westMJim Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 Welcome to winter time, whoops I mean standard time. We will be on this time for only the next 4 months. Not sure how much longer we will be changing the time but as we are on this time only for 4 months it should not be called standard time. Yesterday had some periods of strong winds and a few showers. The official H/L for Grand Rapids was 66/48 here in MBY my high was 65. There was officially 0.06” of rain fall (I had 0.16”) and there was no sunshine. There was a new record high set in Muskegon of 71 yesterday and that high of 66 was the 6th warmest at GR. The overnight low here in MBY was 41 when there was some clearing. At the current time it is cloudy and 44 here. For today the average H/L is 51/36 the record high of 77 was reported in 1975 and the record low of 9 was reported in 1951. The record snow fall amount of 4.0” was recorded in 1988. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 21 minutes ago, Clinton said: I think we have 2 snow storms to track as the tanking EPO and phase 7 MJO combine to give us some stormy weather. The first storm looks to bring precipitation to @CentralNebWeatherand @hawkstwelve. The GFS has been trending slower, stronger and further SE. The 6z GFS has a blizzard very close to a few of our guys. The second has been showing up on the GFS and Euro Control for days 9 and 10 for a few runs in a row. As Tom mentioned it looks very interesting for us in the Central Plains. First accumulating snow for KC? 6z GFS 0z Euro Control I think its time to get into that Winter Storm tracking mode...I've been sorta feeling the seasons out here in AZ as we have seen some real deal Autumn weather for the SW desert standards. Autumn came here fast a little over a week ago and it appears we will continue this trend for at least the next 10 days. I gotta be honest, I don't know how I'm going to acclimate to those temps when I get back home. It feels cold for me with temps in the mid 40's around sunrise! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 From yesterdays 18z GFS. Looks fun! lol 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 But in all seriousness there is some growing support for at least a snow tease during that 9-13 day period. It'll be something to watch. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: I think we have 2 snow storms to track as the tanking EPO and phase 7 MJO combine to give us some stormy weather. The first storm looks to bring precipitation to @CentralNebWeatherand @hawkstwelve. The GFS has been trending slower, stronger and further SE. The 6z GFS has a blizzard very close to a few of our guys. The second has been showing up on the GFS and Euro Control for days 9 and 10 for a few runs in a row. As Tom mentioned it looks very interesting for us in the Central Plains. First accumulating snow for KC? 6z GFS 0z Euro Control I've been watching that slower, stronger SE trend that the models started to hint at yesterday. Each model suite has made slight corrections in that direction. As you mentioned, 06z GFS got us our closest call yet of the past couple days. Just a few more notches to the south and I'll be back in business! 3 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowxman Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 We set a new record maximum low temperature this AM as we only dropped to 63.2 here in Chester County PA. This breaks the old mark of 62.5 set back in 2015. We will break another record overnight tonight as we should again stay above 60 degrees. The current record for November 7th is the 57 degrees set way back in 1912. We should see temps fall back to near normal during the middle of the upcoming week before a slight rebound to above temps before much colder and below normal weather arrives by next Sunday. I suspect the 2nd half of November will average well below normal temps to balance off much of the early month warmth. 2 Quote DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted here is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop and spotter observed climate data for the county. We make no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. Unlike NOAA, we do not apply any post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the NWS observers. Climate change is natural and is not leading to future calamity. The only true “Climate Deniers” are people who think the climate should be unchanging. Specifically the Chester County PA analysis has only yielded normal and expected cyclical warming and cooling trends since the 1880's. Any model predictions of catastrophic climate change are not science. Pay little attention to data derived from climate models. To date we have yet to validate even one predicted climate or weather event attributable to climate change. Climate science is only advanced by continually questioning it and challenging it based on the actual climate data. Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 36.3" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7" to date) - 02/27 (0.3")/ 02/01 (0.2") / 1/31 (0.1") / 01/25 (0.8") / 01/23 (0.5") / 12/23 (0.5") / 12/15 (0.3" ) / 2021/22 (20.5") 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0"). Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and the #1 source of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Contamination analysis follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and be sure to join the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx NWS Trained Observer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 Speaking of improvements, 06z GEFS had it's highest mean snowfall yet for this storm. Also took a look at some airports in Nebraska panhandle and they look to be trending snowier too. Not sure if we have any members over there? Personally, #26 doesn't look half bad. 1 1 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 WOW!! 61* 33% humidity, Sunny I don’t think it can get any prettier in Texas. If it can, I want to be there!! 3 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Tom said: I think its time to get into that Winter Storm tracking mode...I've been sorta feeling the seasons out here in AZ as we have seen some real deal Autumn weather for the SW desert standards. Autumn came here fast a little over a week ago and it appears we will continue this trend for at least the next 10 days. I gotta be honest, I don't know how I'm going to acclimate to those temps when I get back home. It feels cold for me with temps in the mid 40's around sunrise! That’s the problem with the SW!! We get accustomed to beautiful pleasant springs and falls and Boom! Winter slams into you and you’re left dazed, confused and freezing your tookus off!! I have family in Tucson and they laugh at how dumb we are to live in hot humid Texas. But we have pluses they don’t. I like visiting Az though. Nice people. Loads of beauty. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 Vets Day powerhouse on the 12z GFS. Wow. @hawkstwelve might get your first storm of the season. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 Almost the entire CONUS is in the blue! 4 2 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 Snowblower is going on the tractor this week...ice rink is up. let's get it on! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 13 hours ago, Tom said: Mid-Month Winter Storm over the Plains starting to look interesting for our central members... "Barney Alert"...5-day Euro Control Temp Anomaly...Yikes! @Grizzcoat, you cut down cords of wood yet? Yeah I got 5 cords as of this writing. Need one more and I should be good even if the winter is severe. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 18z GEFS showing 10 days in a row with highs in the 20s. The move toward the Canadian ensembles is all but complete. Have to hand it to that ensemble suite and not wavering for a long time on projecting temps in the 20s. Pretty impressive! 1 1 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 23 hours ago, Niko said: Age is only a number bud. I'm glad you brought up January 94 because I remember that winter like yesterday. A very cold winter that year in NYC w daytime highs in the single digits and lows below zero. For NYC standards, that is brutal. I had gone to a party one evening and I remember walking to my car (literally 2 blocks away) and had to get inside a building to warm up. My left eye had a blackish mark and yup, you guessed it ( frostbite). WCF in the -20s. I was layered up, but not fully. It was such a harsh winter w snow after snow. I remember we had snows in April and the the funny thing is that previous snows that had fallen back in November were still on the ground. So, as you can see, no melting occurred at all during that winter. Ahh, the good ol' winters. Haha easy for you to say. Just wait. A day is coming when you'll be trying to convince your (insert body part of choice) that it feels the same it had 40 years prior. Calm cold isn't rough but WC is bad. 1 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 8 hours ago, Doinko said: Almost the entire CONUS is in the blue! You skipped the crazier one 3 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 Wow. Quite the November outbreak being shown on the 00z GFS. Look at those surface temps! Coast to coast cold. Pretty impressive. 5 2 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 The storm that "Flips the Switch" and Ol' Man Winter makes his appearance into the lower 48... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 Yesterday was yet another very warm early November day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 64/43 There was no rain fall and 65% of possible sunshine. That 64 was the 12th warmest November 6th on record at Grand Rapids. The overnight low here in MBY is the current temperature of 39 with clear skies. For today the average H/L is now down to 51/35. The record high of 71 was in 2020 and the record low of 14 was in 1991. The snow fall record of 6.0” was in 1951. Last year it was a mild 65/37. It looks like we have a 4 more days of warm to very warm (by November standards) before a pattern change for at least 2 weeks. There looks like there is a increasing chance of so good lake effect snows starting this weekend. Of note the forecast high of around 70 for Thursday would be in the near record range. The record is 74 but no other time has it gotten to 70. So when the cold air gets here the lakes should be warm for this time of year. Of course the wind will bring up colder water. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 24 minutes ago, Tom said: The storm that "Flips the Switch" and Ol' Man Winter makes his appearance into the lower 48.. With the warm days we have had it will be quite the shock for us for sure. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowxman Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 One last mild day but with temps likely falling this afternoon following this morning's cold frontal passage. The next couple of days following today will see a return to normal temps....but this will feel chilly compared to the last 3 days of 70 degree plus temps. Tuesday and Wednesday will see highs in the mid 50's with lows in the 30's. Friday into Saturday looks like a soaking rain with some tropical storm Nicole influence. Following that it looks like the coldest weather of the fall will set in starting next Saturday night. The record high for today is 75 degrees set in 1938. Our record low is 19 degrees set in 1960. The daily rainfall record is the 1.38" that fell today in 1932. Quote DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted here is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop and spotter observed climate data for the county. We make no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. Unlike NOAA, we do not apply any post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the NWS observers. Climate change is natural and is not leading to future calamity. The only true “Climate Deniers” are people who think the climate should be unchanging. Specifically the Chester County PA analysis has only yielded normal and expected cyclical warming and cooling trends since the 1880's. Any model predictions of catastrophic climate change are not science. Pay little attention to data derived from climate models. To date we have yet to validate even one predicted climate or weather event attributable to climate change. Climate science is only advanced by continually questioning it and challenging it based on the actual climate data. Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 36.3" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7" to date) - 02/27 (0.3")/ 02/01 (0.2") / 1/31 (0.1") / 01/25 (0.8") / 01/23 (0.5") / 12/23 (0.5") / 12/15 (0.3" ) / 2021/22 (20.5") 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0"). Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and the #1 source of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Contamination analysis follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and be sure to join the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx NWS Trained Observer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 "Geek Alert"...the Monster European Ridge will be one of the key factors that weakens the PV as it migrates into Scandinavia. Notice how both the Alaskan/Scandinavian Ridge "hook" up over the Top and form 2 main Vortex's in the Northern Hemisphere...One in Siberia and the other in North America. Cross Polar Flow...Here we go! I'll take a shot at another LR call around our Thanksgiving holiday and the pattern is looking prime for a west-based Greenland Block to develop. There is a good LR signal for a -NAO to blossom and hold for quite a while into early DEC. This would open the door for a Festive holiday period right when it starts to count! Dreaming of a white Thanksgiving??? 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 The SOI is crashing...another sign the atmosphere is changing...SER will go on hiatus for a bit... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 Looks like flakes will fly from LES next weekend and beyond. Taking Thursday off to finish the outside cleanup. Temps in Low 70's and then Fall is officially over for a while. Should have some white ground by this time next week. Right around our average first 1" of snow, maybe a little early? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 3.21 inches of rain Friday and Saturday in my part of KC followed by a dusting of snow Saturday morning. Total of 4.53 inches in two storms 11 days a part. Just what we needed after a drought set up shop back in June. Now....winter about to show up. Cold, lets see if we can score an early snow event. November snow has been rare in KC the last 10 years. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 40 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: 3.21 inches of rain Friday and Saturday in my part of KC followed by a dusting of snow Saturday morning. Total of 4.53 inches in two storms 11 days a part. Just what we needed after a drought set up shop back in June. Now....winter about to show up. Cold, lets see if we can score an early snow event. November snow has been rare in KC the last 10 years. Wow, those are some impressive totals - could you please send the next one our way up north??? If at all possible LOL. We really need a big storm up here to break our recent run of bad luck around here. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Bryan1117 said: Wow, those are some impressive totals - could you please send the next one our way up north??? If at all possible LOL. We desperately need a big storm up here to break our recent bad luck. Makes our total of 0.01" in November seem even more depressing. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 12 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Wow. Quite the November outbreak being shown on the 00z GFS. Look at those surface temps! Coast to coast cold. Pretty impressive. Wonder how that would stack-up against Nov 2014? Who was mentioning that outbreak? Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 35 and overcast. One last leaf clean up. Winds last night cleared out a lot of the oak trees. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 Who says Texas doesn’t have a Fall?! 76 at 3pm. Very Light rain. Leaves just turning. Nice Fall day. Plenty of atmosphere. Good day for a walk in the park. Or a glass of wine under roofed patio. More please. 