January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

With only the day or two of dewpoint deep inland on the Fraser near 70 per year would come close to rival THI of a typical midwest or east coast summer heat day. PNW coast heat save a day or two a year is not the same...just look at any GDD map. 90* with a 60 dewpoint is not the same as 90* with a 74 dewpoint back east.

I visited my godmother in Yuma, AZ several years back when it was 115+ degrees. Still horrible, but it felt very different than humid heat.

 

Definitely less taxing on me physically, but also dehydrated my body much more quickly. Almost snuck up on me, because here I was, thinking "this ain't so bad", when I noticed I was starting to get dizzy. Had no idea because my sweat was evaporating almost instantaneously.

 

Back east, you'll usually succumb to heat stroke before dehydration takes you down..not in AZ lol.

[Front Ranger]

I still remember Andrew making a post stating that it looked like there was nothing interesting coming up for the lowlands for a long time judging by the models at the tail end of the early December event. That didn't work out too well.

 

I think once we get on the other side of the upcoming pattern change midweek, where we go next could start to come into focus a little better.

 

Andrew says a lot of stuff...

[dairyd]

I should have clarified then. I was only talking about absolute temperatures. 

 

Portland's all time high of 107 beats many east coast and midwest cities. Although this says nothing about how the airmass feels to a human being obviously.

 

Yes the high may beat the other cities but the air will not constantly have more heat in it thanks to the cold pacific current moderating the air mass.  In this region only when you get offshore flow do you get the high temps you stated but that is usually accompanied by dry air and thus less latent heat.  Thankfully, it is also why we don't get a lot of severe weather develop in this region, at least not in the lowlands. 

[Phil]

I should have clarified then. I was only talking about absolute temperatures.

 

Portland's all time high of 107 beats many east coast and midwest cities. Although this says nothing about how the airmass feels to a human being obviously.

That's about on-par with most of our records, which generally sit in the 105-110 range. Very hard to make it above 110 here simply because there's so much water in the air-masses.

[Phil]

For anyone that cares or has an answer - I am in a position that I can move anywhere on the continent, provided that I have at least a gigabit connection available to me. My wife is open to anywhere that is west of Montana and north of Brookings, but has veto'd Spokanistan and Boise. I was thinking if I can find fiber in Whitefish or Kalispell, we might move there in a year or so, but I am open to Calgary or Banff as well.

 

Anyone have suggestions on where this Winter Snow, Summer Severe, Internet paradise might be?

Chicago? Minneapolis? If you want legitimate severe, don't move west of the Rockies.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Personally, I really like the PNW climate overall, but I did intentionally buy in a slightly snowier location than most of the southern island. I couldn't deal with the lack of snow in Victoria. And although it will be sad to see our snow melt, it has been on the ground since December 5th. A heavy rain event and a possible wind storm should keep things interesting.

 

This year I moved from one of the worst parts of Victoria proper to one of the best parts of Victoria proper for snow. I would have loved to have moved further north as snowfall increases substantially once you get to the Malahat but life constraints (employment etc.) got in the way. That said, ignoring weather, Victoria is a great city for lifestyle. I can walk 5 minutes to get to the grocery store where I live, 15 minutes walk to the malls/buses to the ferry/airport, and I can walk to work downtown; yet still live in a quiet friendly neighbourhood where people will say "hi" to you when you're walking down the street. The layout of the city and job prospects are far better than Nanaimo and being close to schools and the university will be a plus in the future as well. So there are life trade offs that make up for the lack of interesting weather.

 

If the Victoria housing market turned into Vancouver 2.0 I'd be tempted to sell out and move up somewhere in the Nanoose - Campbell River area. I prefer the scenery/beaches/parks/climate up there a lot more than what we have on the south island. It is more of a retirement community resort type area though, so not much in terms of job prospects unless you cater to those industries or can pull off remote work.

[Phil]

When I lived on the Gulf coast, I remember a 92 with a dewpoint of 83. You could see your breath. I almost fainted after walking a couple of blocks. That was worse that the 103 we had here a few years back - even without air conditioning here. Our April-October climate is incredible here!

I kinda like seeing my breath when it's in the 80s/90s.

 

Reminds me of winter.

[jaya]

I kinda like seeing my breath when it's in the 80s.

 

Reminds me of winter.

[jaya]

Ugh!

[Jesse]

Andrew says a lot of stuff...

This is true. My point was that there was a lull in the models around that time from him to overreact to.

[whitechristmas]

Very interesting post by Mark Nelsen just came out!

[Jesse]

Yes the high may beat the other cities but the air will not constantly have more heat in it thanks to the cold pacific current moderating the air mass. In this region only when you get offshore flow do you get the high temps you stated but that is usually accompanied by dry air and thus less latent heat. Thankfully, it is also why we don't get a lot of severe weather develop in this region, at least not in the lowlands.

