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November 2022 Observations and Discussion


Clinton

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Started as sleet rain mix here in the Western burbs of Philly in Chester County but now as temps continue to drop a bit we are seeing some big wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain.

Temp is down to 35.3

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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6 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Its the literal opposite of la Nina. Kinda weird, right?

And it makes me about have sick.  
This weather is tough on a Texan. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Giddy up:  exceed a foot?  Haven't had a LES event like this in quite awhile.  I'm in a sweet spot with a W to WSW and sometimes a WNW flow.  Especially this time of year.   

--HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY--     HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE OVER THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH SATURDAY AS   STRONG UPPER JET JET DIVES STRAIGHT SOUTH THROUGH WRN CANADA   ON THE BACK SIDE OF DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH. H8 TEMPS FALL OFF TO   ABOUT -15C BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING   THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.     IDEAL SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD FOR   OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW, WITH THE POLAR JET   WEST AND SOUTH OF MI, DELTA TS AROUND 25C, AND DEEP CYCLONIC   WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO OCCUR WHEN   STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE PASSING THROUGH, WHICH   AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL   LIKELY VARY BETWEEN SW AND NW IN BETWEEN THESE WAVES AND   ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES, NOT TO MENTION ANY LAKE AGGREGATE   IMPACTS ON THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. AS SUCH, EXPECT THE AREAS OF   HEAVIEST SNOW TO SHIFT AROUND SOMEWHAT AND FOCUS ON DIFFERENT   COMMUNITIES FROM DAY TO DAY.     TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE   TO SLIPPERY ROADS AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN   HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. HEAVIEST TOTALS OVER A SEVERAL DAY   PERIOD WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE FOOT FOR SOME AREAS NEAR AND WEST   OF 131. AT TIMES THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL PENETRATE WELL   EASTWARD THROUGH LOWER MI ALONG THE I-96/I-94 CORRIDORS,   PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  

FINALLY!  Hope it delivers beyond what you expect and their forecast. As you said, could models be under-playing the amount of instability that will be created due to the elevated lake temps? WMI isn't really known for that like NEOH and KBUF where they get both huge elevation boosts and lake-fetch convergence. But, every once in a while Lk. Mich will deliver and this is looking like the best chance since 2014 for your region. I'd hazard to say that it's better to be further inland too with the winds and lake warmth taking the good stuff right on over the lakeshore. Best of luck. I can only hope I eventually get something as exciting around here. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I need to figure out which weather god I pissed off and how to remedy it. Not joking, almost every snowfall map shows a perfect hole right over Minnehaha County. In the below case, I get less than even the rest of the county. I fall squarely in the light gray section near the 0.3 close the IA border. The maps I shared earlier showed snow practically every direction around my county but almost nothing right over it.

Obviously it's just models and they shouldn't be treated as gospel but it's pretty crazy to see this time after time. Maybe there is a micro-climate here that I'm unaware of? I don't know what it is but it's getting pretty funny.

1669464000-8YkoWqvJnCc.png

Anywhere near a river? In a lowland area like me? Terrain in SEMI slopes downward from the "ridge" a county N and NW of here to the Detroit river. I will suffer down-sloping anytime there's snow coming from those directions. Last winter I watched twice as really potent squall line (1 even got the formal Squall Warning) was blasting it's way due S right at mby, only to pull a vanishing act as it reached 1/2 a county north of here. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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With an official snow fall of 3.2” Grand Rapids had its first snowfall of 1” or more for the 2022/23 winter season there was a total of 0.32” of precipitation with that snow fall. The official H/L was 33/28 and there was no sunshine. Here in MBY I have just over one inch of snow on the ground. With clear skies the temperature at the current time is 30 here at my house. For today the average H/L is 47/33 the record high of 68 was recorded way back in 1896 and the record low of 11 was set in 1933. The snow fall record for today is 5.0” set in 2005. Of note there is a winter storm watch out for Thursday thru at least Friday. Hard to tell where the heaver snow fall will be at this time.

 

 

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11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

FINALLY!  Hope it delivers beyond what you expect and their forecast. As you said, could models be under-playing the amount of instability that will be created due to the elevated lake temps? WMI isn't really known for that like NEOH and KBUF where they get both huge elevation boosts and lake-fetch convergence. But, every once in a while Lk. Mich will deliver and this is looking like the best chance since 2014 for your region. I'd hazard to say that it's better to be further inland too with the winds and lake warmth taking the good stuff right on over the lakeshore. Best of luck. I can only hope I eventually get something as exciting around here. 

