November 2022 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

21 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Could get pretty snowy.

Working on a project with a guy from Mexico. Not only his first time in America, but his fortunately timed visit to The Mitt meant that he got to see snow falling 4 days in a row. The first he'd ever seen in his 38 years of life. 

[jaster220]

DTX:

Attention then turns to the closed low that was orphaned over the
Desert Southwest by the aforementioned trough dropping into the
Great Lakes. Southern stream begins to phase with the northern
stream late Saturday leading to cyclogensis over the southern
Plains. Mid-range models continue to show good consensus on this
upper trough/associated surface low sliding northeast into the Ohio
Valley and southern Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. Initial edge of
isentropic ascent reaches the state line between 06-09Z Sunday
before expanding over the remainder of SE MI by midday. Nearly
vertically stacked low center looks to track near or directly over
the area latter half of Sunday supporting moderate widespread rain
showers through the evening hours.

Don't see that too often. Lends some credence to the NAM's snowier portrayal. 

[jaster220]

Look at Charlevoix. Nothing like starting your Thanksgiving morning with 15" OTG! This is really anomalous as that quaint tourist town is right on the water and typically only gets deeper snowpack later in winter. This is one place where last week's LES didn't skip over the shoreline. 

[Tom]

Happy Black Friday!  The Holiday season is upon us and the most wonderful time of the year is here!  Hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving.  I have so much leftovers that will prob last me a week or more.  Gotta tell ya, the Turkey this year came out great.  It was probably the best Turkey I made...so juicy, tender and delicious.  The 19 pounder will feed me for daysss!

Ok, now back to the weather...as we near the start of Met Winter, Ol' Man Winter is reminding us that he is lurking and making a comeback after a bit of a reprieve.  I would imagine it is well timed for many of you and allow pleasant weather to put up the holiday lights.  I think we should fire up a storm thread later today after the 12z runs for the late month storm.

On a side note, there is a World Cup match today USA vs UK....Go USA!  

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Happy Black Friday!  The Holiday season is upon us and the most wonderful time of the year is here!  Hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving.  I have so much leftovers that will prob last me a week or more.  Gotta tell ya, the Turkey this year came out great.  It was probably the best Turkey I made...so juicy, tender and delicious.  The 19 pounder will feed me for daysss!

Ok, now back to the weather...as we near the start of Met Winter, Ol' Man Winter is reminding us that he is lurking and making a comeback after a bit of a reprieve.  I would imagine it is well timed for many of you and allow pleasant weather to put up the holiday lights.  I think we should fire up a storm thread later today after the 12z runs for the late month storm.

On a side note, there is a World Cup match today USA vs UK....Go USA!  

I agree that a thread will be needed later today.  I am much more in camp Euro than the GFS right now and I wouldn't be surprised to see a little slower and stronger solution show up soon.   What's your thought on this one?

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I agree that a thread will be needed later today.  I am much more in camp Euro than the GFS right now and I wouldn't be surprised to see a little slower and stronger solution show up soon.   What's your thought on this one?

My thoughts are that the lead wave up in S Canada will allow for enough separation of the CO Low to eject out and rapidly deepen as it cuts NNE towards the W GL's.  The southern energy in this years pattern has manifested almost every time to be the strongest player.  I like the set up from @hawkstwelveup through MSP into @Madtown back yard.  Let nature fill up the snow holes bc what is coming after that is what I'm yearning for as the Arctic cold will bleed south 1st week of DEC.

[Clinton]

10 minutes ago, Tom said:

My thoughts are that the lead wave up in S Canada will allow for enough separation of the CO Low to eject out and rapidly deepen as it cuts NNE towards the W GL's.  The southern energy in this years pattern has manifested almost every time to be the strongest player.  I like the set up from @hawkstwelveup through MSP into @Madtown back yard.  Let nature fill up the snow holes bc what is coming after that is what I'm yearning for as the Arctic cold will bleed south 1st week of DEC.

Agree and happy day 1 of cycle 2!

[Clinton]

In regards to the storm at the end of the month the ICON may be about to lead the way again, it's happened several times this season.  I still think this storm will get blocked up and spin around the US/Canadian boarder for a few days as a bit of a Hudson Bay block forms.  If this happens it will unload some artic air into the US and send some disturbances rotating around it.  Lets see if the 2 pieces of energy phase and kinda stall out, 12z runs could be interesting.

