November 2022 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

6 minutes ago, luminen said:

Still waiting for first snow here. 

Where exactly are you man?? 

[Tom]

40 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Both the Euro and GFS are showing a strong and wet storm in plains on the 24th.  This needs to be watched as the AO and NAO are forecasted to go negative around the 20th.  I believe it's in response to the blocking you mentioned.  We will have a little battle of the teleconnections as the MJO will be in phase 6.   Are there signs of cycle 2 showing up around the 30th?

I’ll have to dig into this deeper in the coming week…

[Clinton]

If the long range GFS is close to accurate we may be looking at the start of cycle 2 of the LRC.  It's not a perfect match but this is the GFS at 360 hrs so it's pretty close given the range.  IF this verifies we would be looking at a 54 day cycle.  All the main features are there you can see how things have been shoved south as the Jet Stream strengthens and has dropped south.

[Jayhawker85]

36 minutes ago, Clinton said:

If the long range GFS is close to accurate we may be looking at the start of cycle 2 of the LRC.  It's not a perfect match but this is the GFS at 360 hrs so it's pretty close given the range.  IF this verifies we would be looking at a 54 day cycle.  All the main features are there you can see how things have been shoved south as the Jet Stream strengthens and has dropped south.

Hmmm if we are nearing the end of the first cycle I’m kind of sad as i would want a couple more storms to dig into the SW and swing up through Oklahoma and southern Mo but i guess we shall see how the northern branch and the southern stream interacts this winter 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Hmmm if we are nearing the end of the first cycle I’m kind of sad as i would want a couple more storms to dig into the SW and swing up through Oklahoma and southern Mo but i guess we shall see how the northern branch and the southern stream interacts this winter 

As Tom pointed out it looks like there will be a good storm around Thanksgiving that may take that track so there is another one.

[jaster220]

Just now, Clinton said:

As Tom pointed out it looks like there will be a good storm around Thanksgiving that may take that track so there is another one.

Idk what he's complaining about tbh? Seems that's all I've seen for weeks is OK and peeps west of me getting slammed left, right, and sideways. Pencil me confused. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Both the Euro and GFS are showing a strong and wet storm in plains on the 24th.  This needs to be watched as the AO and NAO are forecasted to go negative around the 20th.  I believe it's in response to the blocking you mentioned.  We will have a little battle of the teleconnections as the MJO will be in phase 6.   Are there signs of cycle 2 showing up around the 30th?

Sure is nice to suddenly be tracking "Storms, storms, and rumors of Storms" 

[Andie]

Absolutely miserable day in North Texas. Drizzle, drizzle, rain, drizzle. 
 

I had to drive in it 2/3 of the day.   Its fine if you’re by the fire, but traffic stinks!!

42*, Overcast, Humidity 91%

[Clinton]

9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Idk what he's complaining about tbh? Seems that's all I've seen for weeks is OK and peeps west of me getting slammed left, right, and sideways. Pencil me confused. 

The KC area was bone dry and warm in October, things changed about 3 weeks ago and we've had a good run lately.  Many have had it worse and have far worse long range outlooks.

[jaster220]

The development of this critter is indeed intriguing. As @Clinton was saying, it's almost as if it wants to stay a bit more south. This is the tail end after mostly rain. 

 

[Phil]

Definitely feeling more like late fall/early winter now, after a couple weeks of warmth. Dewpoint reached 70°F with the passage of Nicole 4 days ago. Glad that is behind us now.

Might see a few sleet pellets tomorrow as overrunning precip begins. otherwise it’s gonna be a cold, rainy day.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

The development of this critter is indeed intriguing. As @Clinton was saying, it's almost as if it wants to stay a bit more south. This is the tail end after mostly rain. 

 

We need to block it up, the cold air is not far away, especially on the 12z Euro. 

[jaster220]

57 minutes ago, Clinton said:

We need to block it up, the cold air is not far away, especially on the 12z Euro. 

