November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

Looks like PDX is finally starting to benefit from some of the cold air flowing in from the interior.  One of the earliest cases of a cold pool over the Basin I can remember.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Looks like PDX is finally starting to benefit from some of the cold air flowing in from the interior.  One of the earliest cases of a cold pool over the Basin I can remember.

45/32 day so far here with a pretty steady east wind. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t understand what your issue is with doing some digging on this. I figured you’d be interested too.

If it's actually constructive and we can draw some conclusions from it. But regardless of the findings, your previous comment just comes across as mean-spirited and like you're going out of your way to ridicule me. I hope you weren't like this before I found this board in Oct 2017.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If it's actually constructive and we can draw some conclusions from it. But regardless of the findings, your previous comment just comes across as mean-spirited and like you're going out of your way to ridicule me. I hope you weren't like this before I found this board in Oct 2017.

This definitely doesn’t seem very constructive!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looking forward to Indianapolis having some cold this winter at some point too.

[SnarkyGoblin]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t understand what your issue is with doing some digging on this. I figured you’d be interested too.

How about you just listen to him and do what he asks?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

This definitely doesn’t seem very constructive!

At least you don't deny it. Progress.

[selkirks]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Personally I'd like more precip and this is classic late-November, early-December Niña so...looks good to me!

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

How about you just listen to him and do what he asks?

So we’re not allowed to talk about precip difference between major regional cities because it might hurt someone’s feelings?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

So we’re not allowed to talk about precip difference between major regional cities because it might hurt someone’s feelings?

Why do you even care? This seems to be eating at you for some reason and rather than focus on your own area, you keep going on about this. I will probably be gone from here in 18 months so you'll mercifully be done with my observations here and you can call me out on how my snow and rain observations in Indy are clearly wrong.

[Dave]

One thing that we can all agree on is that prime Jesse is all the way back to his version of a normal self.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All I can say is it is raining in salem

right now. Also Marion county has done very well for precip this month. Salem is now above average for the water year, and calendar year. If the wet pattern the EPS is advertising does develop we will end up with a pretty soggy November overall. My guess is we get into a cool onshore flow type pattern towards the beginning of December, with perhaps some amplification towards Christmas. I am fairly bullish about things overall. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Dave said:

One thing that we can all agree on is that prime Jesse is all the way back to his version of a normal self.

Right, he's skipped the weenie tip and has now just gone for the full penetration with this.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Why do you even care? This seems to be eating at you for some reason and rather than focus on your own area, you keep going on about this. I will probably be gone from here in 18 months so you'll mercifully be done with my observations here and you can call me out on how my snow and rain observations in Indy are clearly wrong.

The ninth commandment.

Edited November 11, 2022 by Cascadia_Wx

[Deweydog]

Breezy!

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Dave said:

One thing that we can all agree on is that prime Jesse is all the way back to his version of a normal self.

This is so spring 2022.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE may have already reached their high today, which would give them a 46/33 day. On November 11th this translates to a -8 departure. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

 

The ninth commandment.

Marcus Aurelius would be so very proud of your virtuous nature.

[SnarkyGoblin]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

So we’re not allowed to talk about precip difference between major regional cities because it might hurt someone’s feelings?

Gimme a break, mr I always play the victim.  

You know D**n well what you're doing.  I noticed it with you and Tiger yesterday and didn't say anything.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Gimme a break, mr I always play the victim.  

You know D**n well what you're doing.  I noticed it with you and Tiger yesterday and didn't say anything.

Someone should give him a weenie police badge for his logo.

[SimplySmoothWX]

2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Gimme a break, mr I always play the victim.  

You know D**n well what you're doing.  I noticed it with you and Tiger yesterday and didn't say anything.

yup, it's classic gaslighting. Tiger likely isnt the first one to experience that treatment from him

[Cascadia_Wx]

Fine I’ll drop it. This whole thing has seemed very backward to me. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, SimplySmoothWX said:

yup, it's classic gaslighting. Tiger likely isnt the first one to experience that treatment from him

And I won't be the last. Gonna be ugly the next time he goes after Andrew, Jim or Tim.

[Requiem]

How about we all take a deep breath, simmer down, stop trying to get the last potshots in? I mean people here clearly have converging interests and I feel like the "strong" personalities here add to the wonky, concave mirror charm of this place-- but at the same time, it shouldn't be difficult to understand when a topic has obviously run its natural course.

Anyways 18Z GFS is running.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Do you know anything about how Eugene and Springfield historically compare when it comes to rainfall?

Hard to say because as we've discussed before on here, the EUG rain gauge has obviously undergone some changes since the late 1990s, and that is the official station of record for the area. Makes it more difficult to assess historic trends there.

