bleed into most of the Lower 48 a bit quicker than my original call.  Needless to say, it's going to get cold and the winter storm I have had on my calendar mid-month starting to show up for our members across the Plains.

 

0z EPS...this animation will showcase one of the biggest signals that the "Alaskan Ridge" will be a common Theme for this year's LRC.  The beauty of the PAC Jet cutting underneath the expansive W NAMER ridge will also be a well known player.  As far as the LRC setting up, we may be entering a period of a "Split Flow" pattern post Veteran's Day and activating the STJ once again.  Furthermore, I'm not quite sure if this is a harmonic part of the LRC or if is repeating itself, but these maps are very similar to how OCT opened up.  It's a bit to early for me to know for sure but I'm seeing some interesting repetitive characteristics to these maps.  All the global models are showing signs the PNA is flipping + by mid month and tanking the EPO.  Cross Polar Flow???  Yup.  The return of the "Hudson Bay Vortex".

 

 

I'll end this post with this 10mb STRAT animation...no doubt, we will see a continuation of the NW NAMER Ridge through Thanksgiving week.  Buckle Up!  Bundle Up!

 

I'll be looking for that big Minnesota low showing up to mark the beginning of cycle 2.  Gary always says that the last week of Oct and the first week of Nov are the most important part of the LRC setup.  I'm not sure why that is, could be harmonics maybe one of the KC guys can help.  

[chescowxman]

Dry and very mild weekend on tap across Chester County and the Philadelphia area - highs should reach the 70's both days. Cold front crosses the region later Monday with temps dropping back to normal levels with high temps in the mid-50's.

The record high for today is 78 degrees set in 1975. The record low is 21 degrees from 1949. The daily rain record is 1.56" set way back in 1896.

[chescowxman]

Today's high here in the Philly burbs of Chester County was 75.1. This was the warmest day since September 21st. We only saw one day over 70 degrees during the entire month of October. The record high minimum record for overnight tonight is 62.5 set back in 2015. We may be close to that warm record tonight! Go Phillies!!

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Oh yeah. Models giveth just as easily as models taketh away. 

Not sure how often you visit the PNW side of the forum but the model analysis I'm doing here pales in comparison to the model riding I used to do in that thread. We live and die by what the model runs show every 4 hours. It's entirely unhealthy and has lead to multiple member mental breakdowns when the rug inevitably gets pulled and the winter storm we've been tracking since hour 360 turns into cold rain event 48 hours out. 

I've actually found that since moving to this side of the forum and the complete lack of that style of model riding over here that I've developed a much healthier relationship with the forecasting models. I think a part of it stems from not being completely depressed if a winter storm doesn't work out because I know chances are high there will be another. The same can't be said for the PNW. One lost winter storm might mean you don't see any snow that season. Makes tracking things much more enjoyable.

Glad to hear you're at least trying to preserve your sanity wrt the LR model mayhem. I am also. Where it gets really nasty is on occasion (two come to mind) the Euro has had 3-4 consecutive runs blasting my region with 2-3 ft of snow, only to pull the rug in the end. And I'm talking within the 120h rule where the models should have a fairly good clue. It happened most recently in Dec '20. 

Your new locale can be feast or famine (its The Plains, right?). But I've seen that area score some good storms and winters in the last 2 decades. Unlike here, cold source is never a concern in season, mostly lack of getting moisture to reach you. It's the absolute opposite for my new area. Having stout cold with staying power is the #1 challenge here in Wayne Cnty metro. 

[westMJim]

While it did get windy here it was not anything really significant. Total rain fall since 7 AM here in my yard was 0.16" The high here was 67 and at the current time it is now down to 53.

[jaster220]

17 minutes ago, westMJim said:

While it did get windy here it was not anything really significant. Total rain fall since 7 AM here in my yard was 0.16" The high here was 67 and at the current time it is now down to 53.

I get genuinely interesting wx here at my new place so seldom, I just consider it a big deal now when I see anything of interest. Nice to see lots of leaves blowing around. Got windows cracked and a strong gust just made that howling sound - pretty cool. The house I grew up in was made of unique bricks that were broke, not molded so they had a lot of jagged edges. You'd hear a lot of screaming howls and whistles in a good windstorm and I remember many many back in the golden era of GL's wx. With my windows open, the brief squall line was very loud too about an hour ago.  

[jaster220]

This is about what was forecasted here:

[Niko]

Big changes next weekend as a potent CF ushers in possibly the coldest weather of the season thus far. Highs might not get outta the 30s, along w/ snowshwers in the air as well.

NOAA:

Ensemble and deterministic guidance has remained consistent in
bringing a long wave trough across the central and eastern US on
Friday and into the weekend. This system would send a cold front
through the region around Friday and bring a much colder weather for
next weekend with high temperatures possibly topping out around 40
degrees.

[Niko]

This current CF brought some windy conditions today, but nothing too extreme. A few showers as well. Anyways, a brief cooldown early next week followed by a big warm - up (70s once again) by mid week b4 things really turn colder by weeks end and and especially by the weekend. From the 70s, we will end up going into the teens and 20s w/ snowshowers. What a sharp contrast.

[jaster220]

15 minutes ago, Niko said:

This current CF brought some windy conditions today, but nothing too extreme. A few showers as well. Anyways, a brief cooldown early next week followed by a big warm - up (70s once again) by mid week b4 things really turn colder by weeks end and and especially by the weekend. From the 70s, we will end up going into the teens and 20s w/ snowshowers. What a sharp contrast.

