PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Lol I literally can’t keep up with the posts since there’s so many. Anytime I flip to the next page and it refreshes, there’s another page ready for me to read.

If there ends up being a 1968-69 type scenario at some point then it will be a novel's worth of pages. Probly like 5 separate topics. In Feb 2019 there were 3 topics because it was so insane.

[Terreboner]

Just now, OysterPrintout said:

I already spilled the beans to my neighbor's wife after the 18z came out and then her husband started asking all these stupid questions like what is the 18z what are you doing in my house why are you talking to my wife

If you are going to start gossip, I would pick some better content than the Druncle.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I am probably putting too much faith in the GEFS....

Nothing but good trends on everything today though.

[Doinko]

47 at PDX for the high today, thankfully we avoided 50. If we don't hit 50 for the rest of the month then that will be the first time in any month since December 1985. We did have a monthly max of 50 in Feb 2019 so just one degree off

[Winterdog]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....but they usually don't go this far.  I still remember the huge busts of course.

Mt Rushmore comes to mind.

[Deweydog]

I’ve always wondered what Jim’s brain would look like as a weather model.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Devastating trends 

[SnarkyGoblin]

52 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Finally, a very good read from the peeps at Pendleton AFD.  This could be very fun overnight and tomorrow.

 

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...A challenging forecast
presents itself as guidance is struggling with the placement of
crucial mesoscale features, and still exhibits some slight, but
important, differences in the synoptic pattern.

The main upper-level, cut-off low is visible just offshore in water
vapor imagery and continues to slowly track southeast. The main
surface low is visible on both visible and Day Cloud Phase satellite
products, located offshore in the northeast Pacific and also
tracking slowly southeast. Ensemble and deterministic guidance are
in excellent agreement that these features will both track southeast
through the night with the surface and parent upper lows both
gradually filling in as they approach the southwest Oregon coast. By
06Z tonight, some subtle placement differences become apparent in
current 12-18Z deterministic guidance as well as 12Z ensemble mean
500 mb heights and vorticity. All guidance agrees on diffluent
southerly flow aloft, but exact location of the mid-level vorticity
maximum remain slightly different among guidance. Moreover,
deterministic runs are hinting at a secondary surface low forming in
south-central or southeast Oregon overnight into Sunday morning.
Model-to-model and run-to-run variances are quite significant with
the NAM favoring a more westward placement in central Oregon while
the HRRR tracks this feature much further east into southeast
Oregon. Of concern, the ECMWF EFI paints a bullseye for
climatologically unusual precipitation and snowfall right over
central Oregon with positive Shift of Tails (SoT) exceeding values
of 1 indicating some extreme outliers among ensemble members.
Indeed, delving further into ensemble members reveals substantial
uncertainty in precipitation totals and snowfall for much of central
and eastern Oregon, dependent upon where the secondary surface low
tracks and where the band of heavy precipitation sets up.

The takeaway is that forecast uncertainty remains notably high for
such a short lead time, and impacts from the moderate to heavy snow
band will be moderate to high, wherever it forms. For now,
confidence in advisory-level snowfall for central Oregon has
prompted a Winter Weather Advisory for 06Z Sunday to 06Z Monday,
though other areas of north-central Oregon through the foothills of
the Blue Mountains and into the eastern mountains may also see
impactful snowfall through Monday as wraparound snow showers linger.

They got something to talk about!

[Doinko]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Devastating trends 

South Valley gets nailed

[Snownerd3000]

Jay hates America too 

[MossMan]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Devastating trends 

Ack! Another pretty map that shows a snow drought over my house.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I always thought Erik and Jesse would be friends if they just gave each other a chance. 

[Guest administrator]

8 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

I already spilled the beans to my neighbor's wife after the 18z came out and then her husband started asking all these stupid questions like what is the 18z what are you doing in my house why are you talking to my wife

Did he give you a chance to get dressed?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A boring 43/40 so far today. About a half inch of rain or so… 

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, administrator said:

Did he give you a chance to get dressed?

Careful out there 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

26 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Oh god you’re part of this crowd. I should have guessed.

As if it wasn’t already obvious before today.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’ve always wondered what Jim’s brain would look like as a weather model.

Should know soon.

[DeepFriedEgg]

28 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Oh god you’re part of this crowd. I should have guessed.

I mean he was right most of the time hard to deny that.

