November 2022 Observations and Discussion

[tStacsh]

Pretty sure everyone in the country will see snowflakes and accumulation before I do.  Long range looks boring and slightly below normal.  Then back to normal.  Normal November shaping up.  

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

@Niko INCOMING??  Could be a sweet surprise on tap.

 

What a NEG-tilted shortwave can do:

 

Special Weather Statement

---

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
931 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2022

INZ008-009-017-018-022>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-
025-121745-
Noble-De Kalb-Whitley-Allen IN-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
Including the cities of Kendallville, Ligonier, Albion, Auburn,
Garrett, Columbia City, Tri-Lakes, South Whitley, Fort Wayne,
New Haven, Logansport, Royal Center, Peru, Grissom AFB, Mexico,
Wabash, North Manchester, Huntington, Roanoke, Bluffton, Ossian,
Decatur, Berne, Marion, Gas City, Upland, Hartford City,
Montpelier, Portland, Dunkirk, Bryan, Edgerton, Wauseon,
Archbold, Swanton, Delta, Defiance, Sherwood, Hicksville,
Napoleon, Deshler, Liberty Center, Paulding, Antwerp, Payne,
Ottawa, Leipsic, Columbus Grove, Continental, Pandora, Van Wert,
Ohio City, Lima, and Spencerville
931 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2022

...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING...

Snow will move through this morning and will be heavy at times,
with snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour expected. This will result
in areas of slippery travel. Total accumulation of 1 to 2 inches
is expected. Motorists need to be alert for changing travel
conditions.

This area of snow has a history of reducing visibility to 1/2
mile and falling at a rate of 1 inch per hour. Numerous slide offs
have been reported in the greater Indianapolis area.

WOW! Good catch bud..didn't even see this coming. They were just calling for light snowshowers at best.

[jaster220]

52 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Pretty sure everyone in the country will see snowflakes and accumulation before I do.  Long range looks boring and slightly below normal.  Then back to normal.  Normal November shaping up.  

Your Nov snowfall climo is no doubt skewed positively due to being further north and historically large early-season LES outbreaks. Down in Marshall my Nov avg was like 1.5" iirc. Of the (3) times I had large snowstorms in Nov ('11, '15, '19) 2-1/2 of those seasons went on to be duds. I don't really want to see huge snows in Nov - its bad juju

[jaster220]

Wow.

"KDAY at 10am reporting heavy snow 1/16 mile visilbilty"

[jaster220]

UHI to the rescue (of those who hate snow)

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1015 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2022

.UPDATE...

FGEN forcing is working up into the southern forecast area, primarily
south of I-94 so far this morning with the northern extent forecast
into the I-94 to I-696 corridor into the afternoon. Temperatures have
climbed into the upper 30s, but intensity of the precipitation seems
decent enough on regional radar composite to support some snow or at
a minimum at least rain/snow mix as temperatures fluctuate between
say 36 and 40 depending on how heavy the rain/snow is at any given
time/location.

Will introduce some minor accumulation (grassy/elevated surfaces)
over the southern 4 counites with perhaps 1/2 an inch for parts of
Lenawee/Monroe and higher terrain of Washtenaw. Urban heat island of
Metro Detroit should limit this potential into Wayne county even as
modest precipitation rates spread in by midday. Will also knock one
or two degrees off of forecast high temperatures from I-94 south
where upper 30s seem likely to be more of the rule much of the day.

[jaster220]

Fwiw, nice to see..

Further SOUTH even more better:

[Hawkeye]

We got our first real flakes this morning as some light snow showers moved through the area.  I may have to record 0.1".

[jaster220]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

FSD has recorded three days so far this month with a trace of snow. We're also down to +3.8 on the month after hanging around +8 for the first week of November. Expecting that number to continue to tank through the next week.

Never thought we'd see the likes of this tbh. So Retro late 70's

 

[Iceresistance]

19 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looking like there is increasing probability of the northern plains warming up around Thanksgiving. Both the EPS and GEFS ensembles are showing this.

If I was to guess I'd say we warm up to around normal for a couple weeks and then we get cold again around the start of the 2nd week of December. 

One of the moderators on my other forum mentioned it as well, but he said the word "Moderation", which means that the temperatures will warm up back to "near normal". And then, another cold shot in DECEMBER!

[OmahaSnowFan]

First flakes of the season this morning with some flurries. Actually the same date as last year for first flakes too.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looking like there is increasing probability of the northern plains warming up around Thanksgiving. Both the EPS and GEFS ensembles are showing this.

If I was to guess I'd say we warm up to around normal for a couple weeks and then we get cold again around the start of the 2nd week of December. 

The MJO has been moving quickly and it will travel through phase 6 around the 20th and we will have to pay that toll.  Good news is that it looks to be headed to an amplified 7 before months end.  

[Iceresistance]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The MJO has been moving quickly and it will travel through phase 6 around the 20th and we will have to pay that toll.  Good news is that it looks to be headed to an amplified 7 before months end.  