I really wish we could get more severe weather around here.

[Front Ranger]

Chicago? Minneapolis? If you want legitimate severe, don't move west of the Rockies.

 

Dude...did you not catch the part about his wife's preferences? Those usually play a significant role.

[Front Ranger]

This is true. My point was that there was a lull in the models around that time from him to overreact to.

 

Yeah. But the lull in LR promise we're seeing now is new, at least since late November.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow Troutdale gusting to 55mph on the 9pm hour.

[Phil]

For anyone that cares or has an answer - I am in a position that I can move anywhere on the continent, provided that I have at least a gigabit connection available to me. My wife is open to anywhere that is west of Montana and north of Brookings, but has veto'd Spokanistan and Boise. I was thinking if I can find fiber in Whitefish or Kalispell, we might move there in a year or so, but I am open to Calgary or Banff as well.

 

Anyone have suggestions on where this Winter Snow, Summer Severe, Internet paradise might be?

Though ironically, I doubt any major metro area can match the east coast cities in frequency of multi-foot blizzards, at least not in today's climate era. Not even Chicago, Minneapolis, or Denver can compare over the last 20 years.

 

That said, you also have a few dud years in there too.

[Deweydog]

Yeah. But the lull in LR promise we're seeing now is new, at least since late November.

Should have killed that block sooner...

[Front Ranger]

For anyone that cares or has an answer - I am in a position that I can move anywhere on the continent, provided that I have at least a gigabit connection available to me. My wife is open to anywhere that is west of Montana and north of Brookings, but has veto'd Spokanistan and Boise. I was thinking if I can find fiber in Whitefish or Kalispell, we might move there in a year or so, but I am open to Calgary or Banff as well.

 

Anyone have suggestions on where this Winter Snow, Summer Severe, Internet paradise might be?

 

Central Idaho (if you can find good internet) or Canadian Rockies like you mention is probably your best bet in that geographic region.

 

Obviously nowhere in the PNW or western Rockies is very good for summer severe.

[Phil]

Dude...did you not catch the part about his wife's preferences? Those usually play a significant role.

Sure, but I was responding to his severe weather question. Not gonna find much of that west of the Rockies.

[Front Ranger]

Should have killed that block sooner...

 

Woulda really ruined this past week, though...

[Phil]

Central Idaho (if you can find good internet) or Canadian Rockies like you mention is probably your best bet in that geographic region.

 

Obviously nowhere in the PNW or western Rockies is very good for summer severe.

Population-adjusted severe weather climatology is fairly straightforward here. Moisture is a limiting factor out west.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2013/ANY.png

[Front Ranger]

Though ironically, I doubt any major metro area can match the east coast cities in frequency of multi-foot blizzards, at least not in today's climate era. Not even Chicago, Minneapolis, or Denver can compare over the last 20 years.

 

We may fall short over the past 20 years in 2'+ blizzards, but I'm pretty sure Denver metro gets about as many big snowstorms (10"+) as any major metro area. 

 

I've probably seen 20 in the 10 years I've been here. And that's not the foothills outside of town, that right here in the urban corridor.

[Jesse]

For anyone that cares or has an answer - I am in a position that I can move anywhere on the continent, provided that I have at least a gigabit connection available to me. My wife is open to anywhere that is west of Montana and north of Brookings, but has veto'd Spokanistan and Boise. I was thinking if I can find fiber in Whitefish or Kalispell, we might move there in a year or so, but I am open to Calgary or Banff as well.

 

Anyone have suggestions on where this Winter Snow, Summer Severe, Internet paradise might be?

Live my dream and move to Whitefish.

[Deweydog]

Woulda really ruined this past week, though...

It was a joke. Obviously this whole scenario would not have been possible without the last gasp effort of that feature. That was a good call.

[Deweydog]

Population-adjusted severe weather climatology is fairly straightforward here. Moisture is a limiting factor out west.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2013/ANY.png

Is this some kind of election result breakdown?

[Front Ranger]

It was a joke. Obviously this whole scenario would not have been possible without the last gasp effort of that feature. That was a good call.

 

It certainly picked the right way to die. 

 

I hope the same can be said of me someday.

[Deweydog]

It certainly picked the right way to die.

 

I hope the same can be said of me someday.

I like the idea of being taken out by a massive Rossby Wave on my 90th birthday.

[Phil]

We may fall short over the past 20 years in 2'+ blizzards, but I'm pretty sure Denver metro gets about as many big snowstorms (10"+) as any major metro area.

 

I've probably seen 20 in the 10 years I've been here. And that's not the foothills outside of town, that right here in the urban corridor.

I guess it depends on your preferences. For me, waiting a few years for a huge blizzard makes the experience much more special, versus a bunch of 6-12" stuff (which we also get from

time to time but less frequently).

