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November 2022 Observations and Discussion


Clinton

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New daily snow fall records have already been set at Buffalo and Grand Rapids. With the 5 PM weather reports Buffalo set a new record for November 19th with 16.1” of snow fall. They now have had a total this November of 31.5” of snow fall and now have 24” on the ground at the airport. At Grand Rapids the new record here for the date is 7.4” So far this November 26.0” of snow has fallen. And there is now 10”on the ground as these are the 5PM reports both locations could see more snow today yet. Here in my yard, I now have 12.4” on the ground.

To show just how localize lake effect can be at Muskegon they only have had 0.1” reported today and just 6.0” for November so far. And just 3” on the ground. Some other locations around Michigan at Detroit as of 5PM they have reported no snow fall and for the month of November so far just 0.7”. Up at Sault Ste Marie they only had 1” today as of 5PM and for November so far just 1.1” and at Marquette they have had just 17.9” so far this November and just have 6” on the ground. I am sure that will change at both locations as we head deeper into the winter season.

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3 hours ago, Maxim_Ru said:

Good day! I'm from Russia. 

But interstingly to find out about the North-American climate. A lot of different weather pattern very much for me to observate. Also I've been learning English for a couple years. Reading your posts I will improve my skiils of lang.

Comparing weather in our spot(nearly Moscow) and US and Canada I apeared a thought that how more opportunities to see nice weather here.

I probable speak worse then it would like me. 

Welcome!  What part of the country do you live in the US? 

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro Control went a little snowier for the Thanksgiving storm than the operational.  You Michigan peeps better start sharing the snow. 🙂

1669615200-xq3eeJhxg1Y.png

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What? You want my 0.6" 😆

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Insane snow in NY, heard some broke 24 hour snow records!

I'm assuming that was an annual record broken? Folks haven't had their turkeys yet..

Meanwhile, only gotten a couple of traces in Ashland. I bet at the end of the month we get our first measurable snow.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 31
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 

Severe storms: 2
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Frigid nite taking shape. Lows will bottom out in the upper single digits in spots and lower teens .

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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11 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Insane snow in NY, heard some broke 24 hour snow records!

I'm assuming that was an annual record broken? Folks haven't had their turkeys yet..

Meanwhile, only gotten a couple of traces in Ashland. I bet at the end of the month we get our first measurable snow.

Crazy amounts of snowfall in Buffalo. Everything is bury there. More snow heading there w/ another foot tanite and into tomorrow morning b4 the snow finally tapers off. I saw pics that I have never seen. Tremendous amounts of snow.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Not sure if posted here, saw Firsthand Weather on facebook post this yesterday. Orchard Park NY.

315588325_5621566711213367_7698667560602096409_n.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 31
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 

Severe storms: 2
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Not sure if posted here, saw Firsthand Weather on facebook post this yesterday. Orchard Park NY.

315588325_5621566711213367_7698667560602096409_n.jpg

Hope that roof doesn't collapse from all that weight from the snow. Somebody better get up there soon.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Still learning about Lake Effect Snow. I for sure would not be the guy to ask for a snowfall forecast in that area. Didn't know it could be dry in nature (my newbie brain thought that by lakes supplying more moisture therefore = wetter, lol).

The 20:1 ratios explain some of the really high amounts. I have on a rare occasion seen a 20:1 ratio in Klamath Falls but the average was more around 12 or so. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 31
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 

Severe storms: 2
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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8 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Still learning about Lake Effect Snow. I for sure would not be the guy to ask for a snowfall forecast in that area. Didn't know it could be dry in nature (my newbie brain thought that by lakes supplying more moisture therefore = wetter, lol).

The 20:1 ratios explain some of the really high amounts. I have on a rare occasion seen a 20:1 ratio in Klamath Falls but the average was more around 12 or so. 

