Popular Post SouthHillFrosty Posted December 5, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: This GFS run should be back to showing 50+ inches of snow in Seattle. After the 3+ feet of snow there this week its going to get a bit tiring. 50 inches should mean 5 or 6 will verify. 4 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Day 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: Finished with 1.5” of snow out here. Nothing quite like seeing snow in December as we get closer to Christmas. Hopefully a preview of a bigger regional event later this winter! We need a region wide event. This have and have not stuff gets tiring. 9 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 This is starting to feel like we’re going to be in a solidly anomalous pattern like we were this spring…then went through in the summer now it’s back again in late fall/early winter. Seems like we’re getting stuck in a solidly below normal regime again. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: This GFS run should be back to showing 50+ inches of snow in Seattle. After the 3+ feet of snow there this week its going to get a bit tiring. I've stopped paying attention to all the model's precip outputs. I'm relying more on the fundamental meteorology and our local climatological leanings. Ironically me losing faith in the GFS/Euro outputs has made me a better forecaster. More often than not this winter, my intuition has proved correct. 8 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Southwestern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: 50 inches should mean 5 or 6 will verify. Maybe. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: We need a region wide event. This have and have not stuff gets tiring. Definitely. Kind of annoyed that we managed only 0.2" of snow out of this whole thing. Our coldest high was today, 39. We only got down to 29 at the coldest so not that great here. Great to see some more chances next week though 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: I've stopped paying attention to all the model's precip outputs. I'm relying more on the fundamental meteorology and our local climatological leanings. Ironically me losing faith in the GFS/Euro outputs has made me a better forecaster. More often than not this winter, my intuition has proved correct. Good call. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Top map looks pregnant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 More snow on the GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 New GFS looking like a nice touchdown! 2 1 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Short term improvements on this run too. The pattern Thursday-the weekend, would be a much better pattern for foothill snow down here than this week was. 2 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Meh that is all phantom snow. PDX never hits freezing. Too bad we didn't build a cold pool during this last "event". Would have been perfect for what the GFS is showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Some pretty insane lows showing up on these runs. 5 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Good call. Today I was wrong though! I expected more of a northward extent and an overperformance north of Seattle. Instead it was a bit south of model projections last night. Again, as is life. 5 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Some pretty insane lows showing up on these runs. Well of course... we will have region wide deep snow cover. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 I know better to look, this run is insane. We're going to get hit with something big this year. Maybe snow maybe wind but something big. 4 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 GFS has a major snow/ice storm after day 10 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: Well of course... we will have region wide deep snow cover. I meant low pressure systems. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: GFS has a major snow/ice storm after day 10 Just saw that. WOW 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellowstone Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, Doinko said: More snow on the GFS I think we’ve had enough South sound specials this month… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I meant low pressure systems. Ahhhh. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Don't get too excited. Remember this is the upgraded GFS. 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, Doinko said: That would be absolutely crippling ice. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 I don’t want to get too excited about next week considering how bad the models were for this week 48 hours out. I do have a pretty good feeling about it though at this time. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 That's about as good a maritime snowfall pattern as I've ever seen. The kind of stuff that can literally only happen from Dec 10th thru Jan 10th. Some early Jan 1969 vibes. 6 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 All of western WA is in the mountains. 1 3 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Poulsbo Snowman said: Don't get too excited. Remember this is the upgraded GFS. This absolutely passes the climo test tho... All of this makes meteorological sense. No obscure strange east wind-cutoff low-heavy precip rate shenanigans. 6 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: All of western WA is in the mountains. Even the clown range GFS knows that Portland and most of the Willamette Valley will be screwed yet again 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 The icon shows a feature early Saturday a few of the models have been picking up on. This is pretty close to the track of the 12-14-16 storm if I recall correctly. That was snow from about Albany north and Eugene had a significant icing event. It’s the icon so it shows rain, but this track would likely produce snow to the north and northwest of the low. 4 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: All of western WA is in the mountains. Just wow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: This absolutely passes the climo test tho... All of this makes meteorological sense. No obscure strange east wind-cutoff low-heavy precip rate shenanigans. I was kind of annoyed earlier seeing us not get that much snow but I'm pretty happy now. That was some persistent snow in the air, even if it didn't stick much. Really nice to look outside and watch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 00Z GEFS shows a classic blizzard and epic snow set up for this weekend... this map just screams feet of snow in Seattle. 1 5 1 1 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: Even the clown range GFS knows that Portland and most of the Willamette Valley will be screwed yet again Yep crippling and devastating ice storm to rub salt into the wound. 1 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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