November 2022 Observations and Discussion

[hawkstwelve]

13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Anywhere near a river? In a lowland area like me? Terrain in SEMI slopes downward from the "ridge" a county N and NW of here to the Detroit river. I will suffer down-sloping anytime there's snow coming from those directions. Last winter I watched twice as really potent squall line (1 even got the formal Squall Warning) was blasting it's way due S right at mby, only to pull a vanishing act as it reached 1/2 a county north of here. 

Interesting points. This caused me to take a deeper dive into South Dakota geography.

Turns out, there is a higher plateau just to the north of Sioux Falls called 'Coteau des Prairies' which can reach upwards of 2000+ ft. It runs from the NE corner of South Dakota down into SW MN and NW IA. Sioux Falls (blue circle) is at one of the southern bases of this Plateau, which is also the start of the Dissected Till Plains that runs from Missouri up through NE, IA, MN, and SD. The SSW portion of this Plateau comprises the Buffalo Ridge in Minnesota, which is a distinct region that can generate it's own weather (higher winds, higher snow, etc.) versus surrounding areas.

Now put this in the context of the flow over the past week - a fairly strong NNW wind with systems dropping down out of the NW. This would put Sioux Falls on the leeward side of the Plateau, which I could see causing some downsloping winds and drying effects. On the contrary, the NW side of the Plateau (orange circle) would benefit from upslope. This actually gets picked up in high-res models like the HRDPS below that shows a small section of 2-3 inches falling in that same area. 

I guess when you think of South Dakota you think it's all flat with little variation. Come to find out, that is certainly not the case!

[hawkstwelve]

The above geography is probably a part of the reason why the largest snowstorms to hit Sioux Falls have come out of the south instead of from the north. The composite below shows the average sea level pressure during the middle of our largest 20 snowstorms. The warmer, moist SW winds advect more significant moisture into the area which can counteract the downsloping winds off the Plateau, which are actually coming more out of the NE in the below scenario. This flow might also lead to some upslope over Sioux Falls if the cards played out right.

I suppose I now know which direction I want to ideally shoot for when tracking winter storms!

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/fssnowstormcomposite

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, Jarod said:

I think they are being pretty cautious. Every time we get a westerly lake effect event this early in the year it way over-performs wherever the dominant band sets up. I think someone will end up with a foot. If the winds shift around, usually this is somewhere in Zeeland to hudsonville which seems to be where the axis usually is as long as the flow stays somewhat westerly.  Either way this should be a nice early lake effect event for once.

Curious to see how the models perform.  While we certainly are not the long fetch of Lake Ontario, it can dump here with the right set up.  

[CentralNebWeather]

The Thanksgiving time storm is back on the 12Z GFS after disappearing for the last 2 runs.  I'll keep watching the trends, but hopefully some much needed moisture for our area.

[Andie]

When you fellas said the US would have a real winter you called it right, even for the far north on the East Coast. 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/feet-of-snow-to-bury-buffalo-as-potentially-historic-lake-effect-event-looms/1278208

 

[Grizzcoat]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

The above geography is probably a part of the reason why the largest snowstorms to hit Sioux Falls have come out of the south instead of from the north. The composite below shows the average sea level pressure during the middle of our largest 20 snowstorms. The warmer, moist SW winds advect more significant moisture into the area which can counteract the downsloping winds off the Plateau, which are actually coming more out of the NE in the below scenario. This flow might also lead to some upslope over Sioux Falls if the cards played out right.

I suppose I now know which direction I want to ideally shoot for when tracking winter storms!

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/fssnowstormcomposite

called a Texas Hooker. She rains here ( C.IA)  most times, but when just E as depicted  -- that Hooker is prime.... Most times- the Hooker scores big time for the SW MN / SE SD.

[hawkstwelve]

7 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Hey hawkstwelve-

Was in Sioux Falls over the weekend for my sons cross county meet- nice town!!! Like a smaller DSM, easily could live there.

