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November 2022 Observations and Discussion


Clinton
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I think it's safe to say the long range is anything but certain. Look at the spread on the latest EPS! From +21c to  -18c and everything in between. Hopefully Clinton's great analysis above proves out right and the colder half of members wins. 🤞

A silver lining regardless of how the temps work out is that signal for some decent precip around the 4th. Some operationals have been showing that recently and it's nice to see some ensemble agreement. There's some 1.5+ inch members in there which would be awesome to get before we potentially drop into the freezer. 

ens_image (4).png

download (27).png

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8 hours ago, Clinton said:

Okay so I'm a little excited about the weather changes we will be experiencing in the next 7 to 10 days.  It's becoming more and more clear that the majority of us will have a early start to Winter.  Lets start with the MJO and where it's headed, why settle for just a cold phase 7 when you can have a even colder and wet phase 8.  The JMA sure looks to be headed that way.

0d40d5_b78c1e5e599145d187a1edeb54647c11~mv2.png

The Euro is starting to correct.

ECMF.png

0d40d5_6e05f5502696485fbe9e1d25e44ae89c~mv2.png

Other teleconnections are singing a cold toon as well, the EPO going negative by week 2

0d40d5_deba389d3c574b4ab62cee223be02d32~mv2.png

Terry Swails blog details the significance of a -EPO

 0d40d5_0dcfd21dc8ef4d73beb6a8ca2f1d2539~mv2.png

A negative AO and NAO is always welcome.

1666915200-aJu7Skcj7mwgrb2.png

1666915200-N9zXImo9BXEgrb2.png

The WPO looks to go negative also which will help keep the EPO negative.  The AO and NAO both are forecasted to dip negative around the same time the EPO is.  All of this sound like a good recipe for some fun Winter weather after we get through the first few days Nov and shake off the phase 6 that we've been in for awhile.  This years LRC (or weather pattern) has shown an ability to produce strong pushes of artic air already with marginal teleconnections.  So when I see teleconnections in sync like this it gets your attention.

Now we need some rain in the Plains, in particular Nebraska.  Both the Euro and GFS showing a wet and strong storm Nov 5th-7th.  The GFS shows a nice swath of precip and a possibility for some severe weather for Oklahoma and Texas.

  1667844000-Di2ZtZqG1CE.png

The EPS has been trending wetter also

1667844000-oAXkqqyTBv4.png

Backside snow for the High Plains will be creeping close to @CentralNebWeather and @hawkstwelve

1667844000-uHKohHfjoBg.png

Whether this all plays out the way I think it will or not one thing I hope we all get is some moisture.  The drought map that @OmahaSnowFan shared earlier just makes you want to cringe.  I hate to see so much of the country that dry, lets hope that changes and we have some exciting weather to discuss.

Great post Clinton and thanks for whipping up a Nov Thread!  You said it best, this years LRC has shown some very intriguing sings that we will see interesting Winter wx in future cycles.  Not only are these storm systems powerful closed low's, blocked up, juiced up...but the tracks are the key and they are targeting the TX/OK regions and 4 corners.  The next storm on deck is showing signs to slam into SoCal/AZ this coming week and deliver another Sig storm for the Rockies and 4 corners.  I'm really digging whats evolving and this is smack dab during the most important part of the developing Autumn pattern.  

Way back in the Summer, I was studying and analyzing the data and had a gut feeling we would be seeing plenty of "Inside Sliders" based upon the storm track in the N PAC and SST anomalies.  It's fun to see how all of this starting to play out.  Check out these animations below and how many systems have taken the "inside slider" routed down the W C.A. shoreline into the PNW/Rockies and then ultimately DIG south into S Plains/MW.

 

image.gif

 

Here's the next Big Trough taking the same route....down the B.C. coastline, into the Rockies/4 Corners...and out into the S Plains/MW.  The other Big clue and characteristic from these systems is the tend to energize or hold their energy right over our Sub instead of weakening and dying out.  This tells me our Sub is in the right spot to see powerful storms going forward, esp when the jet energize and begins to peak in late JAN and early FEB.  

image.gif

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Great post Clinton and thanks for whipping up a Nov Thread!  You said it best, this years LRC has shown some very intriguing sings that we will see interesting Winter wx in future cycles.  Not only are these storm systems powerful closed low's, blocked up, juiced up...but the tracks are the key and they are targeting the TX/OK regions and 4 corners.  The next storm on deck is showing signs to slam into SoCal/AZ this coming week and deliver another Sig storm for the Rockies and 4 corners.  I'm really digging whats evolving and this is smack dab during the most important part of the developing Autumn pattern.  