The toll is "Moderated Temperatures", it's better than last year's November and December torch

[jaster220]

SNizzle has given way to moderate snow falling here in Canton. Not really sitting on much tho with temps warm. Good to see any precip it's been so scarce this autumn. 

Was 74F about 48 hrs ago

[Iceresistance]

Just now, jaster220 said:

SNizzle has given way to moderate snow falling here in Canton. Not really sitting on much tho with temps warm. Good to see any precip it's been so scarce this autumn

LOL! When there is more wind, I call it a "Flizzard!"

[Anti Marine Layer]

We had a SnowFan here this morning. Not the one from Omaha.

Anyway, it's time for the weather to get exciting.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

First flakes of the season this morning with some flurries. Actually the same date as last year for first flakes too.

What's the likelihood of that? 

[Anti Marine Layer]

11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

SNizzle has given way to moderate snow falling here in Canton. Not really sitting on much tho with temps warm. Good to see any precip it's been so scarce this autumn. 

Was 74F about 48 hrs ago

Big drop. Usually the kind of thing to cause severe weather. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The MJO has been moving quickly and it will travel through phase 6 around the 20th and we will have to pay that toll.  Good news is that it looks to be headed to an amplified 7 before months end.  

We need El Nino

[Niko]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

SNizzle has given way to moderate snow falling here in Canton. Not really sitting on much tho with temps warm. Good to see any precip it's been so scarce this autumn. 

Was 74F about 48 hrs ago

Here in Macomb, light snow w temps at 34F. Not sticking.

[james1976]

Low clouds with flurries all day at the MN home. Temp has been bouncing back n forth 27-28 all day. 

[Clinton]

Temps here never made it to the freezing mark, only had a high of 30 with clouds and flurries.  Normal high is 58 and the normal low is 35.

[Niko]

It snowed today in the Detroit Metro Area. A whopping 0.5" of snowfall fell. Here is a start to a good snowy winter.

[Andie]

Currently 35*
Dew 31
Humidity 88%

Slowly getting deeper cold air  Freeze shouldn’t be too far away.  

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

13 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

One of the moderators on my other forum mentioned it as well, but he said the word "Moderation", which means that the temperatures will warm up back to "near normal". And then, another cold shot in DECEMBER!

Came to write something in regards to this as well. This pattern doesn't have an end, honestly. Moderation to normal and then crash is correct. 

 

[OKwx2k4]

1 minute ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Came to write something in regards to this as well. This pattern doesn't have an end, honestly. Moderation to normal and then crash is correct. 

 

Adding....

The good news is that moderation brings moisture with it.

[Tom]

It was a wonderful Saturday here in the PHX valley as we enjoyed crystal clear blue skies and temps topped out in the low 70's (74F).  As much as I am enjoying these wonderful temps, I'm yearning for some Snow and Cold to get me in the Holiday spirit.  I took a gander at my local grid forecast back home and it looks more like a mid/late DEC forecast!  High temps won't get above freezing for several days if the forecast holds.  If you believe last nights 0z Euro, it ushers in a Lobe of the Polar Vortex right over the GL's with subzero lows the following weekend north of the "Cheddar Curtain"!  My goodness, if that happens, I'm sure plenty of the ski resorts in the region will be opening up early for the Thanksgiving holiday week.  #Good4Biz

"Here...Polar Vortex..."

 

 

[Tom]

INDY reported a record snowfall event of 2.7" yesterday and more is coming this week....and the following week...and then we will be 

 

 

 

One of the LR calls I've been pondering on was for Thanksgiving week "shenanigans" and the development of more high lat blocking up near Greenland.  Last nights 0z EPS continues the trend since yesterday's 12z run and continues to cool Thanksgiving week and upping the ante of a Thanksgiving Winter Storm.  #SWFlow #SPlainsCutter

 

 

[westMJim]

The string of above average days was broken yesterday. After 14 days in a row of above average temperature Grand Rapids had a below average day. The official H/L was 41/32 there was a trace of snow fall and just 3% of sunshine. The overnight low so far for today has been 31. At the current time I have a reading of 32 and there is light snow falling. There is now a trace of snow on the ground here at my house for the 1^st time for the winter of 2022/23 season. The average H/L for today is 48/34 the record high of 70 was in 1989 and the record low of 10 was set in 1986. The record snow fall amount of 3.5” was set in 1959. Last year Grand Rapids had a H/L of 42/33 and there was a reported 0.5” of snow fall.

 

[Wheezer]

Had about 2" of snowfall throughout yesterday in and around the Cincinnati area.  Although there was never 2"on the ground at any one time because of the warm ground temps.  Imby had an inch through early morning,  a brief break and melting , then another inch late morning Into the afternoon.   An impressive feat considering the first 10 days of November's double digit above normal temps

[Tom]

Very impressive snowfall totals that hit the MW yesterday...

[Andie]

We made it.