 

[westMJim]

Welcome to Black Friday. I am not sure just when it started being called Black Friday. When I was young if I recall it was called the day after Thanksgiving Day sales. And it was the night that the city of Bay City lite the city Christmas tree. Yesterday was a rather mild day and the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 46/30 there was a trace of rain fall and we had 42% of possible sunshine. The day started with a reported official 2” of snow on the ground. The overnight low here in MBY is the current reading of 38 I had a trace of rain fall overnight and there is just a trace of snow on the ground now (a lot of snow piles are still left) For today the average H/L is 43/30 the record high of 65 was set in 1908 and the record low of -10 was set in 1950 that -10 is also the record lowest reading for any day in November at Grand Rapids. The record snow fall amount of 3.5” fell in 2005. The rest of the weekend looks to be on the mild side before cooling down a little on Monday.

 

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Now the GEM, the one who has been steadfast in a stronger storm, moves to a more southern and weaker solution.

Oh for Pete's peppers...

Now you get my frustrations with the models, especially outside of 120 hrs. They're too much of "follow the bouncing ball" treatment to give any real enjoyment. Get things narrowed down to a pseudo consensus and I'll start tuning in at that point. Talking storms affecting The Mitt. I don't follow/post much on systems not affecting home turf. 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

My thoughts are that the lead wave up in S Canada will allow for enough separation of the CO Low to eject out and rapidly deepen as it cuts NNE towards the W GL's.  The southern energy in this years pattern has manifested almost every time to be the strongest player.  I like the set up from @hawkstwelveup through MSP into @Madtown back yard.  Let nature fill up the snow holes bc what is coming after that is what I'm yearning for as the Arctic cold will bleed south 1st week of DEC.

I see that as another very positive feature of this year's pattern. And I think the models have struggled with it, always wanting to blow-up the N stream system too much. Which, tbh is what happens in most years/situations like this. This is more like the 1 in 4 odds of the opposite outcome trending. Also like how this Cut-off is not totally falling apart as it comes our way. If it should repeat later in winter it should be a doozy for many in here. Will never include mby in that statement. More often than not, Wayne Cnty gets the shaft on strong S stream storms. Bowling balls deliver the goods here in NW metro Detroit, (with the rare exception of the Super Storm back in 1800's). GHD-2, Jan '05, '94, Dec '74 all prime examples. I will retract a bit and acknowledge at least one S stream phased storm that slammed the metro with a 10" thumping back in Jan '92, and there was the OHV bomb in Feb '65 that also delivered here. Odds are probably split on any given Big Dog working out here. Jan 31, 1982 bliz did favor far SEMI. That winter the track was perfect here in Dec and Feb, with a lull in January.  

[jaster220]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I don't know. Maybe I'm weird but I enjoy seeing the model's wiffles and waffles, trying to discern a trend, and seeing outlandish solutions that drop feet of snow. It's all part of the weather game and those pepto colors keep me coming back to play.

Gambling addiction? I could go to a casino and roll dice for that, lol. As posted before, the worst is when they flash run-after-run showing a massive hit, and you end up with a couple inches. Hard pass on that! 

[chescowxman]

We picked up a little light rain with 0.06" in the bucket this morning. We should see skies start to clear with the winds getting a bit gusty out of the WNW. Temps should peak around 50 degrees by early afternoon and that start to slowly fall. Temps tonight should fall to just above freezing except maybe 32 degrees in some of the higher spots in Western Chester County. Beautiful day tomorrow with temps struggling to escape the 40's (normal high for tomorrow is 50 degrees). Rain should start again by late Sunday morning and last into the evening. We could pick up up to 3/4" of rain. The rest of the last week of November and into December looks to see temps right around normal with more rain chances on Wednesday.

The record high for today is 74 degrees back in 1979. The record low is 12 degrees set in 1938. Record rainfall was the 2.11" from 1964. Our record daily snowfall was the 6.0" that fell today also back in 1938.

[bud2380]

UK model for this system

 

[Niko]

In NYC for the holiday weekend. Temps are cold at nite but mild (50s) during the day. Fired up the firepit last night w/ wine and cheese w/crackers. 

Looked real quick at the extended and saw a storm on the 30th of the month. Possible a rain/snow mix for back home. 

[Black Hole]

Checking back in, I've been busy for a while. Looks like a nice rain event here tomorrow. Looking for 1/2-1"! 

[Clinton]

I think the Canadian is on the right track with the storm next week.  It has a dominate southern piece and develops a new low over western Michigan.

[westMJim]

22 hours ago, Clinton said:

If this happens it will unload some artic air into the US and send some disturbances rotating around it.  Lets see if the 2 pieces of energy phase and kinda stall out, 12z runs could be interesting.

We shall see 

[westMJim]

Good morning. With 76% of possible sunshine and a H/L of 48/32 yesterday was a great late November day here in west Michigan. There was no rain or snow fall and the day started with just a trace of snow on the ground. The overnight low so far here in MBY with clear skies is the current temperature of 26. The official low at GRR was a much warmer 31 and the current reading at GRR is also much warmer at 37. For today the average H/L is 43/30 the record high of 65 was set way back in 1896 and the record low of +3 was set in 1949. The record snow fall for today is 5.7” set in 1972.

