November 2022 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

This is about what was forecasted here:

[Niko]

Big changes next weekend as a potent CF ushers in possibly the coldest weather of the season thus far. Highs might not get outta the 30s, along w/ snowshwers in the air as well.

NOAA:

Ensemble and deterministic guidance has remained consistent in
bringing a long wave trough across the central and eastern US on
Friday and into the weekend. This system would send a cold front
through the region around Friday and bring a much colder weather for
next weekend with high temperatures possibly topping out around 40
degrees.

[Niko]

This current CF brought some windy conditions today, but nothing too extreme. A few showers as well. Anyways, a brief cooldown early next week followed by a big warm - up (70s once again) by mid week b4 things really turn colder by weeks end and and especially by the weekend. From the 70s, we will end up going into the teens and 20s w/ snowshowers. What a sharp contrast.

[jaster220]

15 minutes ago, Niko said:

This current CF brought some windy conditions today, but nothing too extreme. A few showers as well. Anyways, a brief cooldown early next week followed by a big warm - up (70s once again) by mid week b4 things really turn colder by weeks end and and especially by the weekend. From the 70s, we will end up going into the teens and 20s w/ snowshowers. What a sharp contrast.

Gonna feel brutal. Wish it would've just kept trending BN, lol

Today was a fun little hint at what's to come.

[Niko]

17 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Gonna feel brutal. Wish it would've just kept trending BN, lol

Today was a fun little hint at what's to come.

I'm liking the fact that it has been warm lately. I'd say lets have this warm air around till mid November and then, it will be an ideal time to start bringing in some cold air in just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday.

 

[jaster220]

8 minutes ago, Niko said:

I'm liking the fact that it has been warm lately. I'd say lets have this warm air around till mid November and then, it will be an ideal time to start bringing in some cold air in just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday.

 

I'm getting old, lol and feeling the chill more than I used to. It's a real phenomenon. I never liked being cold, just tolerated it better. As a kid I'd ride my bike around all winter. I remember being half frozen in the brutal winter of '76-77. Numb and blue extremities was normal back then. I couldn't imagine doing that now. 1/6/14 was the last time I was that frozen. Clearing my driveway in -16F/-41F WC that evening after work. We had that sub-zero day in 2019 but I didn't have to be outside except in/out of the car, etc. My car throttle actually froze-up that day, so my wife and daughter came and got me after work and I got into a nice toasty car. Maybe I'll get some electric socks or something? Up North we had some brutal winters too. I remember Jan of '94 the thermometer outside the south facing window in my kitchen would be -25F every evening. And we were only 3 miles from the big water. It was much much colder inland where I went to work everyday after clearing the nightly round of LES. But I was in my 20's and into snowmobiling and all that so I dealt with it.  

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

I'm getting old, lol and feeling the chill more than I used to. It's a real phenomenon. I never liked being cold, just tolerated it better. As a kid I'd ride my bike around all winter. I remember being half frozen in the brutal winter of '76-77. Numb and blue extremities was normal back then. I couldn't imagine doing that now. 1/6/14 was the last time I was that frozen. Clearing my driveway in -16F/-41F WC that evening after work. We had that sub-zero day in 2019 but I didn't have to be outside except in/out of the car, etc. My car throttle actually froze-up that day, so my wife and daughter came and got me after work and I got into a nice toasty car. Maybe I'll get some electric socks or something? Up North we had some brutal winters too. I remember Jan of '94 the thermometer outside the south facing window in my kitchen would be -25F every evening. And we were only 3 miles from the big water. It was much much colder inland where I went to work everyday after clearing the nightly round of LES. But I was in my 20's and into snowmobiling and all that so I dealt with it.  

Age is only a number bud.

I'm glad you brought up January 94 because I remember that winter like yesterday. A very cold winter that year in NYC w daytime highs in the single digits and lows below zero. For NYC standards, that is brutal. I had gone to a party one evening and I remember walking to my car (literally 2 blocks away) and had to get inside a building to warm up. My left eye had a blackish mark and yup, you guessed it ( frostbite). WCF in the -20s. I was layered up, but not fully. It was such a harsh winter w snow after snow. I remember we had snows in April and the the funny thing is that previous snows that had fallen back in November were still on the ground. So, as you can see, no melting occurred at all during that winter.  Ahh, the good ol' winters.

 

[Tom]

As Daylight Savings ended this morning, we welcome "Model Watching" an hour earlier!  Over here in AZ, the time stays the same and does not change, however, I do get to see the models come in an hour earlier.  

