November 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

The GEFS members are jumping on board with a storm on the 30th.  Most are depicting a cutter and I would expect a shift to the SE with the amount of blocking showing up.

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro brings home the bacon for South Dakota. It shows a foot of snow falling in Sioux Falls over the course of just six hours on 11/30. Yes please!

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro brings home the bacon for South Dakota. It shows a foot of snow falling in Sioux Falls over the course of just six hours on 11/30. Yes please!

Good looking cutter for your area on this run.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[hawkstwelve]

Got up to 44 today. Felt downright balmy after the past week.

We went 9 days without highs hitting the freezing mark. The past 12 of 14 days had average temperatures at or below 30. FSD will be running -3 on the month after starting +8 through the first ten days. We've also had nine days in November with at least a trace of snow, topping out at 0.3 on 11/17. 

No big snow numbers like some people (looking at you, Buffalo) but fairly remarkable for the strength and longevity of the cold.

[chescowxman]

We did indeed set a record lowest maximum temperature for today of 32.1 besting the previous record of 33 degrees set back in 1984 (records go back till 1894).

This is the earliest sub freezing day since November 13, 2019 which represented the 2nd earliest sub freezing day in Chester County history behind only November 11, 1987 which is the earliest sub-freezing day on record for the County.

[Niko]

 

[jaster220]

51 minutes ago, Niko said:

 

That scenario happened to the city manager in Sault Saint Marie, MI back in Dec '95 except his door wouldn't go up. When he went back inside his house and looked out the window discovering they'd had 5 foot of snow basically overnight. Nothing like getting that much snow and not even being aware. Buffalo and the entire planet knew a week in advance they'd be getting buried. 

[Niko]

11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That scenario happened to the city manager in Sault Saint Marie, MI back in Dec '95 except his door wouldn't go up. When he went back inside his house and looked out the window discovering they'd had 5 foot of snow basically overnight. Nothing like getting that much snow and not even being aware. Buffalo and the entire planet knew a week in advance they'd be getting buried. 

Can you imagine trying to clean up all of that snow. I mean, where do you start. Unbelievable!!!!

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro brings home the bacon for South Dakota. It shows a foot of snow falling in Sioux Falls over the course of just six hours on 11/30. Yes please!

Not to be a buzz-kill, but not sure how great I'd feel being in the cross hairs 10 days out? Around here, I've been burned getting excited at h48

[Niko]

Nice little thaw (if you will) coming next week. Temps could actually hit 50F for a day or two, b4 getting slightly colder by weeks end.

As far as the Thanksgiving storm goes, it looks like rain will be the dominant precipitation maker here. Time will tell.

[jaster220]

4 minutes ago, Niko said:

Can you imagine trying to clean up all of that snow. I mean, where do you start. Unbelievable!!!!

Front Loader is about the only thing that could really tackle that kind of depth. Sure, you could chip-away at it with lesser equipment but I think I'd just get in line and wait for my number to come up, lol. I remember helping my dad clear our modest 2-lane driveway after the bliz of '79 or maybe it was the April 3rd 1975 storm. One of those. We actually got to borrow a small cheap old snow blower (the snow was really wet and heavy). It couldn't handle just plowing into the roughly 13" depth so we took turns throwing a shovel full in front of it and running over that which it could barely toss. But it sure beat doing all the lifting and tossing by hand. 

[jaster220]

6 minutes ago, Niko said:

Nice little thaw (if you will) coming next week. Temps could actually hit 50F for a day or two, b4 getting slightly colder by weeks end.

As far as the Thanksgiving storm goes, it looks like rain will be the dominant precipitation maker here. Time will tell.

50 gonna feel like a heatwave. I know we just had a similar cold blast and LES event 3 years ago this month, but this seems worse in duration and maybe due to it coming so quickly on the heals of weeks of warm AN temps. Large ponds have iced over even here in the metro. 

[Niko]

9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

50 gonna feel like a heatwave. I know we just had a similar cold blast and LES event 3 years ago this month, but this seems worse in duration and maybe due to it coming so quickly on the heals of weeks of warm AN temps. Large ponds have iced over even here in the metro. 

Break out the shorts, right. I bet you that temps go even higher than 50F. Any snow we have otg will be gone by Tuesday.

Also,  I bet the ground has gotten a lot colder now too. No more warm surface.

[Tom]

This is about as good as it gets out here in the "Valley of the Sun"...we will be immersed in abundant sunshine this Thanksgiving Holiday week as travelers from across the country will be flying in for delightful weather.  Talk about perfect timing...mid 70's and sunny skies...sign me up!

