November 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Anti Marine Layer]

Time and Date

11/1/2022 8:06:44 PM

Solar Declination

14.71 S

Equation of Time

16.48

Minutes for Solar Declination to change by .01

45.46

Minutes for Equation of Time to change by .01

849.82

[Anti Marine Layer]

[Tom]

What way to open up the 1st week of NOV for our folks out west...my goodness, isn't this just what the doctor ordered?  I'd love to be in Truckee or Tahoe for this multi-day event.  FEET of Snow are expected to wallop the West...

 

 

[Tom]

There are a couple storm systems brewing up for the 1st Full week of NOV...Election Day Upper MW Blitz???  Pre-Veteran's Day GL's Cutter??  Both systems are intriguing as they will likely spark severe wx somewhere over the Heartland but more importantly, as a winter wx enthusiast, you gotta love the expansive snow shield that the 0z EPS is suggesting to build in S Canada and the northern Lower 48.  IMHO, this is what we need to set up NOW rather than later when the cold eventually does come down south.

 

I wanted to post the EPS run yesterday but waited till today's 0z EPS and there are notable changes in the North American 500mb pattern.  The Arctic Air bottled up in W Canada appears it will break the dam and unload into the Plains Week 2.  Giddy up...I think we have ourselves the 1st potential Winter Storm setting up mid month over the C Plains.  

 

[Tom]

This, my friends, is a BIG deal....it's brewing and it's growing in the right places for our Continent to see the wrath of the Polar Vortex.  At this distance, I am making a LR call that there will be Thanksgiving week Shenanigans along with a "Festive Feel" in the air for the I-80 corridor.  I'm seeing something this morning that caught my eye.  #BSR

 

 

 

[westMJim]

The warm fall continues. Yesterday was a great November day, At Grand Rapids the official H/L was 65/40 there was no rain/snow fall and there was 65% of possible sunshine. With clear skies and a calm wind, the temperature dropped down to 36 for the overnight low here in MBY. So far the low at GRR looks to be 38. For today the average H/L is now down to 53/37. The record high of 77 was set in 1938 and the record low of 18 was set in 1951. The record snow fall of 1.5” was set in 1991. Last year the H/L was 44/34 there was a reported 0.01” of rain fall and a trace of snow fall.  highs/lows in the upper 60’s and lows in the upper 50 the next 3 days. While the highs will not be records but will be in the top 15 the low could see some record warms minimums.

 

[chescowxman]

Warm and dry weather will continue for the rest of the week. High temps will average almost 10 degrees above normal levels this week.

The record high for today is 82 degrees set in 1982. The record low is 20 degrees from 1923. The daily rain record is 1.72" from 2018.

[jaster220]

25 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS looking good with the system around the 10th/11th. Some areas in the N Plains/Upper MW might get smacked with that one.

Never overdone

[james1976]

Gut feeling is a hard cutter but if teleconnections play ball it could dig more.

[Niko]

Currently at 65F under deep blue skies and not a cloud to be found. I swear it feels like September. Temps next several days could be in the 70s. Its hard not to like this kind of weather at this time of the year. I'll take it and save the good stuff for December.

[Iceresistance]

@hawkstwelve, you got absolutely oofed on the 18z GFS 10 days out.

[jaster220]

Seems a bit rare to have 2 rather strong SLPs near each other like this:

[Hawkeye]

Today was fantastic.  Our high was 76º.  I was thinking it would be pretty windy this week, but today we only gusted in the 20s for a few hours.  The rest of the day it was just a light to moderate breeze.  It was very comfortable.

[Grizzcoat]

DSM local AFD for 3rd time in a row mentions snow chances SAT AM-- and this time in the headlines. Tis' the season!!

000
FXUS63 KDMX 030838
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
338 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Wednesday/
Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

Key messaging highlights:

* Warm again today. Windy south, especially in the morning.
* Prolonged period of moderate to heavy rains Fri into Sat
  morning.
* First snow of the season possible west Sat morning

While expectations for a prolonged moderate to at times heavy
rain event have not changed much since this time yesterday, one
change is that the first minor snow event of the year is becoming
increasingly possible across western Iowa Saturday morning.

 

Things get more interesting by Saturday morning however. While
the rainfall intensity will diminish, recent model trends have
suggested a deeper system with a more mature surface reflection
and deformation zone development, which will continue to drive
lighter precip over the area into at least Saturday morning. As
the column cools near the core of the low, deterministic and
ensemble solutions suggest that the precip type could very well
just flip from a cold rain to snow west Saturday morning in the
deformation zone. While warm pavement temps should keep any
accumulation mainly on vegetation and cooler surfaces, there could
be a quick minor snow accum up to an inch or so on vegetation before
the system exits and skies clear into midday.

[Tom]

Indian Summer Wx kicked into high gear over MN/WI yesterday...enjoy it bc the mid month Flip is looking legit...