I was going to comment on this and you basically expressed my thoughts to a "T".  Nov '14 redux?  I'd love to be in Buffalo, NY or up near Watertown, NY where there is more lift from the elevation.  I could see 4-5 Feet dumped somewhere in those snow belts.  Good luck! @westMJim @Stacsh

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We ended up with 0.99" of rain since last evening with 0.11" falling since midnight. We should be clearing out today and getting mostly sunny by late this morning. Today will be the mildest day for a while with temps reaching the upper 40's. The next week will feature temps well below normal for mid to late November and also dry. We should warm back to near normal by Thanksgiving weekend before slipping back a little below normal to end the month of November.
The record high for today is 73 degrees set in 1990. Our record low is just 7 degrees in 1908 - this was the earliest single digit reading in Chester County history. The daily rain record is 2.08" from 1926. The daily snow record is the 1.3" that fell just 4 years ago in 2018.
image.png.e43c624005565dde6bccd51af5526821.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

FINALLY!  Hope it delivers beyond what you expect and their forecast. As you said, could models be under-playing the amount of instability that will be created due to the elevated lake temps? WMI isn't really known for that like NEOH and KBUF where they get both huge elevation boosts and lake-fetch convergence. But, every once in a while Lk. Mich will deliver and this is looking like the best chance since 2014 for your region. I'd hazard to say that it's better to be further inland too with the winds and lake warmth taking the good stuff right on over the lakeshore. Best of luck. I can only hope I eventually get something as exciting around here. 

Yep I lived in  Grand haven in 2014 and we didn’t see nearly the snow accumulation that GR received during that week.  I remember driving into to work and shocked at the totals as you got further away from the lake.  

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ORD reported its 1st official 1" of snowfall right on the dot (1.0")...glad to see that snow stat is checked off the list.  This weekends PV visit is going to leave a mark over the MW/GL's region and I'm sure we'll be seeing record cold and snow stats smashed!  I still can't believe that my local grid has a string of temps in the low/mid 20's for highs Fri-Sun.  I just got the chills thinking of this!  

Meantime, we are fast approaching the kick off of the Holiday season next week and there is a storm brewing.  I love seeing the trends off the GEFS sniffing out the west-based Greenland Block right around Thanksgiving.  I'll be looking for the southern Low to cut up towards the Lakes/OHV region.  Let's see the models digest the blocking a little better as we head into the weekend.

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_17.png

 

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Winter storm watch hoisted:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of over 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Along and in between the I-96 and I-94 corridors. * WHEN...From Thursday morning through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant snowfall and reduced visibilities will affect US-131 during this timeframe.

 

Also experimental snowfall forecast are pretty cool.  Gives me a 90% chance of 5" or greater.  16% chance of greater than 8" and that's just through Friday evening.  I'm right on the " just north of GR.  

SnowAmt10Prcntl.thumb.jpg.1a3725987da73e381c66f09f23cc22dd.jpg

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27 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Winter storm watch hoisted:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of over 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Along and in between the I-96 and I-94 corridors. * WHEN...From Thursday morning through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant snowfall and reduced visibilities will affect US-131 during this timeframe.

 

Also experimental snowfall forecast are pretty cool.  Gives me a 90% chance of 5" or greater.  16% chance of greater than 8" and that's just through Friday evening.  I'm right on the " just north of GR.  

SnowAmt10Prcntl.thumb.jpg.1a3725987da73e381c66f09f23cc22dd.jpg

I think they are being pretty cautious. Every time we get a westerly lake effect event this early in the year it way over-performs wherever the dominant band sets up. I think someone will end up with a foot. If the winds shift around, usually this is somewhere in Zeeland to hudsonville which seems to be where the axis usually is as long as the flow stays somewhat westerly.  Either way this should be a nice early lake effect event for once.

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1 hour ago, Jarod said:

I think they are being pretty cautious. Every time we get a westerly lake effect event this early in the year it way over-performs wherever the dominant band sets up. I think someone will end up with a foot. If the winds shift around, usually this is somewhere in Zeeland to hudsonville which seems to be where the axis usually is as long as the flow stays somewhat westerly.  Either way this should be a nice early lake effect event for once.