The ratio's can get as high as 30:1 and the snow is practically translucent and you can see through it.  It's super easy to shovel, but the downside is it settles rapidly and within a few hours you can see the difference.  In the beginning of the snow season, I'd rather get a wetter (10:1) snow to build a dense foundation.  It's fascinating how the Lakes can fire up such intense snowfall rates and produce lighting and thunder at the same time.  I've experienced on occasion snow ratios as high as 35:1 when cold "clippers" track through the region.  It's the best when they pass on by when you already have a snow pack and lay down a new layer of snow.  Waking up to the morning sun rays producing a "twinkle" off the snow brings a smile to your face!

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A new snow fall record was set at Grand Rapids yesterday with 8.7” of snow fall. The official H/L yesterday was 25/18 there was 0.44” of precipitation all in the form of snow. A reported 3% of sunshine. The official snow depth is 10” So far this morning the low here in MBY was 18 and at the current time there is some light snow falling and it is 19. With a total of 27.3” November 2022 is now the 2nd snowiest November at Grand Rapids. The record for November is 31.0” in 2014. For today the average H/L is 45/31 the record high of 71 was set in 1930 and the record low of 13 was set in 1969 the record snow fall of 11.5” was set in 2000.

There has been much more snow fall at Grand Rapids than at Muskegon and Lansing. Yesterday at Lansing there was 4.9” of snow fall that is just below the record of 5.0” in 1895. And there is 5” on the ground there. At Muskegon just 0.2” of snow fall was reported and there is just 3” on the ground there.

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5 minutes ago, westMJim said:

A new snow fall record was set at Grand Rapids yesterday with 8.7” of snow fall. The official H/L yesterday was 25/18 there was 0.44” of precipitation all in the form of snow. A reported 3% of sunshine. The official snow depth is 10” So far this morning the low here in MBY was 18 and at the current time there is some light snow falling and it is 19. With a total of 27.3” November 2022 is now the 2nd snowiest November at Grand Rapids. The record for November is 31.0” in 2014. For today the average H/L is 45/31 the record high of 71 was set in 1930 and the record low of 13 was set in 1969 the record snow fall of 11.5” was set in 2000.

There has been much more snow fall at Grand Rapids than at Muskegon and Lansing. Yesterday at Lansing there was 4.9” of snow fall that is just below the record of 5.0” in 1895. And there is 5” on the ground there. At Muskegon just 0.2” of snow fall was reported and there is just 3” on the ground there.

It must look like the heart of winter for you guys in the lake belts!  Enjoy the early onslaught of Ol' Man Winter...take a lot pics!

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8 minutes ago, Tom said:

It's super easy to shovel, but the downside is it settles rapidly and within a few hours you can see the difference.  In the beginning of the snow season, I'd rather get a wetter (10:1) snow

The current snow event has had some of the wettest lake effect I have seen. Yesterdays snow was more typical of Lake effect than the 1st two days. The ground is still very warm and there is a lot of melting from the bottom of the snow pack. In the last 3 days there has been a total of 23.3" of snow fall but the official depth at the airport is only 10" and here in my yard just over 11"

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It's cold back home, but out here we are warming up into the mid/upper 70's by Thanksgiving and next weekend!  Gonna enjoy every bit of it before I head back home.  Interesting factoid, ORD has reported at least a Trace of snow the past 5 consecutive days.  If that doesn't justify a fast start to winter, then I'm not sure what does.  Enjoy the warmer temps around the holiday.

 

 

Screen Shot 2022-11-20 at 4.33.52 AM.png

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The wind was roaring loudly early this AM. All the curbside leaf piles have been obliterated. :lol:

We had radiated down to 27°F before the front came in ~ 2AM and mixed things out, temp spiked into the upper 30s while dews crashed into the single digits. Now CAA dropping temps below freezing again as of 920AM.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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I think the GFS is incorrect with how it cuts off that trough in the SW US. Euro/EPS and CMC look nothing like that.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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41 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The AO and NAO keep going deeper negative and I think the 0z Euro is digesting it better than the GFS.  Lets block it up!

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Lock this in Clinton! Let's Go! 