 

 

 

[westMJim]

What a great world series game last night. At first, I was not happy that Cristian Javier was pulled from the game while throwing a no hitter, but I understand why. And it was fun watching history being made. Now on the great November weather we are having. Her at Grand Rapids the official H/L yesterday was 67/38 there was no rain fall and 100% of possible sunshine. It is not often that we get 100% sunshine in November. The overnight low here in MBY was 42 and the current reading is 43 with clear skies. For today the record high at Grand Rapids is 76 in 1938 and 2015 the record low of 17 was set in 1951 and the record snow fall of 10.4” that is right 10.4” was set in 1991.

Today will be yet another very warm and sunny November day. Even with a expected strong storms system on Saturday the weather will stay warm for next week.

 

[westMJim]

37 minutes ago, Tom said:

Indian Summer Wx kicked into high gear over MN/WI yesterday

While not in the 70's here in west Michigan yesterday was non less a very nice day. And today looks to be a repeat.

[Clinton]

Warm and windy day before the rain moves in tomorrow afternoon. 

[Niko]

This beautiful Indian Summer continues for at least another week. Other than patchy dense fog in the morning, its absolutely beautiful. It might get a lot colder starting next weekend. Also, trees here are about 90% bare now.

[jaster220]

28 minutes ago, Niko said:

This beautiful Indian Summer continues for at least another week. Other than patchy dense fog in the morning, its absolutely beautiful. It might get a lot colder starting next weekend. Also, trees here are about 90% bare now.

Horrid FOG again this morning on the west side. Missed my routine turn it was so bad. Not sure what if anything this portends for winter but I'd think it's a bit unusual for the burbs of any major metro region.

[Niko]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Horrid FOG again this morning on the west side. Missed my routine turn it was so bad. Not sure what if anything this portends for winter but I'd think it's a bit unusual for the burbs of any major metro region.

Crazy Crazy fog.  Thanks to lake Erie, and that easterly flow, seems like every morning it has been foggy now. 

Who knows, maybe the calm b4 the harsh winter arrives??? 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Horrid FOG again this morning on the west side. Missed my routine turn it was so bad. Not sure what if anything this portends for winter but I'd think it's a bit unusual for the burbs of any major metro region.

I remember someone posted a few times on here the correlation is a good thing when you see Fog in the Autumn.  I forget what the time correlation is but I've seen you guys in the lower lakes have seen a lot of Fog this season.  

[Bellona]

42 minutes ago, Tom said:

I remember someone posted a few times on here the correlation is a good thing when you see Fog in the Autumn.  I forget what the time correlation is but I've seen you guys in the lower lakes have seen a lot of Fog this season.  

I believe from what I can remember, fog in the autumn, 90ish days later a large snowstorm. Not sure how accurate that is. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Cold front on the way. 

[NWbyNW]

Looks gusty out St. Louis way.

 

[OKwx2k4]

Wind is here and appears the cold is creeping into the panhandle of OK.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro has a C.PLains crusher in the day 8ish range....

[Clinton]

5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Euro has a C.PLains crusher in the day 8ish range....

The control matches the operational but the ensembles are mostly further north and don't develop a southern low.  It will be fun to watch this weekend because the last few storms have developed like this run of the Euro is showing and the Canadian is similar to the Euro.  I-35 corridor and points east have been a hotspot for precip lately.

 

[Tom]

It's official, I had to turn on the Furnace out here for the 1st time this season.  Winter has arrived in the state of Arizona as the mountain tops were blanketed with about 3-6" of Snow.  Temps held mostly in the 50's all day yesterday and my Dad took a video of what looked like graupel or hail hitting the window.  This happened right after the CF swept through and a band of post-frontal showers developed.  It's been an eventful past couple days around here.

Not gonna lie, its a bit chilly for my blood as temps have dropped to 41F and there are some upper 30's showing up nearby.  Looking forward to the sunshine today and warmer temps this weekend!

 

[westMJim]

Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 71/48 that 71 the high was also 71 at Lansing. Both locations had the 9^th warmest November 9^th on record. The high of 71 at Holland was the 7^th warmest on record. Now for Muskegon their high of 70 tied the record with 2015 and 1903. There was no rain fall at Grand Rapids yesterday and 94% of possible sunshine. The official overnight low and the low for the day so far at Grand Rapids is 57 if it stays above 55  until midnight that will be a new record warmest minimum for any November 4^th . The average H/L for today is 52/36 the record high of 75 was set in 2015 and the record low of 16 was set in 1951. The record snow fall is 5.8” in 1951. Last year the H/L was 47/33.

 

[Tom]

A new month, A new pattern....Love seeing the bountiful precip across our Nation!  Giddy up....Good Times coming!  California Dreaming...boy, that PAC Jet is going to pound the West.

