Jesse Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 They may cancel it without snow. They teetered on cancelling yesterday but settled on a delay. Did you have any ice? My gut tells me we will truly be on the edge tomorrow into Monday. Probably a lot of frustratingly wet snow with temps a degree or so too warm. Media hype still might spook them into cancelling, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 So what time do you foresee the snow starting for say...northern Snohomish Co? The latest 3km NAM says wet snow starts around the Seattle area around 10 am tomorrow and spreads north from there. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Yea I hope it starts during the day time. What time you thinking? Maybe as early as tomorrow morning. Tough call. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Hopefully what my dogs will be thinking about soon... 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Did you have any ice? My gut tells me we will truly be on the edge tomorrow into Monday. Probably a lot of frustratingly wet snow with temps a degree or so too warm. Media hype still might spook them into cancelling, though.I still think most people will wake up with some snow on the ground early Monday morning. I'm guessing my location will see a ridiculous amount of 34 degrees rain tomorrow afternoon. Might be able to pick something up at night though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Absolute madness. There might be some of that going on already. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Timmy is going to get an insane amount of snow.And this of course would be when I am at the beach for the weekend. Although it looks like rockaway will get in on the action Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Temps have been shooting up here quickly... 50 and climbing... If we did not have weather models we would have no idea this was coming. Then again it could be just cold rain. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The WRF continues to advertise impressive CAA for the Seattle area Monday morning. Seems very possible being on the back side of a departing surface low.Will not happen. Upper 30s on Monday and Tuesday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Temps have been shooting up here quickly... 50 and climbing... If we did not have weather models we would have no idea this was coming. Then again it could be just cold rain. We're just in the warm sector now. Only 43 here. Just the sat pic is enough to know it's going to get colder. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I still think most people will wake up with some snow on the ground early Monday morning. I'm guessing my location will see a ridiculous amount of 34 degrees rain tomorrow afternoon. Might be able to pick something up at night though. Your location or my location? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Up to 50 here. Feels like snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The northern shift on the 3km NAM has cut the PDX snow totals quite a bit due to the mid day rain switch over. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017020418/nam3km_asnow_nwus_44.pngYeah lower than the nearly 2 feet it was showing on the 12z run but it's still showing close to 15" by Monday 4am. What gives me confidence is that the 3KM version did the best with snow totals for the January 10th and 11th snowstorm. In cases like this, the highest resolution model is the way to go. The 00z runs will be critical tonight. http://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam3km/2017020418/042/sn10_acc.us_nw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Temps have been shooting up here quickly... 50 and climbing... If we did not have weather models we would have no idea this was coming. Then again it could be just cold rain. Only 39 here with moderate rain. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Will not happen. Upper 30s on Monday and Tuesday. Careful...not every situation is the same. Depending on where the low tracks, how strong it is, and how much precip during the day, temps could easily stay 35 or below for almost all of Monday. There might be a situation where there's a lull and the temp spikes to the upper 30s for an hour or two, but that wouldn't necessarily reflect the day as a whole. And it's not like there isn't cold air nearby to draw from this time. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Yeah lower than the nearly 2 feet it was showing on the 12z run but it's still showing close to 15" by Monday 4am. What gives me confidence is that the 3KM version did the best with snow totals for the January 10th and 11th snowstorm. In cases like this, the highest resolution model is the way to go. The 00z runs will be critical tonight. http://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam3km/2017020418/042/sn10_acc.us_nw.png Agree, the 3km has been good this winter. It should not be discounted within 36 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Getting into the satellite watching hours of this event; things continue to look good for the South-Central Sound and dismal for the North. Hopefully what it's showing further north busts and some of that stuff actually wraps back around. Could be a rare situation where Seattle is seeing heavy snow while Victoria/Bellingham end up with light rain and drizzle. Just a little more offshore digging could go a long ways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 They may cancel it without snow. They teetered on cancelling yesterday but settled on a delay.Your side of the county will likely get shafted, so no worries for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Yeah lower than the nearly 2 feet it was showing on the 12z run but it's still showing close to 15" by Monday 4am. What gives me confidence is that the 3KM version did the best with snow totals for the January 10th and 11th snowstorm. In cases like this, the highest resolution model is the way to go. The 00z runs will be critical tonight. The 3km NAM has been good within close range, but even it did not forsee what happened on Jan 10/11. I think the last run before the storm showed maybe 3-6" for Portland metro. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Up to 50 here. Feels like snow. PDX is still around 40. Same with here. Pretty impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Your side of the county will likely get shafted, so no worries for you. Outside of the portion directly in the Gorge, SE Clark County kind of sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Getting into the satellite watching hours of this event; things continue to look good for the South-Central Sound and dismal for the North. Hopefully what it's showing further north busts and some of that stuff actually wraps back around. Could be a rare situation where Seattle is seeing heavy snow while Victoria/Bellingham end up with light rain and drizzle. Just a little more offshore digging could go a long ways.Going to be very interesting to see how all of this unfolds... Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Careful...not every situation is the same. Depending on where the low tracks, how strong it is, and how much precip during the day, temps could easily stay 35 or below for almost all of Monday. There might be a situation where there's a lull and the temp spikes to the upper 30s for an hour or two, but that wouldn't necessarily reflect the day as a whole. And it's not like there isn't cold air nearby to draw from this time.It will be slow to clear out and there is no real cold air coming in. It will be sloppy. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Outside of the portion directly in the Gorge, SE Clark County kind of sucks.Yeah, the hills near Camas do fine but otherwise you tend to get both the icky downslope winds and the occasional warm tongues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Yeah, the hills near Camas do fine but otherwise you tend to get both the icky downslope winds and the occasional warm tongues.One of my best friends lives at 400 feet in Camas and he only got 3" with the big storm 3 weeks ago. I kept telling him what was going on in the rest of Portland, but he was still shocked when he had to drive to Hillsboro the next day. He's training to be a pilot and said the view the next few days was absolutely incredible. He didn't appreciate just how rare the deep snow and clear skies was though. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The 3km NAM has been good within close range, but even it did not forsee what happened on Jan 10/11. I think the last run before the storm showed maybe 3-6" for Portland metro.It did in fact show the 10-12" stuff but kept it just west of the city. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The latest 3km NAM says wet snow starts around the Seattle area around 10 am tomorrow and spreads north from there. Actually, looking at this closer, it appears the main band holds off until at least noon, maybe 1. This is tomorrow around noon. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 One of my best friends lives at 400 feet in Camas and he only got 3" with the big storm 3 weeks ago. I kept telling him what was going on in the rest of Portland, but he was still shocked when he had to drive to Hillsboro the next day. He's training to be a pilot and said the view the next few days was absolutely incredible. He didn't appreciate just how rare the deep snow and clear skies was though. Yeah, just a short jaunt east from my place and totals dropped off dramatically for the January 10-11 event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Drinking some French red wine and watching the snow fall again. It looks like it'll get quite heavy in a few minutes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The 3km NAM has been good within close range, but even it did not forsee what happened on Jan 10/11. I think the last run before the storm showed maybe 3-6" for Portland metro. I actually remember quite vividly that the 12z 3km NAM showed 8-10" for the PDX area on the morning of the 10th. Still ended up on the low end! It's done really well this year. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Yeah, just a short jaunt east from my place and totals dropped off dramatically for the January 10-11 event.For all the talk about the Gorge down there, it's kind of amazing how many setups favor the West side of town. Here's a picture he took from the plane a couple days after the snowstorm. 4 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Your side of the county will likely get shafted, so no worries for you.12-14-08 me while you score a 12-1-07. Lame. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 It will be slow to clear out and there is no real cold air coming in. It will be sloppy. Cold enough for sticking snow. Once winds turn around to the north tomorrow, I do think people will see the temps drop pretty quickly. Can't really compare this event to anything else this winter, at least for the Puget Sound region. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 For all the talk about the Gorge down there, it's kind of amazing how many setups favor the West side of town. Here's a picture he took from the plane a couple days after the snowstorm. 16009902_10154281005371586_1732283029_o.jpgCold air damming. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 One of my best friends lives at 400 feet in Camas and he only got 3" with the big storm 3 weeks ago. I kept telling him what was going on in the rest of Portland, but he was still shocked when he had to drive to Hillsboro the next day. He's training to be a pilot and said the view the next few days was absolutely incredible. He didn't appreciate just how rare the deep snow and clear skies was though.They haven't done too well this winter, maybe 6-7" total in Camas. 17" here across the county. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I actually remember quite vividly that the 12z 3km NAM showed 8-10" for the PDX area on the morning of the 10th. Still ended up on the low end! It's done really well this year. Yes, but the 12z run was not the last run before the storm. 18z was. You're right that it definitely hinted at major potential before the storm, and has done really well overall. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 They haven't done too well this winter, maybe 6-7" total in Camas. 17" here across the county.Yeah and he said the ice hasn't even been that bad there. Several storms have had quite a bit of ice down by the river but had trouble getting much of any accretion at his house at 400 feet. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Cold enough for sticking snow. Once winds turn around to the north tomorrow, I do think people will see the temps drop pretty quickly. Can't really compare this event to anything else this winter, at least for the Puget Sound region.Oh... its going to be fun to watch tomorrow. Be this thinking it will be real cold afterwards is not accurate. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 They haven't done too well this winter, maybe 6-7" total in Camas. 17" here across the county.I'm sitting at about 11" for the winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 12-14-08 me while you score a 12-1-07. Lame.1-5-82 with a bit of 12-19-64. Snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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