Big game tonight, Chiefs without a few weapons, but they have the biggest weapon, Patrick Mahomes. 

Have you noticed that the Chiefs play better on the road? They have scored 40+ points 3 times this year on the road. At home, every game is close. Anyhow, Chargers are tough but they are banged up too. Chargers need this win or they fall back 3 games.  

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2 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Lock this in Clinton! Let's Go! 

Big game tonight, Chiefs without a few weapons, but they have the biggest weapon, Patrick Mahomes. 

Have you noticed that the Chiefs play better on the road? They have scored 40+ points 3 times this year on the road. At home, every game is close. Anyhow, Chargers are tough but they are banged up too. Chargers need this win or they fall back 3 games.  

Yes and I wish they could look as focused at home as they do on the road it aggravates the hell out of me!  Have you had a chance to talk to Gary, we sure are going to miss him when he retires.  I imagine he is excited about the strongest storm of the season we had in the plains being do to repeat around Christmas Eve.

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An unseasonably and possibly record breaking cold day on tap today. The record lowest maximum temperature for today is the 33 degrees set back in 1984 (records go back till 1894). We have a chance to break that as our high so far today was the 31.7 reading at 1:11am. We could also come close to the record low for tomorrow morning. That record low is 17 degrees set in 1951. The NWS forecasts a low of 17 degrees tomorrow. Temps will slowly warm this week getting us back to just about normal for Thanksgiving Day. Rain is likely by Thanksgiving Night into black Friday.
The record high for today is 75 degrees from 1975. The record low for today is 16 degrees from 1951. The daily rain record is 1.80" from 1952. The daily snow record is 0.8" set in 1937.
image.png.09278b37fae5bb3341c4c994133c533f.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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49 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Yes and I wish they could look as focused at home as they do on the road it aggravates the hell out of me!  Have you had a chance to talk to Gary, we sure are going to miss him when he retires.  I imagine he is excited about the strongest storm of the season we had in the plains being do to repeat around Christmas Eve.

Yes, I speak with him several times a week. I think he's wanting to go 45-48 day cycle, says he will know possibly this week. I believe he's going to predict a snowier winter  here in KC and is ready for his winter forecast next week, NOV. 30th. Let's hope it's actually snowing on the day he's doing  his forecast.  

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We’re enjoying a cool clear morning.  
41*
Humidity 39%
 

Doesnt get much nicer for a start to our Thanksgiving week. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Also, @MIKEKC and @Clinton...

Gary has changed the way a whole region views longer term weather forecasting and short-term cycles for a generation. That's pretty remarkable. 

I rank him with Joe Bastardi as probably the top two "radical" weatherguys I admire still doing the work with love and enthusiasm today. 

I know there are mixed opinions on Bastardi, but these folks also are aware they have that effect on people. Lol.

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The GFS is now showing hints of the December cold blasts, it's near the end of the run of this 12z cycle, but this needs to be watched. We could have December 2000 all over again, even though a 1983 or 1989 repeat is possible, but those two years are unlikely since they are El Niño years. December 2000 is more likely since it's from its own Triple-Dip La Niña

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The GFS is now showing hints of the December cold blasts, it's near the end of the run of this 12z cycle, but this needs to be watched. We could have December 2000 all over again, even though a 1983 or 1989 repeat is possible, but those two years are unlikely since they are El Niño years. December 2000 is more likely since it's from its own Triple-Dip La Niña

Cross polar flow was part of the pattern in the middle of Oct.

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Just now, Clinton said:

Cross polar flow was part of the pattern in the middle of Oct.

I thought that the cold shots in November are the teaser shots, but a big one comes in December. My winter prediction might be right after all! :eek:

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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We did indeed set a record lowest maximum temperature for today of 32.1 besting the previous record of 33 degrees set back in 1984 (records go back till 1894).

This is the earliest sub freezing day since November 13, 2019 which represented the 2nd earliest sub freezing day in Chester County history behind only November 11, 1987 which is the earliest sub-freezing day on record for the County.

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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