Way back in the Summer, I was studying and analyzing the data and had a gut feeling we would be seeing plenty of "Inside Sliders" based upon the storm track in the N PAC and SST anomalies.  It's fun to see how all of this starting to play out.  Check out these animations below and how many systems have taken the "inside slider" routed down the W C.A. shoreline into the PNW/Rockies and then ultimately DIG south into S Plains/MW.

 

image.gif

 

Here's the next Big Trough taking the same route....down the B.C. coastline, into the Rockies/4 Corners...and out into the S Plains/MW.  The other Big clue and characteristic from these systems is the tend to energize or hold their energy right over our Sub instead of weakening and dying out.  This tells me our Sub is in the right spot to see powerful storms going forward, esp when the jet energize and begins to peak in late JAN and early FEB.  

image.gif

It sure looks good doesn't it.  The first few weeks of October had me freaked out but your long range ideas have held true.  Gary Lezak seems excited about this pattern and is going to write a detailed blog next week about his impressions of the pattern.  I'm curious to see if they line up with our thinking.

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8 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I think it's safe to say the long range is anything but certain. Look at the spread on the latest EPS! From +21c to  -18c and everything in between. Hopefully Clinton's great analysis above proves out right and the colder half of members wins. 🤞

A silver lining regardless of how the temps work out is that signal for some decent precip around the 4th. Some operationals have been showing that recently and it's nice to see some ensemble agreement. There's some 1.5+ inch members in there which would be awesome to get before we potentially drop into the freezer. 

ens_image (4).png

download (27).png

Lets see if the models come into focus over the weekend.  I just have a feeling that you may see your first snow of the season next weekend.  This strong storm will pull down some very cold air.

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13 hours ago, Clinton said:

Okay so I'm a little excited about the weather changes we will be experiencing in the next 7 to 10 days.  It's becoming more and more clear that the majority of us will have a early start to Winter.  Lets start with the MJO and where it's headed, why settle for just a cold phase 7 when you can have a even colder and wet phase 8.  The JMA sure looks to be headed that way.

0d40d5_b78c1e5e599145d187a1edeb54647c11~mv2.png

The Euro is starting to correct.

ECMF.png

0d40d5_6e05f5502696485fbe9e1d25e44ae89c~mv2.png

Other teleconnections are singing a cold toon as well, the EPO going negative by week 2

0d40d5_deba389d3c574b4ab62cee223be02d32~mv2.png

Terry Swails blog details the significance of a -EPO

 0d40d5_0dcfd21dc8ef4d73beb6a8ca2f1d2539~mv2.png

A negative AO and NAO is always welcome.

1666915200-aJu7Skcj7mwgrb2.png

1666915200-N9zXImo9BXEgrb2.png

The WPO looks to go negative also which will help keep the EPO negative.  The AO and NAO both are forecasted to dip negative around the same time the EPO is.  All of this sound like a good recipe for some fun Winter weather after we get through the first few days Nov and shake off the phase 6 that we've been in for awhile.  This years LRC (or weather pattern) has shown an ability to produce strong pushes of artic air already with marginal teleconnections.  So when I see teleconnections in sync like this it gets your attention.

Now we need some rain in the Plains, in particular Nebraska.  Both the Euro and GFS showing a wet and strong storm Nov 5th-7th.  The GFS shows a nice swath of precip and a possibility for some severe weather for Oklahoma and Texas.

  1667844000-Di2ZtZqG1CE.png

The EPS has been trending wetter also

1667844000-oAXkqqyTBv4.png

Backside snow for the High Plains will be creeping close to @CentralNebWeather and @hawkstwelve

1667844000-uHKohHfjoBg.png

Whether this all plays out the way I think it will or not one thing I hope we all get is some moisture.  The drought map that @OmahaSnowFan shared earlier just makes you want to cringe.  I hate to see so much of the country that dry, lets hope that changes and we have some exciting weather to discuss.

This is awesome. I don't know of anything else to add or take away from that. 

I see the neon orange anomalies on the models for days (above avg temps) but I seriously think its very very misleading. 

Cold from wk 2 on is a huge bet that I'd take blind, too. 

Lock-n-load is all i can say. 

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Lets see if the models come into focus over the weekend.  I just have a feeling that you may see your first snow of the season next weekend.  This strong storm will pull down some very cold air.

This. We're looking at about a realistic 3 day reliability in forecasting right now. 