 

There's nothing more fun, IMO, than watching a storm bomb out over the Gulf Stream, and drop 30-40" in 24hrs, sometimes with frequent lightning and 50+mph winds. If I have to sacrifice a few years between storms, I'm cool with that.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

For anyone that cares or has an answer - I am in a position that I can move anywhere on the continent, provided that I have at least a gigabit connection available to me. My wife is open to anywhere that is west of Montana and north of Brookings, but has veto'd Spokanistan and Boise. I was thinking if I can find fiber in Whitefish or Kalispell, we might move there in a year or so, but I am open to Calgary or Banff as well.

 

Anyone have suggestions on where this Winter Snow, Summer Severe, Internet paradise might be?

 

I would rank Rossland BC pretty highly. You won't see summer storms as severe as you would east of the Rockies but they certainly get their share of storms. Winter there is something else though, heavy snow is guaranteed and the town has a great atmosphere to accommodate it. I'm not certain about internet connection but it's close enough to Trail that they may have already brought fiber through.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like rain is finally showing up on the radar for the first time in about a week here. The 0z GFS really backed off on rainfall totals for the initial hit. The rain shadow is a lot larger and everything is shifted north. This would be considered a pretty big bust if it were snowfall. The two lows coming in late week look more interesting and the second wave of moisture from this should have more push to it. I do like the prospect of some wet snow and storminess later in the week.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_pcp48.48.0000.gif

[luminen]

For anyone that cares or has an answer - I am in a position that I can move anywhere on the continent, provided that I have at least a gigabit connection available to me. My wife is open to anywhere that is west of Montana and north of Brookings, but has veto'd Spokanistan and Boise. I was thinking if I can find fiber in Whitefish or Kalispell, we might move there in a year or so, but I am open to Calgary or Banff as well.

 

Anyone have suggestions on where this Winter Snow, Summer Severe, Internet paradise might be?

 

I'm looking at Revelstoke and Nelson, BC. Both are gorgeous and have great climates. Calgary gets decent warm season storms but I don't want to live there. The Rockies is where its at.   You'll never go hungry for snow there. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I'm looking at Revelstoke and Nelson, BC. Both are gorgeous and have great climates. Calgary gets decent warm season storms but I don't want to live there. The Rockies is where its at.   You'll never go hungry for snow there. 

 

I would avoid Calgary. Some winters it can have less snow that Victoria. They tend to get lots of dry cold or warm downsloping in the winter. Their big winter weather tends to happen in the spring; an April or May snowstorm is almost the norm. They do get the severe summer storms and it has snowed in July / August there in recent years, but the baron landscape would really get to me there. It's hard to go wrong with the Kootenays for scenery and weather enjoyment.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like rain is finally showing up on the radar for the first time in about a week here. The 0z GFS really backed off on rainfall totals for the initial hit. The rain shadow is a lot larger and everything is shifted north. This would be considered a pretty big bust if it were snowfall. The two lows coming in late week look more interesting and the second wave of moisture from this should have more push to it. I do like the prospect of some wet snow and storminess later in the week.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_pcp48.48.0000.gif

 

 

Models definitely looking less 'floody' tonight.   

[Heavy Snow]

Nothing will compare again. Just awesome that it happened.

It has been an absolute dreamscape.

 

Well said! I've been enjoying the conditions outside as much as I can. We will remember this one for years to come.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Models definitely looking less 'floody' tonight.   

 

Yep, it's looking like a gradual thaw out with this initial batch of rain and by the time the heavier stuff hits there won't be as much runoff. The big difference is that the initial batch of moisture is now predicted to come in well north of where it was shown to come in on the 18z and 12z.

[snow_wizard]

There seems to a theme emerging of a two step retrogression of the Hudson Bay block. First step puts a ridge over us and then step two takes it to Alaska. We might be in business again around Feb 1.

[Timmy]

Models definitely looking less 'floody' tonight.

that is great news!

[snow_wizard]

I just wanted to make a comment on Tim's post that said nothing like this will happen again. Past history begs to differ. Events like this or better used to happen a lot more often and even more recently happened in 1993. If you look at the period 1916 through 1937 there were five winters that featured long lasting deep cold with lots of sunny days in January. That's an average of over two per decade. After that you had more of the same in 1943, 1949, 1950, 1957, 1963, 1979. Also a nice streak of cold weather with snow on the ground in late Jan / early Feb 1972.

[Timmy]

Well said! I've been enjoying the conditions outside as much as I can. We will remember this one for years to come.

And just think, you almost ended it all not even a month ago!

[snow_wizard]

The cold is pretty much done. It was 30 here earlier now it's almost up to 31. Way milder than recent evenings. Hopefully this reset will help the have nots get some snow later on.