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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

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MR.SNOWMIZER
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Been a emotional day.. First time in 27 years i went and picked a Christmas tree without my woman but me and my son made the best of it and had a good time. Its been a real test as a father dealing wi

jaya
jaya

Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at. With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models

Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.   http://i.imgur.com/fhWgu21.jpg

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted

Yeah, today has nothing going for them. Tomorrow should be quite a bit cooler with offshore flow and a colder night.

 

Their 10:53 observation for tomorrow will be 34dp27, winds E at 15g23.  Haven't quite decided on the barometric pressure.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Heavy Snow Newbie

Heavy Snow

Posted
Posted

The 12z KING EURO is showing the highs for Thursday will be in the early morning hours for PDX before the precipitation comes and not thawing out until sometime on Friday. It's still showing east winds for PDX through Friday 4pm.

 

Thu/Fri highs and lows for some locations and snowfall amounts through Thursday 10pm.

 

Vancouver: 33/31 - 37/31 - 6"  

Scappoose: 32/28 - 38/31 - 5"

Hillsboro: 32/30 - 38/31 - 5"

Portland: 33/31 - 37/31 - 6"

Troutdale: 31/30 - 36/30 - 6"

Aurora: 35/33 - 43/33 - 3"

McMinnville: 35/31 - 44/32 - 4"

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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Timmy Mentor

Timmy

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Posted

For what it's worth, 18z Nam comes in just a hair quicker with the system, hence a hair quicker with the changeover for the Portland Metro/SW WA.

 

Yeah, low is a little weaker and closer to the coast. Still not good agreement with the euro.

 

And the afd was just about as confident with a solution... 1-4" in the metro before a changeover

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Heavy Snow Newbie

Heavy Snow

Posted
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NWS Portland just updated their AFD. Their going for 1" to 4" plus up to 0.25" ice right now.

 

"Attention then turns to the very significant winter storm for later
Wednesday night and Thursday, the strongest winter storm of this sort
we have had in quite a while. Look for precipitation to slowly lift
north through the area Wednesday night, probably just approaching the
Portland area around 4 am, then spreading north Thursday morning.
Look for a brief period of an inch or two of snow or sleet in the
inland areas from about Salem south late Wednesday night before
changing to freezing rain and sleet Thursday morning and rain late
Thursday morning and afternoon. Farther north in the inland areas
around Portland northward look for 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inches of snow in
the morning before changing over to sleet then freezing rain in the
afternoon with up to about a quarter inch of ice possible. The
Portland area north should change to rain in the evening. The Gorge
and Upper Hood River Valley will see several inches of snow Thursday,
with freezing rain and sleet moving in Thursday night, possibly
lingering into Friday. The Cascades will mainly see some snow with
some rain below the rising snow levels.

The models are showing a decent low moving up the coast Thursday into
Thursday night that will bring strong east winds to the Columbia
River area, and southeast to south winds along the coast.

Bottom line is that Thursday for much of the area weather is going to
cause a lot of problems."

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDPQR&wfo=PQR

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Prairiedog Community Regular

Prairiedog

Posted
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NWS thinks PDX will hold onto the cold till around Thurs evening sometime.  1-4" possible with some ice over the top before it moderates.  Typically they underestimate how long it takes to thaw.  Obviously quicker thawing south of PDX but the general PDX area and east takes some time.  Almost always a warm nose of air works its way up the west flanks of the Cascades and east side of the Valley and once that happens the fun is about over.  Having lived here all my life, when I see a weakening low track south of the Columbia R. it bodes well.  Warm up is slower albeit not as much snow but it won't melt off right away.  Too many pieces yet to be determined in how they line up but I like what appears to be taking shape.  WSW or WSA should be coming soon.  I can't imagine a WSW not being issued as we get closer. 

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted

For what it's worth, 18z Nam comes in just a hair quicker with the system, hence a hair quicker with the changeover for the Portland Metro/SW WA.  

 

Have a real hard time believing that the low is going to be that strong.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted

Have a real hard time believing that the low is going to be that strong.

 

I don't see any reason why it can't, it's just a matter of which model solution will win out.  Could see 2-3 hours of snowfall or we could see 8. The uncertainty makes it fun!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Heavy Snow Newbie

Heavy Snow

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Posted

Another thing that could prolong this event for PDX Metro is the fact that moisture will be coming in from the South and areas east of the Cascades should see Snow as it makes its way up North. It should be snowing in the Gorge and Columbia Basin at the same time as it is for PDX Metro. This should bring in even colder air through the Gorge. The cold pool should be extra thick.

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
Posted

For what it's worth, 18z Nam comes in just a hair quicker with the system, hence a hair quicker with the changeover for the Portland Metro/SW WA.  

 

No need to worry. The NAM will trend towards GFS and Euro. It's taking a bit longer to latch onto the idea than Euro and GFS. It could go the other way too but my money is on the Euro which has been leading the other models with this low so far. GEM will come around too.

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Prairiedog Community Regular

Prairiedog

Posted
Posted

All about the mid level temps.  As soon as temps rise above 32f in that 2-4,000ft range the snow is done.  Sleet, ZR.  As the wedge of cold air thins out over the Metro area its done (as far as the snow part goes).  But if the air coming down the Gorge is deep enough we're good but it never ends well.  So what we hope for is for a prolonged event of snow (4 hrs, 8hrs, ?) As long as the low is weaker and heading south we have a chance.  There's no upper level cold air support to reinforce the mid levels of the atmosphere for this event.  Once the wedge of cold air is thinned out its over.  So, its all about duration.  What can we hope for?

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted

Upcoming pattern remind anyone else of January 2012?

 

EDIT: I was thinking of 2011, thought it bears some significant similarities to 2012 as well.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted

No need to worry. The NAM will trend towards GFS and Euro. It's taking a bit longer to latch onto the idea than Euro and GFS. It could go the other way too but my money is on the Euro which has been leading the other models with this low so far. GEM will come around too.

Not worrying, just reporting what it showed. Uncertainty will eventually become certainty. Probably sometime Thursday.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted

January 2011.

Very true. That is what I was thinking of.

 

Though it reminds me a bit of 2012 as well. Both had models showing a parade of lows bringing enormous lowland snowfall within a week before most of the subsequent lows ended up going North.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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