December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Or, maybe I've always thought this was a marginal event, and I'm simply not a fan of the (modeled) soundings?

 

You've turned this into something else. You took my words out of context, claimed I said things I didn't, and now you're saying I have ulterior motives. Give it a rest, dude.

This actually comes down to terrain induced microclimates which people who live here are more familiar with. This is one case where I'm in one of the best areas to score with this so I'm kind of thrilled. I'm fully prepared for it to not be much though.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This whole event seems to be focusing WAY west of what the models were showing even yesterday.   Was hoping the precip could make it far enough west to clip me and now the 00Z ECMWF shows it goes all the to Vancouver Island easily.   

 

Just as expected ... The swamp get the middle finger. LOL... Almost funny <_>

[Front Ranger]

The ECMWF is a bit faster than the GFS, but slower than it's 12z run. It takes a 1000mb low center just to the east of Seattle during the day tomorrow. Perfect track and a lot of moisture. People need to bear in mind the advantage of this situation is it creates a long period of northerly winds as the low moves northward. This has potential to be a decent event. At this point I would say anywhere on any kind of a hill will see at least some snow in the East Puget Sound lowlands.

 

These situations routinely bring snow lower than you would normally expect given 850mb temps and thickness values.

 

I think the ideal scenario for you would be the low tracking just south of your area. Similar to what happened in Feb 2001 with a very marginal air mass.

 

I don't like the northward trend with the 0z runs.

[Bryant]

Many areas will see snow in the air...some areas will see accumulations...and spots will see sizable accumulations.

Fair enough, I hope you're right

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 4

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122300/096/500h_anom.na.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I hope the nws busts on this big time.

[van city]

00z ECMWF Day 4

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122300/096/500h_anom.na.png

DJ is back...

[Gradient Keeper]

Models are pretty much pointless over the next 24-36 hours. Rely on upper air temps, pressure gradients, and hope your location is on the northerly-western side of circulation. Dynamic cooling and precip rates are key. Models aren't going to handle any of that worth a $hit. Many could be nicely surprised, especially in western WA.

[Phil]

You and everyone else. No one was ever claiming it was a great setup or a slam dunk.

Exactly, which makes your whining all the more bizarre. This is what I was saying from the start.

 

Now you're claiming I'm secretly rooting against snow because I'm playing this one conservatively. Just pick a fake attack line and stick with it..you're all over the place right now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I hope the nws busts on this big time.

Probably not on this one... The way they worded it is really broad. Unless this turns into a major sticking snow event. I do not see that. I see a marginal, melting snow event that does not amount to much for most. Those with elevation will fair better of course.

[BLI snowman]

I think the ideal scenario for you would be the low tracking just south of your area. Similar to what happened in Feb 2001 with a very marginal air mass.

 

I don't like the northward trend with the 0z runs.

There was pretty good Fraser River outflow ahead of that one though.

[van city]

Exactly, which makes your whining all the more bizarre.

Now you're claiming I'm secretly rooting against snow because I'm playing this one conservatively. Just pick a fake attack line and stick with it..you're all over the place right now.

Didn't you guys got over that already?

[GHweatherChris]

This whole event seems to be focusing WAY west of what the models were showing even yesterday. Was hoping the precip could make it far enough west to clip me and now the 00Z ECMWF shows it goes all the to Vancouver Island easily.

 

I am on board with the ECMWF and NAM, the only 2 showing any snow for my backyard.

[Phil]

Didn't you guys got over that already?

I thought so, but apparently he wants more.

[Gradient Keeper]

DJ is back...

When I am not fully engulfed in my FB group, Yeah. I like the fake Seattle NWS discussion earlier. Lol I forgot who did it.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122300/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Front Ranger]

There was pretty good Fraser River outflow ahead of that one though.

 

There was drier air in place, yes. Not cold, though...SEA was in the mid 40s the days leading up to the storm.

[Phil]

00z d11-16 GEFS is frigid looking to open January:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A5AAC93D-018E-400E-AB42-1D280F9CB43C_zpslcjlkbi3.png

[Front Ranger]

Day 5

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122300/120/500h_anom.na.png

 

Everything is a bit west of GFS.

[Phil]

Everything is a bit west of GFS.

The entire WHEM wavetrain actually shifted NE this run. That ULL in the NPAC jumped like 200 miles within the 1st 48hrs.

[Deweydog]

Euro restores order.

[BLI snowman]

There was drier air in place, yes. Not cold, though...SEA was in the mid 40s the days leading up to the storm.

It was definitely a way more suitable low level airmass, Bellingham had a daytime high of 34 on 2/15/2001 ahead of the storm, with strong NE winds.

[TT-SEA]

Euro restores order.

 

 

So ugly...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122300/ecmwf_T850a_namer_9.png

[Kayla]

So ugly...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122300/ecmwf_T850a_namer_9.png

 

It's not all that different than the GFS at day 8 besides slower timing.

[Phil]

First anticyclonic break over NEPAC/EPO area fails, but it's trying again further in clown range. Eventually it will succeed.

[HighlandExperience]

This whole event seems to be focusing WAY west of what the models were showing even yesterday. Was hoping the precip could make it far enough west to clip me and now the 00Z ECMWF shows it goes all the to Vancouver Island easily.

 

Snowfall is not as solid over western wa compared to last nights run. Of course Canadians get in on the action now.

[TT-SEA]

Snowfall is not as solid over western wa compared to last nights run. Of course Canadians get in on the action now.

 

 

The low is tracking too far west.    Sucks.  

 

Many runs showed the western extent of the precip over Utah and Montana this week... now the main push is north and west of us.    

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1445-mid-fall-2016-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=189450

[Phil]

Yuck, complete failure in the NPAC this run. Second breaker also ends up getting steamrolled.

[HighlandExperience]

The low is tracking too far west. Sucks.

 

Many runs showed the western extent of the precip over Utah and Montana this week... now the main push is north and west of us.

Will find out tommorow. Not expecting much but I hope to be surprised

[HighlandExperience]

Higher resolution WRF 1 1/3km looks decent for areas east of 167

[TT-SEA]

Higher resolution WRF 1 1/3km

 

 

So different than the ECMWF... its wrong at this point in the game.

[HighlandExperience]

So different than the ECMWF... its wrong at this point in the game.

You think the WRF is off? Amazing how much drier northern areas are on this run.

[ShawniganLake]

So different than the ECMWF... its wrong at this point in the game.

Yep.  Here was the WRF precip map for this evening.  And looking at current radar, the northern extent of the rain shield is clearly already across southern Vancouver Island.  Its raining at 41F in Victoria.

 

 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/timeindep/images_d4/wa_pcp1.07.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

You think the WRF is off? Amazing how much drier northern areas are on this run.

 

 

Way wrong on north and west extent of precip.   

[TT-SEA]

Yep.  Here was the WRF precip map for this evening.  And the northern extent of the rain shield is clearly already across southern Vancouver Island.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/timeindep/images_d4/wa_pcp1.07.0000.gif

 

 

7 hours in and already wrong.

[HighlandExperience]

Yep. Here was the WRF precip map for this evening. And looking at current radar, the northern extent of the rain shield is clearly already across southern Vancouver Island. Its raining at 41F in Victoria.

 

 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/timeindep/images_d4/wa_pcp1.07.0000.gif

Yup precip is already moving up too southern tip of Vancouver island.

[ShawniganLake]

Looking at the satellite its hard to imagine there will be much left to move through by this time tomorrow.  Looks like the faster and further NW track is playing out. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I dont buy it.

[MossMan]

Temp has been creeping down since the rain started, was at 42 at 8pm...now 38 and moderate rain.