December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[seattleweatherguy]

It still gets really cold. We might even get snow out of that. It may trend even colder too. If we get enough opportunities we will get this snow monkey off our backs.

Hope so, but am I reading that right, no warm up yet at 18z as in no green in seattle

[seattleweatherguy]

Wait that's for Dec 13th

[Phil]

Verbatim, the GFS is showing all-time record cold over much of the US (by mid-December standards). Longstanding records would come crashing down in lots of places.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It still gets really cold. We might even get snow out of that. It may trend even colder too. If we get enough opportunities we will get this snow monkey off our backs.

It does showing us getting a little snow with it... Maybe a few inches per this run....

[Jesse]

Getting into unprecedented territory.

 

Kind of reminds me of December 1998 back in the MRF days. It picked up on that blast about nine days out, then about four days out it disappeared for a day, then came back.

 

This seems worse, will probably end worse.

You thinking the mid-range stuff is bogus? I'm not sure what to think about it.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Hope so, but am I reading that right, no warm up yet at 18z as in no green in seattle

There is a warm up but not as much. Still in the upper 30's to low 40's for a short time at least

[Jesse]

Verbatim, the GFS is showing all-time record cold over much of the US (by mid-December standards). Longstanding records would come crashing down in lots of places.

#1983

 

Did that one have a warning shot?

[luvssnow_spokane]

You thinking the mid-range stuff is bogus? I'm not sure what to think about it.

The whole progression is whacky... I am really a bit baffled and just personally not sure what to think of this. Sadly I am desperate and about ready to believe anything good.

[Phil]

Over 60 degrees below average in IL on the 00z GFS.

[Perturbed Member]

WRF still going for 2-3 inches widespread at PDX, precip maybe starting around noon but very light accumulation until 4PM. 4-7 PM we get a solid 2 inches of snow. 

[Goducks09]

I can't stop thinking about what a colossal waste that block will end up being in the event it doesn't deliver us some winter weather here in the lowlands.  

 

Trying to think positive, but at the end of the day, mother nature doesn't give a f***  

[Perturbed Member]

GEM

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120800/039/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

[Phil]

#1983

 

Did that one have a warning shot?

Lol, something like that.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is terrible for snow tomorrow night. Just too dry. At least it appears we are far from done with the cold.

[The Swamp]

Sistek just tweeted out that the snow for Seattle has been pushed back now to between 11pm - 1am for Seattle.

 

Ha!

 

Before you know it poof, it will be completely gone from the forecast.

[Perturbed Member]

GEM is pretty juicy. .9 in QPF at PDX while frozen precip is still supported. Significantly more than the 12z. A similar trend to the 00z NAM. Too bad the GFS did not follow the same trend. 

[snow_wizard]

GEM

I would love to see it see it, but I'm prepared to see nothing more than light snow here that will just blow around with the east wind.

[snow_wizard]

I can't stop thinking about what a colossal waste that block will end up being in the event it doesn't deliver us some winter weather here in the lowlands.  

 

Trying to think positive, but at the end of the day, mother nature doesn't give a f***  

As I say...eventually we will hit the magic combo if we get enough cold shots.

[Kayla]

GEM way better for tomorrow.

 

I'd say so... Widespread 4-6" of snowfall.

[HighlandExperience]

The WRF is terrible for snow tomorrow night. Just too dry. At least it appears we are far from done with the cold.

 

Considering how badly the WRF busted on Monday probably best to treat it with a grain of salt at this point.  Hope the GEM is right. Doesn't the GEM tend to overestimate precip? 

[snow_wizard]

#1983

 

Did that one have a warning shot?

Dec 1983 had a bunch of minor cold shots before the mother lode hit.

[Deweydog]

You thinking the mid-range stuff is bogus? I'm not sure what to think about it.

Dunno. I do know the upside is probably nothing close to as cold as 12-98, though.

[Phil]

Those early/mid 1980s analogs are looking like real winners.

[snow_wizard]

Considering how badly the WRF busted on Monday probably best to treat it with a grain of salt at this point.  Hope the GEM is right. Doesn't the GEM tend to overestimate precip?

Not sure what its bias is.

 

One grain of hope I still have is the fact the 12z ECMWF was better than yesterday's 0z.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I can't stop thinking about what a colossal waste that block will end up being in the event it doesn't deliver us some winter weather here in the lowlands.  

 

Trying to think positive, but at the end of the day, mother nature doesn't give a f***  

So true... AND we just have to accept that could be the end result. A bunch of teasing with no real action

[snow_wizard]

Pretty windy here with the temp slowly falling. Currently 31. Not bad with it this windy.

[The Swamp]

Before you know it they will just push the moisture back to the point where it's just supposed to be rain.  Friday morning.

[Phil]

Those early/mid 1980s analogs are looking like real winners.

Hindsight is 20/20 but it makes sense. Weak -ENSO, similar low frequency NPAC cell/PDO, NATL cell/AMO, cool IO, QBO westerly @ 50mb..etc

[Deweydog]

Wind just kicked in here bigtime. No likey.

[snow_wizard]

So true... AND we just have to accept that could be the end result. A bunch of teasing with no real action

I still think this has an old time feel to it. We are just kind of on a bad run for snow here right now. We will come out of it.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I would love to see it see it, but I'm prepared to see nothing more than light snow here that will just blow around with the east wind.

You probably will see nothing falling as you will be asleep.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through early Friday morning per the WRF... the swamp people are happy to see the screw zone expand immensely!  

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow24.36.0000.gif

[Phil]

Lol..reload attempt in clown range. Less of a Hudson Bay Vortex also helping. Man look at all that blue..

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F74B3835-D76E-43D5-A740-130CD3D743CB_zpscjpvhpho.png

[EA_TTD]

Redding and Red Bluff reporting snow while North Bend torches.  You can't make it up...

[luminen]

25F at the moment here with no wind.

 

While walking outside today with my wife I said "Isn't cold and sunny weather so much better than windy, dark, and wet weather for 6 months?".

 

It's so much more pleasant. 

[FroYoBro]

Beaverton School District just canceled all school for tomorrow. Now I can track this with 100% weenie power.

[Deweydog]

Canadians have f*cked up senses of humor.

[EA_TTD]

Wind just kicked in here bigtime. No likey.

 

Mountain wave.  Nothing appreciable in Troutdale so no gap.  Going to put the patio set back out in the morning.

[Phil]

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/82B2C8DD-EF51-484A-9792-992CFECB96D1_zpsaonwxeke.png

[epiceast]

Redding and Red Bluff reporting snow while North Bend torches.  You can't make it up...

Overperforming by 1 foot(Redding airport is at 499' one foot below the magic line in Northwest).