 

[Tom]

Fired up a storm thread for early next week...

 

[chescowxman]

A nice day today to get out there a get those Christmas decorations up. Sunny skies with temps slightly above normal in the low 50's. Rain tomorrow by late morning and lasting till Sunday evening. Chillier Monday and Tuesday with more rain chances on Wednesday before a turn to below normal temps by Thursday.

The record high for today is 70 degrees set way back in 1896. The record low is also the coldest reading for the month of November at just 5 above zero set today back in 1938. The record rain is 1.52" from 1944 and our record daily snow occurred just 8 years ago with the 5.3" of snow that fell in 2014.

[Iceresistance]

DFW is now above normal for rainfall! @Andie

[westMJim]

MICHIGAN WINS!!!!!!! 45 to 23 over Ohio St.

[Iceresistance]

I got 1.35 inches of rain. More still coming. 

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a very impressive late November day with 98% of possible sunshine a H/L of 54/31. There was no rain or snow fall and the snow is all gone except for the snow piles, there is still some in the woods but that is it. And of course, there was that big Michigan win over Ohio State. For today the average H/L is 42/29 the record high of 65 was recorded in 1909 and 1990 the record low of 5 was recorded in 1977. The largest snow fall of 3.8” was recorded in 1952.  The rain has now started here with a temperature of 37.

[Tom]

This is the coldest morning of the season here in the Valley of the Sun.  Many local reporting stations have dipped into the mid 30's!  My area has dipped down to a chilly 37F and I felt every bit of the "chill"...Brrr!   As I went out on the deck, I stared out into the night sky and saw the Big Dipper along with the other Stars and planets.  I love it out here bc back home I don't see as many stars due to the city lights.  In fact, it seemed like every night when I would spend time at the pool I could look up and see several satellites traversing the night sky.  Pretty awesome.

 

 

[chescowxman]

Rain looks to overspread the county from SW to NE over the next couple of hours. Rain should fall much of the day before ending this evening. The active weather pattern looks to continue this week with more rain chances on Wednesday and again next Saturday. Temperature wise we will average above normal today and Wednesday but below normal all of the rest of the days this week.

The record high for today is 73 degrees from 1896. Our record low is 13 degrees from 1932. The daily rain record is 1.52" from 1944. The snow record is the 4.5" of wet snow that fell 10 years ago today back in 2012.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

This is the coldest morning of the season here in the Valley of the Sun.  Many local reporting stations have dipped into the mid 30's!  My area has dipped down to a chilly 37F and I felt every bit of the "chill"...Brrr!   As I went out on the deck, I stared out into the night sky and saw the Big Dipper along with the other Stars and planets.  I love it out here bc back home I don't see as many stars due to the city lights.  In fact, it seemed like every night when I would spend time at the pool I could look up and see several satellites traversing the night sky.  Pretty awesome.

 

 

After last week's arctic blast, 50's and sun has even older folks in shorts w/o jacket up here. A week ago Saturday was horrid BN. Just brutal.

[CentralNebWeather]

Information on the long term drought. 10-20” precipitation deficits. Not good. 

 

[Andie]

Is it just me or is this drought just moving about the continent? 
Texas had it awhile, now it’s migrated north.  

[westMJim]

Yesterday was not as nice as the 4 days before it. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 44/36 there was 0.25” of rain fall there was no snow and no sunshine. There is no snow on the ground but there are still snow piles around. The overnight low here in MBY so far is 33 and that is the current temperature. The official low so and current temperature at GRR is 36. For today the average H/L is 42/29 the record high of 67 was way back in 1905. The record low of 5 was set in 1969. The record snow fall for today is 7.9” in 1965.

The next several days look to have a up and down pattern. With only light rain and a chance of some but not much snow. For the most part temperatures look to be average to above average.

 

[tStacsh]

Yeah there is a battle going on between fall and winter and fall is winning for now...  Not excited about some snow showers Wednesday.  The next series of storms look to go well north with basically cold fronts and rebounding temps after a day of cold.  On to the second week of December to look for signs of winter starting.   

[chescowxman]

We picked up 0.51" of rain yesterday. A cold front crossed the county this morning and we have already seen our high temperature for today at 51.0 at 3:10am. Temps have slowly fallen since sunrise and should steady off in the mid to upper 40's for the rest of today before falling below freezing by tomorrow morning. Shower chances increase again on Wednesday - it will also be our warmest day of the week with temps in the mid-50's. A return to below normal temps will close out the week.

The record high for today is 68.5 from 2011. Our record low is 13.0 set in 1955. The daily rain record is 2.01" from 1993. Record snow is the 2.4" that fell back in 1917.