Curious to see how the models perform.  While we certainly are not the long fetch of Lake Ontario, it can dump here with the right set up.  

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When you fellas said the US would have a real winter you called it right, even for the far north on the East Coast. 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/feet-of-snow-to-bury-buffalo-as-potentially-historic-lake-effect-event-looms/1278208


 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

The above geography is probably a part of the reason why the largest snowstorms to hit Sioux Falls have come out of the south instead of from the north. The composite below shows the average sea level pressure during the middle of our largest 20 snowstorms. The warmer, moist SW winds advect more significant moisture into the area which can counteract the downsloping winds off the Plateau, which are actually coming more out of the NE in the below scenario. This flow might also lead to some upslope over Sioux Falls if the cards played out right.

I suppose I now know which direction I want to ideally shoot for when tracking winter storms!

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/fssnowstormcomposite

Mean sea level pressure maps for the middle of snowstorms in Sioux Falls.

called a Texas Hooker. She rains here ( C.IA)  most times, but when just E as depicted  -- that Hooker is prime.... Most times- the Hooker scores big time for the SW MN / SE SD.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

The Thanksgiving time storm is back on the 12Z GFS after disappearing for the last 2 runs.  I'll keep watching the trends, but hopefully some much needed moisture for our area.

Hope this brings a solid CO Low across the Sub...blocking setting up over Canada could be ideal!

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Forecast highs for today have taken a step back from 32F to 26F for DSM under stratus and a brisk NW wind with CAA.  IN fact, if the 27F (just after midnight holds) it would be the 5th coldest high for Nov 16th on record. I heat with wood. Burning today like a typical Jan day.

image.thumb.png.fc6d18c3e03be1db0761120ef404fad4.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Buffalo NY is the place to be in the coming days. They will get feet of snow (3-6').

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Here is a sneak peak of what Thanksgiving Day weatherwise will look like: but this could change.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/thanksgiving-weather.jpg?w=632

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@jaster220correct me if I am wrong bud, but is Marshall under a WSW.  😬

GRR going all out. Usually they are very conservative!

https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/dtx.png

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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6 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Current forecast through just saturday morning.  More accumulations likely Saturday night/ Sunday.

2039786450_snowfallforecast.thumb.png.04bb89fb66af7a295a660f5559ffb86d.png

What is "telling" on their map is they have 8+ well into Eaton Cnty, 6+ south side of Lansing. Buckle-up anywhere west of there back to within about 5 miles of the lakeshore. Looking like my former In-law's city of Plainwell is ground zero with early maps showing 12+. December of 1990 there was a bliz centered over EWI and the backside LES dumped 27" there in 2 days. Once in a while they will get slammed. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 minutes ago, Niko said:

@jaster220correct me if I am wrong bud, but is Marshall under a WSW.  😬

https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/dtx.png

Good call. Yes, tho as I said earlier, we had one in Nov 2014 and the winds were not favorable. I got just 2" fluffy inches. l have seen GRR go full-county warning for LES events multiple times over my 2 decades living there when the impacts were limited to the NW 1/3 of the county. They should do the Severe Wx limited warning cone in most cases but they're too lazy it seems to get accuracy along 94. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A shorty on the BIG ONE. Could it be Chi-town's turn again??

The Great 1967 Chicago Blizzard - YouTube

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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35 minutes ago, Niko said:

@jaster220,

6 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Current forecast through just saturday morning.  More accumulations likely Saturday night/ Sunday.

2039786450_snowfallforecast.thumb.png.04bb89fb66af7a295a660f5559ffb86d.png

 

10 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Curious to see how the models perform.  While we certainly are not the long fetch of Lake Ontario, it can dump here with the right set up.  

 

25 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Lake Michigan is still in the mid to upper 50’s.  This could be epic for some areas

 

26 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

 

Here are some of the bigger November snow events at Grand Rapids with a warm Lake and a west wind. November 15/20 2014 27.8". November 3/7 1951 23.4" November 2/5 1991 17.2" November 18/21 2000 17.1". Of course it is way too early to tell if this year will play out to anything near what happened in those years but they are the bench mark for November snow events. 