4 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 18 hours ago, jaster220 said: Haha easy for you to say. Just wait. A day is coming when you'll be trying to convince your (insert body part of choice) that it feels the same it had 40 years prior. Calm cold isn't rough but WC is bad. I concur Jaster! Every injury I ever had and some I forgot hurts when damp cold hits. Some days I really regret teaching TaiKwonDo. Every injury hurts. 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 Such a beautiful day today. Just splendid. Temps in the 60s w/ abundant of sunshine. Some snowshowers possible this upcoming weekend along w much colder temps. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23 for Metro Detroit Area Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0" Nov'22: 2.5" Below Average /Normal is 2.9" Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.5" Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.3" Feb '23: 2.2" Well Below Average / Normal is 18.4" March '23: 16.1" Above Average / Normal is 5.0" (Season is @ 37.0") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 I went sort of quiet, yeah. Weather hasn't been as eventful, but Fall (and hopefully more rain!) returns in a few days. We had a few above average days, complete turn around from how we started Fall. 4 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '21-'22 Winter Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th) December: 0.1" January: 9.9" February: 1.3" March: 4.8" Snow days: 10 First freeze: Nov 3rd Other 2022 Stats Thunders: 53 (as of 12/3) Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4 Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1 Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12) Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6) '22-'23 Winter Snowfall - 0.60" First freeze: Oct 9th Measurable snows: 2 Coldest low: -3 (12/23) Thunders 1/3, 1/12, 3/1, Other 2023 Stats Max Wind: 50mph (3/3) Tornado Watches/Warnings: 1 / 0 Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 0 / 1 Hailstorms: None yet ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Leaf battle 2022 is over. I hope 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Very nice Fall day with temps in the upper 50s. Temps will get close to breaking a record high on Wednesday before the cold moves in for the weekend. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 On 11/6/2022 at 8:18 AM, Black Hole said: From yesterdays 18z GFS. Looks fun! lol Whoah. Holy cow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 11 hours ago, jaster220 said: Wonder how that would stack-up against Nov 2014? Who was mentioning that outbreak? If my memory serves me, this beats it to pieces. That's pretty darn cold! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 It looks a bit better as the moon is now in full eclipse…really neat to see the reddish tint to the moon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 0z Euro..."Unleash the Hounds of the Arctic"...Let it Snow... That mid-month storm in the Plains showing up in the operational runs... 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 20 minutes ago, Tom said: It looks a bit better as the moon is now in full eclipse…really neat to see the reddish tint to the moon. Very cool to see, glad I was up for it! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 While yesterday was the coolest day so far this November it was still above average. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 52/36. There was no rain fall and 100% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY reached 32 but has now got up to 37 with some clouds. It looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 34. For today the average H/L is 51/35 the record high of 74 was in 2020 and the record low of 16 was in 1976 and again in 1991. The most snow fall of 7.5” was in 1921. The next 3 days look to stay warm before we cool down over the weekend and then there is a chance of some snow in parts of west Michigan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowxman Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Happy Election Day!! Make sure you get out to vote!! Much cooler today and tomorrow with temps running just a bit below average. Many spots will see freezing temps overnight tonight. Milder but with heavy rain Friday into early Saturday and then the coldest air of the season arrives by Saturday night. The record high for today is 76 degrees in 1975. The record low is 17 degrees set in 1976. Our daily rainfall record is 2.53" from 1996. The daily snowfall record is 0.8" set in 1927. 1 1 Quote DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted here is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop and spotter observed climate data for the county. We make no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. Unlike NOAA, we do not apply any post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the NWS observers. Climate change is natural and is not leading to future calamity. The only true “Climate Deniers” are people who think the climate should be unchanging. Specifically the Chester County PA analysis has only yielded normal and expected cyclical warming and cooling trends since the 1880's. Any model predictions of catastrophic climate change are not science. Pay little attention to data derived from climate models. To date we have yet to validate even one predicted climate or weather event attributable to climate change. Climate science is only advanced by continually questioning it and challenging it based on the actual climate data. Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 36.3" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7" to date) - 02/27 (0.3")/ 02/01 (0.2") / 1/31 (0.1") / 01/25 (0.8") / 01/23 (0.5") / 12/23 (0.5") / 12/15 (0.3" ) / 2021/22 (20.5") 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0"). Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and the #1 source of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Contamination analysis follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and be sure to join the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx NWS Trained Observer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Gonna waste the early cold in the lower Midwest with no storms. Then it will get warm again for the last week of November and early December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowxman Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Of note the first 7 days of November were the warmest ever recorded in Chester County PA with records back to 1888. Our average temperature was 61.6 degrees. The previous top 5 warmest were - 2003 (59.9) / 1977 (58.9) / 2015 (58.8) / 1974 (58.1) and 1961 (57.7) 1 1 Quote DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted here is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop and spotter observed climate data for the county. We make no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. Unlike NOAA, we do not apply any post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the NWS observers. Climate change is natural and is not leading to future calamity. The only true “Climate Deniers” are people who think the climate should be unchanging. Specifically the Chester County PA analysis has only yielded normal and expected cyclical warming and cooling trends since the 1880's. Any model predictions of catastrophic climate change are not science. Pay little attention to data derived from climate models. To date we have yet to validate even one predicted climate or weather event attributable to climate change. Climate science is only advanced by continually questioning it and challenging it based on the actual climate data. Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 36.3" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7" to date) - 02/27 (0.3")/ 02/01 (0.2") / 1/31 (0.1") / 01/25 (0.8") / 01/23 (0.5") / 12/23 (0.5") / 12/15 (0.3" ) / 2021/22 (20.5") 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0"). Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and the #1 source of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Contamination analysis follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and be sure to join the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx NWS Trained Observer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 2nd Very Foggy morning. 68* We’ll have a muggy 80 today. It’s feeling like the temps want to flip to much cooler. Should arrive for Thanksgiving. 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Looks like the MJO will move into phase 6 briefly mid month but right back into phase 7 leading up to Thanksgiving. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Looks like once the cold air arrives, its here to stay. Also, looking forward to seeing some flakes fly this weekend. Puts ya in the holiday spirit. 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23 for Metro Detroit Area Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0" Nov'22: 2.5" Below Average /Normal is 2.9" Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.5" Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.3" Feb '23: 2.2" Well Below Average / Normal is 18.4" March '23: 16.1" Above Average / Normal is 5.0" (Season is @ 37.0") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 3 hours ago, tStacsh said: Gonna waste the early cold in the lower Midwest with no storms. Then it will get warm again for the last week of November and early December. Nov 2013 was similar. Unless you were fortunate to be in far SWMI (I was). There they got two nice LES events of 17" and 15" respectively. Elsewhere inland including my former backyard was just cold and brown until Dec 8th - the start of a truly epic winter. 2 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 This pic is on Dec 5th, 2004 in Astoria, Queens: This was after a mild November, which then turned abruptly colder by mid month and once December arrived, it really got snowy. This snowstorm dropped 16.4" in La Guardia. I remember I could not drive my car ( snow was too deep) to my house, so I had to walk. 6 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23 for Metro Detroit Area Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0" Nov'22: 2.5" Below Average /Normal is 2.9" Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.5" Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.3" Feb '23: 2.2" Well Below Average / Normal is 18.4" March '23: 16.1" Above Average / Normal is 5.0" (Season is @ 37.0") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 As of 3 PM, it is now 67 degrees with a 63 dew point. My goodness, it feels muggy. It was in the 40's this morning with a heavy drizzle and low clouds. Warm front has surged north as the clouds are racing. Sounds like record warm minimum temperatures this evening. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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