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December 2022 Observations and Discussion


Iceresistance

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Looking back at cycle 1 and it's hard to ignore what the ICON and Canadian are showing today.  According to the LRC this storm is related to the storm we had on 11-3 - 11-6.  We had a storm thread for this storm titled "11/3 - 11-6 Horrible Tornado Outbreak in Southern Plains."  I would encourage everyone to look through the thread.  Here is thee QPF map valid for 11/3 - 11/5.

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When we first started talking about this storm a week or so ago I shared a run of the Euro Control that I thought fit the LRC.  It's strange sometimes how the models will go back to the solution they started with.  Time will tell how it did but some of the models are already trending back that way.  Here is the Control from 12/12.

1671861600-6nkdlJ3ry0A.png

And a GFS run from 12-13

image.png.28b6b87f4b37996677daa7fa78befd47.png

 

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The GFS is now the only model still showing the dipping trough over the lakes early in the week.  The other models have lifted that back up into Canada.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro trended in the right direction, but it's not quite there.  It needs to dig farther west, like the UK.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Gotta like this...

12z euro iowa fine.png

Yeah, it didn't look good for awhile, I thought it was weakening as it got to Iowa, and then would do what storms always do here, and speed right off on to the east, but this run it winds up.  Would be pretty amazing if that verified.  

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2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Well this was unexpected.  Golden path for E Iowa.  I was expecting it to progressively slide east, but now it's winding up the storm as the cold front moves through Iowa. 

 

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

A 77 mb gradient on that run between the surface low and the high in Montana.

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12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro gives KC a couple inches on Monday

1671483600-dsPgMaTMLDg.png

Clinton, interesting little disturbance for Monday morning...a little appetizer for  cycle 2's monster that will unfold middle of next week. Arctic air/high winds/snow falling...dear I say blizzard could occur somewhere??

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I started a storm thread for this one since we're all talking about it anyways.  Were within 120 hours of snow breaking out in the plains, I think it's safe to say something of note will happen during this time frame.  If an admin could pin it, I would appreciate it.  

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1 minute ago, MIKEKC said:

Clinton, interesting little disturbance for Monday morning...a little appetizer for  cycle 2's monster that will unfold middle of next week. Arctic air/high winds/snow falling...dear I say blizzard could occur somewhere??

I like the appetizer for Monday also.  It's like our own little personal Pizza lol.  A blizzard is very much on the table for Wednesday and Thursday with this strength of storm and the artic air.  I bet Gary is excited about todays model runs.  This will help him sell the LRC if they verify.

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I like the appetizer for Monday also.  It's like our own little personal Pizza lol.  A blizzard is very much on the table for Wednesday and Thursday with this strength of storm and the artic air.  I bet Gary is excited about todays model runs.  This will help him sell the LRC if they verify.

I just had some drinks with him last night and I told him starting tomorrow, the storm will show back up. I also texted him on Wednesday, saying...."now is your chance" he responded, "what are you talking about" I said, the models do not show a massive storm in cycle two, 50 days from Nov. 3-5th. Now is your chance to say all over social media and your website, "THE MODELS ARE WRONG!!" He didn't do it.....this morning, I texted him after seeing the ICON, and said, "you missed your chance"

To make more sense of the above, I have been telling him for years that I don't want to hear about the LRC after the fact.. please let me know before the data shows it and he's always been afraid of sticking his neck out. YEARS!!! I said if you want this to sell, you must do it. He has something to sell, it should do very well. 

 

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1 minute ago, MIKEKC said:

I just had some drinks with him last night and I told him starting tomorrow, the storm will show back up. I also texted him on Wednesday, saying...."now is your chance" he responded, "what are you talking about" I said, the models do not show a massive storm in cycle two, 50 days from Nov. 3-5th. Now is your chance to say all over social media and your website, "THE MODELS ARE WRONG!!" He didn't do it.....this morning, I texted him after seeing the ICON, and said, "you missed your chance"

To make more sense of the above, I have been telling him for years that I don't want to hear about the LRC after the fact.. please let me know before the data shows it and he's always been afraid of sticking his neck out. YEARS!!! I said if you want this to sell, you must do it. He has something to sell, it should do very well. 

 

I wish him the best of luck.  Looking through my notes on this storm I thought a blizzard would be possible across far northern Missouri, eastern Iowa and Wisconsin.  Not sure if the storm will mature enough when it passes to our SE, but it should produce a great snow for us anyway.

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Euro/CMC made ugly moves today, looks more like a lakes cutter. Haven’t seen a single snowflake yet this winter, so I’m gonna be very salty if models don’t swing back to a coastal.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

The Euro through Christmas Eve

1671926400-y3UhJh4uO58.png

I know it doesn't show "zero" SN, but the Detroit and Central Neb screw-holes shall not be denied, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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22 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Hastings with the understatement of the year, “slow”. 

for the second straight year we are in a snow drought. Depressing doesn’t even begin to explain the frustration. It’s amazing how it lines up exactly with how last years winter season ended. 

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7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

1950 was an extreme example of it with the surface low going from the coastal Carolina area to northern OH.

It would be fun to see a 1950 system unfold in this era.  Really the 1993 superstorm and that are the two most severe storms (not including tropical/hybrid tropical systems) to impact the eastern US in the 20th century in my opinion.

That 1950 Appalachian  runner was one of most historic  winter storms in America's  history!  I think temps were near 50 near Buffalo  and below zero in West Va.  Just shocking  amounts of snow.  1950 and 1993 just amazing  set ups.

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42 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

for the second straight year we are in a snow drought. Depressing doesn’t even begin to explain the frustration. It’s amazing how it lines up exactly with how last years winter season ended. 

Yep, no difference. Just seeing this snow in Gothenburg tonight has me wanting snow badly at home. 

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9 hours ago, Phil said:

Euro/CMC made ugly moves today, looks more like a lakes cutter. Haven’t seen a single snowflake yet this winter, so I’m gonna be very salty if models don’t swing back to a coastal.

Especially when Some like Larry Cosgrove has been so on board with the cold ice and snow threats those to be fair I get why he been on board but unfortunately when it fails in the end your be accused of over hyping when that was not the contention. It just gos to show no matter how great of a pro degreed met you our mother nature can and will kick your but and throw a cerve ball and humble you at times.I also think the models are having trouble determind the outcomed this I'm not sure I'm sold on any solution just yet need a few more days.

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At the current time I have a temperature of 27 with light snow falling. There is now 6" of snow on the ground in MBY. So all in all not a real bad lake effect event.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 33/27 there was 0.19" of pricp of that 2.7" was snow. For today the average H/L is 36/24 the record high of 54 was set in 2006 the record low of -5 was set in 1973 and the record snow fall of 5.4" was set in 1951.

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The Valley of the Sun is experiencing it's 1st Freeze of the Season...everything about my long stay out here in the PHX area has been quite an experience.  I've witnessed the incredible Monsoon season in both AUG & SEP, then Autumn really showed itself in OCT and hints of SN fell up in the Mtn's, but then it really got cold for valley standards in NOV and I've personally never seen it get this cool for such long periods of time.  The weather pattern certainly had a different "feel" to it and the locals definitely have been outspoken about it, including the local mets on TV. 

After this weekends Winter Chill, it appears the Valley of the Sun will warm up as a nice ridge builds into place during the Christmas Holiday.

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