January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[VancouverIslandSouth]

993mb low into central Oregon Tuesday. -euro

 

The southward track sure has it moving rapidly, it's as if the block collapses on it and ejects it through the path of least resistance.

[BLI snowman]

Precip amounts on the cold side of that midweek low are trending more towards pathetic anyways. It doesn't look likely to be a >2" setup for anyone on the westside at this point.

[Kayla]

Precip amounts on the cold side of that midweek low are trending more towards pathetic anyways. It doesn't look likely to be a >2" setup for anyone on the westside at this point.

 

Models have been all over the place. Tonights euro just brings the low in way too far south. Plenty of changes to come I'm sure over the next 72 hours.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The southward track sure has it moving rapidly, it's as if the block collapses on it and ejects it through the path of least resistance.

Really looking to be a great winter in southern Oregon ..I hope Portland can get some too. Seems like they are so close but so far from something good. They are due! I think this next week will be much better down there! Fingers crossed for our neighbors!

[Deweydog]

Models have been all over the place. Tonights euro just brings the low in way too far south. Plenty of changes to come I'm sure over the next 72 hours.

It's not a low position issue. It's a system issue as the low is decaying and not really wrapping up with any significant deformation in a borderline air mass.

[BLI snowman]

Models have been all over the place. Tonights euro just brings the low in way too far south. Plenty of changes to come I'm sure over the next 72 hours.

 

More latitude would definitely help at face value, but the juicier solutions shown on some earlier runs look to be backing off. No one would do too great with the 00z GFS or 00z Euro. Which corresponds with the idea of a weaker, filling low. And of course weaker usually means southward as well.

[Deweydog]

Really looking to be a great winter in southern Oregon ..I hope Portland can get some too. Seems like they are so close but so far from something good. They are due! I think this next week will be much better down there! Fingers crossed for our neighbors!

This is worse.

[Perturbed Member]

Love this. I hope you guys can actually finally score down there. It is looking pretty good right now.

 

Do you really? Sarcasm?

 

How much have you had to drink?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Well, it is not that bad you get used to it after a few years of it happening multiple times. at least it was close and you may have more chances coming up. Fingers crossed!

 

Well tomorrow's another day with a new set of possibilities. Might even get some good old fashion rain; I'm starting to miss it.

[HighlandExperience]

Really looking to be a great winter in southern Oregon ..I hope Portland can get some too. Seems like they are so close but so far from something good. They are due! I think this next week will be much better down there! Fingers crossed for our neighbors!

This block must die. Time to start over!

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF does show about an inch of snow across most of the King County on Tuesday morning.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

This is worse.

Just have come to accept what we get or don't get does not matter. I really do hope you can score down there. It's all okay. Let's see how the winter plays out maybe we will all do well. Time will tell.

[HighlandExperience]

00Z ECMWF does show about an inch of snow across most of the King County on Tuesday morning.

Maybe that will entice snowwiz back

[luvssnow_spokane]

Do you really? Sarcasm?

 

How much have you had to drink?

yes I really do and nothing to drink. Just accepting the fact it is what it is and just letting the passion and hope go. I really do like to see others do well and our time will come some day. It's all good!

[TT-SEA]

Well tomorrow's another day with a new set of possibilities. Might even get some good old fashion rain; I'm starting to miss it.

 

 

00Z ECMWF shows 3-4 inches of snow over a good part of Vancouver Island tomorrow... except right near the water.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe that will entice snowwiz back

 

 

Not sure... its very quick moving so not sure its accurate.   And it still shows upper 30s that day so it would be gone rather quickly.    

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well tomorrow's another day with a new set of possibilities. Might even get some good old fashion rain; I'm starting to miss it.

Yep... some rain would be a nice change for awhile then back to cold and snow later on I hope. Fun to see how it plays out.

[van city]

00Z ECMWF shows 3-4 inches of snow over a good part of Vancouver Island tomorrow... except right near the water.

Can you post the Snowfall map.

[Timmy Supercell]

Well today definitely panned out as forecast. Winter Storm Warning said 3-6 inches, I got 5" today. 

 

Most interesting was the part entering the snow event. It was still arctic with temps below 10 when it started to snow. (just yesterday I had a low of -19 with a high of 7, hadn't cooled much that next evening/night, stayed above 0.)

 

Then quickly climbed from 14-32 degrees from 7:53am to 9:53am. Eventually light rain fell in the afternoon, occasionally mixing with flakes at 34-37 degrees.

[Lisa0527]

00Z ECMWF shows 3-4 inches of snow over a good part of Vancouver Island tomorrow... except right near the water.

Just wondering what it show for Vancouver tomorrow?

[TT-SEA]

Can you post the Snowfall map.

 

Through Monday morning...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well today definitely panned out as forecast. Winter Storm Warning said 3-6 inches, I got 5" today. 

 

Most interesting was the part entering the snow event. It was still arctic with temps below 10 when it started to snow. (just yesterday I had a low of -19 with a high of 7, hadn't cooled much that next evening/night, stayed above 0.)

 

Then quickly climbed from 14-32 degrees from 7:53am to 9:53am. Eventually light rain fell in the afternoon, occasionally mixing with flakes at 34-37 degrees.