The reason I said what I did is that verbatim, its portrayal NEVER happens. It delivers a robust snowstorm to the N half of The Mitt, then throws me way down here that backside blast. It is one or the other, never do those 2 combine. A snowstorm for NMI is a rainer if not a Low Party for far SEMI. 

[Clinton]

The return of split flow with the cutoff low showing up well on the 0z GFS.

[Grizzcoat]

NWS forecasting near to record low max temps for this Friday. Ouch!! =  and goodbye positive deviations from normal for the month of NOV very soon -- amazing since it was +11F through the 9th!!!

Friday will be rather
cold and record minimum maximums (low highs) may be set. The current
forecast is 21 (24 current record) at Des Moines with 20 at
Waterloo (20 is current record).

[westMJim]

Welcome to the start of Michigan’s fire-arm dear season. Boy how times have changed when I was younger today was almost like a state Holladay. Employers would ask who was going deer hunting and over on the east side of the state I 75 would see massive traffic jams. There were reports of over 750,000 hunters and would be hunters heading up north. On the weather front the official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 39/29. There was no rain/snow fall and no sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 27 when some clearing took place and is now up to 32 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is 47/33 the record high of 68 was in 1969 and the record low of 10 was set in 1933. The record snow fall is 4.1” in 1969. Last year the H/L was 38/31 and a trace of snow fall was reported. We will now set back and see how much snow falls over the next several days.

[Tom]

The mornings out here are getting chilly and from what the local mets are saying it is coming early this season.  Temps have dipped into the upper 30's in the colder spots across the valley.  Flagstaff has dropped to 16F with no snow OTG.  Brrrr!

 

[Madtown]

Euro blasts some heat in here next week ...40ish. The GFS an Canadian say stay in the freezer....getting to point of no return on the big rink...what say the people

[Andie]

North Texas is seeing mid to lower 30’s this morning. 

I’m at 35 and 90% humidity.  
Talk about cold and damp.  

[chescowxman]

Some low to mid-20's in some of the lower spots across Chester County this morning. With upper 20's in the relatively higher spots. Cloudy today with a mixture of light rain and some wet snow mixed in especially in some of the elevations over 600 ft asl across the county by late today and early this evening. The just plain rain later with between 0.5" to 1.0" of rain before it ends by dawn tomorrow.

Continued well below normal readings will continue till about Thanksgiving. We may see a little warm up around the holiday weekend before it chills down again to close out November.

The record high for today is 78 degrees set in 1993. Our record low is 16 degrees in 1905. Daily rain record is 2.18" from 1914. The daily snow record is just 0.5" from way back in 1906.

[westMJim]

Took a quick measurement and lo and behold now have the first one inch of snow fall here in my yard. BTY the average first one inch snow fall at Grand Rapids is November 19th so just a little ahead this year.

[hawkstwelve]

Thanksgiving night snowstorm for some folks (@CentralNebWeather!) on the 12z GFS.

[hawkstwelve]

12z GEM showing something similar...

[hawkstwelve]

Geez louise... Two feet of snow near @CentralNebWeather on the 12z GFS. Over four feet in western KS.

Meanwhile, good 'ol snowfall donut hole of Sioux Falls, SD remains strong! 

[OKwx2k4]

Going to be fun to model watch the next 5 days or so with the Thanksgiving week system. 

Got solutions ranging from nothing to a 2 piece system to what you see in 12z today. 

I'm favoring a phased blend by the time all is said and done, but we will see. 

Been a neat November so far. My snow is all gone already. Got around an inch. 

[OKwx2k4]

4 hours ago, Andie said:

North Texas is seeing mid to lower 30’s this morning. 

I’m at 35 and 90% humidity.  
Talk about cold and damp.  

Its the literal opposite of la Nina. Kinda weird, right?

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Geez louise... Two feet of snow near @CentralNebWeather on the 12z GFS. Over four feet in western KS.

Meanwhile, good 'ol snowfall donut hole of Sioux Falls, SD remains strong! 

Looks fun.  Never get my hopes up as most of the time we get nowhere near these amounts.  I look more at trends, so this will get my attention if it continues to show up in future runs.