 

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IWX on tonight's current LES Warning (I seriously cannot keep up with everything, and I'm not even getting much, lol)

This favors a relatively large band of 6+ through nrn Laporte east
across SBN and north through wrn/cntrl Cass and all of Berrien.
Inside that should be an smaller inner band pushing 12 inches within
a wrn South Bend, Michigan City, Baroda triangle.

 Caught my attention since my former director in St. Joseph lives in Baroda. Its a legit "one horse town" as they used to say. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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21 minutes ago, westMJim said:

 

@westMJim Thank you Jim, you just read my mind. 

Was also thinking about bigger/biggest Nov snows for those of us outside of the LES belt, especially over on this side in SEMI. 

I can't imagine (or recall) anything that would rival the large coverage of 11-22-15 (a Nino autumn). Nearly 18" in hardest hit areas about a county NW of metro Detroit. 

SnowWebGraphic_20151121_0800.png

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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From APX. Looks like both my former residences in NW & SWMI will be under Warnings. Maybe Squall Warnings per this:

Just
looking at soundings, with low level lapse rates possibly exceeding
8 degrees C/km, this will be conducive for the development of
locally intense snow squalls spreading across areas south of M-55 in
the afternoon, which can lead to rapid drops in visibility and quick
accumulations on roadways, which may lead to dangerous conditions on
area roads and expressways.

To clarify, "south of M-55" is not even traditional LES belt turf. 

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not that I'd want to be caught in such dangerous travel conditions (nearly got ran over by a semi going north on US-131 when I lived up in TC), but this would could be wild. 

Farther north, as this boundary pivots
and turns more west-to-east, weak flow coupled with lake heating
processes will allow for the potential repeated development of
mesolows across northern Lake Michigan, which will slowly move
inland later in the day on Thursday. If these mesolows can develop,
they will be capable of producing impressive snowfall rates, perhaps
is excess of 2"/hr in the best developed bands. This too will lead
to rapidly falling visibilities across the Grand Traverse Bay
region, the Tip of the Mitt, and potentially northward across the
Straits. Make no mistake about it, the timing of this could coincide
with the evening commute, along with those traveling northward for
the first weekend of hunting season, which is a recipe for
significantly slowed and even dangerous commuting across northern
lower and parts of eastern upper Michigan Thursday afternoon into
the evening.
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  • Snow 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Good info thanks!   1991 was one of my first early season le snow events as I was 11 years old.  

If you want to see the real break-down of meteorology, don't look at a GRR AFD. Go to ANY other office for that detailed intel:

Forecast soundings display an impressive environment in place with nearly dry
adiabatic lapse rates and saturation extending through the depth of
the troposphere. With forcing through the DGZ, large flake sizes and
efficient snowfall is anticipated with any activity -- especially
within dominant banding. Thus, it would be no surprise to see double-
digit snowfall totals, rapid drops in visibility, and dangerous
travel at times across the aforementioned area from Friday evening
into Saturday.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Gonna b some 3 footer reports in NMI by the looks of things. This starting to remind of the Dec '01 mega LES outbreak. That one was a full 7 days though, and brought places like Petoskey 84" (yeah, 7 feet!) during that period. I was in S. Bend then and the WSW wind vector meant we sat on the sidelines. 

All things considered, it is not out of the
question for localized areas that experience multiple rounds of snow
late this week through the weekend to get snowfall totals in excess
of 24" by Monday.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Lake Michigan is still in the mid to upper 50’s.  This could be epic for some areas 

Cant imagine having a forecast for feet of snow and then suddenly you get a slight change in wind flow and end up w/ very little snow. Suicide warnings will be posted immediately.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I think the Thanksgiving storm has gotten colder! Could be some major changes for some.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12 minutes ago, Niko said:

Cant imagine having a forecast for feet of snow and then suddenly you get a slight change in wind flow and end up w/ very little snow. Suicide warnings will be posted immediately.

I think my biggest let-down in that regard was the very hyped Dec of '01 LES blitz. I was in S. Bend then and just presumed we'd we in on that. Well, the winds went WSW and never switched from that for all 7 days! We got absolutely NADA. On that wind direction, you have to go across the state line into SWMI (where they did very well). 

I am planning to visit fam this weekend. I'm thinking a slight detour to at least see some #realsnow may be in the works. 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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