 

[chescowxman]

Dry and unseasonably warm weather should continue through Monday. Then we slip back toward normal by Election Day.

The record high for today is 80 degrees from 1974. Our record low was 21 degrees from 1952. The daily rainfall record is 1.81" set in 1947.

[Clinton]

The MJO is on the move through the cold phases of 7 and 8, then it will head into the null phase.  What happens after that will be huge as we go into Thanksgiving weekend.

The JMA is indicating a possible move into phase 5 while the GFS and Euro show a move into the Winter killer phase 6.

Good news with the Euro Ext is it quickly moves back into phase 7 before the end of the month.

GFS Ext is even better.  It's good to see the MJO playing in the cold phases

[james1976]

12z GFS has the Vets Day (my bday) snow event for IA and MN.

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, james1976 said:

12z GFS has the Vets Day (my bday) snow event for IA and MN.

Canadian is south and would be crazy nice for everyone, even in SMI with LES events.  

[Clinton]

12z Euro big on Vetrans Day Storm

[Clinton]

11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Uhh.... Ok, who do I have to pay to have this come true? Holy crap!

I thought about firing up a thread on this one but the models and ensembles are all over the place.  Someone between Canada and Mexico will get hit lol. Euro Control agrees with the operational though. Looks like this one could head your way.

[Niko]

Another mild day today, but big changes coming next weekend. Colder air will be moving in. Nothing too extreme, but definitely BN tempwise.

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Latest NBM, which is normally on the conservative side of projections, is looking fairly decent for the Veteran's Day storm.

If this verifies, I'm pretty sure I kicked a 70 yard field goal with my comment about 2-4 day modeling earlier this week.

Getting pretty real now, yeah. 

I LOVE it. 

[westMJim]

 

 

 

The current temperature here in MBY and officially at GRR is 67. That already will make today the 6^th warmest ever for any November 5^th

[Tom]

ORD set a new Record Low min temp yesterday of 61F.  High Wind warnings issued for NE IL and parts of C IL with gusts that may approach 65mph!  This is quite the system as the lower lakes region is under the "belly of the beast"...well, a "mini" beast that'll deepen into the upper 980's mb.

[westMJim]

First off today looks to have a chance of some very high wind gusts so be careful of that. The high for today has already been reached and it was 67 thus making today the 5 warmest November 5^th at Grand Rapids. The official H/L at Grand Rapids for yesterday was 68/57. The low of 57 set a new record for the warmest minimum for the date and the high of 68 is the 8^th warmest for the date. There was 0.11” of rain fall before midnight no sunshine was recorded. Here in MBY 0.17” of rain was recorded. At the current time it is 61 here in MBY. For today the average H/L is 52/36 the record high of 75 was recorded in 1978 and the low was 6 in 1951. The record snow fall amount was 2.6” in 1982. Last year the H/L was 52/33.

 

[Tom]

It appears the Strat technique will come into fruition and the Nation will see the coldest temps of the season bleed into most of the Lower 48 a bit quicker than my original call.  Needless to say, it's going to get cold and the winter storm I have had on my calendar mid-month starting to show up for our members across the Plains.

 

0z EPS...this animation will showcase one of the biggest signals that the "Alaskan Ridge" will be a common Theme for this year's LRC.  The beauty of the PAC Jet cutting underneath the expansive W NAMER ridge will also be a well known player.  As far as the LRC setting up, we may be entering a period of a "Split Flow" pattern post Veteran's Day and activating the STJ once again.  Furthermore, I'm not quite sure if this is a harmonic part of the LRC or if is repeating itself, but these maps are very similar to how OCT opened up.  It's a bit to early for me to know for sure but I'm seeing some interesting repetitive characteristics to these maps.  All the global models are showing signs the PNA is flipping + by mid month and tanking the EPO.  Cross Polar Flow???  Yup.  The return of the "Hudson Bay Vortex".

 

 

I'll end this post with this 10mb STRAT animation...no doubt, we will see a continuation of the NW NAMER Ridge through Thanksgiving week.  Buckle Up!  Bundle Up!

 

[jaster220]

29 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not the best of trends on the 06z GFS and 00z Euro. Both phased the lows together too quickly, leaving hardly any snow south of North Dakota. Also looks like the 00z EPS and 06z GEFS are starting to agree on the phased approach, with fewer members maintaining the southern low.

Still plenty of time for things to change again but at the moment it's not looking super promising.

It's early in the season. Models will jump on ideal conclusions that rarely play out. You've been at this a while. You should know that models have improved in the shorter term. Keeps NWS offices from complete whiff busts like in years past (tho there was that event in 2018 or 2019 when GRR issued a WSWarning for nada). A decade back the models would give hints of a storm coming together in the 240h range and slowly come into focus during the ensuing 5 days (see GHD-2 for example). Now, they want to paint the entire picture from that 240h range. It's very deceiving and almost "click bait" behavior for those of us hoping to snag a nice storm. The flashing of big storms by the models has become loathsome in recent years taking a lot of the fun out of model following. Probably why I do so much less of it then I used to. Ofc, it also doesn't help that most storms over the last two winters have found a way to shaft mby.

