January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

First wave of precip in the morning will be ice everywhere. I'm hopeful we can avoid the second wave being ice here in Clark County, might just be a lot of cold rain again here.

 

Depends what part of the county. I am not sure how quickly we will mix out south of 18th Street and east of 205 tomorrow.

 

Honestly I can imagine PDX scoring another sub-freezing high.

[DareDuck]

It still boggles my mind that Eugene scored a 7" snow event on the second day of spring, 2012. Such an anomaly. I usually consider winter pretty much over down here the 3rd week of February.

I remember waking up around 4-5am to see the snow starting to fall and it just kept coming. My roommate and I went out to the park at 5am to play in the snow. That was such an incredible day for so late in the season.

[Jesse]

That was an incredible storm. It snowed 8.5" at my brothers in south Eugene, 4" in Salem and Silverton, and 20" up here.

 

We must have had 2-3" here. After one of PDX's latest sub-40 highs on record. That was one for the books.

 

All while the Midwest and East coast were basking in record breaking summer like warmth.

[Deweydog]

Depends what part of the county. I am not sure how quickly we will mix out south of 18th Street and east of 205 tomorrow.

 

Honestly I can imagine PDX scoring another sub-freezing high.

I doubt PDX stays below freezing through midnight tomorrow night. With such a warm air mass, just the precip rates themselves should initiate some mixing. Should be enough to get everyone away from the immediate proximity of the gorge above freezing once it gets going.

[Jesse]

I doubt PDX stays below freezing through midnight tomorrow night. With such a warm air mass, just the precip rates themselves should initiate some mixing. Should be enough to get everyone away from the immediate proximity of the gorge above freezing once it gets going.

 

Mark seems bullish on this one. Going with a high of 31 at PDX tomorrow.

 

I don't know if the warmer upper levels will mean a lot with a surface airmass with temps likely in the 20s at the onset of morning precip and DPs still in the teens. As long as the flow remains easterly that spells below freezing temperatures/freezing rain to me, at least through tomorrow night.

[BLI snowman]

Depends what part of the county. I am not sure how quickly we will mix out south of 18th Street and east of 205 tomorrow.

 

Honestly I can imagine PDX scoring another sub-freezing high.

Definitely possible. East winds may hold on until Wednesday morning.

 

You will likely start as freezing rain with the heavier evening precip tomorrow. I think I'll be slowly mixing out by afternoon up this way, during the break between bands.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

March 22, 2012

 

 

[Deweydog]

Mark seems bullish on this one. Going with a high of 31 at PDX tomorrow.

I'd go with 34 by midnight. Not an easy call, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Dave]

Mark seems bullish on this one. Going with a high of 31 at PDX tomorrow.

Always bet on Mark during these setups.  He seems to have a knack for these tricky borderline forecasts since moving to Corbett.

[Deweydog]

That's a lot of snow even for my location.

[Dave]

March 22, 2012

 

 

Amazing for late March.  Sorry you had to go through the ex's FB.  Lol.  

[Jesse]

March 22, 2012

 

 

 

March 2012

[Jesse]

 

Looks like an amazing event up there

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly... there is also a large ice storm in the middle of the country.    

 

Lots of posts from family and friends about school closures tomorrow.

 

Are all the schools in the Portland area also preemptively closed?

[Jesse]

March 22, 2012

 

 

 

You should put these in you're sig

[BLI snowman]

March 22, 2012

 

 

Quote snow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing for late March. Sorry you had to go through the ex's FB. Lol.

No worries we are fairly cordial. I also saw some pics from

March 13,2012 when we got 10". But I figured I would wait until March to post those .

[BLI snowman]

Interestingly... there is also a large ice storm in the middle of the country.

 

Lots of posts from family and friends about school closures tomorrow.

 

Are all the schools in the Portland area also preemptively closed?

Portland Public Schools announced their closure already. Not sure about Clark County.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interestingly... there is also a large ice storm in the middle of the country.

 

Lots of posts from family and friends about school closures tomorrow.

 

Are all the schools in the Portland area also preemptively closed?

I know Beaverton is.

[Jesse]

 

 

Interestingly... there is also a large ice storm in the middle of the country.    

 

Lots of posts from family and friends about school closures tomorrow.

 

Are all the schools in the Portland area also preemptively closed?

 

I'm not sure if they are yet.

[Timmy Supercell]

 

Over here that would be inconceivable for March. That would be a several decades March snow in K-Falls.

