November 2022 Observations and Discussion

[chescowxman]

0.15" of rain since last night. October finished as our 2nd straight below normal temperature month with an average temperature of 52.0 which is 2.1 degrees below normal. This is out 2nd consecutive below normal month and the 5th such month across the first 10 months of 2022. This October is also the chilliest October since 2008. Of note that is the last time the Phillies won the World Series...just saying!

The record high for today is 84 degrees from 1950. The record low is 22 degrees from 1928. The daily rainfall record is 2.78" from 1956.

[Tom]

EPS Weeklies from yesterday still advertising a pretty robust Flip towards a colder/wintry look for our Sub and pointes East come Thanksgiving week.  Personally speaking, I think it'll come a tad earlier and IF, Big IF, the -NAO block can lock it'll pave the way for a sustained period of Winter's early onslaught.  The GL's should fire back up and with the current warm spell and predicted warmth the next week or so, the waters will still run AN to add fuel for the LES that's coming down the road.

 

 

If Mother Nature can lay down the foundation like the 0z EPS is advertising, then I'll be more inclined to believe the Home Brewed cold will have no problem coming down into the Lower 48 mid month.  The  script is being written...

 

 

 

The next 30 days...Best signal I've seen off the Euro Weeklies this early in the season...very very consistent.  Let's see how this all unfolds.

[Tom]

I have a client that lives down in eastern TN and was sent this Wooly Bear Catipillar...

 

 

Here's what it could mean....warm start and Harsh finish for the East???  Interesting to see if nature's signs will align.

[hawkstwelve]

Latest GEFS was a nice improvement on the high/lows post-8th or so.

Also had the highest mean snowfall of any GEFS run so far.

[tStacsh]

Gotta look for clues other than the standard models because they are so volatile this time of year with anything over 5 days out.    It could be 70 next week or 35 and the next week, and the next week.     Tough to lock down anything this time of year.  

[Niko]

Here is the November outlook.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Sioux Falls has reached 79, resoundingly beating the record high of 73 set in 1938.

If the ensembles are anything to go by, this is probably our last 70+ of the season.

[Iceresistance]

19 minutes ago, Niko said:

Here is the November outlook.

 

This is going to age poorly

[Niko]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

This is going to age poorly

Tbh, I prefer to have a mild November and get December in cold and snowy. A cold November, leading to a mild December seems to have been the theme lately. Time for a change this year. I like the odds.

[Clinton]

@hawkstwelve this one should have enough cold air for ya.  Just need to nudge it south just a little.

[Niko]

Such a gorgeous evening tanite. Feels like late September. Next several days will feature 60s and a couple of 70s. No real cold air in sight, until maybe late next week. That would be near average or slightly below. Also, we desperately need rain  here in S MI, but no big rains are in stored at all. In fact, any rainfall we do get, will be very minimal.

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, westMJim said:

Welcome to November! The last day of October was another mild day here in west Michigan. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 59/49 there was officially 0.09” of rain fall and yesterday had 0% of possible sunshine. Here in MBY I recorded 0.02” of rain fall after 7 AM yesterday. The overnight low here in MBY fell to 44 before rising to the current temperature of 51. The official low looks to have been 50 at GRR. For today the average H/L is 54/37 the record high is 81 set in 1950. That is the latest high of 80 or better at GRR so far. So it is safe to say we should not see 80 or better until at least March and more likely than not April or May. The record low of 21 was set in 1976.  The record snow fall of 4.0” fell in 1912. Last year the H/L was 47/36.

Looking back at October for Grand Rapids the mean of 50.6 was a departure of -0.9 the average H/L for the month was 61.8/39.5. The high for the month was 77 on the 24^th there were 9 days of 70 or better. The low for the month was 29 on the 27^th there were 3 nights of low of 32 or lower. There was 3.74” of rain fall that is below the average of 4.02” there was a trace of snow fall and that is below the average of 0.3”

DTW ended October normal on temp (+0.1F), and with this last event of 0.48" qpf the monthly total was a paltry 1.06" which is -1.47" from normal. You've been so moist vs SEMI

[Clinton]

Dang KC got warm today, I had a high of 75.

US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri

3 hours ago

At 3PM it is 80 degrees in KC...that is only the 19th time on the 135-year record that 80 degrees been reached on any day in the month of November!
#BalmyKC

[hawkstwelve]

It's November 1st and I'm sitting out on the back deck in shorts and a sweatshirt. 

While I'm ready for the cold and snow, it's hard to complain about this.

[Clinton]

CPC is cooling it off for week 2

[james1976]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

@hawkstwelve this one should have enough cold air for ya.  Just need to nudge it south just a little.

