Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 D**n that Bering Sea/Aleutian block is huge, massive compared to previous runs.... Also, Looks cold Gorge east into Columbia Basin. MIGHT be trending towards the GFS/WRF http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016113012/ecmwf_T850_nwus_8.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Likely.WRF has a strong PDX-DLS gradient funneling arctic air into PDX keeping the cold layer thick. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016113012/images_d2/slp.180.0000.gifLooks more like a cold air damming setup. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 That's a sexy map. Too bad it's 7 days out.Yup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Block was a touch stronger on this run... and GFS has had that trend the past 6 runs. I like the trend guys not gonna lie. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Block was a touch stronger on this run... and GFS has had that trend the past 6 runs. I like the trend guys not gonna lie.Thank you for not lying. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Looks more like a cold air damming setup.Was about to say the same thing. 925's are colder along the East side of the Coast Range and Olympics than in the Gorge. Either way, Wednesday definitely has quite a bit more potential for widespread snow than Sunday night/Monday. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Wow, the updated run of the 12z GEM is also showing an overrunning event around the same time frame. Looks like a massive sleet/ice storm for the Gorge once they transition over. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016113012/192/prateptype.us_nw.pnghttp://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016113012/198/prateptype.us_nw.pnghttp://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016113012/204/prateptype.us_nw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 First confirmed slushy splat test on the windshield! It has begun! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 12z GFS 8-14 day Composite Analog was decent, some improvement. Certainly not arctic YET, but the Positive anomaly edging bit closer to 160 W. Potential the pattern improves. 1964, 1968 popped up twice http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 One thing is for certain, an incredible blocking period is coming up. Been a long time since I have seen such a cold Euro run end to end. Sunday night looks like a 34º slop event below 1,000' but there will be plenty of people that score eventually out of this pattern. This run even shows a chance that our "transitionary" event Wed night into Thursday is not in fact a transition event but just a snow event. 4 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 One thing is for certain, an incredible blocking period is coming up. Been a long time since I have seen such a cold Euro run end to end. Sunday night looks like a 34º slop event below 1,000' but there will be plenty of people that score eventually out of this pattern. This run even shows a chance that our "transitionary" event Wed night into Thursday is not in fact a transition event but just a snow event. Cool, I'll take all snow. I don't like to deal with freezing rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 18z in 2 hours 26 minutes!!!! (Sorry I wasn't here for 12z GFS. I actually slept for once.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 18z in 2 hours 26 minutes!!!! (Sorry I wasn't here for 12z GFS. I actually slept for once.) And we actually had a good run for once 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Here's a blog post about our coming pattern from a met at The Weather Network. http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2016/11/30/cold-arctic-blast-potential 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 And we actually had a good run for once That's true! I'm going to bed early and will set alarm for 9:20 PM. That way the operational, GEFS, and 6-10/8-14 day Composite Analogs all will have completed without any chance of me jinxing things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Here's a blog post about our coming pattern from a met at The Weather Network. http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2016/11/30/cold-arctic-blast-potentialWow 1000 days since Airport in Vancouver BC has recorded significant snow. Really goes to show how pathetic the past few seasons have been for northern locations. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Here's a webcam page from Alaska. Anchorage is sitting at 2F but there isn't much snow. http://www.borealisbroadband.net/Vid-DTN2.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Wow 1000 days since Airport in Vancouver BC has recorded significant snow. Really goes to show how pathetic the past few seasons have been for northern locations.We're just paying for the fleet of snow removal equipment after 2008 before the 2010 olympics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Wow 1000 days since Airport in Vancouver BC has recorded significant snow. Really goes to show how pathetic the past few seasons have been for northern locations. That is pretty insane for a city that is so far north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 The CPC released an updated one month outlook for next month. Below normal temps for the west coast and above normal precip. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 The CPC released an updated one month outlook for next month. Below normal temps for the west coast and above normal precip.They must have access to the CFS. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 EURO says nope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 EURO says nope.Nope to what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Nope to what?The "event" for mid next week time frame (Wed/Thur) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 12z Euro snowfall map through Thursday afternoon. Most of this falls Thursday morning, with about an inch falling on Monday. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2016113012/nw/ecmwf_tsnow_nw_34.pngLink isn't working for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 12z Euro snowfall map through Thursday afternoon. Most of this falls Thursday morning, with about an inch falling on Monday. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2016113012/nw/ecmwf_tsnow_nw_34.pngPlease repost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Re-attached. Let me know if it still doesn't work.Works on my end, thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 12z Euro snowfall map through Thursday afternoon. Most of this falls Thursday morning, with about an inch falling on Monday.Low res. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Re-attached. Let me know if it still doesn't work.Works now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 12z Euro snowfall map through Thursday afternoon. Most of this falls Thursday morning, with about an inch falling on Monday.6-9" for me over the next week, I am interested to see the wrf hi res durning at time in coming days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 How were the Euro ensembles? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 12z EPS wasn't bad. Quite chilly over us days 5-7. I notice promising trends beyond day 8. 500mb anomaly shows the positive anomaly/ridge much closer to the "sweet spot" than previous runs. Not ideal yet, but it's an improvement. Comparison to 12z yesterday the block was much further westhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112912/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png and now today. Yep. Closer to 160 W.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016113012/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Looking at the Euro ensembles for Everett, WA out of the 51 members, about 22 show 6+ inches at some point next week. Might be hints of a PSCZ in those. For Portland (metro) folks about 5 members show 6+ inches, and about 26 shows 2+ inches. Of course, all subject to change this far out but a good rough idea of where they sit right now.Thanks for the info Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Remember the big EAST WIND SNOW EVENT on December 22nd 2008? Day 7 looks similar to that, does it not? Only that low kind of hung off the coast and further south a bit... . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Looking at the Euro ensembles for Everett, WA out of the 51 members, about 22 show 6+ inches at some point next week. Might be hints of a PSCZ in those. For Portland (metro) folks about 5 members show 6+ inches, and about 26 shows 2+ inches. Of course, all subject to change this far out but a good rough idea of where they sit right now.I'm trying hard not to get excited...but I'm caving. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Remember the big EAST WIND SNOW EVENT on December 22nd 2008? Day 7 looks similar to that, does it not? Only that low kind of hung off the coast and further south a bit... .Heck ya. I had back to back blizzards where I live during 2008. Yeah slide that low further south! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Looking at the Euro ensembles for Everett, WA out of the 51 members, about 22 show 6+ inches at some point next week. Might be hints of a PSCZ in those. For Portland (metro) folks about 5 members show 6+ inches, and about 26 shows 2+ inches. Of course, all subject to change this far out but a good rough idea of where they sit right now.I'm looking forward to hopefully finally taking advantage of the CZ here this Winter. Last Winter was my first in Mountlake Terrace but was far too craptastic to ever benefit from it. I know the Euro Ensemble is run at a higher resolution than the GFS ensembles, but I'd still be a bit surprised if it could pick up on small scale features like CZ's accurately. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Heck ya. I had back to back blizzards where I live during 2008. Yeah slide that low further south!If I remember right it kind of just ended up being stationary out there for a bit. Didn't come inland. SOMEONE HELP ME OUT? POST A GRAPHIC? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 This is the best one I have: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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