December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

This mornings GFS brings back the Christmas eve bowling ball.  If it happens it would be a high ratio event.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

This mornings GFS brings back the Christmas eve bowling ball.  If it happens it would be a high ratio event.

This pattern is just so GOOD...the more I analyze the data, the more inclined I am to believe that this could be the Winter where "sharing the wealth" is a common theme across our SUB.  I'm already starting to see the NYE Big Bog that is showing up in the modeling and lining up with the Upper MW Blizzard that hit back on Nov 10th!  Incredible pattern with massive potential...I smell another cutter in the works.

[Clinton]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

This pattern is just so GOOD...the more I analyze the data, the more inclined I am to believe that this could be the Winter where "sharing the wealth" is a common theme across our SUB.  I'm already starting to see the NYE Big Bog that is showing up in the modeling and lining up with the Upper MW Blizzard that hit back on Nov 10th!  Incredible pattern with massive potential...I smell another cutter in the works.

Seems like it's been years since there has been this much going on in Dec.  I was also thinking last night that the part of the pattern that produced the 2nd coldest 10 day stretch of weather in KC history for Nolvember is set to return the first 2 weeks of January.  Relentless stretch of weather ahead.

[Tom]

20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Seems like it's been years since there has been this much going on in Dec.  I was also thinking last night that the part of the pattern that produced the 2nd coldest 10 day stretch of weather in KC history for Nolvember is set to return the first 2 weeks of January.  Relentless stretch of weather ahead.

The encouraging signs are that the teleconnections are playing in our favor and as long as they can persist into JAN, most, if not all, of our SUB will benefit in the snow dept.  So far, I don’t see any deviation from the expansive high lat blocking.  As you said, it’s been years since this kind of set up has locked and held together.

[chescowxman]

Quiet but seasonably chilly stretch of weather on the way through Wednesday. Then as the National Weather Service is saying this morning "Stay tuned for changes to the forecast, and our area should prepare for anything from heavy rain and gusty winds with some coastal flooding to snow and ice Thursday into Friday, with a very cold airmass likely to follow for next weekend." Lots of model disagreements but expect to gain a bit more consensus by Tuesday AM.

The record high for today is 62 degrees from 2000. The record low is 1 below zero from 1910. Daily rain record is 2.99" from 2000. The daily snow record is the 7.5" that fell in 1932.

[chescowxman]

Some interesting climate data analysis by month for Western Chester County PA. I wanted to see the differences in our local county climate comparing NWS coop observations taken at 340 ft above sea level (ASL) which were recorded from January 1894 through 1982 (89 years) vs. the observations that have been recorded now for the last 40 years at over 660 ft ASL. Some results that might be surprising to some. Overall very little change in our average temperatures since the 1890's +0.7%. However, somewhat cooler warm season months and warmer cold season months. The biggest differences have been in increased precipitation +9.7% and increased snowfall by 14.1%.

[Clinton]

Both the 12z GFS and CMC show some clipper like systems in the NW flow from Christmas on towards the end of the year which should keep us entertained until the NYE storm shows up.

[gabel23]

This is an unusual stat but not hard to believe. If we didn’t learn from the dust bowl era and do no till we would be in worst shape. We really need a wet spring this year or will be in trouble. 
 

 

[westMJim]

I just took a snow fall measurement and here in MBY I now have a total of 8" of snow on the ground. There is less snow on the driveway so the cement must still be rather warm. It is still snowing her with moderately good fake size. The snow that fell was at most times just light snow with some brief periods of moderate snow fall. At the current time there is light snow falling and the current temperature is 31.

[jaster220]

Tons of "Ice Pillars" here in SMI during 2013-14 winter. Amazing how frigid that was. Harshest on record

[westMJim]

I just got home and I took a snow on the ground measurement and wow, I now have 12.5" of snow on the ground. Grand Rapids will crush the old record for December 17th the old record was 5.4" in 1951.

[weatherfan2012]

Larry Cosgrove American weather write up 

 

[westMJim]

Record snow fall for December 17^th at Grand Rapids. There was a new record snow fall amount for Grand Rapids set yesterday with an official snow fall amount of 10.4” Here in MBY I now have 12.5” on the ground. For today the average H/L is 35/24 the record high of 55 was set in 1939 and the record low of -5 was set in 1926. For today the record snow fall amount is 4.0” set in 1951. Grand Rapids had much more snow fall then Muskegon where just 2.3” fell and Lasing with only 0.3” fell.

At this time accumulating snow has finally ended but clouds and flurries will linger.

[westMJim]

I have reported my snow on the ground of 12.5" on my CoCoRaHs report for today.

[Clinton]

Very good Christmas week forecast for KC, it's been awhile since we've had exciting weather this time of year and a great chance at a white Christmas.

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

Besides the dangerous cold we are expecting later this week, we will also see a few snow chances. First round arrives tomorrow... likely in time for the AM commute. Only an inch or 2 is expected. The 2nd round looks to move in late Wed into Thur & could impact holiday travel.

