January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Just amazing to see the models struggle with the details of this pattern evolution.  At this point the only thing we really know about week 2 is there will be a big Alaska block.  Hopefully the default trend this winter of getting colder as the time frame narrows will continue in that time frame.

[HighlandExperience]

Chances increase every year that passes.

 

What would be FUNNY is if we all die violently in the Cascadia subduction zone quake the day before it starts.

 

[Deweydog]

Just amazing to see the models struggle with the details of this pattern evolution. At this point the only thing we really know about week 2 is there will be a big Alaska block. Hopefully the default trend this winter of getting colder as the time frame narrows will continue in that time frame.

Yeah it's pretty crazy. Especially considering the models haven't struggled at all this winter to this point.

[Front Ranger]

Just amazing to see the models struggle with the details of this pattern evolution.  At this point the only thing we really know about week 2 is there will be a big Alaska block.  Hopefully the default trend this winter of getting colder as the time frame narrows will continue in that time frame.

 

 

 

[Jesse]

Clearing!!

[snow_wizard]

Clearing!!

Good news. We need it to clear to establish a good inversion. Now with more cold to finish out the month most places have a good shot at coldest January since 1993. A little bit of fake cold the next couple of day would help the cause. I imagine PDX already has coldest Jan since 1993 pretty well iced though.

[Deweydog]

Clearing!!

#tempsfallingthroughtheteens

[Jesse]

Good news. We need it to clear to establish a good inversion. Now with more cold to finish out the month most places have a good shot at coldest January since 1993. A little bit of fake cold the next couple of day would help the cause. I imagine PDX already has coldest Jan since 1993 pretty well iced though.

Coldest since 1979 is basically a foregone conclusion at this point.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks a lot like another boring cold-to-rain scenario shaping up, not a good run or trend by any means. Most of the busts here this year have been due to a lack of precipitation not a lack of cold air. Ironically, the stronger that GOA ridge becomes the less enjoyable this event will for many.

[Brennan]

My December electric bill was $17.84.

 

Just got the January bill and it was $35.43.

 

It's been a cold month.

My car is still pissed off from all the cold, it hasn't started in weeks. Either that or its broken. I'm going to wait it out and see

[Jesse]

Looks a lot like another boring cold-to-rain scenario shaping up, not a good run or trend by any means. Most of the busts here this year have been due to a lack of precipitation not a lack of cold air. Ironically, the stronger that GOA ridge becomes the less enjoyable this event will for many.

Didn't realize the models had this evolving situation nailed down tonight.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty remarkable to see the ensemble mean drop 6C for Feb 1 between last night's 0z run and tonight's. Nice to see anther cold shot show up on short notice like this. If Feb manages to end up decently cold this would certainly be one of the 3 or 4 coldest winters of the past 50 years.

[snow_wizard]

My car is still pissed off from all the cold, it hasn't started in weeks. Either that or its broken. I'm going to wait it out and see

Have you tried shooting some starting fluid into the air filter housing? Sometimes the electronics can get wet if it sits too long also.

[snow_wizard]

Didn't realize the models had this evolving situation nailed down tonight.

It is kind of irritating to have people bad mouthing cold. Whether there is snow or not it's better than climo.

[Deweydog]

It is kind of irritating to have people bad mouthing cold. Whether there is snow or not it's better than climo.

It's a good thing cold has a pretty thick skin. Dry too.

[snow_wizard]

It's a good thing cold has a pretty thick soon. Dry too.

Not sure how to reply to this.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Trump for snow storm!

[Jesse]

It's a good thing cold has a pretty thick skin. Dry too.

It's kind of like an armadillo.

[Karl Bonner]

It is kind of irritating to have people bad mouthing cold. Whether there is snow or not it's better than climo.

 

After having to drive through weeks and weeks of slippery roads in the Columbia River Gorge, I beg to differ at this point.  ESPECIALLY if it looks like driving difficulties will persist on the evening of February 5.

