SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Only 20 at 9am. Low sun angles! Well if it doesn't cloud up as early tonight we could see some lower lows... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Looking very busty You being obsessed with this busting is going to be a bust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 My snow day tomorrow is looking less likely. Can't wait to drive home in blowing snow and stalled traffic! Snow is always more enjoyable with others! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Yeah, big windstorm for Portland and wet snow north of Seattle. Models have been pretty consistent in showing that energy hitting the coast midweek next week, so there's still some potential for a surprise with it. The 12z GFS was totally different for that time frame. No storm at all, blocking situation upstream quite a bit different. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Well, a gargantuan, steroidal +NAO vortex will always be detrimental to meridional streamflow over the US. I mean, look at this thing. It's seemingly dominating the entire hemispheric wavetrain. Good lord.. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CC4DDAC4-BC21-4299-8B41-F74DECBF05D5_zpsywyhwntb.pngYeah I seen that shitt in the paper today. WTF is going on man!! 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 I was here over the weekend, Monday, and early this morning. The idea that Dewey and I are closet sadists has been rehashed here repeatedly..it's a hilarious tradition of sorts but completely untrue in reality.I seem to remember a couple of people asking your opinion on the pattern progression this morning, so it made sense you were posting this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 The 12z GFS was totally different for that time frame. No storm at all, blocking situation upstream quite a bit different. It has the same undercutting Tuesday energy as other models/runs have. Just weaker and further south. Then it looks like another storm later in the week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z GFS actually shows the Seattle area getting more snow than the 00z run showed, so there's that. Through hr 54, it looks like anywhere from 2-7 inches with more along the Puget Sound shoreline, less around the EPSL and further North. Snow mainly starts late Thursday night/early Friday morning. 12z GEM is considerably better than the 00z run, but delays the onset of snow until Friday during the day. Snow starts slowly Friday morning and gets cranking by Friday afternoon. By Saturday night, it shows 4-7 inches with more in the EPSL, less near the shorelines. No evidence of downsloping on this run, which is a bit odd. Whatcom looks to continue snow through Sunday - by Sunday night they have 10+ inches. 12z WRF is the most apparent with the downsloping for EPSL, showing practically nothing throughout the whole event for us. God I hope it's as wrong as it was on Monday. 12z Euro up next. Not too bad of runs so far today.Where are you getting those snow totals with the GEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z GFS actually shows the Seattle area getting more snow than the 00z run showed, so there's that. Through hr 54, it looks like anywhere from 2-7 inches with more along the Puget Sound shoreline, less around the EPSL and further North. Snow mainly starts late Thursday night/early Friday morning. 12z GEM is considerably better than the 00z run, but delays the onset of snow until Friday during the day. Snow starts slowly Friday morning and gets cranking by Friday afternoon. By Saturday night, it shows 4-7 inches with more in the EPSL, less near the shorelines. No evidence of downsloping on this run, which is a bit odd. Whatcom looks to continue snow through Sunday - by Sunday night they have 10+ inches. 12z WRF is the most apparent with the downsloping for EPSL, showing practically nothing throughout the whole event for us. God I hope it's as wrong as it was on Monday. 12z Euro up next. Not too bad of runs so far today. Always trust the WRF with overrunning events. One hopes that the low weakens considerably to nullify the downsloping winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Weatherbell regional maps of the Seattle area. Your area looks to do incredibly well over the next few days on this run.In general I think the GEM precip maps are terrible, but I don't have access to the hi res or weather bell stuff. Hopefully everyone gets something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 I seem to remember a couple of people asking your opinion on the pattern progression this morning, so it made sense you were posting this morning.I normally sit back and read when an event is nearing or ongoing since I have less to add (PNW microclimates aren't something I'm knowledgeable about). Since I was name dropped this morning I responded with a few thoughts, but mostly I'm here to watch the pictures and observations roll in. Then the models swung a bit, and I became the piñata for whatever reason..almost as if I caused it to happen. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 I normally sit back and read when an event is nearing or ongoing since I have less to add (PNW microclimates aren't something I'm knowledgeable about). Since I was name dropped this morning I responded with a few thoughts. Then when the models swing, I'm suddenly the piñata. Even worse, a transparent pinata. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 I normally sit back and read when an event is nearing or ongoing since I have less to add (PNW microclimates aren't something I'm knowledgeable about). Since I was name dropped this morning I responded with a few thoughts, but mostly I'm here to watch the pictures and observations roll in. Then the models swung a bit, and I became the piñata for whatever reason..almost as if I caused it to happen. Your thoughts are always appreciated here. The reason that happened is because you're important and your voice carries a lot of weight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 .SHORT TERM...There is a front offshore and it becomesincreasingly west-east oriented through Thursday and then movesnorth through Western Washington late Thursday afternoon and evening. Clear Skies today will give way to high clouds tonight. The cloudswill increase Thursday with snow starting up in the south, probablymidday, and spreading north through the rest of Western Washingtonaround late afternoon. Easterly pressure gradients will rise, withwindy weather in the typical gap wind areas on Thursday--which iswest of the passes for the most part and around Enumclaw. Snow Thursday night will turn to rain by daybreak Friday in much ofthe lowlands. Cool air tends to bank up against the east slopes ofthe Olympics-so it might take an extra six hours there, and theprecip is usually heaviest there in this overrunning easterly flowtype of system. The Seattle metro area should get some drying fromthe easterlies and 1-3 inches is a good forecast for now. There is awinter storm watch up for most of Western Washington--my guess isthat most areas will end up with a winter weather advisory and HoodCanal will get a winter storm warning for heavy snow. Currently there is still Fraser outflow--but it is not all thatstrong, the Bellingham to Williams Lake gradient is -10mb and steady--til that collapses chilly air will keep a mix of wintry preciparound Bellingham. For Thursday night, that will be snow. For Fridaymorning there could be a little sleet or freezing rain mixed in, andthen after that it is hard to say--but I think the forecast forWestern Whatcom county could be five degrees too warm for the highsand the lows Friday through Monday, so that is something to work ontoday. So, back to Friday--rain will fall at times for the most lowlandsexcept perhaps that wintry mix for Whatcom county and the placesthat are slower to scour in the morning like Hood Canal and maybealong the Strait. The afternoon and Friday night are rainy, and thenthe 12z GFS has a weather system and 1002mb low moving on to thecoast--that fills and mushes out into the Columbia Basin Saturday.The 1000-850mb thickness ranges from 1320dm at Hoquiam to 1296dm atBellingham--so the north may still flirt with wet snow but nearlyall the lowlands should have rain Friday night. The precip movesinto the Cascades and dries up Saturday morning--the foothills ofthe Cascades should have a snow level that is below 500 feet in thenorth to maybe 1500 feet in the south but we may see wet snow on thehills for a few hours around daybreak Saturday--the path of that lowkeeps the low level flow coolish and interesting and even though the850mb temp is fairly warm at -3c around Seattle on that 12z GFS. Looks good for Bellingham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Even worse, a transparent pinata.I have been absolutely relentless with my attacks on Phil. A vicious dog comes to mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Even worse, a transparent pinata.Well I guess that explains it then. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Bend hit 0, always nice to see. 27 for the low at PDX this morning. Coldest temp of 2016!Actually hit -2 at the 715 and 735 readings. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 I have been absolutely relentless with my attacks on Phil. A vicious dog comes to mind. I just don't see this supposed devious yet apparently transparent plot. He's not the burning bush but what he's been saying for months generally has shown at least some merit. I actually like the fact he's sticking to the more generalized stuff. When he deviates from it, things typically fall apart a bit. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Basically the AFD from NWS Seattle is calling for a non event for the I-5 corridor...most likely downgraded to a WWA instead of a WSW and all rain by Friday daybreak. No big deal, nothing to see here, move along. I hope Seattle gets smashed with a foot of snow. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWx Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 NWS already back-tracking on snow for Seattle tomorrow. Saying 1-3 inches due to drying from the easterlies then a rapid transition to warm rain by early Friday. This is starting to feel like bust potential again. However, maybe it's a good thing that NWS is back-tracking given their failures of late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 NWS here in Portland is still saying widespread 2-4" of snowfall with the usually favored areas getting 3-6" then turning to freezing rain with up to 0.25" of accumulation. Changeover doesn't look to occur until around midnight tomorrow. Seems like an accurate forecast at this point to me. We'll see what the Euro says in a few minutes. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 I have been absolutely relentless with my attacks on Phil. A vicious dog comes to mind. You PM'ed me to complain about a lighthearted comment I made about your own characterization of me. I deleted it, per your urgent request, then you go back and continue on with the backhanded trolling and claims of ulterior motive(s) on my part..hilarious. At this point, I'd say your a** is fair game. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Not trying to be a debbie downer, but based on my 25 years of watching weather in this climate, I don't have a lot of confidence in widespread accumulation over 2" anywhere outside of favored locations like Forest Grove, Banks, etc... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 NWS already back-tracking on snow for Seattle tomorrow. Saying 1-3 inches due to drying from the easterlies then a rapid transition to warm rain by early Friday. This is starting to feel like bust potential again. However, maybe it's a good thing that NWS is back-tracking given their failures of late.Not really much of a back track. They've been conservative all along and a widespread 1-3" is still a solid event for Seattle. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Anywhere from 5-10 inches of snow has fallen so far here in Juneau. It's dumping! Should continue throughout the day. 1 Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 GFS MOS has 36 at SEA tomorrow and then 43 on Friday. That is not real good... pretty significant warm up on Friday. Hope its really wrong but I am doubting that now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z Euro is running... Epic bust, or more hope? Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 The updated run of the 12z GFS is showing good snow accumulations from PDX Metro North through Friday 4pm. Here are two snowfall maps using the 10:1 ratio and the more accurate Kuchera ratio. The Kuchera ratio is more accurate because it takes more variables into play. It's usually more conservative but the times it shows the same or even more than the 10:1 means confidence is high in getting solid snow throughout the event. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120712/060/sn10_acc.us_nw.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120712/060/snku_acc.us_nw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Not trying to be a debbie downer, but based on my 25 years of watching weather in this climate, I don't have a lot of confidence in widespread accumulation over 2" anywhere outside of favored locations like Forest Grove, Banks, etc...Expect an angry PM from Jesse any minute now, asking you to delete this post. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Not trying to be a debbie downer, but based on my 25 years of watching weather in this climate, I don't have a lot of confidence in widespread accumulation over 2" anywhere outside of favored locations like Forest Grove, Banks, etc...December 1994!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 JNU NWS Office this AM "Models in agreement for an even colder air mass to move in forthe weekend and then again mid week. Began the trend to lowertemps for this time. For now staying toward the higher side ofthe model temp spectrum. The cold air and increasing winds willresult in freezing spray for some of the inner channels and coldwind chills, especially at higher elevations." Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Not trying to be a debbie downer, but based on my 25 years of watching weather in this climate, I don't have a lot of confidence in widespread accumulation over 2" anywhere outside of favored locations like Forest Grove, Banks, etc... I hear you as there's so many ways this could bust. 1) Downsloping keep the lowlands dry2) Precip isn't intense to start and the surge of warm air leads to a transition before heavier precip arrives3) Southerly winds.4) Everyone in Puget Sound eats tainted Burritos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 FWIW this is the first overrunning event we've had in a couple years that has not just switched to rain and melted off the next day. Seems like since 2011/2012 most of the overrunning events would be a day of cold snow followed by a half day of heavy wet snow switching to rain. Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z Euro is running... Epic bust, or more hope? We just want it to show what it showed last night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 My formula for gorge outflow is it has to be at least 28 at The Dalles and 24 at Pendleton when precip arrives. That is just for I-205 east... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Hr 24 euro looks like it went towards the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWx Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Model riding can be gut wrenching this time of year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Euro hour 24. Not significantly different from the GFS with the handling of the low so far. Clear double barrel signature. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016120712/ecmwf_z500_mslp_wus_2.png Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 I just don't see this supposed devious yet apparently transparent plot. He's not the burning bush but what he's been saying for months generally has shown at least some merit. I actually like the fact he's sticking to the more generalized stuff. When he deviates from it, things typically fall apart a bit.I agree with this. I thought it was interesting that others perceived what I have in the past. That is all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 7, 2016 Report Share Posted December 7, 2016 Hr 24 euro looks like it went towards the gfs Has less warm air invading southern OR than GFS does... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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