 

 

[Tom]

The models in the LR are not to be trusted and will cave towards the -NAO block that will lock as we open up the 1st month of MET Winter.  Get'r ready for some interesting runs today and throughout this holiday week.  Don't Fret, bc I'll Bet the NE PAC/Alaskan Ridge will Fire up and unload the cold into the lower 48.  I am intrigued by this D10 10mb pattern off the EURO bc it exemplifies what happened in OCT.  #SplitFlow #STJ

 

[westMJim]

The snow event of November 2022 is now over and at Grand Rapids it was sure a record setting event. With 6 days in a row of snow fall. The total for the 6 days was 27.6” That in its self is good for the 2^nd snowiest November at Grand Rapids. The total snow fall of 28.0” is the new 2^nd most for any November.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 27/18. There was 0.7” of snow fall. At 7 AM yesterday there was 10” of snow on the ground at GRR. Here in MBY the temperature fell to 18 before midnight but rose to 21 after midnight and that was the overnight low here. At the current time it is 23 and partly cloudy. For today the average H/L is 45/31 the record high of 70 was set in 1913 and the record low of 10 was set in 2014 the record snow fall amount of 4.0” was set way back in 1896. I now have 8” of snow on the ground. With melting taking place from the bottom for the warm ground and the sun from the top the snow depth will drop over the next couple of days and most should be gone by the weekend.

[chescowxman]

We almost set a new record low this morning...but just missed with a low here in East Nantmeal of 18.7 (17.0 record from 1951) After a couple more below normal temperature days we should see a return to normal temps by Wednesday and lasting right through the holiday weekend. Average high temps for the last week of November are around 50 degrees.

The record high for today is 76 degrees set back in 1900. The record low is 17.0 from 1951. The daily rain mark is 2.29" from 1952 and our record daily snowfall is 1.5" from 2008.

[Clinton]

6z Euro developing a pocket of snow over Kansas and Oklahoma Thanksgiving night.

 

[luminen]

On 11/14/2022 at 8:19 PM, jaster220 said:

Where exactly are you man?? 

On a cold, windy af island in the Canadian Maritimes.

Had some accumulating snow since my last post but it melted. Been pretty cold recently but not much available precip for some reason. We're getting there!

[gimmesnow]

December like 2022 for southern Wisconsin? YES PLEASE!

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

December like 2022 for southern Wisconsin? YES PLEASE!

Do you mean like 2000?? I think we'd all sign-up for that. Max bliz total was 20" just a bit west of here. 

[Madtown]

988 on the 12z Euro...come on blocking 

[Niko]

Gorgeous outside. Temp is at 46F w abundant of sunshine. Its a little windy, but no biggie. 

[tStacsh]

22.5" inches of snow is being eviscerated by upper 30's.  Down to 5.5"

[tStacsh]

Surprisingly enough, GR set a record for 3 consecutive days with at least 7" of snowfall.   

[hawkstwelve]

Me after seeing the 00z EPS control run showing almost 15 inches of snow here: Well, can't get much better than that!

Me after seeing the 12z EPS control run: 

 

[bud2380]

Long ways off, but starting to see some run to run consistency of a storm in the day 8ish time frame.  Definitely continue to keep watching.  

 

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, tStacsh said:

22.5" inches of snow is being eviscerated by upper 30's.  Down to 5.5"

Surprised how much survived our 45F and sunny afternoon. Our soil temps had a chance to cool prior to any real snow falling Sat after dark. 

[OKwx2k4]

13 hours ago, westMJim said:

The snow event of November 2022 is now over and at Grand Rapids it was sure a record setting event. With 6 days in a row of snow fall. The total for the 6 days was 27.6” That in its self is good for the 2^nd snowiest November at Grand Rapids. The total snow fall of 28.0” is the new 2^nd most for any November.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 27/18. There was 0.7” of snow fall. At 7 AM yesterday there was 10” of snow on the ground at GRR. Here in MBY the temperature fell to 18 before midnight but rose to 21 after midnight and that was the overnight low here. At the current time it is 23 and partly cloudy. For today the average H/L is 45/31 the record high of 70 was set in 1913 and the record low of 10 was set in 2014 the record snow fall amount of 4.0” was set way back in 1896. I now have 8” of snow on the ground. With melting taking place from the bottom for the warm ground and the sun from the top the snow depth will drop over the next couple of days and most should be gone by the weekend.

That was a pretty special November run! Hope you enjoyed it.

[Clinton]

Models are coming into an agreement on a nice rain this Saturday with a storm coming out of the SW.  Pretty cool how it comes together and brings the comma head of the storm through my area.  Big rains for Oklahoma the hot spot for precipitation this season. 

 

[Clinton]

I'll be going for a high of 56 today as temps climb above normal.  Quite the streak of cold weather most of us just experienced.

NWSKansasCity

 

Well, today we finally broke the streak of 10 consecutive days of below normal temperatures where we averaged 13 degrees below normal through that stretch and it was the 2nd coldest Nov 11th-20th on record!

[Tom]

43 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'll be going for a high of 56 today as temps climb above normal.  Quite the streak of cold weather most of us just experienced.

NWSKansasCity

 

Well, today we finally broke the streak of 10 consecutive days of below normal temperatures where we averaged 13 degrees below normal through that stretch and it was the 2nd coldest Nov 11th-20th on record!

