PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Nov1985]

Last 2 ECMWF runs for the period of interest. 

[Kolk1604]

Day 7 

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

About 7 inches? 

[Snownerd3000]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I really like this run.  the PV gets close and we have that solid ridge bridge.  The ECMWF is just small tweaks away from a great run.

Didn't Judah post something about the PV moving west?

[Phishy Wx]

Arctic Blast>warming trend/snow/precip>january thaw(or cold reload)

 

something like that huh?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like a pretty good chance our high of 43 yesterday will end up the warmest of the month. Pretty incredible. 

PDX somehow avoided 50 yesterday, which I figured was a lock once I saw Aurora and Milwaukie with south winds and temps above 50 yesterday morning. Usually when that happens it’s just a matter of time. But the low level easterly flow from the Gorge won out.

That location (and mine) haven’t been above 50 degrees since 11/24, so we are now looking at a pretty long stretch, with the next 7-10 days at very least looking good to continue it. It’s only the 11th but a top end of 47 for the month of December would be pretty top tier for PDX. Out here the highest temp since Thanksgiving has only been 45.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

There has been some really good content from you this morning Andrew. Nice work.

I've regrouped from my minor weenie freakout the other day. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

PDX somehow avoided 50 yesterday, which I figured was a lock once I saw Aurora and Milwaukie with south winds and temps above 50 yesterday morning. Usually when that happens it’s just a matter of time. But the low level easterly flow from the Gorge won out.

That location (and mine) haven’t been above 50 degrees since 11/24, so we are now looking at a pretty long stretch, with the next 7-10 days at very least looking good to continue it. It’s only the 11th but a top end of 47 for the month of December would be pretty top tier for PDX. Out here the highest temp since Thanksgiving has only been 45.

The record lowest monthly max for December is 48 at PDX in 1985. If 47 ends up being their monthly max that'll also be cooler than any month besides January 1949

[Kolk1604]

Day 8 

 

[Doinko]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Day 8 

 

Not as great as the 00z but still definitely solid

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

About 7 inches? 

At least 10 Scruff inches.

[Deweydog]

Rain moving in from the EAST!

Tongan rules.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The monthly max here in November was 51, then we hit 50 on two other occasions. Looks like the max at the park was 53, which was 2 off the the record for coolest November monthly max. Looks like the lowest monthly max in December is 43 from 2016. Depending what the park ended up with yesterday, that could potentially still be in play. 

[lowlandsnow]

so far terrible control run 

[Kolk1604]

Day 9 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Not as great as the 00z but still definitely solid

If anything there's a bit more cold air in BC at day 8 on today's run. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

The record lowest monthly max for December is 48 at PDX in 1985. If 47 ends up being their monthly max that'll also be cooler than any month besides January 1949

I realized I made an error with my personal records since I hit 46 on 11/30. Still a very impressive sub-50 stretch in the works. 45 is my month to date high so far.

[Meatyorologist]

22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Ayahuasca shaman retreat, those are legal in OR now.

You can also order Mimosa bark and Syrian Rue legally to have the same wacky adventure in the comfort of your own home lmao

[Deweydog]

PDX didn’t see a 50 degree high from 11/22 to 12/21 in 2005. Didn’t get above 44 until 12/22 when they busted out with a Red Rocker 55.

[smerfylicious]

It's over 

[joelgombiner]

The week ahead looks dry! 

[DeepFriedEgg]

GFS is garbage, I think we are in good hands with the euro/EPS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

PDX didn’t see a 50 degree high from 11/22 to 12/21 in 2005. Didn’t get above 44 until 12/22 when they busted out with a Red Rocker 55.

Then they didn't see a high below 50 for the next six weeks. 

[Terreboner]

And harder...........

 

 

[Cloud]

Can’t even log into pivotal last couple of days let alone it being sluggish

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Terreboner said:

And harder...........

 

Massive overperforming snow event underway for you... Enjoy it!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Well the model riding will certainly be dramatic. Not expecting much but I’d love to be surprised.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Then they didn't see a high below 50 for the next six weeks. 

2005 but colder and snowier 4 longer.

[Meatyorologist]

How does the 12z EPS compare to its 00z run last night?

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Then they didn't see a high below 50 for the next six weeks. 

Wasn’t ALL bad… 44 for a high on 12/30 and only one high above 60, although it was Christmas…

[Terreboner]

It's getting deeper and deeper. Going to check my ruler in a few.

[RentonHill]

[Winterdog]

6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Can’t even log into pivotal last couple of days let alone it being sluggish

Same here.

[lowlandsnow]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

How does the 12z EPS compare to its 00z run last night?

Slightly worse

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Well I have certainly seen worse. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

It's getting deeper and deeper. Going to check my ruler in a few.

Awesome event for you man. With that wet snow you have to measure it every hr to get a true reading because of the way it compacts. If you measure a depth of 6 inches in reality you've probably had about 10 inches. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Slightly worse

Don't agree in the 8-10 day range.  Differences are really small (don't know about Oregon though), and there is a bit greater reservoir of the coldest air in BC.  

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

And harder...........

 

Could be seeing some subzero stuff this coming week with all that white stuff.

[Winterdog]

21 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Can’t even log into pivotal last couple of days let alone it being sluggish

Pivotal wrote back to me and said most of their customers are not having a problem.  They asked where I lived and I told them none of the forum members in the PNW region are able to pull up maps.  Hopefully they will get this resolved before we are buried in snow.