8" here at the MN home just in time for my bday. Bring it! Haha

[Mr Marine Layer]

Time and Date

11/1/2022 8:06:44 PM

Solar Declination

14.71 S

Equation of Time

16.48

Minutes for Solar Declination to change by .01

45.46

Minutes for Equation of Time to change by .01

849.82

[Mr Marine Layer]

[Tom]

What way to open up the 1st week of NOV for our folks out west...my goodness, isn't this just what the doctor ordered?  I'd love to be in Truckee or Tahoe for this multi-day event.  FEET of Snow are expected to wallop the West...

 

 

[Tom]

There are a couple storm systems brewing up for the 1st Full week of NOV...Election Day Upper MW Blitz???  Pre-Veteran's Day GL's Cutter??  Both systems are intriguing as they will likely spark severe wx somewhere over the Heartland but more importantly, as a winter wx enthusiast, you gotta love the expansive snow shield that the 0z EPS is suggesting to build in S Canada and the northern Lower 48.  IMHO, this is what we need to set up NOW rather than later when the cold eventually does come down south.

 

I wanted to post the EPS run yesterday but waited till today's 0z EPS and there are notable changes in the North American 500mb pattern.  The Arctic Air bottled up in W Canada appears it will break the dam and unload into the Plains Week 2.  Giddy up...I think we have ourselves the 1st potential Winter Storm setting up mid month over the C Plains.  

 

[Tom]

This, my friends, is a BIG deal....it's brewing and it's growing in the right places for our Continent to see the wrath of the Polar Vortex.  At this distance, I am making a LR call that there will be Thanksgiving week Shenanigans along with a "Festive Feel" in the air for the I-80 corridor.  I'm seeing something this morning that caught my eye.  #BSR

 

 

 

[westMJim]

The warm fall continues. Yesterday was a great November day, At Grand Rapids the official H/L was 65/40 there was no rain/snow fall and there was 65% of possible sunshine. With clear skies and a calm wind, the temperature dropped down to 36 for the overnight low here in MBY. So far the low at GRR looks to be 38. For today the average H/L is now down to 53/37. The record high of 77 was set in 1938 and the record low of 18 was set in 1951. The record snow fall of 1.5” was set in 1991. Last year the H/L was 44/34 there was a reported 0.01” of rain fall and a trace of snow fall.  highs/lows in the upper 60’s and lows in the upper 50 the next 3 days. While the highs will not be records but will be in the top 15 the low could see some record warms minimums.

 

[chescowxman]

Warm and dry weather will continue for the rest of the week. High temps will average almost 10 degrees above normal levels this week.

The record high for today is 82 degrees set in 1982. The record low is 20 degrees from 1923. The daily rain record is 1.72" from 2018.

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS looking good with the system around the 10th/11th. Some areas in the N Plains/Upper MW might get smacked with that one.

[hawkstwelve]

12z GEM is showing decent freezing rain accumulations with that same storm. Yuck, no thanks.

It will be very interesting to see how this potential early winter storm shapes up.

[jaster220]

25 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS looking good with the system around the 10th/11th. Some areas in the N Plains/Upper MW might get smacked with that one.

Never overdone

[james1976]

Gut feeling is a hard cutter but if teleconnections play ball it could dig more.

[Niko]

Currently at 65F under deep blue skies and not a cloud to be found. I swear it feels like September. Temps next several days could be in the 70s. Its hard not to like this kind of weather at this time of the year. I'll take it and save the good stuff for December.

[hawkstwelve]

First time I've seen the 's' word in the official forecast so far this season!

[Iceresistance]

@hawkstwelve, you got absolutely oofed on the 18z GFS 10 days out.

[hawkstwelve]

Nice improvement in mean snowfall on the Canadian ensemble.

[hawkstwelve]

2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

@hawkstwelve, you got absolutely oofed on the 18z GFS 10 days out.

Yeah that storm around the 10th is showing some teeth, at least at this point. Crossing my fingers it works out.

18z GFS also shows a situation I've been keeping my eye on for this Friday PM/Saturday AM. Some models have wanted to drop 1-3 inches in a small area on the SW backside of the low as it moves into the GL region. Sometimes it's shown to be nearby SE SD, sometimes it stays over IA, sometimes it's not there at all. 

In both above events, nice to finally have some potential winter weather to track! 

[jaster220]

Seems a bit rare to have 2 rather strong SLPs near each other like this:

[hawkstwelve]

Latest EPS remains consistent in dropping temps into the mid 30s around the 10th and for a while thereafter, which would be roughly 10 degrees below normal. GEFS agrees for the most part, Canadian ensemble even moreso. In fact, those Canadian temps are fairly impressive considering it's a mean.

Overall pretty good agreement among the ensemble suite. Could we see a slightly prolonged mid-month cold snap?