First freeze. 31* 

Dew 25*.  Humidity 35%

[Madtown]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

It was a wonderful Saturday here in the PHX valley as we enjoyed crystal clear blue skies and temps topped out in the low 70's (74F).  As much as I am enjoying these wonderful temps, I'm yearning for some Snow and Cold to get me in the Holiday spirit.  I took a gander at my local grid forecast back home and it looks more like a mid/late DEC forecast!  High temps won't get above freezing for several days if the forecast holds.  If you believe last nights 0z Euro, it ushers in a Lobe of the Polar Vortex right over the GL's with subzero lows the following weekend north of the "Cheddar Curtain"!  My goodness, if that happens, I'm sure plenty of the ski resorts in the region will be opening up early for the Thanksgiving holiday week.  #Good4Biz

"Here...Polar Vortex..."

 

 

Question is how big o a snap back early Dec. Nervous we blow this first half of Dec thanks to this early cold.

[chescowxman]

11 of our first 12 days this month have averaged well (+11.5 degrees) above normal. This is by far the warmest first 12 days to start November in Chester County history. The top 5 warmest prior to 2022 were: 1935 (55.4)/2020 (55.3)/1975 (55.1)/2015 (55.0) and 1946 (54.9). Now after that warm start we will do what the climate likes to do....even things out with a now well below normal stretch of weather over at least the next 2 weeks. Today will likely average above normal only because our high temperature occurred at midnight at 55.1. With the exception of Tuesday night expect below freezing low temperatures across the entire county for the next couple of weeks. We should see rain overspreading the county starting on Tuesday evening....this may start as a little wet snow or sleet in some spots in NW Chester County. It looks like another 0.50" to 1.00" of rain with that system.

The record high temperature for today is 78 degrees set in 1902. The record low is 17 degrees set in 1920. The daily rain record is 2.33" set in 1904. The daily snow record occurred just 8 years ago when 1.5" fell in 2014.

[chescowxman]

11 of our first 12 days this month have averaged well (+11.5 degrees) above normal. This is by far the warmest first 12 days to start November in Chester County history. The top 5 warmest prior to 2022 were: 1935 (55.4)/2020 (55.3)/1975 (55.1)/2015 (55.0) and 1946 (54.9). Now after that warm start we will do what the climate likes to do....even things out with a now well below normal stretch of weather over at least the next 2 weeks. Today will likely average above normal only because our high temperature occurred at midnight at 55.1. With the exception of Tuesday night expect below freezing low temperatures across the entire county for the next couple of weeks. We should see rain overspreading the county starting on Tuesday evening....this may start as a little wet snow or sleet in some spots in NW Chester County. It looks like another 0.50" to 1.00" of rain with that system.

The record high temperature for today is 78 degrees set in 1902. The record low is 17 degrees set in 1920. The daily rain record is 2.33" set in 1904. The daily snow record occurred just 8 years ago when 1.5" fell in 2014.

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, westMJim said:

The string of above average days was broken yesterday. After 14 days in a row of above average temperature Grand Rapids had a below average day. The official H/L was 41/32 there was a trace of snow fall and just 3% of sunshine. The overnight low so far for today has been 31. At the current time I have a reading of 32 and there is light snow falling. There is now a trace of snow on the ground here at my house for the 1^st time for the winter of 2022/23 season. The average H/L for today is 48/34 the record high of 70 was in 1989 and the record low of 10 was set in 1986. The record snow fall amount of 3.5” was set in 1959. Last year Grand Rapids had a H/L of 42/33 and there was a reported 0.5” of snow fall.

 

Surprising year for that record. A few days later a bliz was raging over the Mitt. 

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Very impressive snowfall totals that hit the MW yesterday...

Wow yeah, that's gotta be up there on the list of early Nov snows for a lot of places down in the SOHV. I could be too far N if this is a recurring theme. 

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I think I'll need to wait for the next cold shot and the pattern to reset to get any meaningful accumulations. This is just not a good pattern to bring substantial moisture to my area, apparently. We are scrounging for any solid precip but it seems to continuously skirt around us in the current setup.

On the cold side of things, we dropped down to 17 this morning. We are not being able to reach our full low temp potential due to stubborn stratus that has been hanging around the past few days.  If we could get that to clear out we should bottom out more impressively.

Haven't a clue how it works in the PNW, but here in the MW if you are "just missed" N, it will be a while b4 your zone is targeted. 

[Stacsh]

Currently on track to have some decent LES event Thursday through Saturday this week.  Perfect west flow reminding me of 2014 lol I asked and I may receive.  

[jaster220]

55 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Currently on track to have some decent LES event Thursday through Saturday this week.  Perfect west flow reminding me of 2014 lol I asked and I may receive.  

Greatness. I figured your call to be last scoring snow was premature. That dubious honor will likely be mine. At least for those I-80 and north.

[james1976]

Currently at 21° at the MN home. Officially the coldest temp yet this season according to my weather station.

We've been under 32° for the entire weekend so the ground should be ready to go for accumulating snow starting tomorrow