 

Edit: In other news, go out an play the Powerball as the Monday drawing is now $1.9 billion!  $929M cash value.

[Tom]

@hawkstwelve, I'm getting the chills just looking at the GEFS ensembles.  Your going to Freeze my man!  Gosh, that's some brutal cold for Novembrrrr...hope you score some snow with the Veteran's Day storm.

[Tom]

Mid-Month Winter Storm over the Plains starting to look interesting for our central members...

 

"Barney Alert"...5-day Euro Control Temp Anomaly...Yikes!  @Grizzcoat, you cut down cords of wood yet?  

 

 

 

[Clinton]

18 minutes ago, Tom said:

Mid-Month Winter Storm over the Plains starting to look interesting for our central members...

 

"Barney Alert"...5-day Euro Control Temp Anomaly...Yikes!  @Grizzcoat, you cut down cords of wood yet?  

 

 

 

I think we have 2 snow storms to track as the tanking EPO and phase 7 MJO combine to give us some stormy weather.  The first storm looks to bring precipitation to @CentralNebWeatherand @hawkstwelve.  The GFS has been trending slower, stronger and further SE.  The 6z GFS has a blizzard very close to a few of our guys.

The second has been showing up on the GFS and Euro Control for days 9 and 10 for a few runs in a row.  As Tom mentioned it looks very interesting for us in the Central Plains.  First accumulating snow for KC?

6z GFS 

0z Euro Control

[westMJim]

Welcome to winter time, whoops I mean standard time. We will be on this time for only the next 4 months. Not sure how much longer we will be changing the time but as we are on this time only for 4 months it should not be called standard time.

Yesterday had some periods of strong winds and a few showers. The official H/L for Grand Rapids was 66/48 here in MBY my high was 65. There was officially 0.06” of rain fall (I had 0.16”) and there was no sunshine. There was a new record high set in Muskegon of 71 yesterday and that high of 66 was the 6^th warmest at GR.  The overnight low here in MBY was 41 when there was some clearing. At the current time it is cloudy and 44 here. For today the average H/L is 51/36 the record high of 77 was reported in 1975 and the record low of 9 was reported in 1951. The record snow fall amount of 4.0” was recorded in 1988.

[Tom]

21 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I think we have 2 snow storms to track as the tanking EPO and phase 7 MJO combine to give us some stormy weather.  The first storm looks to bring precipitation to @CentralNebWeatherand @hawkstwelve.  The GFS has been trending slower, stronger and further SE.  The 6z GFS has a blizzard very close to a few of our guys.

The second has been showing up on the GFS and Euro Control for days 9 and 10 for a few runs in a row.  As Tom mentioned it looks very interesting for us in the Central Plains.  First accumulating snow for KC?

6z GFS 

0z Euro Control

I think its time to get into that Winter Storm tracking mode...I've been sorta feeling the seasons out here in AZ as we have seen some real deal Autumn weather for the SW desert standards.  Autumn came here fast a little over a week ago and it appears we will continue this trend for at least the next 10 days.  I gotta be honest, I don't know how I'm going to acclimate to those temps when I get back home.  It feels cold for me with temps in the mid 40's around sunrise!  

[Black Hole]

From yesterdays 18z GFS. Looks fun! lol

[Black Hole]

But in all seriousness there is some growing support for at least a snow tease during that 9-13 day period. It'll be something to watch. 

[chescowxman]

We set a new record maximum low temperature this AM as we only dropped to 63.2 here in Chester County PA. This breaks the old mark of 62.5 set back in 2015. We will break another record overnight tonight as we should again stay above 60 degrees. The current record for November 7th is the 57 degrees set way back in 1912.

We should see temps fall back to near normal during the middle of the upcoming week before a slight rebound to above temps before much colder and below normal weather arrives by next Sunday. I suspect the 2nd half of November will average well below normal temps to balance off much of the early month warmth.

[Andie]

WOW!! 

61*   33% humidity, Sunny

I don’t think it can get any prettier in Texas.  If it can, I want to be there!!

[Andie]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I think its time to get into that Winter Storm tracking mode...I've been sorta feeling the seasons out here in AZ as we have seen some real deal Autumn weather for the SW desert standards.  Autumn came here fast a little over a week ago and it appears we will continue this trend for at least the next 10 days.  I gotta be honest, I don't know how I'm going to acclimate to those temps when I get back home.  It feels cold for me with temps in the mid 40's around sunrise!  

That’s the problem with the SW!!   
We get accustomed to beautiful pleasant springs and falls and Boom! Winter slams into you and you’re left dazed, confused and freezing your tookus off!!

