December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Sometimesdylan]

Lol, compact vort right over Alaska. Sometimesdylan will like this run.

I'm on the fence. I'm okay with it just being cold/dry/windy so I can bust out the ice climbing tools, but if it is snowy I would be able to get my skiing/snowmobiling fix.

 

Just anything but 45 degrees and raining is what I'm rooting for. 

[Deweydog]

I'm on the fence. I'm okay with it just being cold/dry/windy so I can bust out the ice climbing tools, but if it is snowy I would be able to get my skiing/snowmobiling fix.

 

Just anything but 45 degrees and raining is what I'm rooting for.

45 and rain?

 

Sounds chilly.

[Sometimesdylan]

45 and rain?

 

Sounds chilly.

Our ski area elevation is 1200-2600 ft. If it's 45 and raining it's mostly all below snow line.

 

Makes me have to go to Haines to get my skiing fix, but I'm in the middle of finals so that won't be a go for two weeks.

[Front Ranger]

Irony is, there isn't THAT big a difference between the two.  

 

Are you kidding? The differences in the pattern between days 5-10 for both models were huge. Far more than we've seen leading up to this point.

[Phil]

In your opinion, what is the likelihood we switch back to a west coast ridge for December?

I'm predicting another EPO tank and subsequent Arctic blast into the US around the Holidays, however I'm not sure where/how it'll unload, so that period could either feature a western ridge or a deep trough depending on where the waves set up.

 

I'm more confident in a warmer pattern during early/mid January, with a colder pattern following from late January into February following a SSW/PV break-up, which should take place during the second half of January.

[Deweydog]

I think this model chaos is the result of a divided, embattled electorate. Progressive and heart warming versus cold hearted and anachronistic.

 

It's gonna be a rough winter and it's only day one.

[Front Ranger]

Any word on Euro ensembles? I've been in class all day.

 

They are good. Pretty close pattern evolution overall to the operational, nothing like the 18z GFS.

[Phil]

They are good. Pretty close pattern evolution overall to the operational, nothing like the 18z GFS.

I'm not sure I'd take it that far. They definitely trended more progressive, especially in the d11-15 range, but they're still worlds better-looking than the GFS/GEFS et al.

[Timmy]

They are good. Pretty close pattern evolution overall to the operational, nothing like the 18z GFS.

It will be a showdown tonight on the 00z runs!

[Front Ranger]

Just slight differences between the Euro/GFS ensemble means at day 6.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

I'm not sure I'd take it that far. They definitely trended more progressive, especially in the d11-15 range, but they're still worlds better-looking than the GFS/GEFS et al.

 

Just talking through day 10. They are pretty darn similar with the pattern to the operational. At least the mean is.

 

EDIT: Comparing the ensemble mean from the 0z Euro to the 12z, the 12z ensembles were actually less progressive through day 10.

[Phil]

Just slight differences between the Euro/GFS ensemble means at day 6.

 

euro.gif

 

gfs.gif

I think you have mismatched timestamps there. There's a difference but it's not as stark as that map depicts, and certainly not extraordinary for d6..

 

EPS mean:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F56DDFC5-1D46-4F6A-B814-17A44DEE0847_zpsua6kuodd.png

 

GEFS mean:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BE7CAF8B-FE69-497A-9E17-7C18921231EF_zpsscpeexft.png

[Front Ranger]

Phil, the 12z Euro was run about 3 hours before the 18z GFS, right? So why are you comparing hour 144 of the Euro ensembles to hour 156 of the GFES? That's 15 hours later from model initiation.

[Phil]

Phil, the 12z Euro was run about 3 hours before the 18z GFS, right? So why are you comparing hour 144 of the Euro ensembles to hour 156 of the GFES? That's 15 hours later from model initiation.

That just brings them closer (12z to 12z). Your images are 24hrs apart..maybe clear your cache?

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/0FCFAF14-F62B-4707-806E-38B002B2B18A_zpshrh9cdyt.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F56DDFC5-1D46-4F6A-B814-17A44DEE0847_zpsua6kuodd.png

[Kayla]

I think you have mismatched timestamps there. There's a difference but it's not as stark as that map depicts, and certainly not extraordinary for d6..

 

 

 

Your timestamps are off and that is still a rather significant difference...

[Phil]

Your timestamps are off and that is still a rather significant difference...

Fat thumbs + smartphone. See the corrected comparison above..not a huge difference at all.

[Phil]

Just slight differences between the Euro/GFS ensemble means at day 6.

 

 

euro.gif

 

gfs.gif

 

 

These images are a full 24hrs apart. One is on the 7th, the other on the 6th. There's your difference.

[Deweydog]

I'm so confused. Which one of those maps says it will snow at my house????

[Kayla]

Fat thumbs + smartphone. See the corrected comparison above..not a huge difference at all.

 

Somewhat subtle in the upper air patterns but of course much bigger changes on a surface level.

