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November 2022 Observations and Discussion


Clinton

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Gotta look for clues other than the standard models because they are so volatile this time of year with anything over 5 days out.    It could be 70 next week or 35 and the next week, and the next week.     Tough to lock down anything this time of year.  

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Here is the November outlook.

 

https://s.w-x.co/promo_wsi_nov_1029.jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

This is going to age poorly

Tbh, I prefer to have a mild November and get December in cold and snowy. A cold November, leading to a mild December seems to have been the theme lately. Time for a change this year. I like the odds.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Such a gorgeous evening tanite. Feels like late September. Next several days will feature 60s and a couple of 70s. No real cold air in sight, until maybe late next week. That would be near average or slightly below. Also, we desperately need rain  here in S MI, but no big rains are in stored at all. In fact, any rainfall we do get, will be very minimal.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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11 hours ago, westMJim said:

Welcome to November! The last day of October was another mild day here in west Michigan. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 59/49 there was officially 0.09” of rain fall and yesterday had 0% of possible sunshine. Here in MBY I recorded 0.02” of rain fall after 7 AM yesterday. The overnight low here in MBY fell to 44 before rising to the current temperature of 51. The official low looks to have been 50 at GRR. For today the average H/L is 54/37 the record high is 81 set in 1950. That is the latest high of 80 or better at GRR so far. So it is safe to say we should not see 80 or better until at least March and more likely than not April or May. The record low of 21 was set in 1976.  The record snow fall of 4.0” fell in 1912. Last year the H/L was 47/36.

Looking back at October for Grand Rapids the mean of 50.6 was a departure of -0.9 the average H/L for the month was 61.8/39.5. The high for the month was 77 on the 24th there were 9 days of 70 or better. The low for the month was 29 on the 27th there were 3 nights of low of 32 or lower. There was 3.74” of rain fall that is below the average of 4.02” there was a trace of snow fall and that is below the average of 0.3”

DTW ended October normal on temp (+0.1F), and with this last event of 0.48" qpf the monthly total was a paltry 1.06" which is -1.47" from normal. You've been so moist vs SEMI

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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What way to open up the 1st week of NOV for our folks out west...my goodness, isn't this just what the doctor ordered?  I'd love to be in Truckee or Tahoe for this multi-day event.  FEET of Snow are expected to wallop the West...

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There are a couple storm systems brewing up for the 1st Full week of NOV...Election Day Upper MW Blitz???  Pre-Veteran's Day GL's Cutter??  Both systems are intriguing as they will likely spark severe wx somewhere over the Heartland but more importantly, as a winter wx enthusiast, you gotta love the expansive snow shield that the 0z EPS is suggesting to build in S Canada and the northern Lower 48.  IMHO, this is what we need to set up NOW rather than later when the cold eventually does come down south.

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I wanted to post the EPS run yesterday but waited till today's 0z EPS and there are notable changes in the North American 500mb pattern.  The Arctic Air bottled up in W Canada appears it will break the dam and unload into the Plains Week 2.  Giddy up...I think we have ourselves the 1st potential Winter Storm setting up mid month over the C Plains.  

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This, my friends, is a BIG deal....it's brewing and it's growing in the right places for our Continent to see the wrath of the Polar Vortex.  At this distance, I am making a LR call that there will be Thanksgiving week Shenanigans along with a "Festive Feel" in the air for the I-80 corridor.  I'm seeing something this morning that caught my eye.  #BSR

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The warm fall continues. Yesterday was a great November day, At Grand Rapids the official H/L was 65/40 there was no rain/snow fall and there was 65% of possible sunshine. With clear skies and a calm wind, the temperature dropped down to 36 for the overnight low here in MBY. So far the low at GRR looks to be 38. For today the average H/L is now down to 53/37. The record high of 77 was set in 1938 and the record low of 18 was set in 1951. The record snow fall of 1.5” was set in 1991. Last year the H/L was 44/34 there was a reported 0.01” of rain fall and a trace of snow fall.  highs/lows in the upper 60’s and lows in the upper 50 the next 3 days. While the highs will not be records but will be in the top 15 the low could see some record warms minimums.

 

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Warm and dry weather will continue for the rest of the week. High temps will average almost 10 degrees above normal levels this week.
The record high for today is 82 degrees set in 1982. The record low is 20 degrees from 1923. The daily rain record is 1.72" from 2018.
image.png.aa396d11832d5dbf91848b237f068e67.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  We analyze only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find on NOAA/NCEI there have been absolutely no post observation computer adjustments to massage the data . All data here represents the actual data validated by the NWS from trained observers, stations and spotters since 1893.  

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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25 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS looking good with the system around the 10th/11th. Some areas in the N Plains/Upper MW might get smacked with that one.

gfs-deterministic-central-total_snow_kuchera-8189600.png

Never overdone

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Currently at 65F under deep blue skies and not a cloud to be found. I swear it feels like September. Temps next several days could be in the 70s. Its hard not to like this kind of weather at this time of the year. I'll take it and save the good stuff for December. 😉

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Seems a bit rare to have 2 rather strong SLPs near each other like this:

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Today was fantastic.  Our high was 76º.  I was thinking it would be pretty windy this week, but today we only gusted in the 20s for a few hours.  The rest of the day it was just a light to moderate breeze.  It was very comfortable.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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DSM local AFD for 3rd time in a row mentions snow chances SAT AM-- and this time in the headlines. Tis' the season!!

