Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 This is very disappointing... unless you live in Bellingham. LOL....dude. Models have been all over the place for snowfall with this. Moving the best accumulations up and down the Sound. They simply don't know. Anyone who has watched them in these situations should know this. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I'm still puzzled over the meltdown on here tonight. Things don't look that bad. The GEM is right back on track by day 10 after a brief period of milder weather. As for temps early next week. I still say highs well below freezing. 850s of -14, strong Fraser outflow, very low thicknesses, and weakest sun of the year. If I'm wrong I have no idea how it could be possible. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Let's just hope the northern energy doesn't completely lose ground, which the 00z runs are already flirting with by Wednesday/Thursday. Would be a pretty remarkable collapse if so. Pretty interesting to watch either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I missed tonight's 00z runs so far, what did I miss??? The possible beginnings of 2011 type model collapse. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I'm right here. I put my reputation on the line earlier today. Guaranteed an event topping Jan 2007, money back guaranteed. I knew that if this event was indeed jinxable, that would do the trick. Had to put it to the test.Haha. Maybe you'll take my place as public enemy #1. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 LOL....dude. Models have been all over the place for snowfall with this. Moving the best accumulations up and down the Sound. They simply don't know. Anyone who has watched them in these situations should know this. And of course he didn't show the WRF. So predictable. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 The 00z GFS, GEM and UKMET have all looked bad tonight but I'm not worried. The reason that we don't get cold is because of that low that's suppose to weaken and head to California, it doesnt. It strengthens and curves north stopping the coldest air from reaching us. It's still 3-4 days out for that system to form and head inland. The 12z EURO should have seen this first if there was any validity to it. In the next model runs, models can weaken it. Onto the 00z EURO.Wow, last night nearly killed you,But you are still optimistic tonight? Now I totally get you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Pretty interesting to watch either way. I am a weirdo and I dream of endless strings of cold clear weather. I was mildly disappointed that Dec 08' didn't reach its cold anomaly potential. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I missed tonight's 00z runs so far, what did I miss???Warmer. ... wierd, sketchy, discouraging! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 The GEM is cold at day 10. Just wanted to make sure people know that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 The possible beginnings of 2011 type model collapse. That was from like 4-5+ days out mainly. Which is ALWAYS suspect. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I'm right here. I put my reputation on the line earlier today. Guaranteed an event topping Jan 2007, money back guaranteed. I knew that if this event was indeed jinxable, that would do the trick. Had to put it to the test. It's possible our January's are becoming like the Cubs...But one year...It'll happen...Maybe this year! If not maybe next year! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Warmer. ... wierd, sketchy, discouraging! Not really. ECMWF ensemble.... Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 2008 had the bad stretch of model runs too. Granted they did not occur this close to the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 And of course he didn't show the WRF. So predictable. I did show it. Look above Jim. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 That was from like 4-5+ days out mainly. Which is ALWAYS suspect. So would this be worse? 2005 worthy? Remember that 1-2 day FREAKOUT leading up to Dec 08'. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 It almost becomes unenjoyable when people get like this. It's going to get cold and it's going to snow. Sheesh. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 The GEM is cold at day 10. Just wanted to make sure people know that. Day 10?! Wow!! Omg!! That is awesome!!!!!!!!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 It's possible our January's are becoming like the Cubs...But one year...It'll happen...Maybe this year! If not maybe next year! It happened for the Cubs this year... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Definitely. It has shifted the best zone to the south. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow48.48.0000.gif Look at that from 25 minutes ago... so predictable! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 BTW the GEM is cold at day 10. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 The GEM is cold at day 10. Just wanted to make sure people know that. I'd say you're reaching. Pretty bad run, it happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Day 10?! Wow!! Omg!! That is awesome!!!!!!!!! And for most of the time before it too. This is so ridiculous. There are like 3 mild days on there. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 BTW the GEM is cold at day 10. KOLD Gonna have to stay up for the EURO tonight. If it stays true I will feel a lot better. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I'd say you're reaching. Pretty bad run, it happens. People are WAY over-reacting. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 It almost becomes unenjoyable when people get like this. It's going to get cold and it's going to snow. Sheesh.Somehow, you're going to get completely screwed in the snowfall department again. Just watch. (jk). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I like you, Phil! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I'm done on here tonight. Have fun whining. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 And for most of the time before it too. This is so ridiculous. There are like 3 mild days on there. I buy the argument this was a one run blip more than trying to say these runs weren't that bad. They were pretty bad compared to what the models had been showing. I just have a hard time believing this will be a trend, I sure hope not. If anything the GFS had been trending BETTER almost every run. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I like you, Phil!I like you too! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Whoooahhhh -7 at Burns, OR already. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 So would this be worse? 2005 worthy? Remember that 1-2 day FREAKOUT leading up to Dec 08'. It would probably be comparable to 2005 if this somehow trends dramatically worse and we're left with a glancing blow. Possible given tonight's dramatic jump but still pretty unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Let's let KING EURO handle this. Relax y'all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I buy the argument this was a one run blip more than trying to say these runs weren't that bad. They were pretty bad compared to what the models had been showing. I just have a hard time believing this will be a trend, I sure hope not. If anything the GFS had been trending BETTER almost every run.If the trend continues on the ECMWF and subsequent modeling over the next 12-24hrs, I'll think more of it. As of now, especially given the incredibly complex nature of the upcoming pattern progression, I'm skeptical this is anything more than a blip. I could be wrong though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 People are WAY over-reacting.People are reacting...Relative what could have been. if euro doesn't hold its ground, no matter how much better than our normal climate weather, this will still be a let down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I buy the argument this was a one run blip more than trying to say these runs weren't that bad. They were pretty bad compared to what the models had been showing. I just have a hard time believing this will be a trend, I sure hope not. If anything the GFS had been trending BETTER almost every run. I'd have a tougher time believing there isn't some validity to the solutions. I can't recall too many times when three models jumped on something big within 84 hours and then reversed course again afterwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 People are reacting...Relative what could have been. if euro doesn't hold its ground, no matter how much better than our normal climate weather, this will still be a let downWelcome back! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Looks like we'll be surpassing 2005 as the biggest bust in recent memory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Armature hr on here tonight. Our best and biggest snows have been with a pattern similar to the 00z. Sometimes it works out and other times it dont. Ten years can pass and we may not even have the potential like we do now. Sit back and relax. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Heavy snow isn't posting the ukmet so it mustSuck too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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