I have family in Tucson and they laugh at how dumb we are to live in hot humid Texas. But we have pluses they don’t.  I like visiting Az though. Nice people. Loads of beauty.  

[james1976]

Vets Day powerhouse on the 12z GFS. Wow. @hawkstwelve might get your first storm of the season. 

[Doinko]

Almost the entire CONUS is in the blue!

[Madtown]

Snowblower is going on the tractor this week...ice rink is up.  let's get it on!

[Grizzcoat]

13 hours ago, Tom said:

Mid-Month Winter Storm over the Plains starting to look interesting for our central members...

 

"Barney Alert"...5-day Euro Control Temp Anomaly...Yikes!  @Grizzcoat, you cut down cords of wood yet?  

 

 

 

Yeah I got 5 cords as of this writing. Need one more and I should be good even if the winter is severe.

[jaster220]

23 hours ago, Niko said:

Age is only a number bud.

I'm glad you brought up January 94 because I remember that winter like yesterday. A very cold winter that year in NYC w daytime highs in the single digits and lows below zero. For NYC standards, that is brutal. I had gone to a party one evening and I remember walking to my car (literally 2 blocks away) and had to get inside a building to warm up. My left eye had a blackish mark and yup, you guessed it ( frostbite). WCF in the -20s. I was layered up, but not fully. It was such a harsh winter w snow after snow. I remember we had snows in April and the the funny thing is that previous snows that had fallen back in November were still on the ground. So, as you can see, no melting occurred at all during that winter.  Ahh, the good ol' winters.

 

Haha easy for you to say. Just wait. A day is coming when you'll be trying to convince your (insert body part of choice) that it feels the same it had 40 years prior. Calm cold isn't rough but WC is bad. 

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, Doinko said:

Almost the entire CONUS is in the blue!

You skipped the crazier one

 

[Tom]

The storm that "Flips the Switch" and Ol' Man Winter makes his appearance into the lower 48...

 

 

[westMJim]

Yesterday was yet another very warm early November day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 64/43 There was no rain fall and 65% of possible sunshine. That 64 was the 12^th warmest November 6^th on record at Grand Rapids. The overnight low here in MBY is the current temperature of 39 with clear skies. For today the average H/L is now down to 51/35. The record high of 71 was in 2020 and the record low of 14 was in 1991. The snow fall record of 6.0” was in 1951. Last year it was a mild 65/37. It looks like we have a 4 more days of warm to very warm (by November standards) before a pattern change for at least 2 weeks. There looks like there is a increasing chance of so good lake effect snows starting this weekend.  Of note the forecast high of around 70 for Thursday would be in the near record range. The record is 74 but no other time has it gotten to 70. So when the cold air gets here the lakes should be warm for this time of year. Of course the wind will bring up colder water.

 

[westMJim]

24 minutes ago, Tom said:

The storm that "Flips the Switch" and Ol' Man Winter makes his appearance into the lower 48..

With the warm days we have had it will be quite the shock for us for sure.

[chescowxman]

One last mild day but with temps likely falling this afternoon following this morning's cold frontal passage. The next couple of days following today will see a return to normal temps....but this will feel chilly compared to the last 3 days of 70 degree plus temps. Tuesday and Wednesday will see highs in the mid 50's with lows in the 30's. Friday into Saturday looks like a soaking rain with some tropical storm Nicole influence. Following that it looks like the coldest weather of the fall will set in starting next Saturday night.

The record high for today is 75 degrees set in 1938. Our record low is 19 degrees set in 1960. The daily rainfall record is the 1.38" that fell today in 1932.

[Tom]

"Geek Alert"...the Monster European Ridge will be one of the key factors that weakens the PV as it migrates into Scandinavia.  Notice how both the Alaskan/Scandinavian Ridge "hook" up over the Top and form 2 main Vortex's in the Northern Hemisphere...One in Siberia and the other in North America.   Cross Polar Flow...Here we go!

I'll take a shot at another LR call around our Thanksgiving holiday and the pattern is looking prime for a west-based Greenland Block to develop.  There is a good LR signal for a -NAO to blossom and hold for quite a while into early DEC.  This would open the door for a Festive holiday period right when it starts to count!  Dreaming of a white Thanksgiving???

 

[Tom]

The SOI is crashing...another sign the atmosphere is changing...SER will go on hiatus for a bit...

[tStacsh]

Looks like flakes will fly from LES next weekend and beyond.  Taking Thursday off to finish the outside cleanup.  Temps in Low 70's and then Fall is officially over for a while.  Should have some white ground by this time next week.  Right around our average first 1" of snow,  maybe a little early?