 

Do you remember the max depth in March 2012 there?

[luminen]

Welp, it's 40F and raining at 100% RH. Feels downright balmy after the nice drier air we've grown accustomed to.

[TT-SEA]

Were schools in the Portland area in session last week other than Tuesday?

[Timmy]

Were schools in the Portland area in session last week other than Tuesday?

No

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No

Tomorrow is the 9th snow day lol

[Blizzard777]

29 in lake Oswego, winds calm

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Over here that would be inconceivable for March. That would be a several decades March snow in K-Falls.

 

Do you remember the max depth in March 2012 there?

My max depth was after this storm, I had 40" that month and 13" on February 29th but it melted between storms. This snowfall stayed on the ground the longest because we had a few dry days after it. I remember that weekend I had highs in the low 50s with 6" or so of snow left on the ground. My last snow that year was 2.5" on April 4th

[Timmy]

Temps are running 9f warmer in scappoose now. I haven't been home for awhile but tonight it is currently 29f and betting that is quite a bit warmer than it has been at this hour for weeks.

[Timmy Supercell]

My max depth was after this storm, I had 40" that month and 13" on February 29th but it melted between storms. This snowfall stayed on the ground the longest because we had a few dry days after it. I remember that weekend I had highs in the low 50s with 6" or so of snow left on the ground. My last snow that year was 2.5" on April 4th

 

The most March snow our old station recorded (with what data was available) was 20.20" in 1948.

[dairyd]

Hires NAM seems to have a lock on the radar tonight, is halving precip amounts from GFS.  The jet seems to be contorting this system more and more to the NE.  NWS still going with GFS precip amounts.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017011700/namconus_apcpn_nwus_28.png

[snow_wizard]

Depends what part of the county. I am not sure how quickly we will mix out south of 18th Street and east of 205 tomorrow.

 

Honestly I can imagine PDX scoring another sub-freezing high.

I'm skeptical. Just too much warm air in the picture now. This is quite a bit different than a typical transition situation.

[snow_wizard]

Thank God the ensemble means have been way different than the 0z GFS in how they handle the second step of the retrogression. This run is horrible. Hopefully the ensembles will continue the idea of raising heights over Alaska again after day 10.

[wx_statman]

That was an incredible storm. It snowed 8.5" at my brothers in south Eugene, 4" in Salem and Silverton, and 20" up here.

 

A week after Bandon scored 3.5"

[wx_statman]

FWIW, we could see the first 7 day streak of sub-33 maximums at PDX since December 1990.

 

Tomorrow has to cooperate though.

[snow_wizard]

I stopped by Green Lake today and the ice was just over 2 inches thick.

 

It was solid enough to feel comfortable walking on and I couldn't break all the way through even stomping repeatedly on the same spot.

 

Pretty remarkable and something I wasn't sure I would ever see.

Could well be the first time it has ever happened with no sub freezing highs. Impressive duration and consistently cold nights were enough. At least this means we are still due for a top tier Fraser River blast. The last one was really in Feb 2011. Jan 2012 would probably qualify in areas north of Seattle.

[wx_statman]

We must have had 2-3" here. After one of PDX's latest sub-40 highs on record. That was one for the books.

 

All while the Midwest and East coast were basking in record breaking summer like warmth.

 

Such an epic pattern!

 

90 degree heat in the midwest with low 30's and heavy snow in the Willamette Valley, at the same hour. 

 

That might have been the only time that's ever happened. 

[TT-SEA]

Such an epic pattern!

 

90 degree heat in the midwest with low 30's and heavy snow in the Willamette Valley, at the same hour.

 

That might have been the only time that's ever happened.

 

We were in Vegas at that time as well and everyone from the Midwest was pissed. It was 85 at home and 45 with rain and wind in Vegas.

[snow_wizard]

Such an epic pattern!

 

90 degree heat in the midwest with low 30's and heavy snow in the Willamette Valley, at the same hour. 

 

That might have been the only time that's ever happened.

If you're talking about March 2012 that pattern was fairly close to being like March 1951. Just a few differences that had major implications for some places. That is really where NW Oregon began owning Western WA. From that event onward we haven't been able to do anything up here.

[snow_wizard]

Going to be a long depressing year for me if we can't get this snow monkey off our back this winter. While next winter has an elevated chance of being chilly there are no guarantees on that one either. Could be D**n near forever before we score here.