Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 This could get real pretty 6 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1am Tuesday 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Subfreezing Arctic outflow by Tuesday morning on this run! Low in the GOA doesn't bomb out, which allows for Arctic air to bleed way south into the region in advance of Wednesday's trough. This could have HUGE positive implications if it's a trend. BC cold pool is already way better established. 8 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z GFS Day 5: 4 Run Trend: 3 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Gfs shows some light precip across the region that wasn’t there on the previous run for tuesday. Temps are very marginal though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 BiNGO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Subfreezing Arctic outflow by Tuesday morning on this run! Low in the GOA doesn't bomb out, which allows for Arctic air to bleed way south into the region in advance of Wednesday's trough. This could have HUGE positive implications if it's a trend. BC cold pool is already way better established. Makes sense. Looks like Tuesday has a high in the 30s 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Wow. Bitter air is flooding nearly due south through BC and not spilling off the BC Coast. This could be a MUCH colder run Day 6.5 + !!!!! 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Wednesday 1pm 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z GFS Day 6: 4 Run Trend: 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Subfreezing Arctic outflow by Tuesday morning on this run! Low in the GOA doesn't bomb out, which allows for Arctic air to bleed way south into the region in advance of Wednesday's trough. This could have HUGE positive implications if it's a trend. BC cold pool is already way better established. This is a huge difference. The cold air never scours out of western WA. This is a very good trend. Huge improvement! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 WOW! 504 thickness into Washington before Day 6.5! 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 I like some parts of this, and dislike others. Less moisture overall and Arctic air is ultimately shallower. But no scouring, and small tweaks would turn this into a generational event. 4 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 I feel like this run definitely toes a fine line-- I am worried (if this specific progression occurs) about things being shunted towards the east. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Need some moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 I feel like snow totals will be impossible at this point because of the falling Temps and snow ratios will vary. 7am Thursday 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z GFS Day 7: 4 Run Trend: Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Jim has actually been right on this before and I’m gonna trust him because hot dang what have we got to lose - when air this cold sweeps in the moisture finds a way. Ya gotta believe!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Looks like it's turning into more of a +EPO/+PNA in the fantasy range. But short term improvements are nice and like I say, short term improvements generally beget long term ones! 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z GFS Day 8: 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Looks like it's turning into more of a +EPO/+PNA in the fantasy range. But short term improvements are nice and like I say, short term improvements generally beget long term ones! It’s pretty nice to see us stay cold inbetween the cold shots next week but I didn’t like us having less precip. We will see it’s just one run not a trend just yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 This thing is going to come down to how much the second trough swings out over the ocean as it slides down from the north as far as snow is concerned. The models are really having trouble nailing that down right now. The cold is looking very likely to happen regardless. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Looks like it's turning into more of a +EPO/+PNA in the fantasy range. But short term improvements are nice and like I say, short term improvements generally beget long term ones! The teleconnection forecasts from the EPS have been saying otherwise. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, Requiem said: I feel like this run definitely toes a fine line-- I am worried (if this specific progression occurs) about things being shunted towards the east. It's been switching back and forth. No clear trend either way right now. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: It’s pretty nice to see us stay cold inbetween the cold shots next week but I didn’t like us having less precip. We will see it’s just one run not a trend just yet. I've seen these setups before, they don't end nicely. Often a straight-to-rain transition. It wouldn't be too bad if we can get a decent snowfall going into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 The gfs wants to moderate us by day 9 but the cmc does not agree. Not showing the mega arctic air the it was on the 12z but pretty close to it at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Wow. PDX metro, western Gorge that is a prolific low level blast with raging east winds. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The teleconnection forecasts from the EPS have been saying otherwise. I mean, it's a transition that is climatologically favored and makes sense. I've noticed models hold on to cold weather regimes for longer than they should. 5 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said: I've seen these setups before, they don't end nicely. Often a straight-to-rain transition. It wouldn't be too bad if we can get a decent snowfall going into it. Dec 2021. Honestly I feel we may simply repeat last year's cold snap. 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, VancouverIslandSouth said: I've seen these setups before, they don't end nicely. Often a straight-to-rain transition. It wouldn't be too bad if we can get a decent snowfall going into it. Right now I think it’s likely a typical gfs wobble in the 7+ day range. I wouldn’t put a whole lot of stock into it. I think at that range on the ensembles the gfs OP ends up an outlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: The gfs wants to moderate us by day 9 but the cmc does not agree. Not showing the mega arctic air the it was on the 12z but pretty close to it at the end of the run. Yeah and still dry. That's disappointing. GEFS is running and almost to Day 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Wow. PDX metro, western Gorge that is a prolific low level blast with raging east winds. I really hope the coming event involves both a Fraser River component and then a Gorge one to keep us cold. That was missing from 2021 which was slightly disappointing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z GEFS Day 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: 00z GEFS Day 5 What does the GFS meteogram look like for Portland/Seattle? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z ICON is hawt 5 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Better snowfall from the GEM. The GEM and EURO have been more aligned on snowfall totals. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Doinko said: What does the GFS meteogram look like for Portland/Seattle? That's not available until the GFS is done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z GFS Day 9: 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Hoping for better runs. Nice low level cold but lack of moisture once we hit below freezing. Throw it out. Onto the next one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z GFS Day 10: Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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