Well a belated welcome to Sioux Falls! We absolutely love it here. Everyone is so welcoming and nice, plus you have just about any shopping, restaurant, big box store, etc. that you could possibly need. Convenience of a big city but with a small town vibe. Perfect combination, IMO. Hope you get to visit again soon!

[Tom]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

The Thanksgiving time storm is back on the 12Z GFS after disappearing for the last 2 runs.  I'll keep watching the trends, but hopefully some much needed moisture for our area.

Hope this brings a solid CO Low across the Sub...blocking setting up over Canada could be ideal!

[tStacsh]

Current forecast through just saturday morning.  More accumulations likely Saturday night/ Sunday.

[Grizzcoat]

Forecast highs for today have taken a step back from 32F to 26F for DSM under stratus and a brisk NW wind with CAA.  IN fact, if the 27F (just after midnight holds) it would be the 5th coldest high for Nov 16th on record. I heat with wood. Burning today like a typical Jan day.

[Niko]

Buffalo NY is the place to be in the coming days. They will get feet of snow (3-6').

[Niko]

Here is a sneak peak of what Thanksgiving Day weatherwise will look like: but this could change.

 

[Niko]

@jaster220correct me if I am wrong bud, but is Marshall under a WSW. 

GRR going all out. Usually they are very conservative!

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Current forecast through just saturday morning.  More accumulations likely Saturday night/ Sunday.

What is "telling" on their map is they have 8+ well into Eaton Cnty, 6+ south side of Lansing. Buckle-up anywhere west of there back to within about 5 miles of the lakeshore. Looking like my former In-law's city of Plainwell is ground zero with early maps showing 12+. December of 1990 there was a bliz centered over EWI and the backside LES dumped 27" there in 2 days. Once in a while they will get slammed. 

[Stacsh]

12 minutes ago, Niko said:

@jaster220correct me if I am wrong bud, but is Marshall under a WSW. 

GRR going all out. Usually they are very conservative!

Lake Michigan is still in the mid to upper 50’s.  This could be epic for some areas 

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, Niko said:

@jaster220correct me if I am wrong bud, but is Marshall under a WSW. 

Good call. Yes, tho as I said earlier, we had one in Nov 2014 and the winds were not favorable. I got just 2" fluffy inches. l have seen GRR go full-county warning for LES events multiple times over my 2 decades living there when the impacts were limited to the NW 1/3 of the county. They should do the Severe Wx limited warning cone in most cases but they're too lazy it seems to get accuracy along 94. 

[jaster220]

A shorty on the BIG ONE. Could it be Chi-town's turn again??

The Great 1967 Chicago Blizzard - YouTube

[westMJim]

35 minutes ago, Niko said:

@jaster220,

6 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Current forecast through just saturday morning.  More accumulations likely Saturday night/ Sunday.

 

10 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Curious to see how the models perform.  While we certainly are not the long fetch of Lake Ontario, it can dump here with the right set up.  

 

25 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Lake Michigan is still in the mid to upper 50’s.  This could be epic for some areas

 

26 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

 

Here are some of the bigger November snow events at Grand Rapids with a warm Lake and a west wind. November 15/20 2014 27.8". November 3/7 1951 23.4" November 2/5 1991 17.2" November 18/21 2000 17.1". Of course it is way too early to tell if this year will play out to anything near what happened in those years but they are the bench mark for November snow events. 

 

[jaster220]

IWX on tonight's current LES Warning (I seriously cannot keep up with everything, and I'm not even getting much, lol)

This favors a relatively large band of 6+ through nrn Laporte east
across SBN and north through wrn/cntrl Cass and all of Berrien.
Inside that should be an smaller inner band pushing 12 inches within
a wrn South Bend, Michigan City, Baroda triangle.

 Caught my attention since my former director in St. Joseph lives in Baroda. Its a legit "one horse town" as they used to say. 

[jaster220]

21 minutes ago, westMJim said:

 

@westMJim Thank you Jim, you just read my mind. 

Was also thinking about bigger/biggest Nov snows for those of us outside of the LES belt, especially over on this side in SEMI. 

I can't imagine (or recall) anything that would rival the large coverage of 11-22-15 (a Nino autumn). Nearly 18" in hardest hit areas about a county NW of metro Detroit. 

