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November 2022 Observations and Discussion


Clinton

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13 hours ago, Tom said:

Mid-Month Winter Storm over the Plains starting to look interesting for our central members...

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"Barney Alert"...5-day Euro Control Temp Anomaly...Yikes!  @Grizzcoat, you cut down cords of wood yet?  

 

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Yeah I got 5 cords as of this writing. Need one more and I should be good even if the winter is severe.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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23 hours ago, Niko said:

Age is only a number bud. 😉

I'm glad you brought up January 94 because I remember that winter like yesterday. A very cold winter that year in NYC w daytime highs in the single digits and lows below zero. For NYC standards, that is brutal. I had gone to a party one evening and I remember walking to my car (literally 2 blocks away) and had to get inside a building to warm up. My left eye had a blackish mark and yup, you guessed it ( frostbite). WCF in the -20s. I was layered up, but not fully. It was such a harsh winter w snow after snow. I remember we had snows in April and the the funny thing is that previous snows that had fallen back in November were still on the ground. So, as you can see, no melting occurred at all during that winter.  Ahh, the good ol' winters.

 

Haha easy for you to say. Just wait. A day is coming when you'll be trying to convince your (insert body part of choice) that it feels the same it had 40 years prior. Calm cold isn't rough but WC is bad. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 hours ago, Doinko said:

814temp.new.gif

Almost the entire CONUS is in the blue!

You skipped the crazier one

 

22-11-06 610temp-new.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yesterday was yet another very warm early November day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 64/43 There was no rain fall and 65% of possible sunshine. That 64 was the 12th warmest November 6th on record at Grand Rapids. The overnight low here in MBY is the current temperature of 39 with clear skies. For today the average H/L is now down to 51/35. The record high of 71 was in 2020 and the record low of 14 was in 1991. The snow fall record of 6.0” was in 1951. Last year it was a mild 65/37. It looks like we have a 4 more days of warm to very warm (by November standards) before a pattern change for at least 2 weeks. There looks like there is a increasing chance of so good lake effect snows starting this weekend.  Of note the forecast high of around 70 for Thursday would be in the near record range. The record is 74 but no other time has it gotten to 70. So when the cold air gets here the lakes should be warm for this time of year. Of course the wind will bring up colder water.

 

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One last mild day but with temps likely falling this afternoon following this morning's cold frontal passage. The next couple of days following today will see a return to normal temps....but this will feel chilly compared to the last 3 days of 70 degree plus temps. Tuesday and Wednesday will see highs in the mid 50's with lows in the 30's. Friday into Saturday looks like a soaking rain with some tropical storm Nicole influence. Following that it looks like the coldest weather of the fall will set in starting next Saturday night.
The record high for today is 75 degrees set in 1938. Our record low is 19 degrees set in 1960. The daily rainfall record is the 1.38" that fell today in 1932.
image.png.3d85d0b90a4b559d743e4785ef8c2813.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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"Geek Alert"...the Monster European Ridge will be one of the key factors that weakens the PV as it migrates into Scandinavia.  Notice how both the Alaskan/Scandinavian Ridge "hook" up over the Top and form 2 main Vortex's in the Northern Hemisphere...One in Siberia and the other in North America.   Cross Polar Flow...Here we go!

I'll take a shot at another LR call around our Thanksgiving holiday and the pattern is looking prime for a west-based Greenland Block to develop.  There is a good LR signal for a -NAO to blossom and hold for quite a while into early DEC.  This would open the door for a Festive holiday period right when it starts to count!  Dreaming of a white Thanksgiving???

 

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Looks like flakes will fly from LES next weekend and beyond.  Taking Thursday off to finish the outside cleanup.  Temps in Low 70's and then Fall is officially over for a while.  Should have some white ground by this time next week.  Right around our average first 1" of snow,  maybe a little early?

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3.21 inches of rain Friday and Saturday in my part of KC followed by a dusting of snow Saturday morning.  Total of 4.53 inches in two storms 11 days a part. Just what  we needed after a drought set up shop back in June. 

 

Now....winter about to show up. Cold, lets see if we can score an early snow event. November snow has been rare in KC the last 10 years. 

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40 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

3.21 inches of rain Friday and Saturday in my part of KC followed by a dusting of snow Saturday morning.  Total of 4.53 inches in two storms 11 days a part. Just what  we needed after a drought set up shop back in June. 

 

Now....winter about to show up. Cold, lets see if we can score an early snow event. November snow has been rare in KC the last 10 years. 