Between 1961 and 1998, EUG recorded 50" of annual precipitation 21 times out of 38 years. 55% of years.

In the last 23 years, they've record 50" of precipitation or more just one time. Or 4% of years.

I don't believe that a disparity like that can be explained solely by climate patterns shifting. Especially as you compare it to Cottage Grove, further south (N-S Gradient!!111) and historically having averaged similar precipitation amounts as Eugene.

 

 

You observe a rather dramatically different trend line here in the 21st century.

So either EUG's rain gauge was "overexposed" or over-recording for a good chunk of the late 20th century or it has been under-recording for a good chunk of the early 21st century. Or perhaps some combination of the two.

Either way, I believe that Springfield would likely average similar precip amounts to EUG and a bit more than downtown Eugene. Not sure there's a whole lot of orographic enhancement locally for most of Springfield, likely that one would need to get a little further east towards the Thurston area to start seeing more of that.

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Hard to say because as we've discussed before on here, the EUG rain gauge has obviously undergone some changes since the late 1990s, and that is the official station of record for the area. Makes it more difficult to assess historic trends there.

Between 1961 and 1998, EUG recorded 50" of annual precipitation 21 times out of 38 years. 55% of years.

In the last 23 years, they've record 50" of precipitation or more just one time. Or 4% of years.

I don't believe that a disparity like that can be explained solely by climate patterns shifting. Especially as you compare it to Cottage Grove, further south (N-S Gradient!!111) and historically having averaged similar precipitation amounts as Eugene.

 

 

You observe a rather dramatically different trend line here in the 21st century.

So either EUG's rain gauge was "overexposed" or over-recording for a good chunk of the late 20th century or it has been under-recording for a good chunk of the of early 21st century. Or perhaps some combination of the two.

Either way, I believe that Springfield would likely average similar precip amounts to EUG and a bit more than downtown Eugene. Not sure there's a whole lot of orographic enhancement locally for most of Springfield, likely that one would need to get a little further east towards the Thurston area to start seeing more of that.

 

Thank you. This is great stuff!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Light rain currently 

[Cascadia_Wx]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE may have already reached their high today, which would give them a 46/33 day. On November 11th this translates to a -8 departure. 

Sunbreak just popped PDX to 49

Holding at 45 for a high here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Well my gauge has officially picked up 0.15" of bullshitt rain amounts today.

[Cold Snap]

Well despite all the cloud cover still managed to get down to 29 this morning. Starting to look like I will pull off over 10 sub freezing lows this month if the models hold. That’s pretty solid for November especially the fact that most of them will be in the first half.

[MossMan]

Looks like snow clouds rolling in! 

[bainbridgekid]

Just now, MossMan said:

Looks like snow clouds rolling in! 

I think the reason the clouds sometimes have that “snow look” here is that all our overrunning events occur with dry cold air at the surface and moist air up above which gives  the clouds a distinct look. Obviously this also happens anytime a system moves in with dry air in place (like today) but we remember it much more clearly when starting at the clouds waiting on snow.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z CFS was going for a flat out cold winter all the way through.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 12z CFS was going for a flat out cold winter all the way through.

It's on the way.

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'm genuinely concerned that the dryrot in the only possible fenceposts I can use will break them. I also am not able to afford a drill. Also, we've already had bums pull some of the fenceposts down and I'm not very good at putting them back up. The fenceposts on the other side of the house have the neighbors house blocking precip from the SW so it wouldn't be an accurate reading.

Oof my prose is falling apart, fuckk these seizures!

 

You could literally bang a scrap 2x4 into the ground, found for free at any construction site or industrial area. Then nail or screw the gauge to that, With a hammer or hand screw driver. We are talking like 1/2” screws here.  I have faith in you. You can do it. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

You could literally bang a scrap 2x4 into the ground, found for free at any construction site or industrial area. Then nail or screw the gauge to that, With a hammer or hand screw driver. We are talking like 1/2” screws here.  I have faith in you. You can do it. 

Thank you. This is helpful.

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Well despite all the cloud cover still managed to get down to 29 this morning. Starting to look like I will pull off over 10 sub freezing lows this month if the models hold. That’s pretty solid for November especially the fact that most of them will be in the first half.

For sure.  Looking good for several more freezes over the next week.  It's supposed to clear out tonight and we have pretty dry air in place now.

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 12z CFS was going for a flat out cold winter all the way through.

Can you post it pls

[bainbridgekid]

Trace of rain at SEA so the dry spell lives on by a hair for now. They need nine more dry days after today to tie the November record. Definitely seems possible.