PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is actually a little farther south than its 06Z run... but quite a bit warmer and farther north than its 00Z run.

 

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

I feel like GFS has to be correct, unfortunately. It’s just the most realistic. I’m not looking forward to the moment Euro caves…

I mean last nights Euro was already a big shift toward the GFS. Not really understanding Tim’s obsession on this one. 

Edited December 14, 2022 by FroYoBro

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is digging the trough to the SW on Tuesday... could still work out similar to what the GEM showed last night.  

[Christensen87]

Yeah, Tuesday looks better. Hmmm…

[Nov1985]

Tue morning

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s an improvement.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

Yeah Tuesday looks nice. Hmmm…

Precip moves out before cold air can really move in on this run.    But that is pretty big shift on the 12Z GFS.     Details still evolving.

[Phishy Wx]

15 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Was supposed to be a mainly orographic event but trended stronger last night.

I suspect it's all the deep low level moisture here from a 6-12" snowpack locally.  Freezing Fog has been insane every night and most days it doesn't even scour out

[Brennan]

Seems to me like the GFS is starting to lock onto a solution for the Monday-Wednesday period... It's definitely not a region wide outbreak. There is going to be a battlezone between rain and snow, and it will probably be somewhere between the northern 1/4 of WA and Southern BC. Could be January 2011 all over again, or January 2012... Or December 1996. We're talking about a couple hundred miles making the difference between a once in a 25 year event or an average snow to rain event. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is actually a little farther south than its 06Z run... but quite a bit warmer and farther north than its 00Z run.

 

Yeah, this run is definitely colder than the most recent 06z run.  No comparison.

So maybe a slight cave to the Euro? Colder air going offshore like the Euro showed.

Trying to be optimistic here!!

[TT-SEA]

C-zone snowstorm for Seattle and the I-90 corridor by Wednesday morning.  

[Phishy Wx]

you dudes are obsessed with the GFS

[Brennan]

Block not pinching off as much. This could be better for the period leading up til Christmas... Frick I have no idea lol... Rain for even Whatcom County with the initial event with this though, which sucks. SW BC buried. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Trough already headed east by Wednesday morning. Never digs over us.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Yeah, this run is definitely colder than the most recent 06z run.  No comparison.

So maybe a slight cave to the Euro? Colder air going offshore like the Euro showed.

Trying to be optimistic here!!

Its really ironic that we now need to cheer for arctic air to dump out over the ocean because eventually its gets pushed into the PNW that way.    That is usually the kiss of death... but not in this case.

[Terreboner]

I know I will be watching 140/40 like a hawk this weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Here is the c-zone action late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning... definitely cold enough with temps in the 20s in Seattle at that time.

[Nov1985]

If you are going to claim Euro is moving towards GFS, don't you have to specify which GFS run? So much movement between runs compared to ECMWF for the period. Here's Wed morning GFS.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Seems to me like the GFS is starting to lock onto a solution for the Monday-Wednesday period... It's definitely not a region wide outbreak. There is going to be a battlezone between rain and snow, and it will probably be somewhere between the northern 1/4 of WA and Southern BC. Could be January 2011 all over again, or January 2012... Or December 1996. We're talking about a couple hundred miles making the difference between a once in a 25 year event or an average snow to rain event. 

Port angles and east is my guess for the battle zone. But like you say, 200 miles will be huge.

[Brennan]

12z GFS overall a dud. Shift the initial system south 150 miles. ONE TIME. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

lol.

[TT-SEA]

And you can already the beginning of a massive overrunning event by Wednesday afternoon.    This is actually not that far off from the 00Z ECMWF solution for later next week.    Models are narrowing in now it seems.

[Christensen87]

1 minute ago, Brennan said:

12z GFS overall a dud. Shift the initial system south 150 miles. ONE TIME. 

I feel like it’s definitely an improvement. 

[Brennan]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Port angles and east is my guess for the battle zone. But like you say, 200 miles will be huge.

Yeah.. 2012 line was pretty much Skagit County. Need a 50 mile shift south for a rerun.. 150 miles would make a lot of people happy.

[GobBluth]

GFS looks primed for a regionwide overrunning event late next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely an improvement on the GFS, GEM is a small step back for places further south. 

[TT-SEA]

High temps in the low 20s on Wednesday and in the teens that night as moisture is approaching... this is going to be huge.

[Brennan]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

I feel like it’s definitely an improvement. 

You are right. Definite improvement in terms of the blocking in Alaska, at least initially. I'm only out to Tuesday on Tidbits. 

[FroYoBro]

Ok, I suppose it’s more of a compromise between the GFS and Euro. Euro moved away from a faster/ strong push of immediate arctic air last night. GFS looks to have just trended to sending colder air in once the trough moves through early week. Obviously still a lot undecided. So an in between, less extreme version of what they were showing at yesterdays 12z. 

[Nov1985]

Thu morning

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gfs about ready to create a blizzard for thursday with that 1058h moving down into bc.

[yellowstone]

1 minute ago, Nov1985 said:

Thu morning

 

It really is all over the place but last 3 frames seem like maybe the trend we’ve been looking for?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cmc hammers the sound Tuesday.

[GobBluth]

Just now, Nov1985 said:

Thu morning

 

If we're looking at the bright side, the big pacific low is shooting over waves into the NW, but the ridge remains more stout.

[Christensen87]

Seems like a minor cave toward Euro? This is good. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

GEM is a Washington special

[Nov1985]

12z eight fitties

 

[yellowstone]

Really can’t wait to see a 0z vs 12z GEFS members snowfall forecast comparison

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

GEM is a Washington special

Starting to look like places south of Olympia are SOL.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Starting to look like places south of Olympia are SOL.

Yea, unless you like sleet and freezing rain.