 

[chescowxman]

As has been the case for this early winter season here in Chester County it appears we will see below normal temperatures for the upcoming week but then a brief but sharp warm up just in time to turn any brief snow at the start to a heavy rain on Thursday. For those who want snow we need these low pressure systems to track off the coast to our east to keep the cold air locked in. After the storm we will turn sharply colder by Friday PM with our coldest weather of the season so far on tap for Christmas weekend. Christmas eve day may struggle to escape the low to mid-20's for high temps.

[westMJim]

I cleared the driveway (got to use the snow blower) and pulled the snow at the edge of the roof down. Now will have to wait for the snow plow to clear the end of the driveway. The snow fall has picked up a little here now, still light but bigger flake size.

[Stacsh]

Long range looks disappointing as most of everyone’s snow would melt by the end of the first week of January.   Lot could change.  But the wild swings will continue.  That could mean big storms.   But rainers as well.  

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Long range looks disappointing as most of everyone’s snow would melt by the end of the first week of January.   Lot could change.  But the wild swings will continue.  That could mean big storms.   But rainers as well.  

Like 07-08 but with even larger swings and bigger, more Plains centric storms. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 28/24 there was 0.02” of precipitation and 0.4” of snow fall. There was no sunshine and the official snow fall depth at GRR is a reported 8” I have 12” here in MBY. The current temperature here in MBY is 22. For today the average H/L is 35/24 the record high of 55 was set way back in 1895 and the record low of -18 was set in 1983 the record snow fall amount of 10.8” fell in 2008.

I will not say too much about the expected storm later this week other than saying there looks to be a major system in the area, but it is still Way Too Early to say what any one location will get. Some people are way too concerned about being Warned well I guess you can say you are now Warned.

[westMJim]

11 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Long range looks disappointing as most of everyone’s snow would melt by the end of the first week of January.   Lot could change.  But the wild swings will continue.

That looks like a very good possibility and seems to be par for the course. 

[westMJim]

This is the updated snow fall totals for the lake effect snow that we had over the weekend. Grand Rapids 15.1” Rockford 14.6” Walker 13.7” Holland 12.5” all in all a impressive lake effect event.

Here is a rundown of the snow depths across Michigan at 7 AM yesterday morning. Grand Rapids 8” Lansing 2” Muskegon 6” Detroit Trace, Flint, and Saginaw 1” Alpena Trace. Houghton Lake 4” Sault Ste Marie 6” and Marquette 9”.

[chescowxman]

Our stretch of chilly weather looks to continue for most of the remainder of 2022. In fact December looks likely to finish as our coldest December since at least 2017 and possibly the coldest since 2010! Dry weather should continue before snow arrives on Thursday morning before quickly changing to rain. A strong arctic cold front will sweep through from west to east on Friday afternoon dropping temps from the 50's at 1pm to below freezing by 8pm. High temperatures on Christmas Eve day and Christmas Day may struggle to reach the low to mid 20's.

The record high for today is 62 degrees set in 1929. The record low is 1 above zero from 1951. The daily rain record is the 1.30" that fell in 1934. Our daily snow record I remember well as 15" of snow fell today back in 2009. It started at 5am and was over by 10pm. There was still 4" of snow on the ground on Christmas morning which was our next to last White Christmas - with our last such one 10 years ago in 2012 when we had 2" of snow on the ground that fell on Christmas Eve 2012.

[chescowxman]

Based on the current forecast it appears likely this will be a top 10 coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in Chester County PA history with data back to 1894. If the current forecast verifies it would be the 9th coldest Christmas Eve and the 6th Coldest Christmas Day. See the Top 20 coldest for each day below.

[Snowshoe]

Spent the weekend out enjoying the snow in Northern Wisconsin. 

[bud2380]

GFS mid next week.

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

19 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS mid next week.

 

GFS going with rain for most with systems to start the new year.

[chescowxman]

Below is a simple chart showing average actual (non-adjusted) temperature trends comparing PHL Airport (Green) vs. NWS Coop observer sites in the suburbs of Philly in Chester County PA. NWS COOP stations include Phoenixville (Blue) / Glenmoore (Orange) and Coatesville (chesco) (Red) from 1940 through today. The calculated trend lines very clearly show the PHL Airport trend is rapidly rising while the others show much more stable trends with slight rises at both Phoenixville and Coatesville but cooling trends shown by the Glenmoore NWS COOP observer. In fact with just 12 days remaining in 2022 both Glenmoore and Coatesville will finish between 0.5 and 1.0 degrees colder than 2021. Of course the PHL Airport is on pace to finish at greater than 1 degree warmer than 2021. Urban heat island contamination is real and continues.

[CentralNebWeather]

Thought this was interesting.  You can click on your county and see how many blizzard warnings you have had since 2000.  Looks like they start at 10.  My county, Phelps, has had 12 blizzard warnings.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/where-is-blizzard-alley/1382691

[Clinton]

8 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

GFS going with rain for most with systems to start the new year.

