December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

I understand it's very difficult to make specific timing calls like that. Just pointing out that a 10 day difference is significant when you were still calling for a holiday cold wave 10 days ago. At that time, you weren't recognizing that cold period we were entering as the same event (but earlier) you were expecting later in the month.

Stop makings things up. I left the third week of December open at the time to account for possible timing errors.

[Jesse]

Stop makings things up. I left the third week of December open at the time to account for possible timing errors.

It always amazes me how negatively you react to this sort of thing. Flatiron is right. You changed your tune and/or you were just wrong. It's ok. Be a big boy and admit it.

[Front Ranger]

Quite the flip nationally from November to December.

 

 

[Phil]

I understand it's very difficult to make specific timing calls like that. Just pointing out that a 10 day difference is significant when you were still calling for a holiday cold wave 10 days ago. At that time, you weren't recognizing that cold period we were entering as the same event (but earlier) you were expecting later in the month.

Aside from the fact you couldn't make an accurate large scale sub-seasonal forecast to save your life, you're now blatantly mischaracterizing my statements to supplement your own insecurities. Get a life.

[Phil]

It always amazes me how negatively you react to this sort of thing. Flatiron is right. You changed your tune and/or you were just wrong. It's ok. Be a big boy and admit it.

You listen here. I'm so f**king sick of having my statements intentionally (or unintentionally) taken out of context. It's f**king annoying..I spend so much time "correcting the record" here and I'm f**king sick of it.

[van city]

21 F here already.

[van city]

You listen here. I'm so f**king sick of having my statements intentionally (or unintentionally) taken out of context. It's f**king annoying..I spend so much time "correcting the record" here and I'm sick of it. I'm not going to f**king put up with it anymore.

This...

[Everett-Snow]

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation. This web site was of Cliff Mass's blog. It's pretty technical so it may suggest where we might be going this winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

HIO reporting "snow" on the hour

[crf450ish]

I do think this would make sense if this winter followed the script of recent winters.

 

But looking further back, it would be far from unprecedented to continue to see the pattern to continue to revert to the general state it's been in this month (though obviously not as cold the whole time) throughout the winter, and not wait until late January.

So your pretty much saying theres a decent likelihood that winter 2016-2017 ends up being far better than any winter since 08-09?

[Phil]

This...

I've just been through this too many times. Tired of having to drag up old posts to prove the obvious. I might break out in hives next time. F**k, man.

[Jesse]

HIO reporting "snow" on the hour

PDX just bumped up to "35"

[Weather101]

This...

LOL this was a legendary post

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX just bumped up to "35"

Lame. SLE had a 32/16 today

[Jesse]

Lame. SLE had a 32/16 today

I'm guessing a jumbo jet just took off.

 

Nice @ SLE. Good calls for lows down there on my part.

[crf450ish]

One from my custom tuned analog thermometer (heated up the glue and calibrated it myself and reglued it. http://i.imgur.com/fyZfiIp.jpg

 

And another from the rusty but trusty Honda Pilot...

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/zh2J30C.jpg

 

 

These temps are intense for me. Its an adventure to bundle up in all of my arctic gear I've only ever had the pleasure of using on the north slope in Alaska. I need to invest in one of those handheld thermometers with the little stainless probe deal attached to a wire that can give real time digital readouts. Curious what the temps are when I'm Bombing down gravel roads at 50 mph on the 4 wheeler. 

[Weather101]

I've just been through this too many times. Tired of having to drag up old posts to prove the obvious, but am afraid I'll have to do that once again here. Whatever.

I read all you're posts and I understand what it means but not going to lie I understand none of the science behind it, so you are defiantly a smart guy, I think people just don't want to hear it won't work out when the models show it does. You vs the models lol

[Front Ranger]

So your pretty much saying theres a decent likelihood that winter 2016-2017 ends up being far better than any winter since 08-09?

 

I'm saying there's a decent chance that the PNW gets cold/snow again before late January. "Better" is relative and depends on location, preferences, etc. Snowfall is impossible to predict.

 

Can't hope to evaluate the whole winter until it's over, but I would say there is a very good chance this winter ends up the coldest for the PNW since at least 2008-09.

