December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy]

So is the Canadian kind of like the NAM in overstating precip? Because it shows a ton of precip across nw Oregon tomorrow.

The Canadian is awesome for my area, gfs has been waning lately though

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 12z GEM continues to show a massive over-running event for most of us here in the I-5 corridor starting Thursday morning. Looks like a potentially devastating ice storm for PDX if the GEM verifies. Looks like you guys up in YVR get hammered.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120412/096/prateptype.us_nw.pnghttp://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120412/102/prateptype.us_nw.pnghttp://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120412/108/prateptype.us_nw.pnghttp://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120412/114/prateptype.us_nw.pnghttp://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120412/120/prateptype.us_nw.png

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120412/156/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

[snow_wizard]

Another very promising GFS runs.  It appears 850s are about 12C below normal around day 11.  On the 6z both the operational and control models had 850s dropping to -15.  The ECMWF control models has had two good runs in a row and the ECMWF operational had the great 12z run yesterday.

[Farmboy]

Hard to gripe about the WRF.  Looks like the Seattle area could be a huge winner.

Funny, NWS says less than half an inch possible for that area on the ne side of lake Washington with the pretty shades of red....

[TT-SEA]

We don't need to see every angle of the city from your cams.

 

Sorry... just thought it was interesting because you see what is happening so clearly.   

[snow_wizard]

Funny, NWS says less than half an inch possible for that area on the ne side of lake Washington with the pretty shades of red....

 

They should know better.

[HighlandExperience]

Sorry... just thought it was interesting because you see what is happening so clearly.   

 

Waiting for you to post covington cams.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sorry... just thought it was interesting because you see what is happening so clearly.

 

Pictures like that are out of line Tim!!!

[Phil]

Weather will do what it wants. Who says it has to adhere to human reason and intuition?

It doesn't have to adhere to anything except the laws of physics.

[mountainman]

Temps will warm when the precip starts..even if it drops below freezing tonight.  Hard pressed to see any snow on the down low, bro   

[mountainman]

Maybe see some thrills in the hills tho

[Heavy Snow]

Wow, the 12z GEM is showing close to an inch of freezing rain for PDX! 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120412/120/zr_acc.us_nw.png

[FroYoBro]

It definitely looks like we are going to stay in an overall cold pattern for the next 2 weeks or so. Should be some more opportunities coming up. 

[Weather101]

[Weather101]

[luvssnow_spokane]

Temp is falling fast here at my house this morning. Nice to see.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

Roses not looking so good this morning... they are drooping.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow GFS Ensembles look good. 

[Phil]

Roses not looking so good this morning... they are drooping.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Major cold shift on the mid and long range GFS ensembles this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I know who "Arctic Blast" is now. lol

[HighlandExperience]

Wow that is very promising. I swear, if the WRF is overdoing precip/CZ that much and it doesn't materialize, I will never trust the WRF again.

 

This event will be a good test of the WRF.

[Trainwreck]

I know who "Arctic Blast" is now. lol

Who?

[FroYoBro]

What if December ended up below average for PDX?!?!?!?!?!?               

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What if December ended up below average for PDX?!?!?!?!?!?               

 

Hopefully only slightly, we need January to ROCK!

[ShawniganLake]

Wow that is very promising. I swear, if the WRF is overdoing precip/CZ that much and it doesn't materialize, I will never trust the WRF again.

Not sure about in your location. But locally, I usually assume 25-50% less than what the WRF is showing for precip amounts.

[Kayla]

Looking more and more like a "December to remember" type of month.

[Timmy]

I know who "Arctic Blast" is now. lol

Please do tell!

[luminen]

Up to 36F so far with nice clear skies. Need to get out soon and take pics of the mountains.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I won't reveal his identity, but I figured it out in the facebook groups...

[Kayla]

What if December ended up below average for PDX?!?!?!?!?!?               

 

I'll take it a step further... What if December gives us our biggest negative departure from normal at PDX since February 2014?!?!?

[crf450ish]

Got into a little action yesterday...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/672-winter-picture-thread/?p=173464

[Timmy]

I won't reveal his identity, but I figured it out in the facebook groups...

dang it I have been waiting to figure it out. I got banned from the fox 12 one like 7 years ago. Ask someone to unban me there. Please?

[bainbridgekid]

The Ensembles have serious resolution issues obviously, but every single 12z GFS member shows at least 1" at SEA this week, the mean shows 4" and the OP shows 6".

 

Pretty strong signal for fairly widespread snow for areas with any elevation tomorrow/tomorrow night.

 

Gotta change it to SEA on the map, but this is a really cool site.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html

[Timmy]

dang it I have been waiting to figure it out. I got banned from the fox 12 one like 7 years ago. Ask someone to unban me there. Please?

The unofficial fox 12 blog discussion group I think it was called

[Front Ranger]

I really like this cam. 

 

It's 360 and way up in the air. Tough to beat that.

[Front Ranger]

I know who "Arctic Blast" is now. lol

 

Mark Nelsen?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The unofficial fox 12 blog discussion group I think it was called

 

It's called Portland Weather Uncensored now...I'll msg the admins...

[Front Ranger]

Major cold shift on the mid and long range GFS ensembles this morning.

 

Indeed.