....SHIFT!! :)

Tom, good stuff as always, too. 

Its a pattern so good it's scary. I think that's why I'm afraid to write about it. Lol.

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Nice work, Clinton. enjoyed reading over your thoughts!!

So far, 3 weeks are in the books for the LRC and KC is drier and warmer than average. The First 10 days of Nov. the CMC and GFS are quite warm, several days in the 70's and a shot a day or two of making a run at 80. 

Last fall we had a warm one and it turned out to be a warmer than average winter, however, we still scored 7 storms Jan. -March, ZERO snow in NOV and DEC. 

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@Clinton@Tom

Nature knows what it's doing when it clears the trees early.  

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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BIG changes in the overnight model runs post Election Day period that has been on the calendar for a little bit.  My original LR call was to look for an expansive HP pattern to blossom over W Canada and bleed south into the Lower 48.  How quick does this Arctic Air pool south???  That's still up in the air but I'm still very confident a colder/wintry pattern will begin to take place by the middle of the month, esp for the Upper MW/Plains region.  You guys in the Central Sub could very well see your 1st flakes and some bonafide winter wx come mid month!

 

Let's see who wins this battle in the LR...0z EPS vs 06z GEFS...The American model is pressing the Arctic Air quicker and doesn't hold the trough out west like the EPS is doing.  

image.gif

 

image.gif

 

We will likely need a Storm thread for the NOV 4rd-7th period...Another TX Panhandle Hook???  You gotta love the potential of this pattern!

 

 

image.gif

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37 minutes ago, Tom said:

BIG changes in the overnight model runs post Election Day period that has been on the calendar for a little bit.  My original LR call was to look for an expansive HP pattern to blossom over W Canada and bleed south into the Lower 48.  How quick does this Arctic Air pool south???  That's still up in the air but I'm still very confident a colder/wintry pattern will begin to take place by the middle of the month, esp for the Upper MW/Plains region.  You guys in the Central Sub could very well see your 1st flakes and some bonafide winter wx come mid month!

 

Let's see who wins this battle in the LR...0z EPS vs 06z GEFS...The American model is pressing the Arctic Air quicker and doesn't hold the trough out west like the EPS is doing.  

image.gif

 

image.gif

 

We will likely need a Storm thread for the NOV 4rd-7th period...Another TX Panhandle Hook???  You gotta love the potential of this pattern!

 

 

image.gif

Man the 0z Euro is wet with some impressive rain totals.  The +AO and NAO may keep the artic air bottled up until the storm passes.  It will be fun to see it evolve the next few days.

1667779200-RNVUR0SaMn4.png

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Quote

but I'm still very confident a colder/wintry pattern will begin to take place by the middle of the month, esp for the Upper MW/Plains region.  You guys in the Central Sub could very well see your 1st flakes and some bonafide winter wx come mid month!

Was just about to post that "Tom will back this up with science, but old-school rules would be screaming at my mind that nature is readying itself for winter in November". How much of a taste my region gets remains TBD, but we've technically (Detroit burbs as well as DTW) already had "first flakes" even tho I myself missed that squall that went just east of here during last week's unseasonably cold storm. I showed my wife a photo from Negaunee on 10/18 with plow banks about 18" high along the streets and everything in a dense blanket of white. We had already rebounded down here to 70F by then and she was amazed that the photo was from anywhere in Michigan.  

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

This model must think @IMoveALot_Weatherstill lives in Fargo lol.

Or someweatherdude just moved there 😆

"When I was a kid, I moved from Texas to Iowa.."

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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12 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

This image right here is my caveat to this coming winter. If we don't get an EPO on our side, we're going to fight bulk loads of cold being offloaded/moderated over the PAC.

 

gfs_T2ma_nhem_32.png

Yep, that'd be like 11/12 gross now wouldn't it? JFYI, checked Oct & Nov for DTW and both months were very mild, with just one freeze on 10/30 (31F) for Oct, and mostly snowless two months until 0.6" on 11/30. 

Not saying your map above is off the table. I've even heard 11/12 mentioned in analog lists (yikes). 

Let's hope we're on a different pathway tho. 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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18z GFS took a nice large step towards the Euro's better pattern evolution. Doesn't dig the trough offshore the W coast nearly as much as previous runs and has much more cold air to work with. Encouraging to see.

18z vs 12z 850s...

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8060000.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8060000 (1).png

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29 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z GFS took a nice large step towards the Euro's better pattern evolution. Doesn't dig the trough offshore the W coast nearly as much as previous runs and has much more cold air to work with. Encouraging to see.