[Jesse]

I read all you're posts and I understand what it means but not going to lie I understand none of the science behind it, so you are defiantly a smart guy, I think people just don't want to hear it won't work out when the models show it does. You vs the models lol

He also changes his forecasts a lot lol and isn't very good at admitting to being wrong even when questioned in a civil manner lol

[Front Ranger]

I read all you're posts and I understand what it means but not going to lie I understand none of the science behind it, so you are defiantly a smart guy, I think people just don't want to hear it won't work out when the models show it does. You vs the models lol

 

Phil is a smart guy. Uses a lot of big words and acronyms, too.

 

But keep in mind, he was downplaying this cold period as we were heading into it. Basically saying, it might result in a couple below normal days, but nothing noteworthy and the main period to watch would be later in December.

 

He could still end up being right - late December could end up being a bigger deal! Who knows...certainly not the models.

[Jesse]

Phil is a smart guy. Uses a lot of big words and acronyms, too.

 

But keep in mind, he was downplaying this cold period as we were heading into it. Basically saying, it might result in a couple below normal days, but nothing noteworthy and the main period to watch would be later in December.

 

He could still end up being right - late December could end up being a bigger deal! Who knows...certainly not the models.

He is going to freak out when he sees this because it's 100% correct lol

[Weather101]

He also changes his forecasts a lot lol and isn't very good at admitting to be wrong even when questioned in a civil manner lol

Yeah the admitting to be wrong, I've seen him struggle with that. Which you have to accept when you make 2 month forecasts lol

[Phil]

I read all you're posts and I understand what it means but not going to lie I understand none of the science behind it, so you are defiantly a smart guy, I think people just don't want to hear it won't work out when the models show it does. You vs the models lol

I love the weather and climate, and I bust my butt to educate myself and make predictions on various timescales. I put all of my passion and energy into this stuff, so when my "work" is taken out of context and attacked in bad faith, it rubs me the wrong way sometimes, especially when the same group of people continue this behavior. I have no respect for it.

[Weather101]

Phil is a smart guy. Uses a lot of big words and acronyms, too.

 

But keep in mind, he was downplaying this cold period as we were heading into it. Basically saying, it might result in a couple below normal days, but nothing noteworthy and the main period to watch would be later in December.

 

He could still end up being right - late December could end up being a bigger deal! Who knows...certainly not the models.

Yeah he does downplay stuff that isn't his prediction, got to take the good with the bad. His posts gives great insight but I feel like it doesn't effect us as much as he says, which isn't a knock on him just how our climate works.

[Phil]

He also changes his forecasts a lot lol and isn't very good at admitting to being wrong even when questioned in a civil manner lol

This is an example of what I'm talking about. "He changes his forecast a lot, blah blah blah". Just stupid, empty words.

 

Untrue, first of all. You won't be able to name anything I've changed in my forecast this winter, minus the modest timing correction I highlighted today.

 

Second, yes, when I think I'm on the wrong track I make changes..why would I run with a forecast that I think is going to bust? Stupid.

[Weather101]

I love the weather and climate, and I bust my butt to educate myself and make predictions on various timescales. I put all of my passion and energy into this stuff, so when my "work" is taken out of context and attacked in bad faith, it rubs me the wrong way sometimes, especially when the same group of people continue this behavior. I have no respect for it.

Just keep doing what you're doing because as I said you're posts are really smart, and if you're ever wrong bro just straight admit and I think nobody can ever say anything then.

[Jesse]

Just keep doing what you're doing because as I said you're posts are really smart, and if you're ever wrong bro just straight admit and I think nobody can ever say anything then.

This is actually pretty solid advice.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

One from my custom tuned analog thermometer (heated up the glue and calibrated it myself and reglued it. http://i.imgur.com/fyZfiIp.jpg

 

And another from the rusty but trusty Honda Pilot...

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/zh2J30C.jpg

 

 

These temps are intense for me. Its an adventure to bundle up in all of my arctic gear I've only ever had the pleasure of using on the north slope in Alaska. I need to invest in one of those handheld thermometers with the little stainless probe deal attached to a wire that can give real time digital readouts. Curious what the temps are when I'm Bombing down gravel roads at 50 mph on the 4 wheeler.