[Stacsh]

27 minutes ago, westMJim said:

 

Good info thanks!   1991 was one of my first early season le snow events as I was 11 years old.  

[jaster220]

From APX. Looks like both my former residences in NW & SWMI will be under Warnings. Maybe Squall Warnings per this:

Just
looking at soundings, with low level lapse rates possibly exceeding
8 degrees C/km, this will be conducive for the development of
locally intense snow squalls spreading across areas south of M-55 in
the afternoon, which can lead to rapid drops in visibility and quick
accumulations on roadways, which may lead to dangerous conditions on
area roads and expressways.

To clarify, "south of M-55" is not even traditional LES belt turf. 

[jaster220]

Not that I'd want to be caught in such dangerous travel conditions (nearly got ran over by a semi going north on US-131 when I lived up in TC), but this would could be wild. 

Farther north, as this boundary pivots
and turns more west-to-east, weak flow coupled with lake heating
processes will allow for the potential repeated development of
mesolows across northern Lake Michigan, which will slowly move
inland later in the day on Thursday. If these mesolows can develop,
they will be capable of producing impressive snowfall rates, perhaps
is excess of 2"/hr in the best developed bands. This too will lead
to rapidly falling visibilities across the Grand Traverse Bay
region, the Tip of the Mitt, and potentially northward across the
Straits. Make no mistake about it, the timing of this could coincide
with the evening commute, along with those traveling northward for
the first weekend of hunting season, which is a recipe for
significantly slowed and even dangerous commuting across northern
lower and parts of eastern upper Michigan Thursday afternoon into
the evening.

[jaster220]

18 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Good info thanks!   1991 was one of my first early season le snow events as I was 11 years old.  

If you want to see the real break-down of meteorology, don't look at a GRR AFD. Go to ANY other office for that detailed intel:

Forecast soundings display an impressive environment in place with nearly dry
adiabatic lapse rates and saturation extending through the depth of
the troposphere. With forcing through the DGZ, large flake sizes and
efficient snowfall is anticipated with any activity -- especially
within dominant banding. Thus, it would be no surprise to see double-
digit snowfall totals, rapid drops in visibility, and dangerous
travel at times across the aforementioned area from Friday evening
into Saturday.

[jaster220]

Gonna b some 3 footer reports in NMI by the looks of things. This starting to remind of the Dec '01 mega LES outbreak. That one was a full 7 days though, and brought places like Petoskey 84" (yeah, 7 feet!) during that period. I was in S. Bend then and the WSW wind vector meant we sat on the sidelines. 

All things considered, it is not out of the
question for localized areas that experience multiple rounds of snow
late this week through the weekend to get snowfall totals in excess
of 24" by Monday.

[Niko]

2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Lake Michigan is still in the mid to upper 50’s.  This could be epic for some areas 

Cant imagine having a forecast for feet of snow and then suddenly you get a slight change in wind flow and end up w/ very little snow. Suicide warnings will be posted immediately.

[Niko]

I think the Thanksgiving storm has gotten colder! Could be some major changes for some.

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, Niko said:

Cant imagine having a forecast for feet of snow and then suddenly you get a slight change in wind flow and end up w/ very little snow. Suicide warnings will be posted immediately.

I think my biggest let-down in that regard was the very hyped Dec of '01 LES blitz. I was in S. Bend then and just presumed we'd we in on that. Well, the winds went WSW and never switched from that for all 7 days! We got absolutely NADA. On that wind direction, you have to go across the state line into SWMI (where they did very well). 

I am planning to visit fam this weekend. I'm thinking a slight detour to at least see some #realsnow may be in the works. 

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, Niko said:

I think the Thanksgiving storm has gotten colder! Could be some major changes for some.

Last I heard, it was looking like a warm rainer but I think it's too early to know really

[Niko]

18 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Last I heard, it was looking like a warm rainer but I think it's too early to know really

My forecast calling for rain, but temps are colder. Maybe blocking will show its presence and models are starting to see it. Time will tell.