Wow, those are some impressive totals - could you please send the next one our way up north??? If at all possible LOL.

We really need a big storm up here to break our recent run of bad luck around here.

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12 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Wow. Quite the November outbreak being shown on the 00z GFS. Look at those surface temps! Coast to coast cold. Pretty impressive.

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8816000.png

gfs-deterministic-conus-t2m_f-8772800.png

Wonder how that would stack-up against Nov 2014? Who was mentioning that outbreak?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Who says Texas doesn’t have a Fall?!

47A872DF-1B43-441C-80B8-E7B3AA991096.thumb.jpeg.8dd56186dd936babe972c05572e7751f.jpeg

76 at 3pm. Very Light rain. 
Leaves just turning. 
Nice Fall day. Plenty of atmosphere. Good day for a walk in the park.  Or a glass of wine under roofed patio.  
More please.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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18 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Haha easy for you to say. Just wait. A day is coming when you'll be trying to convince your (insert body part of choice) that it feels the same it had 40 years prior. Calm cold isn't rough but WC is bad. 

I concur Jaster!  Every injury I ever had and some I forgot hurts when damp cold hits.  
Some days I really regret teaching TaiKwonDo. Every injury hurts. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Such a beautiful day today. Just splendid. Temps in the 60s w/ abundant of sunshine. Some snowshowers possible this upcoming weekend along w much colder temps. 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I went sort of quiet, yeah. Weather hasn't been as eventful, but Fall (and hopefully more rain!) returns in a few days. 

We had a few above average days, complete turn around from how we started Fall. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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While yesterday was the coolest day so far this November it was still above average. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 52/36. There was no rain fall and 100% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY reached 32 but has now got up to 37 with some clouds. It looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 34. For today the average H/L is 51/35 the record high of 74 was in 2020 and the record low of 16 was in 1976 and again in 1991. The most snow fall of 7.5” was in 1921. The next 3 days look to stay warm before we cool down over the weekend and then there is a chance of some snow in parts of west Michigan.

 

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Happy Election Day!! Make sure you get out to vote!!
Much cooler today and tomorrow with temps running just a bit below average. Many spots will see freezing temps overnight tonight. Milder but with heavy rain Friday into early Saturday and then the coldest air of the season arrives by Saturday night.
The record high for today is 76 degrees in 1975. The record low is 17 degrees set in 1976. Our daily rainfall record is 2.53" from 1996. The daily snowfall record is 0.8" set in 1927.
image.png.ed3e43ab43fefdb07e63942847ca8710.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Of note the first 7 days of November were the warmest ever recorded in Chester County PA with records back to 1888. Our average temperature was 61.6 degrees. The previous top 5 warmest were - 2003 (59.9) / 1977 (58.9) / 2015 (58.8) / 1974 (58.1) and 1961 (57.7)

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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2nd Very Foggy morning.   
68*

We’ll have a muggy 80 today.  
It’s feeling like the temps want to flip to much cooler.  Should arrive for Thanksgiving. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Looks like once the cold air arrives, its here to stay. Also, looking forward to seeing some flakes fly this weekend. Puts ya in the holiday spirit.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Gonna waste the early cold in the lower Midwest with no storms.  Then it will get warm again for the last week of November and early December.  

Nov 2013 was similar. Unless you were fortunate to be in far SWMI (I was). There they got two nice LES events of 17" and 15" respectively. Elsewhere inland including my former backyard was just cold and brown until Dec 8th - the start of a truly epic winter. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This pic is on Dec 5th, 2004 in Astoria, Queens: This was after a mild November, which then turned abruptly colder by mid month and once December arrived, it really got snowy. This snowstorm dropped 16.4" in La Guardia. I remember I could not drive my car ( snow was too deep) to my house, so I had to walk.

 

Winter 2004 NYC .jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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6 hours ago, Niko said:

This pic is on Dec 5th, 2004 in Astoria, Queens: This was after a mild November, which then turned abruptly colder by mid month and once December arrived, it really got snowy. This snowstorm dropped 16.4" in La Guardia. I remember I could not drive my car ( snow was too deep) to my house, so I had to walk.

 

Winter 2004 NYC .jpg

Awesome pic bud! Hoping Detroit area can look like that sometime this winter. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Awesome pic bud! Hoping Detroit area can look like that sometime this winter. 

It will. I have a feeling this winter will be rockin here in the Detroit Metro area. 😀

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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