November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Well you might as well go through February while your at it. '89?

For Feb I'd probably go with 1893 or 1916...at least up here.

 

A most epic winter would be

 

Nov 1985

Dec 1884

Jan 1862 (even better would be a combo of Jan 1862 and Jan 1950)

Feb 1893 (colder than 1916)

March 1951

 

That would be a solid winter for pretty much anywhere in the country.

 

If I was limited to 1950 and later I would go with.

 

Nov 1985

Dec 1968

Jan 1950

Feb 1989

March 1951

[ShawniganLake]

For Feb I'd probably go with 1893 or 1916...at least up here.

 

A most epic winter would be

 

Nov 1985

Dec 1884

Jan 1862 (even better would be a combo of Jan 1862 and Jan 1950)

Feb 1893 (colder than 1916)

March 1951

 

That would be a solid winter for pretty much anywhere in the country.

 

If I was limited to 1950 and later I would go with.

 

Nov 1985

Dec 1968

Jan 1950

Feb 1989

March 1951

January 1862 was better than 1916?

[Dave]

For Feb I'd probably go with 1893 or 1916...at least up here.

 

A most epic winter would be

 

Nov 1985

Dec 1884

Jan 1862 (even better would be a combo of Jan 1862 and Jan 1950)

Feb 1893 (colder than 1916)

March 1951

 

That would be a solid winter for pretty much anywhere in the country.

 

If I was limited to 1950 and later I would go with.

 

Nov 1985

Dec 1968

Jan 1950

Feb 1989

March 1951

In Feb 1989, I dug a snow cave on a local hill here just south of Eugene  (Spencer Butte).  I'd estimate the snow depth was about 3' with 6' foot drifts.  Fond memories.

[BLI snowman]

January 1862 was better than 1916?

Definitely was colder. 1916 had extreme snowfall but that was focused in early February.

[TT-SEA]

Today's high of 51 at PDX was the coolest since March 15th.

 

Over eight months.

 

 

Seems like the coolest weather of the year is probably focused in the November - March period?   

[snow_wizard]

In Feb 1989, I dug a snow cave on a local hill here just south of Eugene  (Spencer Butte).  I'd estimate the snow depth was about 3' with 6' foot drifts.  Fond memories.

We got snow here, but not that much.

[crf450ish]

29 degrees at my house at the moment. Just ran out to my shop to grab something and man its friggin cold. Haven't felt temps this chilly in months on end. 

[TT-SEA]

Is this possibly lowland snow next Friday in a deformation band on the north side of the low??  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

[MossMan]

Is this possibly lowland snow next Friday in a deformation band on the north side of the low??

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

Happy Black Friday! Or should I say White Friday!

[Dave]

We got snow here, but not that much.

I lived at 1000' elevation and got about 16".  The snow cave was at 2000'.  It was quite a hike in the deep snow.  I'd probably have a heart attack if I tried that now.

[MossMan]

Welp...according to Cliff Mass and his latest blog we are doomed...the next several weeks...doomed.

[luminen]

Welp...according to Cliff Mass and his latest blog we are doomed...the next several weeks...doomed.

 

That's probably good news in reality.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Kind of ugly after day 8-10.... Aleutian/GOA vortex might be reforming. Only one run though....

[Deweydog]

Is this possibly lowland snow next Friday in a deformation band on the north side of the low??

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

I'm a genius!

[GobBluth]

00z GFS Kind of ugly after day 8-10.... Aleutian/GOA vortex might be reforming. Only one run though....

A swing back around to a +pna?

[ShawniganLake]

00z GFS Kind of ugly after day 8-10.... Aleutian/GOA vortex might be reforming. Only one run though....

Seems like things might head that direction. Then we get to wait and hopefully everything retrogrades come early-mid December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gonna be a long ugly winter fellas. 

[Gradient Keeper]

A swing back around to a +pna?

Maybe. Hopefully only briefly.

 

PNA fairly neutral, AO, NAO sure forecast to tank now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

http://i.imgur.com/nm8maGg.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Gonna be a long ugly winter fellas. 

Dusting off the fork as we speak.

[jcmcgaffey]

For Feb I'd probably go with 1893 or 1916...at least up here.

 

A most epic winter would be

 

Nov 1985

Dec 1884

Jan 1862 (even better would be a combo of Jan 1862 and Jan 1950)

Feb 1893 (colder than 1916)

March 1951

 

That would be a solid winter for pretty much anywhere in the country.

 

If I was limited to 1950 and later I would go with.

 

Nov 1985

Dec 1968

Jan 1950

Feb 1989

March 1951

. It would be interesting to see a similar list for warmth and see how the last few years looked against it. Looking at your list above at first glance seems absurd to think something like that would ever happen but what we are going through now is somewhat similar but in the opposite direction so to speak.

[Jesse]

Seems like the coolest weather of the year is probably focused in the November - March period?

It's pretty unusual to go that long.

[HighlandExperience]

That's probably good news in reality.

 

That just means December will be even more amazing. 

[snow_wizard]

Gonna be a long ugly winter fellas.

Oh brother.

 

One not as good run and it's over?

[Bryant]

Oh brother.

 

One not as good run and it's over?

CFS must not be looking good

[Gradient Keeper]

Oh brother.

 

One not as good run and it's over?

Definitely.

[snow_wizard]

Welp...according to Cliff Mass and his latest blog we are doomed...the next several weeks...doomed.

But the blob is gone!

[Gradient Keeper]

CFS must not be looking good

Let me check later.

[snow_wizard]

CFS must not be looking good

That must be it. It will probably be two or three runs before another great one.

[snow_wizard]

. It would be interesting to see a similar list for warmth and see how the last few years looked against it. Looking at your list above at first glance seems absurd to think something like that would ever happen but what we are going through now is somewhat similar but in the opposite direction so to speak.

There was a really putrid period in the late 30s / early 40s also. We all know what came after that.

[HighlandExperience]

[ShawniganLake]

I'm not so sure.

Have we abandoned the 10-11 analog?

[Gradient Keeper]

At least 00z ECMWF was cooler with a TON of mountain snow. Best EURO run yet. 00z GFS wasn't exactly warm with plenty of mountain snow.

[snow_wizard]

So you saying we have to wait till the 2020s

No. We had 1942-43 right after the horrible run and that was a good winter.

[snow_wizard]

At least 00z ECMWF was cooler with a TON of mountain snow. Best EURO run yet. 00z GFS wasn't exactly warm with plenty of mountain snow.

Also kind of interesting the 0z GFS ensemble was better than previous runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

Also kind of interesting the 0z GFS ensemble was better than previous runs.

Some improvement yeah. Onto 6z! Begins in 2 hours 17 minutes !!!!

[Phil]

Have we abandoned the 10-11 analog?

Not looking as pretty, especially with the +PNA likely returning to start December (though the NPAC low is likely to be located farther west, towards the Aleutians instead of the eastern GOA).

 

There are some 1959/60 vibes to the upcoming pattern.

[HighlandExperience]

At least 00z ECMWF was cooler with a TON of mountain snow. Best EURO run yet. 00z GFS wasn't exactly warm with plenty of mountain snow.

The way Cliff Mass was blogging you would think this was going to be a terrible winter. Seems a bit premature

[ShawniganLake]

Yuck

[Phil]

However, watch early/mid December for a potential EPO tank following the next +WPO burst. Might benefit the Midwest/East more than the west, though, so it's not a given.

[ShawniganLake]

However, watch early/mid December for a potential EPO tank following the next +WPO burst. Might benefit the Midwest/East more than the west, though, so it's not a given.

Seems like that's the time to watch for a possible retrograde of the main players.