[Phil]

44 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Geez louise... Two feet of snow near @CentralNebWeather on the 12z GFS. Over four feet in western KS.

Meanwhile, good 'ol snowfall donut hole of Sioux Falls, SD remains strong! 

You don’t wanna be in the jackpot that far out. Lol.

[Phil]

Had a rain/sleet mix for ~ 20mins upon precip onset thanks to evaporative cooling.

Now a chilly rain with temps hovering in the upper 30s/low 40s.

[chescowxman]

Our first wintry precipitation of the winter season has just begun here in East Nantmeal Township in the philly burbs. Light sleet with a temp at 38.5 degrees. Might see a few wet snow flakes mixing in from time to time before a change to plain rain later.

[tStacsh]

Models spit out anywhere from 6-14" this weekend IMBY from LES/LEHS.   Wonder if it's under doing some totals with the lakes still so warm.  

[james1976]

Definitely looking like a system around Thanksgiving in the middle of the country. Should be interesting to watch the trends. Definitely a great November so far.

[tStacsh]

Giddy up:  exceed a foot?  Haven't had a LES event like this in quite awhile.  I'm in a sweet spot with a W to WSW and sometimes a WNW flow.  Especially this time of year.   

--HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY--     HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE OVER THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH SATURDAY AS   STRONG UPPER JET JET DIVES STRAIGHT SOUTH THROUGH WRN CANADA   ON THE BACK SIDE OF DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH. H8 TEMPS FALL OFF TO   ABOUT -15C BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING   THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.     IDEAL SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD FOR   OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW, WITH THE POLAR JET   WEST AND SOUTH OF MI, DELTA TS AROUND 25C, AND DEEP CYCLONIC   WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO OCCUR WHEN   STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE PASSING THROUGH, WHICH   AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL   LIKELY VARY BETWEEN SW AND NW IN BETWEEN THESE WAVES AND   ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES, NOT TO MENTION ANY LAKE AGGREGATE   IMPACTS ON THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. AS SUCH, EXPECT THE AREAS OF   HEAVIEST SNOW TO SHIFT AROUND SOMEWHAT AND FOCUS ON DIFFERENT   COMMUNITIES FROM DAY TO DAY.     TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE   TO SLIPPERY ROADS AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN   HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. HEAVIEST TOTALS OVER A SEVERAL DAY   PERIOD WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE FOOT FOR SOME AREAS NEAR AND WEST   OF 131. AT TIMES THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL PENETRATE WELL   EASTWARD THROUGH LOWER MI ALONG THE I-96/I-94 CORRIDORS,   PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  

[weatherfan2012]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Had a rain/sleet mix for ~ 20mins upon precip onset thanks to evaporative cooling.

Now a chilly rain with temps hovering in the upper 30s/low 40s.

Cosgrove has been nailing it so far hopefully he continues to be right this winter and it a good one.

[hawkstwelve]

I need to figure out which weather god I pissed off and how to remedy it. Not joking, almost every snowfall map shows a perfect hole right over Minnehaha County. In the below case, I get less than even the rest of the county. I fall squarely in the light gray section near the 0.3 close the IA border. The maps I shared earlier showed snow practically every direction around my county but almost nothing right over it.

Obviously it's just models and they shouldn't be treated as gospel but it's pretty crazy to see this time after time. Maybe there is a micro-climate here that I'm unaware of? I don't know what it is but it's getting pretty funny.

[chescowxman]

Started as sleet rain mix here in the Western burbs of Philly in Chester County but now as temps continue to drop a bit we are seeing some big wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain.

Temp is down to 35.3

[Andie]

6 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Its the literal opposite of la Nina. Kinda weird, right?

And it makes me about have sick.  
This weather is tough on a Texan. 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Giddy up:  exceed a foot?  Haven't had a LES event like this in quite awhile.  I'm in a sweet spot with a W to WSW and sometimes a WNW flow.  Especially this time of year.   

--HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY--     HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE OVER THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH SATURDAY AS   STRONG UPPER JET JET DIVES STRAIGHT SOUTH THROUGH WRN CANADA   ON THE BACK SIDE OF DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH. H8 TEMPS FALL OFF TO   ABOUT -15C BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING   THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.     IDEAL SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD FOR   OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW, WITH THE POLAR JET   WEST AND SOUTH OF MI, DELTA TS AROUND 25C, AND DEEP CYCLONIC   WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO OCCUR WHEN   STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE PASSING THROUGH, WHICH   AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL   LIKELY VARY BETWEEN SW AND NW IN BETWEEN THESE WAVES AND   ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES, NOT TO MENTION ANY LAKE AGGREGATE   IMPACTS ON THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. AS SUCH, EXPECT THE AREAS OF   HEAVIEST SNOW TO SHIFT AROUND SOMEWHAT AND FOCUS ON DIFFERENT   COMMUNITIES FROM DAY TO DAY.     TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE   TO SLIPPERY ROADS AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN   HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. HEAVIEST TOTALS OVER A SEVERAL DAY   PERIOD WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE FOOT FOR SOME AREAS NEAR AND WEST   OF 131. AT TIMES THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL PENETRATE WELL   EASTWARD THROUGH LOWER MI ALONG THE I-96/I-94 CORRIDORS,   PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  

FINALLY!  Hope it delivers beyond what you expect and their forecast. As you said, could models be under-playing the amount of instability that will be created due to the elevated lake temps? WMI isn't really known for that like NEOH and KBUF where they get both huge elevation boosts and lake-fetch convergence. But, every once in a while Lk. Mich will deliver and this is looking like the best chance since 2014 for your region. I'd hazard to say that it's better to be further inland too with the winds and lake warmth taking the good stuff right on over the lakeshore. Best of luck. I can only hope I eventually get something as exciting around here. 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I need to figure out which weather god I pissed off and how to remedy it. Not joking, almost every snowfall map shows a perfect hole right over Minnehaha County. In the below case, I get less than even the rest of the county. I fall squarely in the light gray section near the 0.3 close the IA border. The maps I shared earlier showed snow practically every direction around my county but almost nothing right over it.

Obviously it's just models and they shouldn't be treated as gospel but it's pretty crazy to see this time after time. Maybe there is a micro-climate here that I'm unaware of? I don't know what it is but it's getting pretty funny.

Anywhere near a river? In a lowland area like me? Terrain in SEMI slopes downward from the "ridge" a county N and NW of here to the Detroit river. I will suffer down-sloping anytime there's snow coming from those directions. Last winter I watched twice as really potent squall line (1 even got the formal Squall Warning) was blasting it's way due S right at mby, only to pull a vanishing act as it reached 1/2 a county north of here. 

[Madtown]

12z Euro and 18z GFS from today look pretty darn warm from Thanksgiving on... MJO phase 6 flexing some muscle?

[Grizzcoat]

Hey hawkstwelve-

Was in Sioux Falls over the weekend for my sons cross county meet- nice town!!! Like a smaller DSM, easily could live there.

[Clinton]

Some more light snow showers pushing through here this morning continuing the nice Winter feel.  Clouds look to hang tough today, an Artic front may kick off another quick shot of snow tomorrow.

[westMJim]

With an official snow fall of 3.2” Grand Rapids had its first snowfall of 1” or more for the 2022/23 winter season there was a total of 0.32” of precipitation with that snow fall. The official H/L was 33/28 and there was no sunshine. Here in MBY I have just over one inch of snow on the ground. With clear skies the temperature at the current time is 30 here at my house. For today the average H/L is 47/33 the record high of 68 was recorded way back in 1896 and the record low of 11 was set in 1933. The snow fall record for today is 5.0” set in 2005. Of note there is a winter storm watch out for Thursday thru at least Friday. Hard to tell where the heaver snow fall will be at this time.