[Madtown]

looks like this meso low may clip me!

[Grizzcoat]

Climo change at Madison,SD--- Temp going below dewpoint--

[Tom]

It is now becoming apparent that the models are digesting the -NAO block and the emergence of a sweet looking Hudson Bay Block that is "seeding" the cold over the GL's region by Turkey Day.  Should be fun seeing the various model solutions for what may be a PAC Hybrid Clipper phasing with a southern Low somewhere over the OHV/Lower Lakes region.

 

Trends off the EPS...the appearance of the Hudson Bay Block....

 

 

Both the 0z Euro/EPS have significantly cooled the eastern Sub around Thanksgiving...+ trends for those winter wx fans!

 

 

 

0z Euro Op 10mb forecast suggests to me that the pattern looks favorable for sustained cold over Eastern North America.  That's a pretty map right there.

[chescowxman]

A couple light flurries have been around this morning. Breezy and colder today. Our temperatures will be staying below normal till warming to near normal as we approach the Thanksgiving Holiday.

The record high for today is 76 degrees from way back in 1896. The record low is 9 degrees from 1933. The daily rain record is a whopping 3.40" from 1935. The daily snowfall record is 1.0" from 1980.

[Grizzcoat]

Billings,MT chasing history with all ready the 6th coldest NOV on record.

[Tom]

Impressive snow cover for this time of year (41% coverage)...it may not be that accurate but a reason why its so important to lay down the snow to brew "home grown" cold.

 

 

[westMJim]

Yesterday’s official H/L at Grand Rapids was 34/29 there was 0.03” of precipitation, 0.4” of snow fall. There was no sunshine at 7 AM there was 3’ of snow on the ground. The overnight low here in MBY was 24 when there was some clearing. At the current times it is 29 with light snow falling and there is around 1” of snow on the ground here. For today the average H/L is 47/32 the record high of 70 was recorded in 1953 and 1958 the record low of 9 was recorded in 1959. The record snow fall for today is 7.1” in 1989 there was a 6.0 snow fall in 2014. We will see how the next few days compare to past big November snow fall events. The snow fall has really picked up here and now I am getting moderate snow fall.

[westMJim]

It has been snowing at a light to moderate rate now since 8 AM. Here in my yard I have just under 3" of new snow on the ground. There is just slush on the driveway and sidewalk. The warm ground and a air temperature of 34 is keeping total on the ground down.

[GDR]

Northeast Iowa gets hammered Black Friday  12z 

[GDR]

Check that, eastern Iowa and Chicago get dumped on through the first

[hawkstwelve]

12z GEM showing a decent sized post-Thanksgiving ice storm.

[jaster220]

12 hours ago, Niko said:

My forecast calling for rain, but temps are colder. Maybe blocking will show its presence and models are starting to see it. Time will tell.

Hello blocking??

[Tom]

14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hello blocking??

These are the PAC Hybrids I commented on hoping we can see more of in DEC...let's go for Thanksgiving!

[jaster220]

Legit 20's and all puddles iced over here this morning. Even some quite large and deep close to work. Getting the warmth out of the ground that's for sure.

And the old school rules complete the circuit with these maps:

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is just dropping the western energy into a hole in Mexico, never to be seen again.

[Iceresistance]

The MJO forecast is eerily similar to November-December 1983 and 1989. We could have a monster cold wave (or multiple reinforcements) for December and the CFS model is showing a active mid to late December. 

[Tom]

23 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro is just dropping the western energy into a hole in Mexico, never to be seen again.

Usual bias…not too worried…there will be a formidable system in the center of our Sub.  All teleconnections point to it and ensemble support.

[westMJim]

There is now around 4" of snow on the ground here in my yard. There is no snow on the road and only spotty snow on the sidewalks and driveways.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GEM showing a decent sized post-Thanksgiving ice storm.

At this point, I'd take any moisture. 

[OKwx2k4]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

At this point, I'd take any moisture. 

Aside from that system, looking pretty bleak for everyone but Andie for awhile. 

Texas looks to catch up on some badly needed precipitation.