 

I guess the point is that the 12z EPS mean is almost identical as the ECMWF operational.

[Heavy Snow]

If the progressive pattern shown on the GFS develops it will certainly shove the cold air out very quickly...

Like in early January 2004 where the progressive pattern said rain and above freezing temperatures but several days later we were still below freezing that left all the meteorologists stunned? I think the GFS starting with the upcoming 00z run tonight will start to trend towards what the 12Z KING EURO showed.

[MossMan]

I'm so confused. Which one of those maps says it will snow at my house????

That's all I care about as well.

[Deweydog]

PDX comes in with a -1 for the high today!

 

New month, new season, new attitude, new climate regime!

[Jesse]

PDX comes in with a -1 for the high today!

 

New month, new season, new attitude, new climate regime!

http://youtu.be/-kl4hJ4j48s

[mountainman]

Hi well I hope as we approach the magical timeframe, the models come into better alignment with SNOW.  And more cold shots to follow.  We are so overdue for a cold snowy winter, but yes, all components must fall into place first.  Very tough to predict this in the PNW mountainous climate.  The ocean is the biggest player that dominates our weather and constantly wants to moderate any cold air.  So i am cheering for the block and huge stationary trough dominating to our East.  Lets go SNOW.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Like in early January 2004 where the progressive pattern said rain and above freezing temperatures but several days later we were still below freezing that left all the meteorologists stunned? I think the GFS starting with the upcoming 00z run tonight will start to trend towards what the 12Z KING EURO showed.

I could be wrong but I would think that the models would have improved in technology just a little bit since 2004.

[mountainman]

We are still days away from the details and direction of the models.  Wow you sure ride the models here guys.  Don't stress so much not worth it man

[chopper 918]

Only 42 here today.  Looks like PDX hit 47.

[Sometimesdylan]

We are still days away from the details and direction of the models.  Wow you sure ride the models here guys.  Don't stress so much not worth it man

You must be new here 

[mountainman]

Looks very climo..

Cold front passes through and maybe a slight transition with some light snow in isolated areas...otherwise dry.  Then the outflow dries everything up for a couple of days.  Typical warmer transition to rain from the SW to piss us all off coming Thursday.      

Seen it all before.  Hoping for the best but being reasonable at the same time too.  

[mountainman]

ya i am i got 7 posts now man ahahah

Why did i miss something?

[Sometimesdylan]

ya i am i got 7 posts now man ahahah

Why did i miss something?

 

We ride models more than most hiphop artists.

[Front Ranger]

Somewhat subtle in the upper air patterns but of course much bigger changes on a surface level.

 

I guess the point is that the 12z EPS mean is almost identical as the ECMWF operational.

 

Yes, it really is.

[mountainman]

Oh hee hee that was a funny one  

[Jbolin]

We ride models more than most hiphop artists.

Oh  

[Heavy Snow]

I could be wrong but I would think that the models would have improved in technology just a little bit since 2004.

 

Yeah, I hope so. I'm hoping the models can trend colder.

[Front Ranger]

These images are a full 24hrs apart. One is on the 7th, the other on the 6th. There's your difference.

 

Wasn't a cache issue, and just because one said the 6th and one said the 7th doesn't make them 24 hrs apart. I think just a time stamp issue on the map. The 144 hour ensemble mean for the 18z GFS should only be 3 hours behind 144 hr for 12z Euro, right?

 

Either way, you can see the general progression of the ensemble mean for both models is quite different. Much like the operationals were quite different.

[bainbridgekid]

Wasn't a cache issue, and just because one said the 6th and one said the 7th doesn't make them 24 hrs apart. I think just a time stamp issue on the map. The 144 hour ensemble mean for the 18z GFS should only be 3 hours behind 144 hr for 12z Euro, right?

 

Either way, you can see the general progression of the ensemble mean for both models is quite different. Much like the operationals were quite different.

Just because the Euro was 3 hours late being released shouldn't push the run itself back though. I'd think hour 0 would still be 12z.

[Bryant]

Yeah, I hope so. I'm hoping the models can trend colder.

Just a day or 2 ago you were positive about the models!

[Heavy Snow]

Wow, I knew KING EURO has trended colder but I had to check for myself. I looked at the last 3 12z KING EURO runs from Tuesday to today. They have gotten progressively colder each run for Wednesday at 4am. Here is what they were showing for YVR, SEA and PDX each of those runs. I have never seen anything like this before.

 

YVR- 11/29: -8C

         11/30: -9C

         12/01: -10C

 

SEA- 11/29: -7C

         11/30: -8C

         12/01: -9C

 

PDX- 11/29: -5C

         11/30: -6C

         12/01: -9C

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112912/192/850tw.conus.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016113012/168/850tw.conus.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120112/144/850tw.conus.png

[Heavy Snow]

Just a day or 2 ago you were positive about the models!

 

I still am! The trend is our friend with KING EURO!