November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

They brought it back about a month ago. Buggy and slow but it gets the job done.

 

Very interesting!   

 

That was the main reason I went to WeatherBell.   

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z is running, skipping and leaping. 

[snow_wizard]

It finally managed to drop to 32 here last night just before the wind kicked in. I had a gust to 33 here just a little bit ago.

[Timmy]

18z is running, skipping and leaping.

Drunk uncle?

[snow_wizard]

The 12z ECMWF ensemble looks pretty nice. Robust -NAO -PNA around day 10. The 11 to 15 day period has improved with a weak -PNA continuing.

[GobBluth]

CFS is looking sessual starting the first week of December- all that cold air is finally migrated to over the poles.

 

Anyone know if the CFS uses it's own algorithm, or is it using the same modeling tech as the big three?

[snow_wizard]

The CFS is getting more consistent in portraying a GOA / Aleutian block for December. Will be interesting to see if that continues.

[Kayla]

Euro weeklies are looking very promising. The control and ensemble mean look good for a warning shot beginning later next week through the end of the month. That is followed by ridging the first half of the December then at the very least modified arctic air floods the region around the 20th with plenty of valley snow for the region.

 

Have to give huge props to Snow Wiz if this all becomes reality as I think this is the general progression of things that he has been forecasting for months now.

[chopper 918]

Hour 300 looks good on the 18Z.  LOL.

[Deweydog]

Nice to finally see some inconsistency in the CFS.

[snow_wizard]

No question the models are getting more bullish about a GOA ridge beginning next week. Looking pretty decent right now. that should also bring the PDO down a bit.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Hour 300 looks good on the 18Z.  LOL.

Remember... He is the Drunken Uncle. 

[Phil]

Euro weeklies are looking very promising. The control and ensemble mean look good for a warning shot beginning later next week through the end of the month. That is followed by ridging the first half of the December then at the very least modified arctic air floods the region around the 20th with plenty of valley snow for the region.

 

Have to give huge props to Snow Wiz if this all becomes reality as I think this is the general progression of things that he has been forecasting for months now.

Are you looking at the same weeklies I am?

 

I see a big NPAC vortex/+WPO/+PNA through the entirety of December. Not that I agree with it.

[Phil]

I can see that being a realistic progression. "Warning shot" last week of November -> ridging for the first week or two of December -> retrogression of said-ridge causes cold/snow last half of December. Seems logical if everything plays out right.

I could see something like that unfolding. I'm confident there'll be a notable -EPO burst sometime in December, but I'm not sure how exactly it'll unfold, and whether or not it'll coincide with a SSW event.

 

February 1989 is the last example of the ideal strat/tropical synchronization.

[westcoastexpat]

Are you looking at the same weeklies I am?

 

I see a big NPAC vortex/+WPO/+PNA through the entirety of December. Not that I agree with it.

 

 

Yeah... Euro weeklies have been pretty disheartening for the region lately actually.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice to finally see some inconsistency in the CFS.

LOL

[Gradient Keeper]

Drunk uncle?

Which model run is the Drunk Aunt? or is she just medicated.....

[Gradient Keeper]

[ Model Countdown ]

Next up....

*00z GFS in 3 hours 50 minutes

00z CMC/GEM in 4 hours 50 minutes

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 7 minutes

[Sometimesdylan]

Today is the last day of sunlight for Utqiaġvik, Alaska (formerly called Barrow).

 

65 days without sunlight starting tomorrow.

[Timmy]

Which model run is the Drunk Aunt? or is she just medicated.....

Probably the NAM in general... she is kind of a too

[crf450ish]

Today is the last day of sunlight for Utqiaġvik, Alaska (formerly called Barrow).

 

65 days without sunlight starting tomorrow.

Wow ....thats news to me. I think I'll continue to refer to the city as Barrow, as its WAY easier to pronounce. 

[Sometimesdylan]

Uht tke ah vick

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS also shows much colder air finally making it to our side of the Hemisphere moving pole ward into Alaska. It's not historic cold or anything, but it's nice to see. Definite steps in the right direction. It's coming. Get ready. Be prepared. Subject to change: Slight chance, but it is the Drunk Uncle after all.