[Front Ranger]

Euro says hold on to your hats inversion-lovers, this one might last longer than you think.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After having to drive through weeks and weeks of slippery roads in the Columbia River Gorge, I beg to differ at this point.  ESPECIALLY if it looks like driving difficulties will persist on the evening of February 5.

 

My brother said there is still a decent amount of snow around. 

[Phil]

It originally started in 2013, but was then delayed by the +PDO/Blob for a few years.

No. Macroscale radiative equilibrium was obtained in 2013, as derived from satellite-based spectral analysis of the LW atmospheric emission window(s).

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Didn't realize the models had this evolving situation nailed down tonight.

 

It's hardly nailed down, the ECMWF is far warmer on Tuesday (probably going to end up being better for snow and perhaps even cold later in the week), but the trend on the GFS is a bit concerning with the way that model has performed in previous events.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012700/ecmwf_T850_nwus_5.png

[Phil]

First week of February is still where the potential is, IMO. Once into mid-February, things become much tougher.

[Front Ranger]

No. Macroscale radiative equilibrium was obtained in 2013, as derived from satellite-based spectral analysis of the LW atmospheric emission window(s).

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

First week of February is still where the potential is, IMO. Once into mid-February, things become much tougher.

 

CLIMO!

[DareDuck]

My car is still pissed off from all the cold, it hasn't started in weeks. Either that or its broken. I'm going to wait it out and see

I was lucky. I actually haven't driven my car since December 5th but I've started it and let it run for a bit a few times. Cleared off 15" last week and it's still running fine. Unfortunately a 3' snow/ice berm is blocking it in so it's still not going anywhere for awhile.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z ECMWF sticks with a weaker cold wave mid next week and warm thereafter.

[ShawniganLake]

Early spring for everyone. WTF

 

[Dave]

Chances increase every year that passes.

 

What would be FUNNY is if we all die violently in the Cascadia subduction zone quake the day before it starts.

Today is the the anniversary of the last Cascadia event.  1/26/1700.  Happy Cascadia day!   

[weatherfan2012]

No. Macroscale radiative equilibrium was obtained in 2013, as derived from satellite-based spectral analysis of the LW atmospheric emission window(s).

Agreed the wild card is what happens with the next couple of solar cycles.we will see cooling for sure but the million dollar question is how deep or low does the next couple cycles end up being I think the next few cycles in this solar minimum is going to be very unique and a test in alot of the theroys.going to be interesting to see how it plays out eather way.one of the worse thing's that was invented in the weather department those in the last few years has been the so called blob.This term really needs to go out the window as far as I'm concerned.

[weatherfan2012]

Early spring for everyone. WTF

IMG_0475.PNG

massive change in modeling from 24 hours ago if true this winter exceap for California go's up there with the likes of 2001-2002 2011-12 97-98 as all out suckco fests for most of the counrty.tonight's runs will tell if this was just a error run or if indeed this is the sad realty of this winter fate.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of upper 20s low 30s around NW Oregon this morning.

[Tyler Mode]

Has anyone noticed the rather high pressure? Not record breaking, but the highest in some time! 30.63" at my house.

[Goducks09]

Has anyone noticed the rather high pressure? Not record breaking, but the highest in some time! 30.63" at my house.

I've had a headache for the last 24 hours...which I've found kind of strange. I wonder if the unusually high pressure is the reason?

[Tyler Mode]

I've had a headache for the last 24 hours...which I've found kind of strange. I wonder if the unusually high pressure is the reason?

Could be, if nothing else the change in pressure...was 29.06" on the 20th.  30.00 just a couple days ago.

 

I think my highest ever is 30.78"? Or 30.81" something like that.

[bainbridgekid]

12z moving toward the Euro.

 

Cold doesn't penetrate nearly as far South through Tuesday morning.

[bainbridgekid]

Seatte's highest pressure in two years this morning. Highest since we set our all-time record in 2014.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z is way further north...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

12z moving toward the Euro.

 

Cold doesn't penetrate nearly as far South through Tuesday morning.

 

It looks a lot like the 0z ECMWF. Definitely a better setup to bring an overrunning snow to northern areas, but it won't last long.