18z vs 12z 850s...

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8060000.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8060000 (1).png

That block in AK is really strong

floop-gfs-2022103018.500h_anom_na.gif

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5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Latest EPS control run unloads the cold air right into the central CONUS. A couple times actually.

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-t850_anom_stream-7973600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-t850_anom_stream-8232800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-t2m_f_anom-8362400.png

That's more like what the real world weather is telling me is coming right there.

I definitely see the conflicts in modeling. Problem is, GFS is still a 3-4 day model right now. 

November 2014 analogs for the win anyone?

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2 hours ago, Madtown said:

Just add snow! Gorgeous day today need to get the rink up asap now!

20221030_180310.jpg

I'm glad to see Christmas lights! I'd just assume celebrate Christmas spirit from now til January anyway. Best season ever. Never too early after the leaves lose their shine, in my opinion. 

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Can't say I'm not tickled with excitement when I see a Plan come together.  As we approach Election day, Winter is coming to those up north and will likely bleed south in a slow progression during Week 2.  Sub-zero cold for parts of the PNW/N Rockies???  I'm pretty sure there will be some outstanding early season cold for them folks.  If nature can lay down some foundation up over MT into ND during this cold wave, then you can bet there will be some records falling.

Build the Alaskan Ridge and nature will unleash the Fridge!

 

image.gif

 

@OKwx2k4 Nov' 14 on roids....2nd run in a row the Euro Control blasts "Barney" down the Plains....the 0z EPS also took a step towards the GEFS and cooled the Plains/MW region for Week 2.

Recap for Nov' 14...

Nov14TDeptUS.png

 

0z Euro Control...

2.gif

 

 

 

#ThinkSnow...

image.png

 

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2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Nice run-to-run change on the 00z EPS to lower heights over the Midwest.

1667952000-0HmPB5R4OZI.png

Can you say "LES by the foot"?

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Just some slightly anomalous cold being shown on the GFS...

1668254400-aBF3TFGcu6M.png

12z GFS is going nuts on Cutters…your prob going to get hit nicely the next couple weeks.  Kick you into Winter mode mighty fast I’d say!

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12z GFS shows 12 inches of snow falling in a 24-hour period ending 11/12 with wind gusts of almost 45mph and temperatures in the teens to single digits. Ambient temperatures are in the negative teens. All before the middle of November. Crazy!!

1668211200-bl6pLbExlDE.png

1668254400-ETi8ssxcHUA.png

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The CFSv2 is predicting a very toasty November.

image.thumb.png.06e0ea8381a083d88a46c3d8ab4aa30a.png

image.thumb.png.25c9d1099165aa09770d82e9ed5841dc.png

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Boy, if the CFSVv2 is right with the MJO forecast, it would represent a rare and exciting rotation through the coldest phases.  The MJO cycles every 30-60 days folks...

image.png

 

Screen Shot 2022-10-31 at 5.58.41 AM.png

Ummmm, the MJO is in Retrograde mode!

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Well it's about that time of year that I start getting the itch to track a big winter storm.  But I'm also really enjoying the warm weather.  I looked back at some old pictures and 2 years recently had snow right before Halloween here. October 19, 2020 we got a couple inches of snow and October 30, 2019 we had about an inch.  So this year by comparison is really nice.  Temperatures in the mid 60s.  It's going to be a much more comfortable night trick or treating tonight.  Maybe in a couple more weeks I'll be ready to see some flakes fly.  :D 

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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Welcome to November! The last day of October was another mild day here in west Michigan. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 59/49 there was officially 0.09” of rain fall and yesterday had 0% of possible sunshine. Here in MBY I recorded 0.02” of rain fall after 7 AM yesterday. The overnight low here in MBY fell to 44 before rising to the current temperature of 51. The official low looks to have been 50 at GRR. For today the average H/L is 54/37 the record high is 81 set in 1950. That is the latest high of 80 or better at GRR so far. So it is safe to say we should not see 80 or better until at least March and more likely than not April or May. The record low of 21 was set in 1976.  The record snow fall of 4.0” fell in 1912. Last year the H/L was 47/36.

Looking back at October for Grand Rapids the mean of 50.6 was a departure of -0.9 the average H/L for the month was 61.8/39.5. The high for the month was 77 on the 24th there were 9 days of 70 or better. The low for the month was 29 on the 27th there were 3 nights of low of 32 or lower. There was 3.74” of rain fall that is below the average of 4.02” there was a trace of snow fall and that is below the average of 0.3”

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