[Clinton]

A couple of nice days before the strong cold front blows through Wednesday.  

[jaster220]

22 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Information on the long term drought. 10-20” precipitation deficits. Not good. 

 

Send a Thank You card to HAARP

[Clinton]

Some interesting tweets from EAX.  Not sure how much if anything this has to do with weather for us but it seems like it might be a big deal.

 

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

A volcanic eruption at Mauna Loa summit at Moku‘āweoweo began overnight. For updates, give

@USGSVolcanoes

a follow! While we don't deal directly with volcanoes, ash from eruptions can affect our weather depending on magnitude of eruption, proximity, & upper-level wind patterns.

Did we mention this is the LARGEST active volcano in the WORLD, and this is the first time it has erupted in nearly 40 years!

 

[chescowxman]

Lows this morning were in the frosty upper 20's in the lower spots across the valley with low 30's on the higher ridges. A nice day on tap with temps a little below normal highs for today. Tomorrow looks quite stormy as our active weather pattern continues. Warm with showers and very windy tomorrow with some wind gusts of up to 40 mph possible. Much colder again by Thursday and Friday with below normal temps. There is a small chance of showers on Saturday with maybe some wintry mixed precipitation by Sunday evening across the County.

The record high for today is 68 degrees set back in 1991. Our record low is the 10 degree reading from 1930. Daily rain record is 2.84" from 1987. Daily snow record is 3.7" from 1995.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a typical late November day with an official H/L of 43/32. There was no rain or snow fall and just 8% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here at my house was 37 the official overnight low was 35. For today the average H/L is now down to 41/29 the record high of 65 was in 1998 and the record low of 6 was in 1929. The record snow fall for today is 4.5” in 1960. The rest of this week there will be a brief cool down before temperatures rebound to near average.

 

[westMJim]

13 hours ago, Clinton said:

Not sure how much if anything this has to do with weather for us but it seems like it might be a big deal.

That eruption will not have any impact on our weather. The ones that would have any impact would be the major exploding ones that send ash thousands of feet into the air.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Ending this month just under an inch below normal for precip. Total so far this year is 8.60 inches below normal and we've only had 2 out of 11 months with above normal precip this year.

[jaster220]

Less than a 48 hr interlude between rain drops. WHAT is this madness?!?

[Clinton]

Nice looking glacier has formed, I would think this will help jump start our Winter.

Snow Extent in the Northern Hemisphere now Among the Highest in 56 years Increases the Likelihood of Cold Early Winter Forecast both in North America and Europe

[Hoosier]

18 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Nice looking glacier has formed, I would think this will help jump start our Winter.

Snow Extent in the Northern Hemisphere now Among the Highest in 56 years Increases the Likelihood of Cold Early Winter Forecast both in North America and Europe

I wonder which year is the 56 year max?

[Clinton]

It's almost 30 degrees colder here than it was yesterday at this time, currently it's 21 with a WC of 12.  This mornings GFS is starting to sniff out our next storm of interest around the 12th.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was yet another day of well above average temperatures with an official H/L of 54/35 there was 0.28” of rain fall and no snow fall the ground has no snow cover. There was 21% of possible sunshine. For today the high for the day has already been reached at 52 and the current temperature here in MBY is 31. The average H/L for today is 41/29. The record high of 64 was set in 1998 the record low of 6 was in 1958. The record snow fall amount of 6.8” was set in 1940.

[chescowxman]

Light rain is already moving in from SW to NE across Chester County this morning. Showers should be on the increase along with winds gusting to possibly as high as 45mph today. Warm temps today with mid-50's likely. Clearing and much colder tonight with lows in the upper 20's. Our roller coaster of temps will continue with warmer temps again Saturday with more shower chances before colder on Sunday. It looks increasingly likely that a major pattern change is under way with pretty consistent below normal temperatures starting by the middle of next week.

The record high for today is 72 degrees set back in 1933. Our record low is 9 degrees from 1976. The daily rain record is 2.51" from 2020. Record daily snow was the 6.0" that fell today back in 1967.

[jaster220]

22 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I wonder which year is the 56 year max?

For this period on the graph, its us baby 2022!

[chescowxman]

We ended November with an average temperature of 47.1 - this is 3.1 degrees above normal. Through the first 13 days of November we were 10.8 degrees above normal so quite the shift for the 2nd half of the month. This was the 16th warmest November since records began back in 1894. So far in 2022 we have had 6 months with above normal temps and 5 months with below normal temps.

Looking ahead the last well above normal temperature day looks to be on Saturday...otherwise the well advertised change to colder looks likely through at least mid-December.

The record high for today is 70.9 from 2006. The record low is 7 degrees above zero from 1967. Daily rain record is the 1.80" from 1996. Daily snow record is the 0.5" that fell in 1907.