000
FXUS63 KDMX 030838
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
338 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Wednesday/
Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

Key messaging highlights:

* Warm again today. Windy south, especially in the morning.
* Prolonged period of moderate to heavy rains Fri into Sat
  morning.
* First snow of the season possible west Sat morning

While expectations for a prolonged moderate to at times heavy
rain event have not changed much since this time yesterday, one
change is that the first minor snow event of the year is becoming
increasingly possible across western Iowa Saturday morning.

 

Things get more interesting by Saturday morning however. While
the rainfall intensity will diminish, recent model trends have
suggested a deeper system with a more mature surface reflection
and deformation zone development, which will continue to drive
lighter precip over the area into at least Saturday morning. As
the column cools near the core of the low, deterministic and
ensemble solutions suggest that the precip type could very well
just flip from a cold rain to snow west Saturday morning in the
deformation zone. While warm pavement temps should keep any
accumulation mainly on vegetation and cooler surfaces, there could
be a quick minor snow accum up to an inch or so on vegetation before
the system exits and skies clear into midday.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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What a great world series game last night. At first, I was not happy that Cristian Javier was pulled from the game while throwing a no hitter, but I understand why. And it was fun watching history being made. Now on the great November weather we are having. Her at Grand Rapids the official H/L yesterday was 67/38 there was no rain fall and 100% of possible sunshine. It is not often that we get 100% sunshine in November. The overnight low here in MBY was 42 and the current reading is 43 with clear skies. For today the record high at Grand Rapids is 76 in 1938 and 2015 the record low of 17 was set in 1951 and the record snow fall of 10.4” that is right 10.4” was set in 1991.

Today will be yet another very warm and sunny November day. Even with a expected strong storms system on Saturday the weather will stay warm for next week.

 

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This beautiful Indian Summer continues for at least another week. Other than patchy dense fog in the morning, its absolutely beautiful. It might get a lot colder starting next weekend. Also, trees here are about 90% bare now.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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28 minutes ago, Niko said:

This beautiful Indian Summer continues for at least another week. Other than patchy dense fog in the morning, its absolutely beautiful. It might get a lot colder starting next weekend. Also, trees here are about 90% bare now.

Horrid FOG again this morning on the west side. Missed my routine turn it was so bad. Not sure what if anything this portends for winter but I'd think it's a bit unusual for the burbs of any major metro region.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Horrid FOG again this morning on the west side. Missed my routine turn it was so bad. Not sure what if anything this portends for winter but I'd think it's a bit unusual for the burbs of any major metro region.

Crazy Crazy fog.  Thanks to lake Erie, and that easterly flow, seems like every morning it has been foggy now. 

Who knows, maybe the calm b4 the harsh winter arrives??? 😃

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Horrid FOG again this morning on the west side. Missed my routine turn it was so bad. Not sure what if anything this portends for winter but I'd think it's a bit unusual for the burbs of any major metro region.

I remember someone posted a few times on here the correlation is a good thing when you see Fog in the Autumn.  I forget what the time correlation is but I've seen you guys in the lower lakes have seen a lot of Fog this season.  

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42 minutes ago, Tom said:

I remember someone posted a few times on here the correlation is a good thing when you see Fog in the Autumn.  I forget what the time correlation is but I've seen you guys in the lower lakes have seen a lot of Fog this season.  

I believe from what I can remember, fog in the autumn, 90ish days later a large snowstorm. Not sure how accurate that is. 

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5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Euro has a C.PLains crusher in the day 8ish range....

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

The control matches the operational but the ensembles are mostly further north and don't develop a southern low.  It will be fun to watch this weekend because the last few storms have developed like this run of the Euro is showing and the Canadian is similar to the Euro.  I-35 corridor and points east have been a hotspot for precip lately.

 1668362400-pnqSkCykpl0.png

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It's official, I had to turn on the Furnace out here for the 1st time this season.  Winter has arrived in the state of Arizona as the mountain tops were blanketed with about 3-6" of Snow.  Temps held mostly in the 50's all day yesterday and my Dad took a video of what looked like graupel or hail hitting the window.  This happened right after the CF swept through and a band of post-frontal showers developed.  It's been an eventful past couple days around here.

Not gonna lie, its a bit chilly for my blood as temps have dropped to 41F and there are some upper 30's showing up nearby.  Looking forward to the sunshine today and warmer temps this weekend!

 

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Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 71/48 that 71 the high was also 71 at Lansing. Both locations had the 9th warmest November 9th on record. The high of 71 at Holland was the 7th warmest on record. Now for Muskegon their high of 70 tied the record with 2015 and 1903. There was no rain fall at Grand Rapids yesterday and 94% of possible sunshine. The official overnight low and the low for the day so far at Grand Rapids is 57 if it stays above 55  until midnight that will be a new record warmest minimum for any November 4th . The average H/L for today is 52/36 the record high of 75 was set in 2015 and the record low of 16 was set in 1951. The record snow fall is 5.8” in 1951. Last year the H/L was 47/33.

 

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