[Clinton]

56 minutes ago, Tom said:

It appears the Strat technique will come into fruition and the Nation will see the coldest temps of the season bleed into most of the Lower 48 a bit quicker than my original call.  Needless to say, it's going to get cold and the winter storm I have had on my calendar mid-month starting to show up for our members across the Plains.

 

0z EPS...this animation will showcase one of the biggest signals that the "Alaskan Ridge" will be a common Theme for this year's LRC.  The beauty of the PAC Jet cutting underneath the expansive W NAMER ridge will also be a well known player.  As far as the LRC setting up, we may be entering a period of a "Split Flow" pattern post Veteran's Day and activating the STJ once again.  Furthermore, I'm not quite sure if this is a harmonic part of the LRC or if is repeating itself, but these maps are very similar to how OCT opened up.  It's a bit to early for me to know for sure but I'm seeing some interesting repetitive characteristics to these maps.  All the global models are showing signs the PNA is flipping + by mid month and tanking the EPO.  Cross Polar Flow???  Yup.  The return of the "Hudson Bay Vortex".

 

 

I'll end this post with this 10mb STRAT animation...no doubt, we will see a continuation of the NW NAMER Ridge through Thanksgiving week.  Buckle Up!  Bundle Up!

 

I'll be looking for that big Minnesota low showing up to mark the beginning of cycle 2.  Gary always says that the last week of Oct and the first week of Nov are the most important part of the LRC setup.  I'm not sure why that is, could be harmonics maybe one of the KC guys can help.  

[chescowxman]

Dry and very mild weekend on tap across Chester County and the Philadelphia area - highs should reach the 70's both days. Cold front crosses the region later Monday with temps dropping back to normal levels with high temps in the mid-50's.

The record high for today is 78 degrees set in 1975. The record low is 21 degrees from 1949. The daily rain record is 1.56" set way back in 1896.

[chescowxman]

Today's high here in the Philly burbs of Chester County was 75.1. This was the warmest day since September 21st. We only saw one day over 70 degrees during the entire month of October. The record high minimum record for overnight tonight is 62.5 set back in 2015. We may be close to that warm record tonight! Go Phillies!!

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Oh yeah. Models giveth just as easily as models taketh away. 

Not sure how often you visit the PNW side of the forum but the model analysis I'm doing here pales in comparison to the model riding I used to do in that thread. We live and die by what the model runs show every 4 hours. It's entirely unhealthy and has lead to multiple member mental breakdowns when the rug inevitably gets pulled and the winter storm we've been tracking since hour 360 turns into cold rain event 48 hours out. 

I've actually found that since moving to this side of the forum and the complete lack of that style of model riding over here that I've developed a much healthier relationship with the forecasting models. I think a part of it stems from not being completely depressed if a winter storm doesn't work out because I know chances are high there will be another. The same can't be said for the PNW. One lost winter storm might mean you don't see any snow that season. Makes tracking things much more enjoyable.

Glad to hear you're at least trying to preserve your sanity wrt the LR model mayhem. I am also. Where it gets really nasty is on occasion (two come to mind) the Euro has had 3-4 consecutive runs blasting my region with 2-3 ft of snow, only to pull the rug in the end. And I'm talking within the 120h rule where the models should have a fairly good clue. It happened most recently in Dec '20. 

Your new locale can be feast or famine (its The Plains, right?). But I've seen that area score some good storms and winters in the last 2 decades. Unlike here, cold source is never a concern in season, mostly lack of getting moisture to reach you. It's the absolute opposite for my new area. Having stout cold with staying power is the #1 challenge here in Wayne Cnty metro. 

[westMJim]

While it did get windy here it was not anything really significant. Total rain fall since 7 AM here in my yard was 0.16" The high here was 67 and at the current time it is now down to 53.

[jaster220]

17 minutes ago, westMJim said:

While it did get windy here it was not anything really significant. Total rain fall since 7 AM here in my yard was 0.16" The high here was 67 and at the current time it is now down to 53.

I get genuinely interesting wx here at my new place so seldom, I just consider it a big deal now when I see anything of interest. Nice to see lots of leaves blowing around. Got windows cracked and a strong gust just made that howling sound - pretty cool. The house I grew up in was made of unique bricks that were broke, not molded so they had a lot of jagged edges. You'd hear a lot of screaming howls and whistles in a good windstorm and I remember many many back in the golden era of GL's wx. With my windows open, the brief squall line was very loud too about an hour ago.