That is pretty cold but the difference between 4 and -5 is shocking. Then things get real serious around -10 and beyond. Last year at my cabin in was -15 one morning and i grabbed my trailer jack handle to lift off the truck and it snapped off. I had to run a Coleman stove under my dozer for 2 hrs to get it started.

[van city]

I love the weather and climate, and I bust my butt to educate myself and make predictions on various timescales. I put all of my passion and energy into this stuff, so when my "work" is taken out of context and attacked in bad faith, it rubs me the wrong way sometimes, especially when the same group of people continue this behavior. I have no respect for it.

Phil, you are going to bust forecasts and be wrong this is part of the industry you are in. You can read models, make your forecasts but at the end of the day nobody can control the weather even Snow Wizard.

[luminen]

Phil, you are going to bust forecasts and be wrong this is part of the industry you are in. You can read models, make your forecasts but at the end of the day nobody can control the weather even Snow Wizard.

 

Snow Wizard can control the weather. He's a WIZARD. 

[Phil]

Just keep doing what you're doing because as I said you're posts are really smart, and if you're ever wrong bro just straight admit and I think nobody can ever say anything then.

Thing is, that's exactly what I did today. I brought up my mistake without anyone having called me on it, then Flatiron smells blood and jumps on it, taking it entirely out of context and blowing it out of proportion because he's an insecure little fella wanting to elevate himself.

 

Either that or he's upset about the November PDO number coming in at +1.88 or whatever. Noticing a trend there.

[Front Ranger]

0z NAM says Tue could be a close call for our Canadian friends, at least.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Thing is, that's exactly what I did today. I brought up my mistake without anyone having called me on it, then Flatiron smells blood and jumps on it, taking it entirely out of context and blowing it out of proportion because he's an insecure little fella wanting to elevate himself.

 

Either that or he's upset about the November PDO number coming in at +1.88 or whatever. Noticing a trend there.

Your the only human i know that argues with some of the world's smartest and fastest computers in the world.

[luminen]

Houston is nice and balmy with a 76/72 temp/DP. Dallas is 30F. 

[van city]

0z NAM says Tue could be a close call for our Canadian friends, at least.

Your Canadian friends are going to get hummed tomorrow.

[GHweatherChris]

I love the weather and climate, and I bust my butt to educate myself and make predictions on various timescales. I put all of my passion and energy into this stuff, so when my "work" is taken out of context and attacked in bad faith, it rubs me the wrong way sometimes, especially when the same group of people continue this behavior. I have no respect for it.

Pretty evident the problem is you, not everyone else.

 

Self assessing is a good thing, but you have to be willing to do it.

 

This is advice, not a jab.

[Weather101]

Houston is nice and balmy with a 76/72 temp/DP. Dallas is 30F.

Dallas was also 75F at noon today

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

0z NAM says Tue could be a close call for our Canadian friends, at least.

It has trended south the last few runs. Gfs is holding its ground for north tract. This feature is 100 miles away from bringing possible snow to seattle.

[Phil]

Phil is a smart guy. Uses a lot of big words and acronyms, too.

 

But keep in mind, he was downplaying this cold period as we were heading into it. Basically saying, it might result in a couple below normal days, but nothing noteworthy and the main period to watch would be later in December.

 

He could still end up being right - late December could end up being a bigger deal! Who knows...certainly not the models.

This is just 100% false. Nonsense. Stop making stuff up.

 

I said I thought the early December Arctic outbreaks being depicted in the clown range (back around thanksgiving) were mostly a modeling tease, and that the real Arctic air would invade the US towards the Holidays but might slide east.

[DareDuck]

That is pretty cold but the difference between 4 and -5 is shocking. Then things get real serious around -10 and beyond. Last year at my cabin in was -15 one morning and i grabbed my trailer jack handle to lift off the truck and it snapped off. I had to run a Coleman stove under my dozer for 2 hrs to get it started.

Eh it was -9 in Bend this morning when I drove to the bus for work. Didn't notice a big difference between that and a couple degrees above zero. I'm always prepared for what I go out in though so I don't find a lot of things cold. I do admit that after a couple minutes outside this morning the tip of my nose was ridiculously cold, but overall I was fine.