[MIKEKC]

3.21 inches of rain Friday and Saturday in my part of KC followed by a dusting of snow Saturday morning.  Total of 4.53 inches in two storms 11 days a part. Just what  we needed after a drought set up shop back in June. 

 

Now....winter about to show up. Cold, lets see if we can score an early snow event. November snow has been rare in KC the last 10 years. 

[Bryan1117]

40 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

3.21 inches of rain Friday and Saturday in my part of KC followed by a dusting of snow Saturday morning.  Total of 4.53 inches in two storms 11 days a part. Just what  we needed after a drought set up shop back in June. 

 

Now....winter about to show up. Cold, lets see if we can score an early snow event. November snow has been rare in KC the last 10 years. 

Wow, those are some impressive totals - could you please send the next one our way up north??? If at all possible LOL.

We really need a big storm up here to break our recent run of bad luck around here.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, Bryan1117 said:

Wow, those are some impressive totals - could you please send the next one our way up north??? If at all possible LOL.

We desperately need a big storm up here to break our recent bad luck.

Makes our total of 0.01" in November seem even more depressing.

[jaster220]

12 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Wow. Quite the November outbreak being shown on the 00z GFS. Look at those surface temps! Coast to coast cold. Pretty impressive.

Wonder how that would stack-up against Nov 2014? Who was mentioning that outbreak?

[Madtown]

35 and overcast. One last leaf clean up. Winds last night cleared out a lot of the oak trees.

[Andie]

Who says Texas doesn’t have a Fall?!

76 at 3pm. Very Light rain. 
Leaves just turning. 
Nice Fall day. Plenty of atmosphere. Good day for a walk in the park.  Or a glass of wine under roofed patio.  
More please.  

[Andie]

18 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Haha easy for you to say. Just wait. A day is coming when you'll be trying to convince your (insert body part of choice) that it feels the same it had 40 years prior. Calm cold isn't rough but WC is bad. 

I concur Jaster!  Every injury I ever had and some I forgot hurts when damp cold hits.  
Some days I really regret teaching TaiKwonDo. Every injury hurts. 

[Niko]

Such a beautiful day today. Just splendid. Temps in the 60s w/ abundant of sunshine. Some snowshowers possible this upcoming weekend along w much colder temps. 

[Timmy Supercell]

I went sort of quiet, yeah. Weather hasn't been as eventful, but Fall (and hopefully more rain!) returns in a few days. 

We had a few above average days, complete turn around from how we started Fall. 

[Madtown]

Leaf battle 2022 is over. I hope

[Clinton]

Very nice Fall day with temps in the upper 50s.  Temps will get close to breaking a record high on Wednesday before the cold moves in for the weekend.

[OKwx2k4]

On 11/6/2022 at 8:18 AM, Black Hole said:

From yesterdays 18z GFS. Looks fun! lol

Whoah. Holy cow. 

[OKwx2k4]

11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Wonder how that would stack-up against Nov 2014? Who was mentioning that outbreak?

If my memory serves me, this beats it to pieces. That's pretty darn cold!

[Tom]

It looks a bit better as the moon is now in full eclipse…really neat to see the reddish tint to the moon.

[Tom]

0z Euro..."Unleash the Hounds of the Arctic"...Let it Snow...

 

That mid-month storm in the Plains showing up in the operational runs...

[Clinton]

20 minutes ago, Tom said:

It looks a bit better as the moon is now in full eclipse…really neat to see the reddish tint to the moon.

Very cool to see, glad I was up for it!

[westMJim]

While yesterday was the coolest day so far this November it was still above average. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 52/36. There was no rain fall and 100% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY reached 32 but has now got up to 37 with some clouds. It looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 34. For today the average H/L is 51/35 the record high of 74 was in 2020 and the record low of 16 was in 1976 and again in 1991. The most snow fall of 7.5” was in 1921. The next 3 days look to stay warm before we cool down over the weekend and then there is a chance of some snow in parts of west Michigan.

 

[chescowxman]

Happy Election Day!! Make sure you get out to vote!!

Much cooler today and tomorrow with temps running just a bit below average. Many spots will see freezing temps overnight tonight. Milder but with heavy rain Friday into early Saturday and then the coldest air of the season arrives by Saturday night.

The record high for today is 76 degrees in 1975. The record low is 17 degrees set in 1976. Our daily rainfall record is 2.53" from 1996. The daily snowfall record is 0.8" set in 1927.

[tStacsh]

Gonna waste the early cold in the lower Midwest with no storms.  Then it will get warm again for the last week of November and early December.