It's crazy how much the models have waffled with this system...due to it being cut-off from the main flow it always wrecks havoc in the modeling, esp with the blocking developing over the top of the system.  Should we start a storm thread?  TX Panhandle Cutter??  Another formidable system in the center of the Nation right where the LRC Hot Spot has been setting up Shop.

[Tom]

The remarkable trends in the past 10 runs off the 0z GEFS...

[Clinton]

40 minutes ago, Tom said:

It's crazy how much the models have waffled with this system...due to it being cut-off from the main flow it always wrecks havoc in the modeling, esp with the blocking developing over the top of the system.  Should we start a storm thread?  TX Panhandle Cutter??  Another formidable system in the center of the Nation right where the LRC Hot Spot has been setting up Shop.

Yes please if you wouldn't mind.  I have a crazy day ahead.

[westMJim]

Yesterday, with 91% of possible sunshine and a high of 40 and a low of 22 seen a good amount of snow melt. The day officially started with 7” on the ground at Grand Rapids. There was no precipitation and no snow fall. Here in MBY the overnight low was 16 it is now up to 21 here. For today the average H/L is 44/31 the record high of 66 was recorded in 1913 and the record low of 13 was set in 1929. The record snow fall for today is 7.0” in 1985 there was 6.8” in 1945. The next week or so looks to be more typical of late November with highs in the upper 30’s and low to mid 40’s the snow on the ground here should be mostly gone by the weekend.

 

[Madtown]

Looks pretty melty up here...stop it!

[chescowxman]

A nice couple days through Thanksgiving. Temps moderating to near normal. Some rain possible later Friday into Saturday AM. More rain looks to arrive by Sunday AM - Sunday now looks like the wetter of the 2 days.

Our record high for today is 72 degrees from 1931. The record low is 13 degrees from 1964. Daily rain record is the 1.86" that fell in 1991. The daily snow record is the 1.7" that fell back in 1989.

[tStacsh]

Lot's of systems, just not much cold air.  Hopefully the pattern continues into December and turns these rainers into snowstorms.  

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Lot's of systems, just not much cold air.  Hopefully the pattern continues into December and turns these rainers into snowstorms.  

In a Nina, it's all about the amount/timing of cold air.

[james1976]

End of the month storm is still showing up. GFS tracks the low through IA.

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

In a Nina, it's all about the amount/timing of cold air.

Yep, lot's of storms out there, but they all look like hard cutters right now.  Need good timing this early winter.  Might need to get closer to the Holidays before we get some consistent winter conditions.  I'm predicting a big dog this year because I never predict big dogs.  So now that I do it will come true.  Around the New Year.  

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS has snow for my are on Black Friday! 4 days with snow in November? What madness is this?

[Clinton]

5 hours ago, james1976 said:

End of the month storm is still showing up. GFS tracks the low through IA.

I have a feeling you and @hawkstwelve are going to get hammered by this one.  Models are struggling but the LRC suggest a strong storm.

[Hoosier]

I'd watch that end of the month system for a potential severe thunderstorm threat... assuming it evolves roughly as current models depict.  How far north a severe threat would get is debatable as moisture/instability are usually hard to come by at this time of year with northward extent, but it's something to keep an eye on.  If we have a rapidly deepening system, then it will probably find a way to produce some severe wx (at least damaging winds) even where CAPE is meager.

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd watch that end of the month system for a potential severe thunderstorm threat... assuming it evolves roughly as current models depict.  How far north a severe threat would get is debatable as moisture/instability are usually hard to come by at this time of year with northward extent, but it's something to keep an eye on.  If we have a rapidly deepening system, then it will probably find a way to produce some severe wx (at least damaging winds) even where CAPE is meager.

Completely agree and we are getting to the 7 day range where the models suck just a little bit less.  The ICON tonight is really digging this storm south with the blocking setting up. I think the other models will eventually do the same.  I would love to see Nebraska get some moisture and a big snow.

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Completely agree and we are getting to the 7 day range where the models suck just a little bit less.  The ICON tonight is really digging this storm south with the blocking setting up. I think the other models will eventually do the same.  I would love to see Nebraska get some moisture and a big snow.

Yeah they need it.  I can't believe how much of the country is in drought.

[Hoosier]

I ran some numbers for Chicago O'Hare for the period from 11/11-11/20 of this year.  I figured it was one of the coldest such periods (because it sure felt like it) but turns out it was "only" 15th coldest.  2014 was actually the coldest 11/11-11/20 on record.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I ran some numbers for Chicago O'Hare for the period from 11/11-11/20 of this year.  I figured it was one of the coldest such periods (because it sure felt like it) but turns out it was "only" 15th coldest.  2014 was actually the coldest 11/11-11/20 on record.

Did the same thing for Detroit, and they came in 17th.

[hawkstwelve]

00z GFS looking quite a bit snowier than previous runs for the northern states with that system on the 30th. I have a feeling the stronger solutions will win out over the ones showing a weaker system. Some folks could get nailed depending on the track. It'll be fun to track over the next week.