 

 

[Tom]

11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

FINALLY!  Hope it delivers beyond what you expect and their forecast. As you said, could models be under-playing the amount of instability that will be created due to the elevated lake temps? WMI isn't really known for that like NEOH and KBUF where they get both huge elevation boosts and lake-fetch convergence. But, every once in a while Lk. Mich will deliver and this is looking like the best chance since 2014 for your region. I'd hazard to say that it's better to be further inland too with the winds and lake warmth taking the good stuff right on over the lakeshore. Best of luck. I can only hope I eventually get something as exciting around here. 

I was going to comment on this and you basically expressed my thoughts to a "T".  Nov '14 redux?  I'd love to be in Buffalo, NY or up near Watertown, NY where there is more lift from the elevation.  I could see 4-5 Feet dumped somewhere in those snow belts.  Good luck! @westMJim @Stacsh

[chescowxman]

We ended up with 0.99" of rain since last evening with 0.11" falling since midnight. We should be clearing out today and getting mostly sunny by late this morning. Today will be the mildest day for a while with temps reaching the upper 40's. The next week will feature temps well below normal for mid to late November and also dry. We should warm back to near normal by Thanksgiving weekend before slipping back a little below normal to end the month of November.

The record high for today is 73 degrees set in 1990. Our record low is just 7 degrees in 1908 - this was the earliest single digit reading in Chester County history. The daily rain record is 2.08" from 1926. The daily snow record is the 1.3" that fell just 4 years ago in 2018.

[Stacsh]

12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

FINALLY!  Hope it delivers beyond what you expect and their forecast. As you said, could models be under-playing the amount of instability that will be created due to the elevated lake temps? WMI isn't really known for that like NEOH and KBUF where they get both huge elevation boosts and lake-fetch convergence. But, every once in a while Lk. Mich will deliver and this is looking like the best chance since 2014 for your region. I'd hazard to say that it's better to be further inland too with the winds and lake warmth taking the good stuff right on over the lakeshore. Best of luck. I can only hope I eventually get something as exciting around here. 

Yep I lived in  Grand haven in 2014 and we didn’t see nearly the snow accumulation that GR received during that week.  I remember driving into to work and shocked at the totals as you got further away from the lake.  

[Tom]

ORD reported its 1st official 1" of snowfall right on the dot (1.0")...glad to see that snow stat is checked off the list.  This weekends PV visit is going to leave a mark over the MW/GL's region and I'm sure we'll be seeing record cold and snow stats smashed!  I still can't believe that my local grid has a string of temps in the low/mid 20's for highs Fri-Sun.  I just got the chills thinking of this!  

Meantime, we are fast approaching the kick off of the Holiday season next week and there is a storm brewing.  I love seeing the trends off the GEFS sniffing out the west-based Greenland Block right around Thanksgiving.  I'll be looking for the southern Low to cut up towards the Lakes/OHV region.  Let's see the models digest the blocking a little better as we head into the weekend.

 

[westMJim]

Temperature is down to 28 here with some frozen fog.

[tStacsh]

Winter storm watch hoisted:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of over 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Along and in between the I-96 and I-94 corridors. * WHEN...From Thursday morning through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant snowfall and reduced visibilities will affect US-131 during this timeframe.

 

Also experimental snowfall forecast are pretty cool.  Gives me a 90% chance of 5" or greater.  16% chance of greater than 8" and that's just through Friday evening.  I'm right on the " just north of GR.  

[Jarod]

27 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Winter storm watch hoisted:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of over 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Along and in between the I-96 and I-94 corridors. * WHEN...From Thursday morning through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant snowfall and reduced visibilities will affect US-131 during this timeframe.

 

Also experimental snowfall forecast are pretty cool.  Gives me a 90% chance of 5" or greater.  16% chance of greater than 8" and that's just through Friday evening.  I'm right on the " just north of GR.  

I think they are being pretty cautious. Every time we get a westerly lake effect event this early in the year it way over-performs wherever the dominant band sets up. I think someone will end up with a foot. If the winds shift around, usually this is somewhere in Zeeland to hudsonville which seems to be where the axis usually is as long as the flow stays somewhat westerly.  Either way this should be a nice early lake effect event for once.