It's going to warm up no doubt, but sometimes the models are a little quick with pushing out the Artic air when there is a expansive snowpack.  My worry with the New Years storm in KC is that we will still have a shallow layer of Artic air as it retreats with a storm out of the SW overriding it.  That's a recipe for an ice storm here.  Hopefully the GFS is right because I would much rather have rain than ice.

[OmahaSnowFan]

32 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It's going to warm up no doubt, but sometimes the models are a little quick with pushing out the Artic air when there is an expansive snowpack.  My worry with the New Years storm in KC is that we will still have a shallow layer of Artic air as it retreats with a storm out of the SW overriding it.  That's a recipe for an ice storm here.  Hopefully the GFS is right because I would much rather have rain than ice.

 I was definitely surprised to see how quickly the warmth flooded back in so quickly 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

 I was definitely surprised to see how quickly the warmth flooded back in so quickly 

Big spike in the EPO after Christmas.

[gabel23]

According to the LRC; we should see a warm up as the last storm due in is the veteran's day storm. Here is what I got from my records: 

Major warm up before the storm. Really warm, muggy including overnight record low max’s. Cold front came through over night on the 10th. 20 degree temp drop. Major blizzard in North Dakota. Hurricane in Florida. 

 

Precip amount: .03” 

Then the next storm was this: 

Nov. 15th to Nov. 17th

 

Major ULL moved off from our south east. First snows for Kansas, Iowa and Illnois. Turning into a major lake effect snow machine. Cold sinking into our area all week w/ temps 30 degrees below normal. We received a dusting of snow on Wed. Nov. 16th. 

 

Precip: dusting of snow 

[Tom]

I had one of the calmest flights in recent years and I was able to capture some cool shots of the landscape below as soon as the cloud deck cleared up as we began our descent from 33,000ft.  We flew over the wave of Snow that was  over IA.

The other pics/vids were when we flew over the city and lined up our final approach…

 

[westMJim]

Good morning! Yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 27/22 there was no rain, snow or sunshine. With the ground still warm there is still melting taking place and the snow official snow depth at 7 AM yesterday at GRR was 6” this morning here in MBY it is at 7”. The average H/L for today is 35/24 the record high of 58 was set in 1949 and the record low of -3 was set in 1983 the record snow fall amount of 7.2” fell in 1951.

[chescowxman]

Dry and seasonable weather will continue for Christmas Week before a stormy Thursday into Friday for Chester County PA. The storm continues to look like mainly rain after a brief start as snow or sleet. A powerful cold front will sweep across the county from west to east during the late morning hours on Friday. Most models are now showing some minor <1"of snow accumulations before the snow ends on Friday PM. A top 10 coldest Christmas holiday remains probable for the weekend.

[Timmy Supercell]

This is going to get downright bitter later this week. My coldest high last Winter was 22.

[gabel23]

Meanwhile in Buffalo: (I'm a big Buffalo Bills fan by the way, GO BILLS!)

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Powerful Storm To Impact our Region Heading Into and THROUGH the
Christmas Weekend...
...Winter storm watches issued for Western NY with more likely to
come east of Lake Ontario on later shifts...

An extremely amplified longwave pattern during this period will
spawn one of the most intense storm systems in decades to impact the
Mid West and Great Lakes region. This system will likely end up
setting low pressure records once it passes north of the border and
will have the potential to generate storm force winds over the Lower
Great lakes.

 

They are having a winter for the ages. This thing is gonna hurt! 

[gabel23]

WOW. Probably one of the most ominous disco's I have ever read from Buffalo. 

Explosive cyclogenesis will take place over the mid western states
into southern Ontario on Friday...as an anomalously strong 150kt H25
jet will pass through the base of a very deep longwave trough. This
will support rapid deepening of a corresponding sfc low that will
track from Indiana north-northeast to southern Ontario by late
Friday. The low will deepen from roughly 1000mb Thursday evening to
roughly 968mb by Friday evening...easily meeting the definition of
bombogenesis (24mb/24hrs). Such deepening is relatively rare in the
Lower Great lakes...but more common across the Upper Great Lakes and
certainly with Nor`easters along the coast. Some of the parameters
of this intense storm are climatologically `off the charts`...such
as MSLP and strength of both the low level and upper level jets. One
could certainly describe this storm system as a once in a generation
type of event. Subtle differences remain, but there remains general
model agreement in the overall large scale scenario, which adds
confidence.

[Grizzcoat]

00Z Euro/GFS are at big odds with each other in the 7-10 day regarding temps.  Euro basically holds on to modified Arctic air but the GFS is nearly a torch for many. Granted the Euro has warning type snow for most of IA late Christmas day into Monday and the GFS does not (building the snow pack/ or not) but even the GFS warms to near 32F in N.MN / ND where the snow pack is thick. The Euro maybe onto something in tempering the "thaw".