 

You'll end up freezing that solid and getting a couple inches on top. The one thing about Klamath is you probably won't get a big rain to wash it all away...Over here we often get a "pineapple express." Or....

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00Z ECMWF shows 3-4 inches of snow over a good part of Vancouver Island tomorrow... except right near the water.

 

It's going to be pretty borderline here in Victoria even away from the water, we don't have the optimal setup for cold damming but we are in the path of the outflow. I did just take another look out and it is snowing lightly here right now at 38F, amazing the temperatures snow can fall at with dry air. Oddly enough the dewpoint has fallen while the temperature hasn't budged a bit under steady precipitation.

[Kayla]

More latitude would definitely help at face value, but the juicier solutions shown on some earlier runs look to be backing off. No one would do too great with the 00z GFS or 00z Euro. Which corresponds with the idea of a weaker, filling low. And of course weaker usually means southward as well.

 

Yeah great point, didn't even notice the strength of the low or lack thereof. Point still being though that these are some pretty small changes that could shift our way or not over the next 72 hours. Still not really a trend one way or another, yet.

[Timmy Supercell]

You'll end up freezing that solid and getting a couple inches on top. The one thing about Klamath is you probably won't get a big rain to wash it all away...Over here we often get a "pineapple express." Or....

 

 

Yeah, mostly true. I recall a few all-day moderate rain events in winter here but definitely no where close to a real express in Portland.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah great point, didn't even notice the strength of the low or lack thereof. Point still being though that these are some pretty small changes that could shift our way or not over the next 72 hours. Still not really a trend one way or another, yet.

 

Yeah, it will change again before Tuesday night for sure.

[OKwx2k4]

You'll end up freezing that solid and getting a couple inches on top. The one thing about Klamath is you probably won't get a big rain to wash it all away...Over here we often get a "pineapple express." Or....

 

What a well timed photo. Lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What a well timed photo. Lol

 

That is the famed Mark Nelsen from his younger years...

 

I've seen it has been pretty cold out in Oklahoma, but a big warm up is on the way. 

[Deweydog]

Euro says Alaska may have some winter.

[Perturbed Member]

Rod Hill has foreseen something...

 

http://www.portlandweather.com/assets/images/7DayForecastTemplatePM.jpg

 

 

"WEDNESDAY:  A good chance of snow, heaviest in the morning, 2-4" of possible accumulation. "

 

 

Book it. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Rod Hill has foreseen something...

 

http://www.portlandweather.com/assets/images/7DayForecastTemplatePM.jpg

 

 

"WEDNESDAY: A good chance of snow, heaviest in the morning, 2-4" of possible accumulation. "

 

 

 

Book it.

Nice!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Rod Hill has foreseen something...

 

http://www.portlandweather.com/assets/images/7DayForecastTemplatePM.jpg

 

 

"WEDNESDAY:  A good chance of snow, heaviest in the morning, 2-4" of possible accumulation. "[/size]

 

 

Book it. [/size]

That dude is crazy. I have seen him drink more than any other person i know. At one time he was sponsored by Budweiser.

[Bryant]

Things still look shitty for western washington... next!

[luterra]

00Z Euro brings the midweek low through Tuesday afternoon, never really reloads the Columbia basin cold pool, then sends warm air up to 60º latitude by hour 240.  Uncertainty is the rule...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Things still look shitty for western washington... next!

Yah... but at least we may have a chance at some point. Lots of winter left and things could change.

[Jesse]

Euro says Alaska may have some winter.

The beginnings of our 1989 redux at the end of the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The beginnings of our 1989 redux at the end of the month.

 

The blast will initiate on January 29th and I will be stranded in Kansas City at one of the crummiest airports in America until crews can clear the runway at PDX. 

[DareDuck]

Well today definitely panned out as forecast. Winter Storm Warning said 3-6 inches, I got 5" today.

 

Most interesting was the part entering the snow event. It was still arctic with temps below 10 when it started to snow. (just yesterday I had a low of -19 with a high of 7, hadn't cooled much that next evening/night, stayed above 0.)

 

Then quickly climbed from 14-32 degrees from 7:53am to 9:53am. Eventually light rain fell in the afternoon, occasionally mixing with flakes at 34-37 degrees.

Got about 6" in Bend. Snow depth is up to 2' with snow banks lining the streets of 3-5'. Got up to 16 around 10am then dropped to 9 throughout most of the day, now at 5. Hoping the transition from snow to rain is quick tomorrow because there could be significant damage from ice on all this snow.

[OKwx2k4]

That is the famed Mark Nelsen from his younger years...

 

I've seen it has been pretty cold out in Oklahoma, but a big warm up is on the way.

Going to be nice for a few days. Got a few days to prepare for what looks like a January 2009 repeat. Going to be disgusting. 2.5 inches of ice is devastating out here in the wooded areas where I live.

[Tyler Mode]

28 degrees and raining here.  The roads are a sheet of ice. Will be interesting to see how things play out during the day.

 

The gradient through the gorge is at 13 mb, strongest in years.  Crown Point gusted to 89 mph.

 

Won't be getting many reliable wind speeds soon as things ice up.