Gonna feel brutal. Wish it would've just kept trending BN, lol

Today was a fun little hint at what's to come.

[Niko]

17 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Gonna feel brutal. Wish it would've just kept trending BN, lol

Today was a fun little hint at what's to come.

I'm liking the fact that it has been warm lately. I'd say lets have this warm air around till mid November and then, it will be an ideal time to start bringing in some cold air in just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday.

 

[jaster220]

8 minutes ago, Niko said:

I'm liking the fact that it has been warm lately. I'd say lets have this warm air around till mid November and then, it will be an ideal time to start bringing in some cold air in just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday.

 

I'm getting old, lol and feeling the chill more than I used to. It's a real phenomenon. I never liked being cold, just tolerated it better. As a kid I'd ride my bike around all winter. I remember being half frozen in the brutal winter of '76-77. Numb and blue extremities was normal back then. I couldn't imagine doing that now. 1/6/14 was the last time I was that frozen. Clearing my driveway in -16F/-41F WC that evening after work. We had that sub-zero day in 2019 but I didn't have to be outside except in/out of the car, etc. My car throttle actually froze-up that day, so my wife and daughter came and got me after work and I got into a nice toasty car. Maybe I'll get some electric socks or something? Up North we had some brutal winters too. I remember Jan of '94 the thermometer outside the south facing window in my kitchen would be -25F every evening. And we were only 3 miles from the big water. It was much much colder inland where I went to work everyday after clearing the nightly round of LES. But I was in my 20's and into snowmobiling and all that so I dealt with it.  

[hawkstwelve]

Latest GEFS is starting to look more like the Canadian ensembles, now showing more than a few days with highs in the 20s.

Regardless of operational pattern waffling or how this upcoming storm shakes out, all ensembles remain consistent in showing cold temps hanging on for at least a week. FSD is running +8 so far through November so those well-BN temps should put a nice dent in that.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

I'm getting old, lol and feeling the chill more than I used to. It's a real phenomenon. I never liked being cold, just tolerated it better. As a kid I'd ride my bike around all winter. I remember being half frozen in the brutal winter of '76-77. Numb and blue extremities was normal back then. I couldn't imagine doing that now. 1/6/14 was the last time I was that frozen. Clearing my driveway in -16F/-41F WC that evening after work. We had that sub-zero day in 2019 but I didn't have to be outside except in/out of the car, etc. My car throttle actually froze-up that day, so my wife and daughter came and got me after work and I got into a nice toasty car. Maybe I'll get some electric socks or something? Up North we had some brutal winters too. I remember Jan of '94 the thermometer outside the south facing window in my kitchen would be -25F every evening. And we were only 3 miles from the big water. It was much much colder inland where I went to work everyday after clearing the nightly round of LES. But I was in my 20's and into snowmobiling and all that so I dealt with it.  

Age is only a number bud.

I'm glad you brought up January 94 because I remember that winter like yesterday. A very cold winter that year in NYC w daytime highs in the single digits and lows below zero. For NYC standards, that is brutal. I had gone to a party one evening and I remember walking to my car (literally 2 blocks away) and had to get inside a building to warm up. My left eye had a blackish mark and yup, you guessed it ( frostbite). WCF in the -20s. I was layered up, but not fully. It was such a harsh winter w snow after snow. I remember we had snows in April and the the funny thing is that previous snows that had fallen back in November were still on the ground. So, as you can see, no melting occurred at all during that winter.  Ahh, the good ol' winters.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Not a bad 10-day surface temp anamoly map for the middle of November. 00z GFS is showing a few rounds of cold air dropping down into the Plains and points eastward.

I think Tom mentioned home-brewed cold in one of the threads? Well that 850mb temp gif looks something just like that.

[hawkstwelve]

Canadian ensembles continue to show a fairly impressive 11 days straight with highs stuck in the 20s, which would be roughly 20 degrees below average. It has been pretty consistent with this more extreme solution, FWIW. 

Just a wee bit chilly...

[Tom]

As Daylight Savings ended this morning, we welcome "Model Watching" an hour earlier!  Over here in AZ, the time stays the same and does not change, however, I do get to see the models come in an hour earlier.  

 

Edit: In other news, go out an play the Powerball as the Monday drawing is now $1.9 billion!  $929M cash value.

[Tom]

@hawkstwelve, I'm getting the chills just looking at the GEFS ensembles.  Your going to Freeze my man!  Gosh, that's some brutal cold for Novembrrrr...hope you score some snow with the Veteran's Day storm.

[Tom]

Mid-Month Winter Storm over the Plains starting to look interesting for our central members...

 

"Barney Alert"...5-day Euro Control Temp Anomaly...Yikes!  @Grizzcoat, you cut down cords of wood yet?  

 

 

 

[Clinton]

18 minutes ago, Tom said:

Mid-Month Winter Storm over the Plains starting to look interesting for our central members...

 

"Barney Alert"...5-day Euro Control Temp Anomaly...Yikes!  @Grizzcoat, you cut down cords of wood yet?  

 

 

 

I think we have 2 snow storms to track as the tanking EPO and phase 7 MJO combine to give us some stormy weather.  The first storm looks to bring precipitation to @CentralNebWeatherand @hawkstwelve.  The GFS has been trending slower, stronger and further SE.  The 6z GFS has a blizzard very close to a few of our guys.

The second has been showing up on the GFS and Euro Control for days 9 and 10 for a few runs in a row.  As Tom mentioned it looks very interesting for us in the Central Plains.  First accumulating snow for KC?

6z GFS 

0z Euro Control