[Gummy]

12 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Jay hates America too 

"You are correct! They dumb down the model after 240 hr from ~13km resolution to ~27km. Even before that time the model suffers. Why run dumb ensembles over and over again (poor resolution) 4 times a day when you have systematic errors? Model is worse since FV3 (upgrade)." - Jay

[Terreboner]

Looks like things are starting to organize to the SW.  Currently 43 deg., 26 dp.  

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

I mean he was right most of the time hard to deny that.

Stop speaking of yourself in the third person and change your handle to W7ENK already.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The gfs from 5 years ago was better at temp outputs. I was never this bad that I remember. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like he got my old girl pushing some snow!

[SnarkyGoblin]

20 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I am probably putting too much faith in the GEFS....

Look, I get your sentiment and the work you put in for this community is admirable.  I'm sure analyzing maps that are essentially very expensive AI generated art pieces is exhausting.  It can feel like you're taking crazy pills with how different each 6 hour run is.

Everyone on here should be fine with other people being critical of bad models.  I don't really understand why that should/would be controversial.  Just like how people should be free to post Pepto maps and not be downvoted into oblivion.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The gfs from 5 years ago was better at temp outputs. I was never this bad that I remember. 

The precip type modelling sure seems to have gotten a lot worse in the last three years or so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Erik! I miss you! I hate Trump now too!

[MossMan]

Who is this DeepFriedErik dude? He seems more annoying than me. 

Edited December 11, 2022 by MossMan

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Look, I get your sentiment and the work you put in for this community is admirable.  I'm sure analyzing maps that are essentially very expensive AI generated art pieces is exhausting.  It can feel like you're taking crazy pills with how different each 6 hour run is.

Everyone on here should be fine with other people being critical of bad models.  I don't really understand why that should/would be controversial.  Just like how people should be free to post Pepto maps and not be downvoted into oblivion.

I'm just not myself. There is a lot going on. I apologize for it. When I feel like that I should just head off it's not a delight to be around anyone's negativity, pessimism, or whatever else they have going on. It's something I need to sort out and deal with though before I can post like I usually do or enjoy things.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Who is this DeepFriedErik dude? He seems more annoying than me. 

A fixture in Marks blog comments. Originator of the Dome Theory. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I'm just not myself. There is a lot going on. I apologize for it. When I feel like that I should just head off it's not a delight to be around anyone's negativity, pessimism, or whatever else they have going on. It's something I need to sort out and deal with though before I can post like I usually do or enjoy things.

Aw. I thought you were just putting out ironic reverse-psychology.

I know you've been dealing with a lot lately, with ALS creeping into view and taking your family by storm. Hang in there. Better runs are coming--you've seen nothing yet!

[Terreboner]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A fixture in Marks blog comments. Originator of the Dome Theory. 

LOL.  The olden times.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A fixture in Marks blog comments. Originator of the Dome Theory. 

The lore to this forum is insane

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I'm just not myself. There is a lot going on. I apologize for it. When I feel like that I should just head off it's not a delight to be around anyone's negativity, pessimism, or whatever else they have going on. It's something I need to sort out and deal with though before I can post like I usually do or enjoy things.

We love you Rob. 

[Gradient Keeper]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Erik! I miss you! I hate Trump now too!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I'm just not myself. There is a lot going on. I apologize for it. When I feel like that I should just head off it's not a delight to be around anyone's negativity, pessimism, or whatever else they have going on. It's something I need to sort out and deal with though before I can post like I usually do or enjoy things.

Things will get better. We talked about this man. If you ever need anything or to talk send me a message.  

[Terreboner]

If my WWA gets upgraded to a WSW tonight I will mail DeepFriedEggs a personally signed "#MilwaukieDomeForLife" t-shirt.

[Requiem]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I'm just not myself. There is a lot going on. I apologize for it. When I feel like that I should just head off it's not a delight to be around anyone's negativity, pessimism, or whatever else they have going on. It's something I need to sort out and deal with though before I can post like I usually do or enjoy things.

Better runs ahead I think! Think cold and snow, remember?  I have faith things will get better. If you ever need to talk, my DMs are wide open.

[Meatyorologist]

Erik?? Milwaukee Dome Theory??? 2005 Rob???? W7ENK??!?? This place is wild, there's so much I don't know. Does anyone have like a wiki for all this? There's so much I want to learn

[Omegaraptor]

I can remain optimistic while admitting the GFS is overdoing cold. Probably worth noting PDX hasn't gotten below 20 in nearly six years. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

I can remain optimistic while admitting the GFS is overdoing cold. Probably worth noting PDX hasn't gotten below 20 in nearly six years. 

They will see single digits this winter.