[Hawkeye]

Today was fantastic.  Our high was 76º.  I was thinking it would be pretty windy this week, but today we only gusted in the 20s for a few hours.  The rest of the day it was just a light to moderate breeze.  It was very comfortable.

[hawkstwelve]

Western IA and Omaha areas get hit with that backside snow into Saturday AM on the 00z GFS.

[hawkstwelve]

00z GEFS has a 40-50% chance of > 3 inches falling near Sioux City. Larger odds for > 1 inch over the area with some 60-70% over NE.

[Grizzcoat]

DSM local AFD for 3rd time in a row mentions snow chances SAT AM-- and this time in the headlines. Tis' the season!!

000
FXUS63 KDMX 030838
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
338 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Wednesday/
Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

Key messaging highlights:

* Warm again today. Windy south, especially in the morning.
* Prolonged period of moderate to heavy rains Fri into Sat
  morning.
* First snow of the season possible west Sat morning

While expectations for a prolonged moderate to at times heavy
rain event have not changed much since this time yesterday, one
change is that the first minor snow event of the year is becoming
increasingly possible across western Iowa Saturday morning.

 

Things get more interesting by Saturday morning however. While
the rainfall intensity will diminish, recent model trends have
suggested a deeper system with a more mature surface reflection
and deformation zone development, which will continue to drive
lighter precip over the area into at least Saturday morning. As
the column cools near the core of the low, deterministic and
ensemble solutions suggest that the precip type could very well
just flip from a cold rain to snow west Saturday morning in the
deformation zone. While warm pavement temps should keep any
accumulation mainly on vegetation and cooler surfaces, there could
be a quick minor snow accum up to an inch or so on vegetation before
the system exits and skies clear into midday.

[Tom]

Indian Summer Wx kicked into high gear over MN/WI yesterday...enjoy it bc the mid month Flip is looking legit...

 

 

 

[westMJim]

What a great world series game last night. At first, I was not happy that Cristian Javier was pulled from the game while throwing a no hitter, but I understand why. And it was fun watching history being made. Now on the great November weather we are having. Her at Grand Rapids the official H/L yesterday was 67/38 there was no rain fall and 100% of possible sunshine. It is not often that we get 100% sunshine in November. The overnight low here in MBY was 42 and the current reading is 43 with clear skies. For today the record high at Grand Rapids is 76 in 1938 and 2015 the record low of 17 was set in 1951 and the record snow fall of 10.4” that is right 10.4” was set in 1991.

Today will be yet another very warm and sunny November day. Even with a expected strong storms system on Saturday the weather will stay warm for next week.

 

[westMJim]

37 minutes ago, Tom said:

Indian Summer Wx kicked into high gear over MN/WI yesterday

While not in the 70's here in west Michigan yesterday was non less a very nice day. And today looks to be a repeat.

[Clinton]

Warm and windy day before the rain moves in tomorrow afternoon. 

[Niko]

This beautiful Indian Summer continues for at least another week. Other than patchy dense fog in the morning, its absolutely beautiful. It might get a lot colder starting next weekend. Also, trees here are about 90% bare now.

[jaster220]

28 minutes ago, Niko said:

This beautiful Indian Summer continues for at least another week. Other than patchy dense fog in the morning, its absolutely beautiful. It might get a lot colder starting next weekend. Also, trees here are about 90% bare now.

Horrid FOG again this morning on the west side. Missed my routine turn it was so bad. Not sure what if anything this portends for winter but I'd think it's a bit unusual for the burbs of any major metro region.

[Niko]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Horrid FOG again this morning on the west side. Missed my routine turn it was so bad. Not sure what if anything this portends for winter but I'd think it's a bit unusual for the burbs of any major metro region.

Crazy Crazy fog.  Thanks to lake Erie, and that easterly flow, seems like every morning it has been foggy now. 

Who knows, maybe the calm b4 the harsh winter arrives??? 

[hawkstwelve]

Oh well hello there, 12z GFS! 

[hawkstwelve]

From a high of 65 one day to a high of 23 the next. Seems legit.  

[Tom]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Horrid FOG again this morning on the west side. Missed my routine turn it was so bad. Not sure what if anything this portends for winter but I'd think it's a bit unusual for the burbs of any major metro region.

I remember someone posted a few times on here the correlation is a good thing when you see Fog in the Autumn.  I forget what the time correlation is but I've seen you guys in the lower lakes have seen a lot of Fog this season.  

[Bellona]

42 minutes ago, Tom said:

I remember someone posted a few times on here the correlation is a good thing when you see Fog in the Autumn.  I forget what the time correlation is but I've seen you guys in the lower lakes have seen a lot of Fog this season.  

I believe from what I can remember, fog in the autumn, 90ish days later a large snowstorm. Not sure how accurate that is. 

[Mr Marine Layer]

Cold front on the way.