 

Extracted Data

Barrow, AK http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=pabr

Fairbanks, AK http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=pafa

Anchorage, AK http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=pamr

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111818/gfs_T850_ak_41.png

[snow_wizard]

Today is the last day of sunlight for Utqiaġvik, Alaska (formerly called Barrow).

 

65 days without sunlight starting tomorrow.

I think most people will still call it Barrow since the real name looks unpronounceable.

[snow_wizard]

Probably the NAM in general... she is kind of a S**t too

Shouldn't that be faced?

[Kayla]

Are you looking at the same weeklies I am?

 

I see a big NPAC vortex/+WPO/+PNA through the entirety of December. Not that I agree with it.

 

Ha, I sure hope I am!

 

The weekly control run from yesterday showed a pretty nice block from December 13th - 23rd timeframe. Not the best looking block ever but we don't need that to see snow. Sometimes it's better so we can get more moisture into the area. The ensemble mean is also giving the area snowfall in that same timeframe. Maybe not quite arctic but good enough.

[Timmy]

Shouldn't that be s**t faced?

I meant the commson sl*t word used for prostitute

[Phil]

Ha, I sure hope I am!

 

The weekly control run from yesterday showed a pretty nice block from December 13th - 23rd timeframe. Not the best looking block ever but we don't need that to see snow. Sometimes it's better so we can get more moisture into the area. The ensemble mean is also giving the area snowfall in that same timeframe. Maybe not quite arctic but good enough.

Oh, yeah the operational control run is on board with a modified event of sorts during week 4. I prefer to look at the ensemble mean, which I think offers better predictability at that range.

 

Always risky to rely on a single operational run once out several weeks. Huge swings occur within 10 days, let alone four weeks.

[Front Ranger]

Today is the last day of sunlight for Utqiaġvik, Alaska (formerly called Barrow).

 

 

Is Russia finally taking back Alaska?

[Timmy]

Is Russia finally taking back Alaska?

That's what I thought, but it's probably Eskimo or something (cue the pc police to tell me what they go by now, sorry I honestly don't know).

[ShawniganLake]

Chilly out there today. Only got to 42F for a high here today.

[TT-SEA]

Chilly out there today. Only got to 42F for a high here today.

 

 

55 here with offshore flow.    It was really windy down in the valley but much less so up here.

[Deweydog]

Breezy out!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS

Begins in..... 22 minutes

 

Feel free to play along

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=471

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6

[Trainwreck]

 

00z GFS

 

Begins in..... 22 minutes

 

 

 

Feel free to play along

 

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

 

North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=471

 

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6

I'll go with the North America view. It paints the best picture. And btw, it's flurrying in Redmond at the moment. Temp sitting at 32.4

[Kayla]

Oh, yeah the operational control run is on board with a modified event of sorts during week 4. I prefer to look at the ensemble mean, which I think offers better predictability at that range.

 

Always risky to rely on a single operational run once out several weeks. Huge swings occur within 10 days, let alone four weeks.

 

Agreed.

 

Definitely not depending on it but at the same time it is the most accurate long range operational model in the land so it shouldn't be discounted completely.

[Gradient Keeper]

 

00z GFS

Begins in..... 22 minutes

 

Feel free to play along

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=471

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6

 

Here we go.....

[luvssnow_spokane]

High wind warning just issued for my area through Sunday.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wind Advisory

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

624 PM PST FRI NOV 18 2016

 

EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-

 

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY.

 

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

 

* WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR THE CASCADE GAPS.

 

* IMPACTS...WIND SPEEDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN BREAK TREE LIMBS THAT FALL ONTO ROADS...VEHICLES...AND ROOFTOPS. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 ESE North Bend [King Co, WA] TRAINED SPOTTER reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M50 MPH at 18 Nov, 6:07 PM PST -- ANEMOMETER LOCATED 50 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. SUSTAINED WINDS EAST 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS 45-50.