Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 This seems mildly interesting00z GFS Ensembles500mb Height AnomalyHR 120-384Warm anomaly rapidly shifts west to Alaska/Arctic. Not ideal by any means, but perhaps a step in the right direction as we head towards late November.Animated Gif -> http://imgur.com/CVFyUU7 EDIT: For what it's worth, the crummy 00z CFS shows the EXACT same pattern progression. I'm not sure we should dismiss this and ignore it. Edit: 00z CMC Ensembles similar also. 00z ECMWF Ensembles through day 10 appear to be moving towards a similar solution of possible retrogression. We'll have to see what models/ensembles show in the coming days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 00Z CFS again advertising a complete pattern change toward the end of the month with a 10+ day arctic outbreak bleeding into December 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 00Z CFS again advertising a complete pattern change toward the end of the month with a 10+ day arctic outbreak bleeding into December Yup, I saw that too. It tries to tease us as the pattern begins to setup in the "believable" range before day 16. It's honestly close to giving the PNW 2-3 weeks of arctic air non-stop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Yup, I saw that too. It tries to tease us as the pattern begins to setup in the "believable" range before day 16. It's honestly close to giving the PNW 2-3 weeks of arctic air non-stop. I mean, it's the CFS, so I'm just having some fun, but I do believe that end of the month into December is an opportunity for our first major arctic blast. It kind of goes against what I want, which would be the first major blast hitting around mid December in order to ensure a wintery Christmas, but it's just not in my nature to wishcast. Anyway, I will never turn down a blast of winter. I'm totally okay with a front loaded winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 I mean, it's the CFS, so I'm just having some fun, but I do believe that end of the month into December is an opportunity for our first major arctic blast. It kind of goes against what I want, which would be the first major blast hitting around mid December in order to ensure a wintery Christmas, but it's just not in my nature to wishcast. Anyway, I will never turn down a blast of winter. I'm totally okay with a front loaded winter.Yeah, it's fun to look at, but no one should run to Vegas to place bets. BUT ya never know! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Inversion in places... and a warm east wind in other places in King County. Most stations in the lows 60s at 6 a.m. out here. 60 at my house. But 42 at SEA where the east wind has not surfaced and it looks foggy in Issaquah. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Tracking the Gulf of Alaska mega-low What will become an absolutely massive storm somewhere around 927-935mb over the Gulf of Alaska sometime on Tuesday is actually currently around 985mb over the southern Sea of Okhotsk just to the southwest of Kamchatka. Models show it will meander northeast and weaken a bit at first, but then a piece of energy moves off Asia energizing it. It then rides along an ultra-powerful 230-240mph jet stream fueling extreme Cyclogenesis. On Monday another piece of energy merges with it giving it another boost causing it to bomb rapidly deepening near the central Aleutians. I have created 3 separate animated Gifs showing everything.6z GFS HR 0 to 120 http://imgur.com/BrX0PEP6z GFS HR 72 to 120 http://imgur.com/eU771Ow6z GFS HR 72 to 108 http://imgur.com/SG07Wdk This shows how it evolves from what it is now and then into an absolute Goliath. It will be fun to track this the next several days. I find it fascinating how this region between Kamchatka, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Western/Southwestern Bering Sea is a breeding ground for extreme extra-tropical cyclones, just one after another, after another.http://i.imgur.com/ms5oFhE.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Tracking the Gulf of Alaska mega-low What will become an absolutely massive storm somewhere around 927-935mb over the Gulf of Alaska sometime on Tuesday is actually currently around 985mb over the southern Sea of Okhotsk just to the southwest of Kamchatka. Models show it will meander northeast and weaken a bit at first, but then a piece of energy moves off Asia energizing it. It then rides along an ultra-powerful 230-240mph jet stream fueling extreme Cyclogenesis. On Monday another piece of energy merges with it giving it another boost causing it to bomb rapidly deepening near the central Aleutians. I have created 3 separate animated Gifs showing everything.6z GFS HR 0 to 120 http://imgur.com/BrX0PEP6z GFS HR 72 to 120 http://imgur.com/eU771Ow6z GFS HR 72 to 108 http://imgur.com/SG07Wdk This shows how it evolves from what it is now and then into an absolute Goliath. It will be fun to track this the next several days. I find it fascinating how this region between Kamchatka, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Western/Southwestern Bering Sea is a breeding ground for extreme extra-tropical cyclones, just one after another, after another. It's going to pump up a massive warm ridge over central North America...looking at +20 F anomalies over portions of the Canadian Prairies in the 6-10 day period. 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 It's going to pump up a massive warm ridge over central North America...looking at +20 F anomalies over portions of the Canadian Prairies in the 6-10 day period.Yeah, it's going to amplify the hell out of the pattern out ahead of it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 What does this mean for us?Well, utter devastation. Nah. Initially it will pump a ridge up, mild SW-S flow over us, but beyond day 7 we need to watch the models to see if this super deep low might bring forth a pattern change. It might even be able to kick out the persistent Gulf of Alaska vortex. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Sunrise over Seattle... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Feel free, but I shared the stats. That's the only way to evaluate it objectively. I experienced the event, too. For most lowland areas, the snow that fell leading up to the Arctic event quickly melted. It was a lot of highs around 40, lows around freezing days. The actual Arctic event was enjoyable for sure, and the clear/cold weather allowed lakes to freeze, but temps never got all that cold (look at the lows), and again, only a couple sub-freezing days for most the area. Areas north of Everett and near the Gorge did better. But I'm looking at it from a more regional perspective.It was a fantastic stretch up here! Glad I live north of Everett! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Chillier this morning with spots of fog. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Intense fog this morning. 31 degrees. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Well, utter devastation. Nah. Initially it will pump a ridge up, mild SW-S flow over us, but beyond day 7 we need to watch the models to see if this super deep low might bring forth a pattern change. It might even be able to kick out the persistent Gulf of Alaska vortex.Agreed. It's not about what this particular system may do for us, but more so what it may do for the overall pattern Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 2 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 PDX fell to 45 this morning. It's been a pretty great October so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 PDX fell to 45 this morning. It's been a pretty great October so far.It fell to 43 up here. Good May. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 It fell to 43 up here. Good May.I saw some dandelions blooming yesterday. I guess it's true what they say about April showers! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Had a low of 39 here. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 If anybody wants carrots (or just guilty pleasures in general), the CFS can provide them. 9*F on morning of 12/3. LOL. It's a lock!! http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110400/708/sfct.conus.png That cold air really digs into socal too. Low of 35 at LA, 43 at San Diego... Fun stuff. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Funny to see 1997/98 continue topping the CPC analog list. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Funny to see 1997/98 continue topping the CPC analog list.Loltastic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 12z Euro gives the eastern seaboard a chilly shot of air. At least it's a shake up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Woke up to 60... getting close to 70 now. Might be a good afternoon for the boat! Oh crap... forgot we winterized it. Any chance we are done with freezing temps yet? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Woke up to 60... getting close to 70 now. Might be a good afternoon for the boat! Oh crap... forgot we winterized it. Any chance we are done with freezing temps yet? That's pretty toasty. Only 45F here. Perfect timing on the clouds to keep things cool this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 That's pretty toasty. Only 45F here. Perfect timing on the clouds to keep things cool this afternoon. I would not call that perfect timing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 That's pretty toasty. Only 45F here. Perfect timing on the clouds to keep things cool this afternoon.55 down here after a low of 42. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 New ECMWF (parallel) weeklies keep that giant GOA/NPAC vortex going strong right into Christmas. Fook. That sucks. Some models are pointing to January as the best chance for a significant Arctic intrusion into the lower 48 including the PNW so we might have to wait until then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Decent agreement about the general pattern between the newest editions of the 12z GFS and EURO at day 10. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016110412/240/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016110412/240/500h_anom.na.png I'm not liking what the newest edition of the 12z GFS shows in the long range. It wants to return us to a Split Flow/Cut-Off Low type pattern. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016110412/384/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Bouncing around here either side of 70 now... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 It's a screenshot Friday! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 It's a screenshot Friday!More screenshots of temps in the 70s please !! Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 It's a screenshot Friday! Sort of impressive out there right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Sort of impressive out there right now.It's a little less enjoyable knowing it's not frustrating Jim, though. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 It's a little less enjoyable knowing it's not frustrating Jim, though.Its very enjoyable and I think its a good sign for winter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Funny to see 1997/98 continue topping the CPC analog list. I’d take another January 12th 1998 Most memorable sledding night as a kid. Saddest morning on the 13th though. As a kid you didn’t realize that snow could change to rain so quickly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 70 on the truck thermometer! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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